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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1197754

核电厂退役市场——增长、趋势和预测 (2023-2028)

Nuclear Power Reactor Decommissioning Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecasts (2023 - 2028)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 125 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3个工作天内

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简介目录

到今年年底，全球核电站退役市场预计将达到 20.2749 亿美元，预计在预测期内将以 13.8% 的复合年增长率增长。

接受调查的市场受到 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行的中度影响，但正在恢復并达到大流行前的水平。

市场增长的主要驱动力是越来越多的核反应堆即将退役、可再生能源（例如风能和太阳能）价格下降以及对环境问题的敏感性越来越高。

但是，由于有利的政府政策而延长核电站的寿命预计会阻碍市场增长。

德国、英国和韩国等多个国家的核淘汰政策有望为国内外运营商创造机会，贡献发展退役市场所需的专业知识。

预计北美将成为核电厂退役增长最快的市场，使美国成为该地区主要的退役热点之一。

核动力反应堆退役的市场趋势

商业反应堆领域有望主导市场

截至 2022 年 10 月，在 32 个国家/地区共有 437 座商业核电站在运行。 美国拥有最大的核发电能力，核发电量也比其他国家大。 法国在核容量方面排名第二，在核发电方面排名第二。

商业核电站的关闭和退役涉及多个因素，包括经济、监管和社会因素。 几个主要因素降低了核能的成本竞争力，包括其运行寿命的结束以及太阳能和风能等替代能源发电成本的下降。 2011 年福岛核事故后，全球加强了核安全措施，导致与基础设施升级相关的额外成本以及运营和维护成本增加。 出于这个原因，许多老旧的商业反应堆运营商选择让使用寿命为 40 年并且可以通过基础设施升级再延长 20 年的老旧反应堆退役。

此外，世界各国政府在政策层面的努力导致了核电站的关闭。 许多政府计划减少其能源结构中的核电。 此类监管政策在西欧国家很常见，这些国家盛产可再生能源，对运营商业核电站的环境影响和潜在风险深表担忧。

德国计划根据其国家政策，到 2022 年底关闭所有核反应堆。 2017年，瑞士决定逐步淘汰该国的核电站。 2020 年 9 月，比利时政府签署了一项协议，重申其打算在 2025 年之前逐步淘汰核电。 西班牙已承诺到 2030 年关闭其七个运行中的商业反应堆中的四个，其余三个在未来五年内关闭，并在 2035 年之前完全淘汰核电。底部。

可再生能源技术的发展和经济的改善正在推动其大规模发展。 世界各国正在建设与可再生能源相关的庞大基础设施，这抵消了对核反应堆的需求。 核能正在被可再生能源取代，导致反应堆关闭。 因此，可再生能源开发的激增正在对全球核电站退役市场产生巨大的推动作用。

因此，由于上述因素，预计商用核反应堆将在预测期内主导所研究的市场。

北美有望实现显着增长

北美是世界上运行核反应堆数量最多的地区之一。 随着美国、加拿大和墨西哥的需求，核电厂退役市场预计将出现显着增长。

美国是最大的核电站之一，2021年占世界核发电量的30%。 2021 年中国核反应堆发电量为 778.15TWh，比 2020 年小幅下降 1.48%。

截至 2022 年 8 月，美国在 30 个州有 92 个核反应堆在运行，总容量为 94.7 GWe，由 30 个电力公司提供服务。 还有两个反应堆在建，总反应堆容量为2.23 GWe。

在美国，核电时代已经结束，核电站退役成为重要产业。 私营公司购买了这些工厂并接管了许可证、责任、退役资金、废物合同等。 约有 41 座总计 1997 万千瓦的核反应堆已关闭，最近关闭的是密歇根州的 Palisades 核电站，该电站于 2022 年 5 月关闭。 2021年12月，Holtec International收购了位于密歇根州Covert的Palisades核电站，并获得核管理委员会的退役和拆除批准。 预计到 2030 年将关闭约 198 个反应堆。

