市场调查报告书
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1542970
全球小型模组化反应器市场 - 2024-2031Global Small Modular Reactor Market - 2024-2031 |
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报告概述
2023年,全球小型模组化反应器市场规模为57.2亿美元,预计2031年将达到64.8亿美元,在预测期内(2024-2031年)复合年增长率为1.6%。
国际原子能总署 (IAEA) 解释称,小型发电量为 300 MWe 以下,中发电量高达 700 MWe,其中包括几个二十世纪的活跃机组。国际原子能总署(IAEA)称之为中小型反应器(SMR)。然而,「SMR」最常被用作小型模组化反应器的缩写,这是一种为串行建造而建造的核反应堆,用于组成大型核电站。
对于 15 MWe 以下的机组,人们提出了一种称为 vSMR 的小型反应器子类型,特别是针对农村人口。小型模组化反应器 (SMR) 是采用模组化技术建造的输出功率为 300 MWe 或以下的核反应堆,并在模组工厂中建造,以实现节省成本和快速建造时间。
世界核能协会的定义是基于国际原子能总署和美国核能研究所的定义。压水炉可能配有内置蒸汽发生器,这需要更大的反应器压力容器,限制了从工厂到现场的运输。因此,许多大型压水堆都使用外部蒸汽发生器,例如劳斯莱斯英国 SMR。
核电的灵活性和可靠性以及能源脱碳的净零目标将推动市场发展。然而,对小型模组化反应器部署的严格规定预计将阻碍市场成长。
核电的灵活性和可靠性
核能的适应性可能使过渡到更清洁的地球和更强大的全球经济成为可能。近几十年来,清洁能源经历了显着的创新和成本降低。近十年来,太阳能光电、风电、水力、可调度地热能(深层和浅层)、生质能、聚光太阳能和碳捕获化石能源都取得了重大技术和经济进步。
核能具有与各种其他能源协同结合的潜力,形成的综合系统大于其各个部分的总和。根据国际原子能总署 2019 年 10 月参加气候变迁和核电作用国际会议的成员国的说法,小型模组反应器可能是取代老化化石燃料发电厂的最有效的无二氧化碳电力来源。可能是取代老化的化石燃料发电厂的最有效的无二氧化碳电力来源。
取代旧的化石燃料发电厂的能力以及混合核能和可再生能源等替代能源的协同混合能源系统的潜力正在推动此类反应器的发展。随着各大洲间歇性可再生能源比例的增长,中小型反应器是一种很有前景的替代方案,可与可再生能源结合提供基本负载和灵活运营,以确保无碳能源系统的供应安全。
当中小型反应器和再生能源结合成单一能源系统并透过智慧电网连接时,中小型反应器可以高容量运行,同时满足生产率灵活性的需求,并创造能源、辅助服务和低碳副产品。 SMR 可以利用风能、太阳能、波浪能和潮汐能等可变能源来缓解日常和季节性波动。
能源脱碳的净零目标
随着2015 年《巴黎协定》的通过,全球将被要求利用所有低碳能源来管理温室气体(GHG) 排放,并将全球平均地表温度升高控制在2°C 以下。 ,核能电力、水力发电和风能是每单位发电量温室气体排放量最低的能源之一,包括建设、运作、退役和废弃物处理。
在运作过程中,基于SMR的核电厂基本上不排放温室气体或空气污染物,在整个生命週期中排放量非常少。脱碳措施可能有助于 SMR 的成长。例如,就反应器容量而言,中小型反应器可能非常适合取代电力产业退役的燃煤发电厂的一小部分。
SMR 还可以帮助需要输出温度在摄氏 80 至 200 度之间的其他能源部门脱碳,例如区域供暖和製程供热。使用轻水的小型模组化反应器可用于区域加热。例如,芬兰 VTT 技术研究中心于 2020 年 2 月启动了一个项目,生产用于区域供热应用的 SMR,以实现供热行业脱碳。
小型模组化反应器部署规定
SMR 的主要监管问题是应急计画区 (EPZ) 规模的缩小。根据IEAE的说法,出口加工区是一个根据环境监测资料和设施状况准备迅速采取紧急保护行动以避免国际标准规定剂量的区域。据美国核子管理委员会 (NRC) 称,该厂址周围有两个出口加工区。
对于任何核设施,第一个区域被称为羽流暴露路径,旨在最大限度地减少或减少工厂放射性物质潜在暴露的剂量,半径通常约为 10 英里(16.1 公里)。摄入暴露途径距离任何核设施约 50 英里(80.5 公里),旨在减少或避免因摄入受放射性污染物污染的食物而受到的暴露。
因此,每个紧急计画区的规模和结构是根据各种标准确定的,包括核设施的运作特征、核电厂厂址的地理特征以及核电厂周围的人口稠密地区。根据国际原子能总署的说法,对于热功率输出在 100 至 1,000 MWth 之间的反应堆,出口区半径优选为 5-25 公里,以避免发生事故时对人口造成辐射。
细分市场分析
按应用,小型模组化反应器市场分为多模组电站和单模组电站。
易于为小型模组化反应器中的附加模组融资
SMR 可以采用可扩展的多模组设计,为电网运作提供更大的灵活性,允许再生能源併网,并帮助取代老化的核电厂和燃煤电厂。新中小型反应器融资的便利性以及大量生产的经济性正在推动该领域的成长。
多模组发电厂还可以透过允许交错加油和逐台维护来帮助避免长期停电。多模式结构还提供了更好的电网灵活性,允许再生能源併网,并促进现有核电设施的更新和燃煤机组的退役。此外,具有多模式部署的SMR工厂有助于透过最大限度地减少前期支出来降低财务成本。因此,电力公司正在大量实施多模式 SMR,这可能会带来强劲的细分市场成长。
市场地域占有率
亚太国家经济快速成长
从地理上看,由于中国和印度等国家对 SMR 部署的投资增加,亚太地区预计将主导全球小型模组化设备产业,占据主要收入份额。该国最近的经济扩张导致能源需求迅速增加。能源公司正在寻找新的电力解决方案来满足不断增长的电力需求。因此,该地区对创新微型模组化设备的需求可能会急剧增加。
此外,中国有意鼓励发展第三代沿海核电设施和小型模组堆以及海上浮动核反应器。同时,日本政府实施了多项立法改革,并采取措施加速能源产业脱碳。例如,日本政府于 2020 年 10 月宣布了到 2050 年将温室气体排放 (GHG) 削减至零的雄心勃勃的目标,使该国走上成为碳中和社会的轨道。该方法对于帮助日本实现这一崇高目标至关重要。预计这种策略将有助于小型模组化设备领域的采用。
此外,该地区拥有大量市场供应商,拥有庞大的业务和客户群,从而使此类解决方案的可用性更高。例如,2021年7月,中国开始商业化兴建陆上核电厂,采用小型模组化反应器「玲龙一号」。该策略也导致该地区大力采用小型模组化反应器。
市场竞争格局
为了巩固自己的地位,休閒划船市场参与者正在采取各种策略,例如併购、销售通路开发和产品创新。全球小型模组化反应器市场主要公司包括西屋电气、Nuscale Power、Terrestrial Energy、Moltex Energy、X-Energy、Holtec International、General Atomics、Arc Clean Energy、Rolls-Royce 和 Lead-Cold Reactors。
COVID-19大流行影响了多家企业的成长。企业和政府为阻止病毒传播所做的努力导致发电需求大幅迅速下降。由于大规模停工和全球贸易中断,对电力系统的需求下降。
疫情减缓了小型模组化反应器技术的投资,并有可能扼杀该行业商业化的进展。短期内,铀供应方面受到的影响最大,因为一些矿场和核燃料循环设施因健康问题而关闭。
哈萨克、加拿大和纳米比亚等几个重要的铀矿开采国都进行了削减,这些国家生产了世界近三分之二的铀。工人的健康状况导致常规核电设施长期停电。在预测期内,小型模组化反应器设计、许可和建造的延迟以及电力需求的下降可能会对SMR的发展产生负面影响。
俄罗斯-乌克兰战争影响
由于引入了许多地缘政治不确定性,俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的战争对小型模组化反应器(SMR)市场产生了重大影响。衝突极大影响了全球供应链,导致SMR建造所需的重要原物料和零件价格上涨。近期的不稳定局势导致专案延误,并增加了投资者的财务风险,从而降低了市场的短期吸引力。此外,俄罗斯实体与全球合作伙伴之间的关係受到国际制裁和贸易限制的不利影响,这使得市场格局更加复杂。
另一方面,战争实际上引发了人们对能源安全和多样化的更多兴趣。这可能会在未来使 SMR 市场受益。如今,许多国家正在寻找方法来减少对不可预测能源的依赖。因此,他们正在考虑将小型模组化反应器 (SMR) 作为可靠且环保的替代方案。焦点的转变可能会导致更多人想要 SMR。这将导致更多的资金投入和该行业的更多发展。由于持续的地缘政治紧张局势,各国正在寻求提高其能源弹性。
全球小型模组化反应器市场报告将提供大约的资讯。 77 个市场资料表、72 张图表、221 页。
2024 年目标受众
Report Overview
The Global Small Modular Reactor Market size was worth US$ 5.72 billion in 2023 and is estimated to reach US$ 6.48 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 1.6% during the forecast period (2024-2031).
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) explains small as less than 300 MWe and medium as up to 700 MWe, including several active units from the twentieth century. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has dubbed small and medium reactors (SMRs). However, 'SMR' is most generally used as an acronym for the small modular reactor,' a nuclear reactor built for serial building and utilized to make up a big nuclear power plant.
For units under 15 MWe, a subtype of very small reactors called vSMRs has been proposed, especially for rural populations. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are nuclear reactors with a power output of 300 MWe or less constructed with modular technology and built in a module factory to achieve cost savings and fast building timeframes.
The World Nuclear Association's definition is based on the IAEA and U.S. Nuclear Energy Institute's definitions. PWRs may feature built-in steam generators, which necessitate a larger reactor pressure vessel, limiting transportation from factory to site. As a result, external steam generators are used in many larger PWRs, such as the Rolls-Royce UK SMR.
The market will be boosted by the flexibility and reliability of nuclear power and net-zero goals of decarbonization of energy. However, the stringent regulations on the deployment of small modular reactors are expected to hinder market growth.
Flexibility and reliability of nuclear power
Nuclear energy's adaptability may make it possible to transition to a cleaner planet and a stronger global economy. Clean energy sources have undergone remarkable innovation and cost reductions in recent decades. In the recent decade, solar photovoltaic, wind power, hydropower, dispatchable geothermal (both deep and shallow), biomass, concentrated solar power and fossil energy with carbon capture have made significant technological and economic progress.
Nuclear energy has the potential to be synergistically combined with a variety of other energy sources, resulting in integrated systems that are more than the sum of their parts. Small Module Reactors could be the most effective source of CO2-free electricity to supersede aging fossil fuel-powered plants, according to the participating member states at the International Conference on Climate Change and the Role of Nuclear Power, the IAEA in October 2019. With an output of 300 MWe, SMRs could be the most effective source of CO2-free electricity to supersede aging fossil fuel-powered plants.
The capacity to replace old fossil fuel-fired power plants and the potential for synergetic hybrid energy systems that mix nuclear and alternative energy sources, such as renewables, are pushing the development of such reactors. SMRs are a promising alternative for providing baseload and flexible operations in conjunction with renewables to assure supply security with carbon-free energy systems as the percentage of intermittent renewable energy grows on all continents.
SMRs can run at high capacity while satisfying the demand for production rate flexibility and creating energy, ancillary services and low-carbon co-products when SMRs and renewable energy are combined into a single energy system and connected through smart grids. SMRs can mitigate daily and seasonal oscillations with variable energy sources such as wind, solar, wave and tidal energy.
Net-zero goals of decarbonization of energy
With the passage of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the globe will be required to harness all low-carbon energy sources to manage greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and keep global mean surface temperature increase below 2° C. On a life cycle basis, nuclear power, hydropower and wind energy deliver one of the lowest GHG emissions per unit of electricity generated, including construction, operation, decommissioning and waste disposal.
During operation, SMR-based nuclear power plants release essentially no greenhouse gas emissions or air pollutants and they emit very minimal emissions during their entire life cycle. Decarbonization measures may aid SMR growth. SMRs, for example, could be a good fit in terms of reactor capacity to replace a fraction of the power industry's retiring coal-fired power stations.
SMRs could also help decarbonize other energy sectors that require output temperatures between 80 and 200 degrees Celsius, such as district heating and process heating. Small modular reactors using light water can be utilized for district heating. For example, Finland's VTT Technical Research Centre launched a project in February 2020 to manufacture SMRs for applications of district heating to decarbonize the heat sector.
Regulations for small modular reactor deployment
The primary regulatory concern in the case of SMRs is the reduction in the size of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). The EPZ is a zone where, according to the IEAE, preparations are made to promptly implement urgent protective action based on environmental monitoring data and facility circumstances to avoid doses prescribed by international standards. The plant site is surrounded by two EPZs, according to U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
For any nuclear facility, the first zone, known as a Plume Exposure Pathway, is meant to minimize or reduce the dose from potential exposure to radioactive materials from the plant and is typically around 10 miles (16.1 km) in radius. The Ingestion Exposure Pathway, around 50 miles (80.5 kilometers) from any nuclear facility, is meant to decrease or avoid exposure from potential ingestion of food contaminated by radioactive contaminants.
As a result, the size and structure of each Emergency Planning Zone are determined by various criteria, including the operating characteristics of the nuclear facility, the geographical features of the plant site and the populated regions surrounding the plant. According to the IAEA, an EPZ radius of 5-25 km is preferred for reactors with thermal power outputs between 100 and 1,000 MWth to avoid radiation exposure to the population in the case of an accident.
Market Segment Analysis
By application, the small modular reactor market is segmented into multi-module power plants and single-module power plants.
Ease of financing additional modules in small modular reactors
SMRs can be implemented in scalable, multi-module designs to give grid operations more flexibility, allow for renewable integration and help replace aging nuclear power plants and coal-fired power plants. The ease with which new SMRs can be financed, resulting in series production economics, is driving the segment's growth.
Multi-module power plants also help avoid protracted outages by allowing for staggered refueling and unit-by-unit maintenance. The multi-mode structure also provides better grid flexibility, allowing for renewable integration and facilitating the replacement of existing nuclear power facilities and the retirement of coal-fired units. Furthermore, the SMR plant with multi-mode deployment helps to reduce financial costs by minimizing upfront expenditure. As a result, power companies are implementing multi-mode SMR in large numbers, likely to lead to strong segmental growth.
Market Geographical Share
The rapid economic growth of Asia-Pacific countries
Geographically, Asia-Pacific is predicted to dominate the worldwide small modular device industry, accounting for a major revenue share because of increased investments in SMR deployment in countries like China and India. The country's recent economic expansion has resulted in a rapid increase in energy demand. Energy companies are looking for new power solutions to fulfill the rising electricity demand. As a result, demand for innovative tiny modular devices in the region will likely increase dramatically.
Furthermore, China intends to encourage the development of Generation III coastal nuclear power facilities and SMRs and offshore floating nuclear reactors. At the same time, Japan's government has implemented several legislative reforms and taken steps to hasten decarbonization in the energy industry. For example, the Japanese government announced in October 2020 its ambitious ambition to cut greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) to zero by 2050, putting the country on track to become a carbon-neutral society. The method is critical in assisting Japan in achieving this lofty aim. The adoption of the small modular device sector is predicted to be aided by such a strategy.
Furthermore, the region has a wide pool of market suppliers with large operations and customer bases, resulting in greater availability of such solutions. For example, in July 2021, China began commercial construction of an onshore nuclear power plant employing a small modular reactor called Linglong One. The strategy is also responsible for the region's strong adoption of small modular reactors.
Market Competitive Landscape
Fortifying their positions, recreational boating market participants are working on various strategies such as mergers and acquisitions, sales channel development and product innovation. Major global small modular reactor market companies include Westing House Electric, Nuscale Power, Terrestrial Energy, Moltex Energy, X-Energy, Holtec International, General Atomics, Arc Clean Energy, Rolls-Royce and Lead-Cold Reactors.
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the growth of several enterprises. Businesses and governments' efforts to stop the virus from spreading have resulted in a considerable and rapid fall in demand for power generation. The demand for power systems had declined due to large-scale shutdowns and disruptions in global trade.
The epidemic has slowed investments in small modular reactor technologies and threatens to stifle the industry's progress toward commercialization. In the short term, the impact is greatest on the uranium supply side, as several mines and nuclear fuel cycle facilities have shut down due to health concerns.
The reductions have taken place in several important uranium-mining countries, including Kazakhstan, Canada and Namibia, producing nearly two-thirds of the world's uranium. Workers' health is causing extended outages at conventional nuclear power facilities. During the projection period, delays in small modular reactor design, licensing and construction, and a decline in electricity demand could negatively impact SMR development.
Russia-Ukraine War Impact
The war between Russia and Ukraine has had a major impact on the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) market due to the introduction of a lot of geopolitical uncertainty. The conflict has greatly affected global supply chains, causing prices to rise for important raw materials and components required for SMR construction. The recent instability has caused project delays and increased financial risks for investors, which has made the market less appealing in the short term. In addition, the relationships between Russian entities and global partners have been adversely impacted by international sanctions and trade restrictions, which has further complicated the market landscape.
On the other hand, the war has actually sparked more interest in energy security and diversification. This could potentially benefit the SMR market in the future. Nowadays, many countries are looking for ways to reduce their dependence on unpredictable energy sources. As a result, they are considering Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as a reliable and eco-friendly alternative. There is a shift in focus happening that could cause more people to want SMRs. This would lead to more money being invested and more development happening in the sector. Countries are looking to improve their energy resilience because of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The global small modular reactor market report would provide access to an approx. 77 market data tables, 72 figures and 221 pages.
Target Audience 2024