CO2排放削减预测:MACC(边际减量成本曲线)

未来削减CO2排放量的可能性及各经济部门的成本将会如何？活用了Enerdata在该领域历经３０年的专业知识，及国际公认的POLES预测模式，Enenrdata提供可即时点阅长期MAC（边际减量成本）曲线的线上服务。

边际减量成本曲线（MACC）是表示某年、某个国家的某部门在不同的碳价格水准上可达成的降低排放量水准。这是基于完全明确化的基础情境所计算出来的。

MACC是政策决策者、研究者、以及商业分析师评估气候政策，预估其成本以及效率，及在进行EU ETS（EU排放权交易制度）等碳市场模拟时所使用的一个功能强大的工具。

MAC曲线的x轴为削减排放量，y轴为相关联的碳价值，而曲线的下方便是总削减成本。

Enerfuture服务中的MACC，是由POLES-Enerdata模式所产生，针对5个年份（2020年、2025年、2030年、2040年、以及2050年）、60个国家/地区、15个部门，提供2组对照基础情境。

■ 简介

• 长期边际减量成本(2020年、2025年、2030年、2040年、及2050年)
• 输出资料:配合碳价的CO2削减预测
• 网罗60个国家/地区
• 大规模部门的CO2排放量:电力、产业、运输、住宅服务、CO2整体排放量
• 各部门明细(选择):能源、产业燃烧、产业加工、住宅服务、运输
• 其他GHG(温室气体)-发电及产业产生:CH4、N2O、SF6、HFC、PFC
• 2个情境：復苏&不景气
• 由国际公认的POLES-Enerdata能源预测模式所产生

■主要的特征

• 1天24小时/每週7天的线上点阅
• 英文介面
• 明确的建模方式
• 情境别前提条件的传达
• 定期更新
• 在资料支援上可连络Enerdata的专家

■主要优势

• 可以得到国际公认数一数二的MACC专家所选的资料及见解
• 可受惠于稳固且可靠的POLES模式

■调查对象地区/国家

能源需求与CO2排放的各地区预测
欧洲	南北美洲	亚洲	非洲/中东	独立国协
欧洲 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27 波罗的海三小国	北美 南美 中美•加勒比海各国 南美	亚洲 南亚 (印度以外) 东南亚 (中国，印尼，韩国，日本以外) OECD太平洋各国	非洲 北非 撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲 (南非以外) 中东 波湾国家 地中海各国 (波湾国家以外)	独立国协

能源需求，价格及CO2排放量的各国预测
欧洲	南北美洲	亚洲	非洲/中东	独立国协
奥地利 比利时 保加利亚 克罗埃西亚 捷克 丹麦 芬兰 法国 德国 希腊 匈牙利 爱尔兰 义大利 荷兰 挪威 波兰 葡萄牙 罗马尼亚 斯洛伐克 斯洛维尼亚 西班牙 瑞典 瑞士 土耳其 英国	巴西 加拿大 墨西哥 美国	澳洲 中国 印度 印尼 日本 韩国	埃及 (无价格预测) 阿尔及利亚 - 利比亚 摩洛哥 - 突尼西亚 南非	俄罗斯 乌克兰 (无价格预测)

Assess future emission reduction potentials and costs across economic sectors

A unique service for GHG Marginal Abatement Cost Curves

Enerdata uses its 30 years of forecasting expertise and globally recognised POLES Model to create a unique online service offering instant access to long-term Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs).

MACCs reflect the different levels of emission reductions that can be reached at various carbon price levels at a given year, by country and by sector. All MACCs are derived from comprehensive baseline scenarios, which can be chosen among contrasted variants. Enerdata MACCs are being used around the world by major governmental bodies, energy companies and industries for international climate negotiations.

Why Subscribe?

• Unique insight and comprehensive data from recognised MACCs experts worldwide

• Based on the time-tested and reputable POLES Model

• 24/7 online access

• Unlimited Excel export

• Regular updates

Service Overview

• Long-term Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) produced for four base years (2025, 2030, 2035, 2050)

• MACCs generated by the globally recognised POLES Model

• 65+ countries/regions covered

• GHG emissions by sector aggregates: power, industry, transport, residential & services and total overview

• 15 sub-sectors covered: energy, steel, chemistry, industry processes, households, tertiary, etc.

• Output data: projected CO2/non-CO2 reductions according to carbon prices

• Baseline Scenarios relying on selected EnerFuture reference scenarios

• Modelling methodology included

• To go beyond MACCs, drill down to detailed technological options though our AERO optional module

Who Needs MACCs?

MACCs is a very powerful tool used by policy makers, researchers and business analysts to assess climate policies, evaluate their costs and efficiency as well as to simulate carbon markets such as the EU ETS.

• Government Agencies: To shape CO2 mitigation policies and set targets

• Energy Companies: To evaluate future revenues versus carbon constraints

• Industry: To formulate strategies for carbon trading & emission reductions

• Energy Traders: To evaluate CO2 emission credits, prices and volumes

Online Interface

MACCs Sector Options

Enerdata's EnerFuture service generates MACCs using the POLES-Enerdata Model, they are available for four time periods (2025, 2030, 2035 and 2050), 69 countries/regions, 15 sectors and three contrasted baseline scenarios.

Option 1: AGGREGATED Sectors (CO2)

• Energy
• Industry combustion
• Industry processes
• Residential and services
• Transport

Option 2: DETAILED Sub-Sectors (CO2)

• Power generation, other energy Transformation
• Steel, non-metallic minerals, chemistry, other industry
• Households, tertiary, agriculture
• Road, air, other transport

The additional data series for each country/region covers non-CO2 GHGs: CH4, N2O, SF6 , HFCs and PFCs.

Methodology

On a MAC Curve, the X-axis represents the emissions reduction, the Y-axis the associated carbon value; the area under the curve is the resulting total abatement cost.

Need Further Insight? Enerdata GHG Mitigation Toolbox

If you need a more integrated view of future markets, Enerdata offers the GHG Mitigation Toolbox as a consulting service. Using a variety of tools, Enerdata is able to employ its MACCs in order to generate market outlooks for the advanced stages of your organisation's carbon reduction strategy and implementation process.

• EVALUATE model - Economic Valuation for Trading Emissions: Analytical tools allowing simulating countries' pledges for emission reductions. User enters pledges and the tool provides powerful indicators (e.g. reductions, emission intensity, total costs, marginal costs, global emissions, gap to IPCC scenarios, ...)

• CMT model: Carbon Market Tool: Detailed analysis (by country and by sector) of existing and fictive carbon markets worldwide. Provides multiple design options for carbon market configurations and produces the resulting carbon price in each market up to 2050.

• AERO model: Abatement Effort, Reduction Options: Help identifying technological options that will develop under a carbon price (or emissions cap). Used by private companies to highlight market opportunities and by governments to analyse NAMAs and INDCs.