美国的核反应堆正在老化。 美国核管理委员会 (NRC) 正在考虑通过后续许可证更新 (SLR) 计划将运营许可证延长 60 至 80 年或更长时间的申请。 但最近，一些电厂业主选择了提前45-50岁退休。

低成本页岩气发电的激烈竞争削弱了国内核电行业的竞争力。 创纪录的低批发电价加上延长寿命 (PLEX) 升级的高成本正在推动核电站提前退役。

多年来，加拿大一直是核研究和技术的领导者，出口加拿大开发的核反应堆系统。 2021 年，加拿大核电站发电量为 92.6TWh，约占其总发电量的 15%。 2022 年 8 月，安大略省关闭了 19 座运行中的反应堆（总容量 13,624 兆瓦）和大约 6 座反应堆（总容量 2.14 兆瓦）。

截至 2022 年 8 月，加拿大拥有各种退役研究和原型动力反应堆。 这些反应堆处于安全储存状态，等待最终退役。 这些反应堆包括 WR-1、位于乔克河实验室 (CRL) 的 NRX 反应堆、位于 CRL 的 MAPLE-1 和 MAPLE-2（多用途应用物理晶格实验）反应堆，以及位于 QC 贝坎古特的 Gentilly 1 号核电站。位于安大略省罗尔夫顿的核电示范 (NPD) 反应堆和位于安大略省金卡丁的道格拉斯角核电站。 预计这些将在预测期内推动对加拿大核电站退役市场的需求。

因此，预计在预测期内，北美核电厂退役市场将出现显着增长。

核电厂退役市场竞争者分析

核电厂退役市场较为分散。 市场上的主要参与者（排名不分先后）是 Babcock International Group PLC、Fluor Corporation、GE Hitachi Nuclear Services、AECOM、Westinghouse Electric Company 等。

其他好处

  • Excel 格式的市场预测 (ME) 表
  • 三个月的分析师支持

内容

第一章介绍

  • 调查范围
  • 调查假设

第 2 章执行摘要

第三章研究方法论

第 4 章市场概述

  • 简介
  • 到 2027 年的市场规模和需求预测（单位：百万美元）
  • 到 2027 年的核能发电量预测 (TWh)
  • 近期趋势和发展
  • 市场动态
    • 司机
    • 约束因素
  • 供应链分析
  • 波特的五力分析
    • 供应商的议价能力
    • 消费者的议价能力
    • 新进入者的威胁
    • 替代品的威胁
    • 竞争公司之间的敌对关係

第 5 章市场细分

  • 按反应堆类型
    • 压水反应堆
    • 压水重水反应堆
    • 沸水反应堆
    • 高温气体反应堆
    • 液态金属快中子增殖反应堆
    • 其他反应堆
  • 通过使用
    • 商业动力反应堆
    • 用于发电的原型炉
    • 研究堆
  • 按容量
    • 100MW 或以下
    • 小于 100-1000 兆瓦
    • 1000MW 或更多
  • 按地区查看
    • 北美
    • 亚太地区
    • 欧洲
    • 南美洲
    • 中东

第六章竞争格局

  • 併购、合资、合作、协议
  • 主要参与者采用的策略
  • 公司简介
    • Babcock International Group PLC
    • James Fisher & Sons PLC
    • NorthStar Group Services Inc.
    • Fluor Corporation
    • GE Hitachi Nuclear Services
    • Studsvik AB
    • Enercon Services Inc.
    • Orano Group
    • Aecom
    • Bechtel Group Inc.
    • Westinghouse Electric Company

第7章 市场机会未来动向

简介目录
Product Code: 53210

The global nuclear power reactor decommissioning market is estimated to reach USD 2027.49 million by the end of the current year, and it is projected to register a CAGR of 13.8% during the forecast period.

Although the market studied was moderately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, it has been recovering and reached pre-pandemic levels.

The major factors driving the market's growth are the increasing number of nuclear reactors reaching operational retirement, declining prices of renewable power generation sources (i.e., wind and solar), and growing sensitivity toward environmental issues.

However, the lifetime extension of nuclear power plants with favorable government policies is expected to hinder the market's growth.

Nuclear phase-out policies in several countries, such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and South Korea, are expected to create opportunities for foreign and domestic players to provide the necessary expertise for the country's needs to develop their decommissioning market.

North America is expected to be the fastest-growing market for nuclear power reactor decommissioning, with the United States being one of the significant decommissioning hotspots in the region.

Nuclear Power Reactor Decommissioning Market Trends

Commercial Reactors Segment is Expected to Dominate the Market

As of October 2022, 437 commercial nuclear power plants were in operation across 32 countries. The United States had the largest nuclear electricity generation capacity and generated more nuclear electricity than any other country. France has the second-largest nuclear electricity generation capacity and second-highest nuclear electricity generation.

Several factors are responsible for the shutdown and decommissioning of commercial nuclear power plants, including economic, regulatory, and social factors. Some primary factors, such as the end of operational life and the fall in the cost of alternative energy generation sources, like solar and wind, made nuclear energy less cost-competitive. Following the Fukushima disaster of 2011, nuclear safety protocols have been upgraded across the world, which levied additional costs for the upgradation of infrastructure and increased operations and maintenance costs. Due to this, operators of many older commercial reactors, which have an operating life of 40 years and can be extended by 20 more years with infrastructural upgrades, are opting to decommission older units. ​

The policy-level initiatives from governments across the world have also led to the shutdown of nuclear power plants. The governments in many countries planned to reduce nuclear power in the energy mix of their countries. Such regulatory policies are prevalent among Western European states with a strong renewable portfolio and serious concerns about the environmental footprint and potential risk of operating commercial nuclear power plants. ​

As per its national policy, Germany plans to shut down all its reactors by the end of 2022. In 2017, Switzerland voted to phase-out nuclear power plants from the country. In September 2020, the Belgian government signed an agreement reaffirming its commitment to phasing-out nuclear power by 2025. Spain declared that it will close four of its seven operating commercial reactors by 2030 and close the rest three reactors within the next five years, completely phasing out nuclear generation by 2035. ​

The development of renewable energy technologies and increasing economic viability have led to its massive development. Countries across the world are creating huge infrastructures pertaining to renewable power, which has offset the requirement for nuclear reactors. Nuclear power generation is being replaced by renewable energy sources, which led to the closure of nuclear reactors. Therefore, the surge in the development of renewable energy sources is a big boost for the global nuclear reactor decommissioning market.​

Therefore, due to the aforementioned factors, commercial rectors are expected to dominate the market studied during the forecast period.

North America is Expected to Witness Significant Growth

North America is one of the largest regions in terms of operable reactors worldwide. The nuclear power reactor decommissioning market is expected to witness significant growth due to the demand from the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

The United States is one of the largest nuclear power producers, accounting for 30% of the global nuclear power generated in 2021. The country's nuclear reactors produced 778.15 TWh of electricity in 2021, representing a slight decline of 1.48% from 2020.

As of August 2022, the United States has 92 operating nuclear power reactors with a combined capacity of 94.7 GWe in 30 states, used by 30 different power companies. Two reactors are under construction with a total of 2.23 GWe.

As the era of nuclear power winds down in the United States, the decommissioning of nuclear power plants is becoming a significant industry. Private companies are acquiring these plants, taking over their licenses, liability, decommissioning funds, and waste contracts. Around 41 reactors with a combined capacity of 19.97 GW were shut down, the latest being the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan shut down in May 2022. In December 2021, HoltecInternational received approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to acquire the Palisades plant in Covert, Michigan, to decommission and dismantle the plant. Around 198 reactors are expected to shut down by 2030.

