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太阳光发电

市场调查报告书

商品编码

1750751

全球太阳能产业（2023-2035）

Solar PV Industry, Global, 2023-2035

出版日期: 2025年05月14日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 62 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内

价格

简介目录

成本竞争力将推动未来十年转型成长

预计到2024年，太阳能光电将占所有发电投资的45%，并在未来十年内保持这一比例。通货膨胀推高了2023年的计划成本，但模组和光电逆变器成本的下降导致成本在2023年开始下降，并在2024年持续下降。

随着太阳能投资回报期越来越吸引人，住宅、商业和工业用户也越来越多地投资太阳能，以降低电费。与电池储能係统 (BESS) 结合使用时，太阳能可以为系统所有者带来额外的商机。

收益预测反映了太阳能资产投入运作当年的年度资本支出，包括光电模组、逆变器、系统成本平衡、安装成本、试运行成本等。（适用于大型商业/工业和电网规模计划）。

短期、中期、长期分别指1-2年（2025-2026年）、3-4年（2027-2028年）、5-11年（2029-2035年）。

三大战略挑战将如何影响太阳能产业

竞争加剧

原因：太阳能产业竞争激烈。中国组件製造商已投入大量资金建设新生产设施，儘管需求旺盛，但目前产能严重过剩，导致价格跌至历史低点。

弗罗斯特的观点：对于计划开发商来说，模组流程的减少使他们能够降低计划成本，使太阳能更具竞争力，而美国的税额扣抵部分抵消了这一点，因为合格开发商必须证明他们正在使用成本更高的国内材料。

地缘政治动盪

原因：重大衝突使能源安全成为主要关切。日益激烈的经济竞争导致关税使用增加，尤其是在美国。关税导致进口商品价格上涨，国产商品更具竞争力，进而扭曲了产业结构。

弗罗斯特的观点：关税（和奖励）正在推动更多投资流向中国以外的市场，尤其是美国。儘管如此，中国的优势不太可能受到削弱，因为它已经领先，并且已经大幅降低了成本。

创新经营模式

原因：随着电网智慧化程度的提高，电网资产也变得越来越重要。过去两年，住宅太阳能发展强劲，随着成本持续下降，更多商业和工业企业可能会转向太阳能。

Frost 的观点：太阳能发电工程产生的电力是一种资产，当与 BESS 和 EV 充电器等其他 DER 结合时，可以为资产所有者创造额外的收益。

成长动力

许多国家都制定了国家能源和气候计划，其中设定了具体的可再生能源目标和支持计划，例如上网电价补贴、奖励税额扣抵抵免、配额、义务、绿色电力的再生能源凭证和竞标，这意味着太阳能光伏通常占计划的很大一部分。
成本下降和储存技术的进步使得太阳能加储存成为越来越有吸引力的提案。
太阳能技术成本曾因全球供应链压力而暂时下降，但现在又开始下降，尤其是组件成本，从而拉低了计划总成本，预计还将继续缓慢下降。
电费上涨将促使住宅和商业与工业客户投资自发电，而后者将有助于企业遵守环境、社会和治理(ESG) 目标。
地缘政治担忧和近期能源商品价格波动，使能源安全成为许多国家面临的重大问题。太阳能光电装置可以保障电力供应，减少石化燃料消耗，进而有效规避此类问题。
追踪器、双面电池板和高效电池等技术进步正在提高太阳能计划的经济性，使其成为更具吸引力的投资选择。

成长抑制因素

确保并联型会导致授权审批延迟，这也是业界面临的一大难题。许多国家现有的输配电基础设施需要大量投资才能确保再生能源的有效整合。强劲的需求成长导致输配电硬体的长期延迟。在太阳能装置中添加电池储能係统 (BESS) 可以减少所需的额外输配电投资。
在一些国家，授权仍然是一个挑战，在欧洲和北美，获得电网规模太阳能发电工程的授权需要长达四年的时间，儘管情况正在改善，但对于计划来说仍然是一个重大的延迟。
虽然大多数国家都为太阳能提供了强有力的奖励，但有些国家正在减少奖励，这可能会阻碍潜在的投资者。

主要发现
成长动力
成长抑制因素
价值链
主要行业趋势
趋势一：组件价格触底，但製造商压力依然巨大
趋势二：川普总统当选为产业带来不确定性，但影响有限
趋势三：可再生能源计划PPA份额持续成长，太阳能计划占比最大
趋势四：太阳能+储能，电錶两侧的完美结合
趋势五：效率提升推动先进太阳能追踪器的成长
趋势六：先进的定序提案成为太阳能维护策略中越来越重要的元素
趋势七：更多资产达到最佳运作，增加了维修和再发电的机会
趋势八：发展农业太阳能发电，实现农作物与阳光共存
趋势九：亚洲将成为浮体式太阳能发电（FPV）的热点
趋势 10：光电回收减少对原料的需求并最大程度减少掩埋
趋势十一：新材料日益实用化
趋势12：太阳能越来越多被引入城市环境

全球预测

预测先决条件
各地区年度产能新增预测
各地区累积设置容量预测
各地区资本支出预测
各部门年度新增产能预测
各分部累积设置容量预测
各部门资本支出预测
2035年的太阳能发电
2035年装置容量和发电量

区域分析

资本支出预测：中国
资本支出预测：北美
各国资本支出预测：北美
资本支出预测：拉丁美洲
各国资本支出预测：北美、拉丁美洲
资本支出预测：西欧
西欧各国资本支出预测
资本支出预测：中欧和东欧
各国资本支出预测：中欧和东欧
资本支出预测：东亚
各国资本支出预测：东亚
资本支出预测：印度和南亚
各国资本支出预测：印度和南亚
资本支出预测：澳洲、纽西兰和太平洋地区
澳洲、纽西兰和太平洋地区国家资本支出预测
资本支出预测：东协
收益预测：东协
资本支出预测：中东和北非
各国资本支出预测：中东和北非
资本支出预测：撒哈拉以南非洲
撒哈拉以南非洲地区资本支出预测
资本支出预测：俄罗斯和独联体
各国资本支出预测：俄罗斯与独联体

成长机会领域

成长机会1：太阳能资产再利用
成长机会2：高级定序提案
成长机会3：浮体式太阳能发电

附录与后续步骤

成长机会的益处和影响
后续步骤Next steps
附件列表
免责声明

简介目录

Product Code: MH9A-27

Cost Competitiveness Driving Transformational Growth for the Next Decade

Solar PV accounted for 45% of all power generation investment in 2024, and is forecast to maintain this throughout the next decade. Inflation drove up project costs in 2023, but lower module and PV inverter costs meant costs started to decline in 2023 and continued to decline in 2024-a rarity for the power industry.

Residential, commercial, and industrial customers are increasingly investing in solar PV as a way to reduce electricity bills as the payback becomes more attractive. When combined with battery energy storage systems (BESS), solar PV can provide system owners with additional revenue opportunities.

The revenue forecast reflects annual CAPEX and is accrued to the year the solar PV asset becomes operational. The CAPEX includes PV modules, inverters, balance-of-system costs, installation, and commissioning costs (these apply to larger commercial and industrial and grid-scale projects).

Short, medium, and long terms refer to 1 to 2 years (2025?2026), 3 to 4 years (2027?2028), and 5 to 11 years (2029?2035), respectively.

Scope of Analysis

Solar PV accounted for 45% of all power generation investment in 2024, and is forecast to maintain this throughout the next decade. Inflation drove up project costs in 2023, but lower module and PV inverter costs meant costs started to decline in 2023 and continued to decline in 2024 - a rarity for the power industry.
Residential, commercial, and industrial customers are increasingly investing in solar PV as a way to reduce electricity bills, as the payback becomes more attractive. When combined with battery energy storage systems (BESS), solar PV can provide system owners with additional revenue opportunities.
The revenue forecast reflects annual capex, and is accrued to the year the solar PV asset becomes operational. The capex includes PV modules, inverters, balance-of-system costs, installation and commissioning costs (these apply to larger commercial & industrial and utility-scale projects).
Short, medium, and long terms refer to 1 to 2 years (2025-2026), 3 to 4 years (2027-2028), and 5 to 11 years (2029-2035), respectively.

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Solar PV Industry

Competitive Intensity

Why: The level of competition in the solar PV industry is high. Chinese module producers have invested huge sums in new production facilities, meaning there is now major overcapacity, even with the high levels of demand. This has driven prices to record lows.

Frost Perspective: For project developers, the declining module process are enabling them to bring down projects costs, thus making solar PV more competitive. Tax credits in the United States are partially countering this, because top qualify developers need to prove they are using locally sourced materials which have a higher cost.

Geopolitical Chaos

Why: Major conflicts have made energy security a major concern. Increasing economic competition is resulting in a higher use of tariffs, principally by the United States. Tariffs act to distort industries by making imported goods more expensive and domestically produced goods more competitive.

Frost Perspective: Tariffs (and incentives) are increasing investment in markets outside of China, particularly in the United States. Despite this, China's dominance will be largely unchallenged because it is so far ahead already and has driven costs so low.

Innovative Business Models

Why: As the intelligence of the grid increases, those assets on the grid gain more importance. There has been strong growth in residential solar PV in the past two years, and more commercial & industrial businesses will install PV as the costs continue to decline.

Frost Perspective: The electricity produced from Solar PV projects is an asset. When combined with other DER such as BESS and EV Chargers it can generate additional revenues for the asset owners - or it can mitigate potential demand charges or high electricity bills.

Growth Drivers

Many countries have national energy and climate plans that set specific targets for RE, with solar PV usually accounting for a significant percentage of projects, with support programs such as FITs, incentives, tax credits, quotas, obligations, green certificates, and auctions.
Cost reductions and advancements in storage technologies make solar+ storage an increasingly attractive proposition as customers look to boost self-consumption and solar farm operators seek to maximize revenues.
After a blip because of pressures in the global supply chain, solar PV technology costs are falling again, particularly for modules, meaning that total project costs declined and are forecast to continue a slow decline.
Higher electricity costs incentivize residential and C&I customers to invest in onsite generation while helping the latter comply with corporate environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) targets.
Geopolitical concerns and the recent volatility in energy commodity prices have made energy security a major issue in many countries. Installing solar PV is a hedge against this, as it ensures a supply of electricity, reducing consumption of fossil fuels.
Technological advancements, such as trackers, bifacial panels, and higher-efficiency cells, boost the project economics of solar PV, making it a more attractive investment option.

Growth Restraints

Securing grid connections results in permitting delays, a major concern for the industry. The existing T&D infrastructure in many countries requires significant investment to ensure the effective integration of renewables. Strong demand growth has led to long delays for T&D hardware. Adding a BESS to a solar PV installation can reduce the amount of additional T&D investment that is required.
Permitting remains a challenge in several countries, taking up to 4 years to win approval for a grid-scale solar PV project in Europe and North America. The situation is improving but will remain a factor in delaying projects.
While most countries still provide strong incentives for solar, some have reduced them, deterring potential investors.

Research Scope

Scope of Analysis
End-user Segmentation
Regional Segmentation
Key Value Chain Competitors

Strategic Imperatives

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Solar PV Industry

Growth Opportunity Analysis

Key Findings
Growth Drivers
Growth Restraints
Value Chain
Key Industry Trends
Trend 1: Module Prices have Bottomed Out, but Pressure on Manufacturers Remains Intense
Trend 2: President Trump's Election Brings Uncertainty to the Industry, but it Should Only Suffer Limited Disruption
Trend 3: PPA's Continue to Account for a Higher Share of Renewable Projects-Solar Dominates the Total Volume of Projects
Trend 4: Solar-plus-storage, the Perfect Match for Both Sides of the Meter
Trend 5: Efficiency Gains Drive Growth of Advanced Solar Trackers
Trend 6: Advanced Servicing Propositions are Becoming an Increasingly Crucial Component of Solar PV Maintenance Strategies
Trend 7: Revamping and Repowering Opportunities are Increasing as More Assets Reach the End of their Optimum Operational Lifetime
Trend 8: Agri PV Developments Mean Crops and Solar can Coexist
Trend 9: Asia is the Future Hotspot for Floating Solar PV FPV
Trend 10: PV Recycling Reduces the Requirement for Virgin Materials and Minimizes Landfilling
Trend 11: New Materials are being Deployed Commercially
Trend 12: Solar is being Increasingly Incorporated in Urban Environments