电动飞机和 eVTOL 的未来愿景

预计 2021 年至 2050 年间，全球电动飞机和 eVTOL（商用和私人）市场将达到 2720 亿欧元至 7250 亿欧元。

在本报告中，我们分析了全球电动飞机和 eVTOL（电动垂直起降）市场，概述了技术、预期用途、未来技术发展、基础设施/监管发展和市场发展潜力。 20 家主要製造商、许可流程和对安全问题的回应、未来市场预测和情景分析（至 2050 年）。

内容

第一章介绍

• 航空市场
• 电动飞机的概念
• 飞机电气化和 eVTOL 的驱动因素
  • 降低成本
  • 当地旅游市场
  • 减排
  • 降噪
  • 改善可访问性
  • 经济发展

第 2 章电动飞机和 eVTOL

• 电动飞机
  • 改造
  • 传统设计
  • 全新设计
  • 尺寸和范围
  • 电池型和氢气型
• eVTOL（电动垂直起降飞机）
  • 无翼多旋翼飞行器
  • 固定翼
  • 倾斜的机翼和/或螺旋桨
• eVTOL 的风险评估
  • 身份验证
  • 基础设施
  • 技术
  • 运营
  • 公众意识

第 3 章技术概述

• 电池
• 氢气
• 飞机
• 通信技术和自主飞行
  • 导航/通讯系统
  • 物联网连接
  • 自主飞行之路

第 4 章生态系统和监管框架

• 生态系统
  • 充电
  • 电池电源:挑战
  • 氢能:挑战
  • 起飞和降落基础设施
  • 机场基础设施
  • MRO（维护、修理、大修）
• 监管框架
  • 认证和标准化
  • 安全
  • 空域管理
  • 可持续性

第 5 章区域空中交通和城市空中交通

• 区域空中交通:可行的市场开发和使用案例
  • 市场将如何演变:各种情景
  • 用户体验
• 城市空中交通:可行的市场开发和使用案例
  • 市场将如何演变:各种情景
  • 用户体验
• 对区域和城市规划的影响
  • 教育
  • 授权
  • 短期城市规划
  • 长期城市规划
  • 区域规划
  • 交通规划与整合

第 6 章公司概况和战略

• 飞机
  • Bye Aerospace
  • Eviation
  • Heart Aerospace
  • MagniX
  • Pipistrel
  • Universal Hydrogen
  • Wright Electric
  • ZeroAvia
• eVTOL
  • Archer
  • Beta Technologies
  • CityAirbus NextGen
  • EHang
  • Eve Air Mobility
  • Joby Aviation
  • Lilium
  • Supernal
  • Volocopter
  • XPeng (AeroHT)
  • Vertical Aerospace
  • Wisk

第 7 章市场预测和情景

• 市场细分
• 市场规模
  • 商用电动垂直起降
  • 私人 eVTOL
  • 电动飞机
  • 当前的电动 eVTOL 和飞机订单积压
  • 物联网连接
• 市场价格
• 商业模式和用例
• 结论
• 首字母缩略词列表

How will the market for electric aircraft and eVTOLs evolve in the next 30 years? The total market value of electric aircraft and eVTOLs (commercial and private use) during the time period 2021-2050 is forecasted to reach in the range of € 272-725 billion. Get up to date with the latest information about vendors, technology developments, regulations and markets.

Highlights from the report:

• Insights from numerous executive interviews with market leading companies.

• Comprehensive description of the electric aircraft and eVTOL value chain and key use cases.

• Analysis of the ground infrastructure needed and how eVTOLs will be handled in the airspace.

• In-depth analysis of market trends and key developments.

• Profiles of 20 electric aircraft and eVTOL manufacturers.

• Summary of the certification process and handling of safety concerns.

• Market forecasts and scenario analysis lasting until 2050.

Table of Contents

• Table of Contents
• Table of Contents
• List of Figures
• Executive Summary

1. Introduction

• 1.1. The aviation market
• 1.2. The concept of electric aviation
• 1.3. Drivers behind electrification of aircraft and eVTOLs
  • 1.3.1. Reduced costs
  • 1.3.2. Regional travel market
  • 1.3.3. Emissions reductions
  • 1.3.4. Noise reductions
  • 1.3.5. Increased accessibility
  • 1.3.6. Economic development

2. Electric Aircraft and eVTOLs

• 2.1. Electric aircraft
  • 2.1.1. Retrofit
  • 2.1.2. Traditional design
  • 2.1.3. New design
  • 2.1.4. Size versus range
  • 2.1.5. Battery versus hydrogen
• 2.2. eVTOLs
  • 2.2.1. Wingless multicopter
  • 2.2.2. Fixed wing
  • 2.2.3. Tilted wing and/or propellers
• 2.3. Risk assessment regarding eVTOLs
  • 2.3.1. Certification
  • 2.3.2. Infrastructure
  • 2.3.3. Technology
  • 2.3.4. Operations
  • 2.3.5. Public awareness

3. Technology Overview

• 3.1. Batteries
• 3.2. Hydrogen
• 3.3. Airframes
• 3.4. Communications technology and autonomous flight
  • 3.4.1. Navigation and communications systems
  • 3.4.2. IoT connectivity
  • 3.4.3. A possible pathway to autonomous flights

4. Ecosystem and Regulatory Framework

• 4.1. Ecosystem
  • 4.1.1. Charging
  • 4.1.2. Battery power - challenges
  • 4.1.3. Hydrogen power - challenges
  • 4.1.4. Take off and landing infrastructure
  • 4.1.5. Airport infrastructure
  • 4.1.6. MRO
• 4.2. Regulatory framework
  • 4.2.1. Certification and standardisation
  • 4.2.2. Safety
  • 4.2.3. Airspace management
  • 4.2.4. Sustainability

5. Regional Air Mobility and Urban Air Mobility

• 5.1. Regional Air Mobility - possible market development and use cases
  • 5.1.1. How will the market evolve - different scenarios
  • 5.1.2. User experience
• 5.2. Urban Air Mobility - possible market development and use cases
  • 5.2.1. How will the market evolve - different scenarios
  • 5.2.2. User experience
• 5.3. Implications for regional and city planning
  • 5.3.1. Education
  • 5.3.2. Permits
  • 5.3.3. Short term city planning
  • 5.3.4. Long term city planning
  • 5.3.5. Regional planning
  • 5.3.6. Transport planning and integration

6. Company Profiles and Strategies

• 6.1. Aircraft
  • 6.1.1. Bye Aerospace
  • 6.1.2. Eviation
  • 6.1.3. Heart Aerospace
  • 6.1.4. MagniX
  • 6.1.5. Pipistrel
  • 6.1.6. Universal Hydrogen
  • 6.1.7. Wright Electric
  • 6.1.8. ZeroAvia
• 6.2. eVTOLs
  • 6.2.1. Archer
  • 6.2.2. Beta Technologies
  • 6.2.3. CityAirbus NextGen
  • 6.2.4. EHang
  • 6.2.5. Eve Air Mobility
  • 6.2.6. Joby Aviation
  • 6.2.7. Lilium
  • 6.2.8. Supernal
  • 6.2.9. Volocopter
  • 6.2.10. XPeng (AeroHT)
  • 6.2.11. Vertical Aerospace
  • 6.2.12. Wisk

7. Market Forecasts and Scenarios

• 7.1. Market segmentation
• 7.2. Market size
  • 7.2.1. Commercial eVTOLs
  • 7.2.2. Privately owned eVTOLs
  • 7.2.3. Electric aircraft
  • 7.2.4. The current electric eVTOL and aircraft order stock
  • 7.2.5. IoT Connectivity
• 7.3. Market value
• 7.4. Business models and use cases
• 7.5. Concluding remarks

• List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Figures

• Figure 1.1: IATA strategy towards net zero
• Figure 2.1: Example of a retrofit design
• Figure 2.2: Example of a traditional design
• Figure 2.3: Example of a new design
• Figure 2.4: Linear and nodal transportation networks
• Figure 2.5: Example of wingless multicopter design
• Figure 2.6: Example of fixed wing design
• Figure 2.7: Example of tilted propeller design
• Figure 3.1: Schematic of electric propulsion concepts
• Figure 3.2: Schematic of energy efficiency for electric and fuel cell propulsion
• Figure 3.3: Potential range for battery all-electric aircraft
• Figure 4.1: The ecosystem of advanced air mobility
• Figure 4.2: Examples of vertiport designs
• Figure 4.3: Commercial certification of electric aircraft (forecast)
• Figure 4.4: Commercial certification of piloted eVTOL (forecast)
• Figure 4.5: Sensor technologies to be used by eVTOLs
• Figure 4.6: eVTOL Control Centre
• Figure 5.1: Potential market for different vehicles
• Figure 5.2: Example of range and use cases for regional air mobility
• Figure 5.3: Commercial implementation steps
• Figure 5.4: Examples of potential eVTOL use cases
• Figure 6.1: Number of global eVTOL projects
• Figure 6.2: eFlyer 800 specifications
• Figure 6.3: Eviation Alice specifications
• Figure 6.4: Heart ES-30 specifications
• Figure 6.5: Magni 350 EPU and Magni 650 EPU specifications
• Figure 6.6: Pipistrel Velis Electro specifications
• Figure 6.7: Roadmap regarding drivetrain
• Figure 6.8: Archer eVTOL vehicle specifications
• Figure 6.9: Beta Alia specifications
• Figure 6.10: CityAirbus NextGen specifications
• Figure 6.11: EH216 and VT-30 specifications
• Figure 6.12: Eve eVTOL vehicle specifications
• Figure 6.13: Joby S4 specifications
• Figure 6.14: Lilium Jet specifications
• Figure 6.15: S-A1 specifications
• Figure 6.16: VoloCity and VoloConnect specifications
• Figure 6.17: X2 specifications
• Figure 6.18: VX4 specifications
• Figure 6.19: Wisk eVTOL vehicle specifications
• Figure 7.1: Passenger aircraft timeline
• Figure 7.2: eVTOL timeline
• Figure 7.3: Shipments of eVTOLs (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.4: Shipments of privately owned eVTOLs (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.5: Shipments of electric aircraft (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.6: Connected vehicles in commercial and private use (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.7: Commercial eVTOL market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.8: Private eVTOL market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.9: Electric aircraft market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.10: Electric aircraft market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.11: Use case: eVTOL vertiport in a small city
• Figure 7.12: Use case: eVTOL vertiport in a dense urban area
• Figure 7.13: Use case: Regional airport/airfield - an initial scenario