The nuclear reactor fleet of the United States is aging. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is considering applications for extending operating licenses beyond 60 to 80 years with its subsequent license renewal (SLR) program. However, some plant owners recently opted for early retirement of their nuclear units at 45 to 50 years old.

Intense competition from electricity generation using low-cost shale gas hurt the competitiveness of the nuclear power industry in the country. Record low wholesale electricity prices and the high cost of life extension (PLEX) upgrades have together driven early nuclear plant retirements.

For many years, Canada has been a leader in nuclear research and technology, exporting reactor systems developed in Canada. In 2021, Canada generated 92.6 TWh of electricity from nuclear power plants, accounting for about 15% of the total electricity generation mix. In Ontario, 19 operable reactors with a combined capacity of 13,624 MW and around six reactors with a combined capacity of 2.14 GW were shut down in August 2022.

As of August 2022, Canada has a variety of research and prototype power reactors that are no longer in use and have been shut down. These reactors are in a safe storage state and awaiting final decommissioning. Some of these reactors include the WR-1, the NRX reactor at Chalk River Laboratories (CRL), the MAPLE-1 and MAPLE-2 (Multipurpose Applied Physics Lattice Experiment) reactors at CRL, the Gentilly-1 nuclear generating station in Becancour, QC, the Nuclear Power Demonstration (NPD) reactor in Rolphton, ON, and the Douglas Point nuclear-generating station in Kincardine, ON. These are expected to drive the demand for the Canadian nuclear power reactor decommissioning market during the forecast period.

Therefore, North America is expected to witness significant growth in the nuclear power reactor decommissioning market during the forecast period.

Nuclear Power Reactor Decommissioning Market Competitor Analysis

The nuclear power reactor decommissioning market is moderately fragmented. Some of the major players in the market (in no particular order) are Babcock International Group PLC, Fluor Corporation, GE Hitachi Nuclear Services, AECOM, and Westinghouse Electric Company.

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Scope of Study
  • 1.2 Study Assumptions

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

4 MARKET OVERVIEW

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Market Size and Demand Forecast in USD million, till 2027
  • 4.3 Nuclear Power Generation Forecast in TWh, till 2027
  • 4.4 Recent Trends and Developments
  • 4.5 Market Dynamics
    • 4.5.1 Drivers
    • 4.5.2 Restraints
  • 4.6 Supply Chain Analysis
  • 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
    • 4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes Products and Services
    • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION

  • 5.1 By Reactor Type
    • 5.1.1 Pressurized Water Reactor
    • 5.1.2 Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor
    • 5.1.3 Boiling Water Reactor
    • 5.1.4 High-temperature Gas-cooled Reactor
    • 5.1.5 Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor
    • 5.1.6 Other Reactor Types
  • 5.2 By Application
    • 5.2.1 Commercial Power Reactor
    • 5.2.2 Prototype Power Reactor
    • 5.2.3 Research Reactor
  • 5.3 By Capacity
    • 5.3.1 Below 100 MW
    • 5.3.2 100-1000 MW
    • 5.3.3 Above 1000 MW
  • 5.4 By Geography
    • 5.4.1 North America
    • 5.4.2 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.4.3 Europe
    • 5.4.4 South America
    • 5.4.5 Middle East

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements
  • 6.2 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
  • 6.3 Company Profiles
    • 6.3.1 Babcock International Group PLC
    • 6.3.2 James Fisher & Sons PLC
    • 6.3.3 NorthStar Group Services Inc.
    • 6.3.4 Fluor Corporation
    • 6.3.5 GE Hitachi Nuclear Services
    • 6.3.6 Studsvik AB
    • 6.3.7 Enercon Services Inc.
    • 6.3.8 Orano Group
    • 6.3.9 Aecom
    • 6.3.10 Bechtel Group Inc.
    • 6.3.11 Westinghouse Electric Company

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS