川普2.0带来的全球宏观经济风险与机会（2025-2028）

美国政策发展和长期贸易战带来的短期衝击预计将导致 2028 年全球 GDP 成长下降 1.5%。

在美国第二届川普政府执政下，全球贸易和经济成长动能将因政治、贸易和政策发展而变得复杂。

在基准中，预计 2025 年至 2028 年期间对全球 GDP 的影响将保持适度，主要受亚洲主要新兴市场的强劲成长推动。在悲观情境下，旷日持久的贸易战可能导致2028年全球GDP成长下降1.5%。从国家层级来看，在基准情境下，2028年美国实质GDP成长可能放缓至2.0%，在悲观情境下则可能放缓至0.5%。美国的贸易和移民限制可能会加剧2025年加拿大和墨西哥经济的景气衰退。例如，预计墨西哥经济在2025年在基准下将萎缩0.4％，在悲观情境下将萎缩0.5％。

该分析还包括川普第二届政府对全球经济以及汽车、半导体、石油和天然气产业的长期影响。在地缘政治紧张局势加剧和贸易战持续的时代，决策者和高阶主管可以利用这种思想领导力，在近期至中期内做出明智的业务和扩张决策。

目录

成长机会：研究范围

策略要务

• 成长为何变得越来越艰难？
• 策略要务
• 三大战略必要事项对川普2.0带来的全球宏观经济风险与机会的影响，2025-2028年

成长机会分析

• 2025-2028 年川普2.0带来的全球宏观经济风险与机会：驱动因素与限制因素
• 经济指标
• 简称

生态系统

• 行政命令 - 移民
• 行政命令 - 能源与气候
• 总统令 - 企业税

成长动力

• 川普2.0——潜在的政策愿景情景
• 川普2.0政策的潜在影响与风险
• 主要宏观经济影响 – 世界
• 主要宏观经济影响 –美国
• 主要宏观经济影响－中国
• 主要宏观经济影响 – 墨西哥
• 主要宏观经济影响 – 欧元区
• 川普2.0的长期影响

产业影响分析

• 车
• 石油和天然气
• 半导体

成长机会

• 成长机会一：汽车
• 成长机会二：能源（石油天然气、绿色能源、核能）
• 成长机会三：高科技产业（人工智慧、半导体）

附录与后续步骤

Near-Term Shocks Amid US Policy Moves; Protracted Trade Wars Will Shave Off 1.5% of Global GDP Growth in 2028

Global trade and economic growth momentum will be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States. This Frost & Sullivan macroeconomic thought leadership lays down potential US policy scenarios (including tariffs, immigration, and foreign policy) to establish forecasts for 2025 and 2028 for the global economy and the economies of the United States, China, Mexico, and the euro area.

In the baseline, Frost & Sullivan expects the impact on global GDP to remain muted between 2025 and 2028 mainly due to buoyant growth in key Asian emerging markets. In the pessimistic scenario, protracted trade wars could shave off 1.5% from global GDP growth in 2028. At the national level, in 2028, the United States' real GDP growth could slow to 2.0% in the baseline scenario and a meager 0.5% in the pessimistic scenario. US trade and immigration regulations might exacerbate recessionary conditions in the Canadian and Mexican economies in 2025. For instance, the Mexican economy is forecast to face a 0.4% contraction in 2025 in the baseline and a 0.5% contraction in the pessimistic case.

The analysis includes long-term implications of the second Trump administration on the global economy and on the automotive, semiconductor, and oil and gas industries. Decision-makers and executives can leverage this thought leadership to make informed business and expansion decisions in the near to medium term in an era of elevated geopolitical tensions and persistent trade wars.

Table of Contents

Growth Opportunities: Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives of Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028: Drivers and Restraints
• Economic Metrics
• Abbreviations

Ecosystem

• Executive Orders-Immigration-Focused
• Executive Orders-Energy and Climate-Focused
• Executive Orders-Corporate Tax-Focused Measures

Growth Generator

• Trump 2.0-Potential Policy Vision Scenarios
• Trump 2.0 Policy Likelihood and Risk Impact Mapping
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-Global
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-United States
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-China
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-Mexico
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-Euro Area
• Trump 2.0 Long-Term Implications

Industry Impact Analysis

• Automotive
• Oil and Gas
• Semiconductors

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Automotive
• Growth Opportunity 2: Energy (Oil and Gas, Green Energy, and Nuclear Energy)
• Growth Opportunity 3: High-Tech Industries (AI and Semiconductors)

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer