合约生技药品开发和受託製造厂商的成长机会，2024-2029

下一代生技药品的风险共用经营模式将推动生物/CDMO 的成长并激发未来的可能性

到2023年，生技药品将占治疗产品线的44%，其中抗体和重组蛋白是主要类别。然而，这些领域的进展已经放缓，大部分扩展在异种细胞疗法、合成核酸和病毒方面。全球生技药品管道可能转向更复杂的治疗方法，包括细胞和基因疗法（CGT）、核酸疗法、ADC和双特异性抗体。专注于这些治疗的生物製药公司可能会透过缩短临床开发时间和降低销货成本（COGS）来更加重视生产具有成本效益的药物。生技药品合约开发和受託製造厂商(Bio-CDMO) 正在积极制定其製造和供应链策略，特别专注于与服务供应商合作以优化製造流程。

美国通货膨胀减少法案 (IRA) 和 BIOSECURE 法案可能会减缓对製药创新和 CDMO 服务的需求，导致全球外包动态和 CDMO 策略发生根本性变化。创业投资透过内部重组和增加现金储备来支持其医药投资组合。对 CDMO 的需求持续下降，尤其是在开发的早期阶段。然而，2023年下半年至2024年，併购交易增加，生技资金筹措和估值具备有利条件，通膨和利率趋于稳定。到 2024 年，我们预计需求将会復苏，尤其是新兴生物製药和早期开发阶段的需求。

该分析提供了全球生物/CDMO 市场的详细收益预测。预测按市场和细分市场分类，提供有价值的行业见解。我们的分析重点是透过考虑趋势、经营模式和创新策略来强调参与企业的潜在成长机会。市场区隔涵盖产品类型、细胞表现类型、模式和区域等各个方面。考虑到 COVID-19 大流行的结束和当前的全球地缘政治问题，外包需求正在放缓。 CDMO 的需求正在减少，尤其是来自规模较小的新兴生物製药公司和早期公司的需求。该分析全面检验了2024 年至 2029 年的未来趋势。还包括有关产能扩张、併购、收购和服务扩展的见解。我们也分析生物/CDMO 策略挑战、成长驱动因素、阻碍因素、收益占有率预测和商机的影响。

目录

成长环境：生物/CDMO领域的转型

• 为什么成长如此困难？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 生物/CDMO产业三大战略重点的影响

成长环境：Bio/CDMO生态系统

• 生技药品产业-展望
• 生技药品产业－重点治疗领域展望
• 生技药品管道 - 按方式、按阶段
• 生技药品产业 - 按方式分類的市场规模和成长率预测
• 影响生物/CDMO产业的全球趋势
• 影响生物/CDMO产业的产业趋势
• 经营模式－从按服务收费转向以价值为基础的风险分担
• 基于价值的风险分担经营模式
• 分析范围
• 分割
• 分割
• 竞争环境
• 主要竞争对手

成长要素

• 成长指标
• 生长促进因子
• 成长抑制因素
• 预测考虑因素
• 预测架构 - 生物/CDMO 市场规模
• 预测方法-Bio/CDMO市场
• 收益预测
• 收益预测：依产品类型
• 收益预测：按细胞培养类型
• 收益预测：按地区
• 收益预测：依方式分类
• 收益分析
• 收益分析：按地区
• 收益占有率
• 收益占有率分析

生长机会分析：细胞/基因治疗

• 成长指标
• 收益预测
• 预测分析

成长机会分析：疫苗

• 成长指标
• 收益预测
• 预测分析

增长机会分析：抗体疗法

• 成长指标
• 收益预测
• 预测分析

成长机会分析：蛋白质/胜肽

• 成长指标
• 收益预测
• 预测分析

生物/CDMO 领域的成长机会

• 成长机会 1 – 扩大製药能力以支持抗肥胖药物
• 成长机会2－提供端对端mRNA服务
• 成长机会3－印度国内企业加强生技药品能力

生物/CDMO 最佳实践的认可

生物/CDMO 领域的FROST RADAR

下一步

Risk-sharing Business Models for Next-generation Biologics Will Drive Bio-CDMO Growth and Spur Future Potential

