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全球蓝氨市场 - 2023-2030

Global Blue Ammonia Market - 2023-2030

出版日期: 2024年02月09日 | 出版商:

DataM Intelligence | 英文 180 Pages | 商品交期: 约2个工作天内

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简介目录

概述

2022年，全球蓝氨市场规模达23亿美元，预计2030年将达到767亿美元，2023-2030年预测期间CAGR为55.2%。

钢铁生产、工业电力供热和重型道路运输等重污染行业脱碳的持续努力将为全球蓝氨市场提供新的成长途径。蓝氨是原油和煤炭等化石燃料的有用低碳替代品。

全球蓝氨市场的长期成长潜力因商业获利能力相关的挑战而受到阻碍。由于担心成本上升和无法实现收支平衡，世界各地的一系列重大项目已被取消。解决获利能力将是维护全球市场长期成长的关键挑战。

动力学

越来越多的人转向氢经济

近年来，脱碳已成为全球能源产业的一大趋势。然而，儘管短期内不可能完全淘汰化石燃料，但各国政府和能源公司正在逐步开发和成熟替代能源。受到越来越多关注的此类来源之一是氢气。

各国政府已经推出激励措施来发展和扩大新兴的氢经济。例如，在 2023 年联盟预算中，印度政府拨款 1,974 亿卢比（16.4 亿美元）用于发展国家氢能任务。

逐步转向氢经济的资金和激励措施的增加将为蓝氨市场的成长提供重大推动力。它将激励开发具有成本效益的氢气生产技术，从而降低蓝氨的生产成本并增加其在各个行业的采用。

对提高农业生产力的需求不断增长

联合国 (UN) 估计 2022 年全球人口约为 80 亿，自 2010 年以来增加了近 10 亿。全球人口的快速增长给满足全球粮食需求的农业资源带来了压力。全球农业部门正面临各种挑战，包括极端天气事件的增加和耕地的减少。

在全球范围内，农民面临各种资源限制，例如水资源短缺、肥料供应有限和环境问题。提高生产力使农民能够用更少的资源获得更多的产出。明智地使用化学肥料可以帮助农民大幅提高生产力。

蓝氨能够以具成本效益的规模大规模生产化肥，有助于缓解提高农业生产力的挑战。因此，提高农业生产力将为全球蓝氨市场提供新的成长机会。

蓝氨生产成本高

儘管政府和能源公司越来越支持，蓝氨在全面商业化方面仍然面临重大挑战。商业生产的高成本就是这样的挑战之一。天然气是蓝氨生产最重要的原料，天然气价格的波动是整体成本考量的主要因素。

随着更多新产能投产，从长远来看，整体生产成本预计将下降，从而增加蓝氨的采用。但短期内，蓝氨市场因成本较高而陷入困境，无法与其他常规能源竞争。这将阻碍全球市场的短期成长前景。

The ongoing efforts to decarbonize heavily polluting industries such as iron and steel production, industrial power heating and heavy road transport will provide new growth avenues for the global blue ammonia market. Blue ammonia is a useful low-carbon alternative to fossil fuels such as crude oil and coal.

The long term growth potential for the global blue ammonia market is hobbled by challenges related to commercial profitability. A string of major projects across the world have been cancelled due to concerns over mounting costs and failure to break even. Solving profitability will be a key challenge in safeguarding the long term growth of the global market.

Dynamics

Increasing Moves Towards a Hydrogen Economy

Decarbonization has become a major trend among the global energy industry over the past few years. However, although it is impossible to completely phase out fossil fuels over the short term, governments and energy companies are gradually making moves towards developing and maturing alternative energy sources. One such source that has received increased attention is hydrogen.

Governments are already rolling out incentives to develop and expand a nascent hydrogen economy. For instance, in the union budget 2023, the Indian government has allocated an outlay of ₹ 197.4 billion (US$ 1.64 billion) for the development of the national hydrogen mission.

The increase in funding and incentives for a gradual move towards a hydrogen economy would provide a major boost to the growth of the blue ammonia market. It will incentivize the development of cost effective hydrogen production technologies, which in turn, will lower production costs for blue ammonia and increase its adoption across various industries.

Rising Demand for Improved Agricultural Productivity

The United Nations (UN) has estimated the global population at around 8.0 billion in 2o22, representing an increase of nearly 1 billion since 2010. A rapid growth in global population has put stress on agricultural resources to satisfy global food demands. The global agricultural sector is experiencing various challenges, including rise of extreme weather events and loss of arable land.

Globally, farmers face various resource constraints, such as water scarcity, limited availability of fertilizers and environmental concerns. Increasing productivity allows farmers to achieve more output with fewer resources. Judicious utilization of chemical fertilizers can help farmers to achieve a major increase in productivity.

Blue ammonia can enable the large-scale production of chemical fertilizer at cost-effective scale, thus contributing towards alleviating the challenge of raising agricultural productivity. The drive to raise agricultural productivity will thus offer new growth opportunities for the global blue ammonia market.

High Cost of Blue Ammonia Production

Despite growing endorsements from governments and energy companies, blue ammonia still faces significant challenges to full-scale commercialization. The high cost of commercial production is one such challenge. Natural gas is the most important feedstock material for blue ammonia production and the fluctuations in natural gas prices is a major factor in overall cost considerations.

As more new capacity comes online, the overall production costs are expected to go down over the long term, thus increasing adoption of blue ammonia. However, over the short term, blue ammonia market has been bested with relatively high costs and is unable to compete with other conventional forms of energy. It will hamper the short-term growth prospects of the global market.

Segment Analysis

The global blue ammonia market is segmented based on technology, application and region.

Steam Methane Reforming Still Remains the Most Popular Production Technology

Steam methane reforming remains the most popular technology for blue ammonia production, mainly due to its cost effectiveness and energy efficiency. The process yields a very high purity of hydrogen, making it suitable for use in fuel cells and industrial feedstock applications. Most of the modern, high-capacity blue ammonia production facilities utilize steam methane reforming as a production technology.

The other technologies, namely, gas partial oxidation and autothermal reforming are much more intricate and energy intensive. As such, these technologies are not cost-effective for large scale production and hence are typically not used in commercial blue hydrogen production facilities. The only major purpose of these technologies is for hydrogen and ammonia production for niche applications.

Geographical Penetration

With Numerous New Projects, North America Garners Top Position

North America is expected to have the highest share within the global blue ammonia market since it has the some of the largest projects currently under construction. Most of the major energy companies are based in U.S and the current focus on blue ammonia is part of a larger strategy to make North America, especially U.S., a major export hub for hydrogen and blue ammonia.

Several new blue ammonia production facilities are in various stages of construction. For instance, in January 2024, INPEX Corporation, a Japanese multinational company signed an agreement with LSB Industries, a U.S.-based chemicals manufacturer, to construct a blue ammonia production and export facility in U.S. Gulf Coast.

However, despite promising developments, the market still has a series of challenges. For instance, in August 2023, Nutrien, a major U.S.-based fertilizer manufacturer, shelved plans for a 1.2 million ton capacity blue ammonia production facility in U.S. due to escalating costs and growing concerns about its profitability.

COVID-19 Impact Analysis

A major challenge for the global blue ammonia market emerged during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic was the crash in global crude oil prices. As aviation and road transportation activities fell drastically, the collapse in demand led to a major decrease in crude oil prices. The massive decrease in crude oil prices temporarily made blue ammonia uncompetitive. Furthermore, capital investment in expanding blue ammonia production capacity also decreased due to the economic uncertainty of the pandemic period.

The difficult market conditions also created many problems for energy companies looking to diversify into blue ammonia production. Tightening supplies of various precursor materials to pandemic induced supply chain disruptions delayed the operationalization of various completed blue ammonia production facilities. The overall situation has improved considerably in the post-pandemic period and the industry has witnessed a surge in new investments.

Russia-Ukraine War Impact Analysis

The Russia-Ukraine war may have led to long-term irreversible changes to Europe's energy landscape. Although the war did cause major short-term volatility in global energy markets and led to the disruption of natural gas supplies due to severe economic sanctions on Russia, European nations have moved rapidly to phase out Russian energy imports. As such, an accelerated shift towards new energy sources has boosted the overall growth prospects of the blue ammonia market in Europe.

The most direct impact has been on the local blue ammonia markets in Russia. The economic sanctions on Russia have led to cessation of western parts and technology for local blue ammonia projects. In April 2022, Novatek, one of Russia's largest energy companies, cancelled its ongoing blue ammonia project citing a lack of access to technology and difficult market conditions. The Ukraine-Russia war is likely to boost the long-term growth prospects of the global blue ammonia market, especially in Europe.

By Technology

Steam Methane Reforming
Autothermal Reforming
Gas Partial Oxidation

By Application

Transportation
Power Generation
Industrial Feedstock
Others

By Region

North America
- U.S.
- Canada
- Mexico
Europe
- Germany
- UK
- France
- Italy
- Spain
- Rest of Europe
South America
- Brazil
- Argentina
- Rest of South America
Asia-Pacific
- China
- India
- Japan
- Australia
- Rest of Asia-Pacific
Middle East and Africa

Key Developments

In April 2023, Matexcel, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil and gas conglomerate flagged off its first shipment of blue ammonia to Japan. Aramco produced blue ammonia through feedstock produced by SABIC, the Saudi Arabian fertilizer manufacturer. The cargo was sold to Japan's Fuji Oil trading company.
In March 2023, Linde, a European multinational manufacturer of industrial gases announced the signing of a new agreement with OCI, a multinational distributor of hydrogen products, to supply hydrogen for OCI's new blue ammonia facility in Texas, U.S.
In March 2023, Mitsui and Co. Ltd, a Japanese multinational conglomerate operating across diversified sectors, announced a collaborative partnership with CF Industrial Holdings, Inc. to jointly develop a new blue ammonia production facility in U.S.

Competitive Landscape

The major global players in the market include Yara International ASA, Saudi Arabian Oil Co., OCI, CF Industries Holdings, Inc., QAFCO, ExxonMobil Corporation, Linde, Shell plc, Uniper SE and ADNOC Group.

Why Purchase the Report?

To visualize the global blue ammonia market segmentation based on technology, application, end-user and region, as well as understand key commercial assets and players.
Identify commercial opportunities by analyzing trends and co-development.
Excel data sheet with numerous data points of pouch tapes market-level with all segments.
PDF report consists of a comprehensive analysis after exhaustive qualitative interviews and an in-depth study.
Product mapping available as excel consisting of key products of all the major players.

The global blue ammonia market report would provide approximately 49 tables, 39 figures and 180 Pages.

Target Audience 2023

Energy Companies
Fertilizer Manufacturers
Industry Investors/Investment Bankers
Research Professionals

1. Methodology and Scope

1.1. Research Methodology
1.2. Research Objective and Scope of the Report

2. Definition and Overview

3. Executive Summary

3.1. Snippet by Technology
3.2. Snippet by Application
3.3. Snippet by Region

4. Dynamics

4.1. Impacting Factors
- 4.1.1. Drivers
  - 4.1.1.1. Increasing moves towards a hydrogen economy
  - 4.1.1.2. Rising demand for improved agricultural productivity
- 4.1.2. Restraints
  - 4.1.2.1. High cost of blue ammonia production
- 4.1.3. Opportunity
- 4.1.4. Impact Analysis

5. Industry Analysis

5.1. Porter's Five Force Analysis
5.2. Supply Chain Analysis
5.3. Pricing Analysis
5.4. Regulatory Analysis
5.5. Russia-Ukraine War Impact Analysis
5.6. DMI Opinion

6. COVID-19 Analysis

6.1. Analysis of COVID-19
- 6.1.1. Scenario Before COVID
- 6.1.2. Scenario During COVID
- 6.1.3. Scenario Post COVID
6.2. Pricing Dynamics Amid COVID-19
6.3. Demand-Supply Spectrum
6.4. Government Initiatives Related to the Market During Pandemic
6.5. Manufacturers Strategic Initiatives
6.6. Conclusion

7. By Technology

7.1. Introduction
- 7.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
- 7.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By Technology
7.2. Steam Methane Reforming*
- 7.2.1. Introduction
- 7.2.2. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%)
7.3. Autothermal Reforming
7.4. Gas Partial Oxidation

8. By Application

8.1. Introduction
- 8.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
- 8.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By Application
8.2. Transportation*
- 8.2.1. Introduction
- 8.2.2. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%)
8.3. Power Generation
8.4. Industrial Feedstock
8.5. Others

9. By Region

9.1. Introduction
- 9.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Region
- 9.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By Region
9.2. North America
- 9.2.1. Introduction
- 9.2.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
- 9.2.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
- 9.2.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
- 9.2.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
  - 9.2.5.1. U.S.
  - 9.2.5.2. Canada
  - 9.2.5.3. Mexico
9.3. Europe
- 9.3.1. Introduction
- 9.3.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
- 9.3.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
- 9.3.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
- 9.3.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
  - 9.3.5.1. Germany
  - 9.3.5.2. UK
  - 9.3.5.3. France
  - 9.3.5.4. Italy
  - 9.3.5.5. Spain
  - 9.3.5.6. Rest of Europe
9.4. South America
- 9.4.1. Introduction
- 9.4.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
- 9.4.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
- 9.4.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
- 9.4.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
  - 9.4.5.1. Brazil
  - 9.4.5.2. Argentina
  - 9.4.5.3. Rest of South America
9.5. Asia-Pacific
- 9.5.1. Introduction
- 9.5.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
- 9.5.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
- 9.5.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
- 9.5.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
  - 9.5.5.1. China
  - 9.5.5.2. India
  - 9.5.5.3. Japan
  - 9.5.5.4. Australia
  - 9.5.5.5. Rest of Asia-Pacific
9.6. Middle East and Africa
- 9.6.1. Introduction
- 9.6.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
- 9.6.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
- 9.6.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
- 9.6.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User

10. Competitive Landscape

10.1. Competitive Scenario
10.2. Market Positioning/Share Analysis
10.3. Mergers and Acquisitions Analysis

11. Company Profiles

11.1. Yara International ASA*
- 11.1.1. Company Overview
- 11.1.2. Product Portfolio and Description
- 11.1.3. Financial Overview
- 11.1.4. Key Developments
11.2. Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
11.3. OCI
11.4. CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
11.5. QAFCO
11.6. ExxonMobil Corporation
11.7. Linde
11.8. Shell plc
11.9. Uniper SE
11.10. ADNOC Group

LIST NOT EXHAUSTIVE