By 2023, biologics constituted 44% of the therapeutic pipeline, with antibodies and recombinant proteins as leading categories. Nevertheless, advancements in these fields decelerated, with most of the expansion happening in heterologous cell treatments, synthetic nucleic acids, and viruses. The global biologics pipeline will shift toward more complex treatment modalities, including cell and gene therapy (CGT), nucleic acid therapy, ADC, and bispecific antibodies. Biopharmaceutical companies that focus on these treatments will strive for reduced durations for clinical development and a greater focus on cost-effectively producing drugs with lower costs of goods sold (COGS). Biologics contract development and manufacturing organizations (Bio-CDMOs) are actively framing manufacturing and supply chain strategies, with a specific emphasis on partnering with service providers to optimize the production process.

The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the BIOSECURE Act have the potential to slow down drug innovation and the demand for CDMO services, leading to radical transformations in global outsourcing dynamics and CDMO strategies. Venture capitalists are assisting their pharmaceutical portfolios by internally restructuring and extending their cash reserves. CDMOs have experienced a consistent decrease in demand, especially for the initial phases of development. However, in late 2023 and 2024, there was a rise in M&A transactions, favorable conditions for biotech financing and valuation, and a stabilization of inflation and interest rates. Demand will resurge, particularly from emerging biopharma and early-stage development, by 2024.

This Frost & Sullivan analysis provides detailed revenue forecasts for the global market of bio-CDMOs. The forecasts are categorized by market and segment, offering valuable insights into the industry. The analysis focuses on highlighting the potential growth opportunities for participants by considering trends, business models, and innovative strategies. The market segments cover various aspects, such as product type, cell expression type, modality, and geographic region. Considering the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the current global geopolitical issues, demand for outsourcing has decelerated. CDMOs are experiencing a decline in demand, particularly from small and emerging biopharmaceutical companies and those in the early stages of development. This analysis provides a comprehensive examination of future trends, covering the period between 2024 and 2029. It includes insights on capacity expansions, mergers, acquisitions, and the expansion of service offerings. The analysis also investigates the impact of strategic imperatives, growth drivers, restraints, revenue share estimates, and opportunities for bio-CDMOs.

Table of Contents

Growth Environment- Transformation in theBio-CDMO Sector

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Bio-CDMO Industry

Growth Environment- Ecosystem in Bio-CDMO

• Biologics Industry-Outlook
• Biologics Industry-Key Therapeutic Area Outlook
• Biologics Pipeline by Modality and Phase
• Biologics Industry-Market size and Growth Rate Forecast by Modality
• Global Trends Impacting the Bio-CDMO Industry
• Industry Trends Impacting the Bio-CDMO Industry
• Business Model-Shift from Fee-for-service to Value-based Risk-sharing
• Value-based Risk-sharing Business Model
• Scope of Analysis
• Segmentation
• Segmentation
• Competitive Environment
• Key Competitors

Growth Generator

• Growth Metrics
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Forecast Considerations
• Forecast Framework-Bio-CDMO Market Sizing
• Forecast Methodology-Bio-CDMO Market
• Revenue Forecast
• Revenue Forecast by Product Type
• Revenue Forecast by Cell-culture Type
• Revenue Forecast by Region
• Revenue Forecast by Modality
• Revenue Forecast Analysis
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Region
• Revenue Share
• Revenue Share Analysis

Growth Generator Analysis-Growth GeneratorCell and Gene Therapy

• Growth Metrics
• Revenue Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis-Growth Generator Vaccines

• Growth Metrics
• Revenue Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis-Growth Generator Antibody Therapeutics

• Growth Metrics
• Revenue Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis-Growth Generator Proteins and Peptides

• Growth Metrics
• Revenue Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Universe in Bio-CDMO

• Growth Opportunity 1-Expanding Drug Product Capabilites to Support Anti-obesity Drugs
• Growth Opportunity 2-Providing End-to-end mRNA Services
• Growth Opportunity 3-Indian Domestic Players Enhance Biologics Capabilities

Best Practice Recognition in Bio-CDMO

• Best Practice Recognition

Frost Radar in Bio-CDMO

• Frost Radar

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• Take the Next Step
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer