川普2.0政策策略分析及其对全球汽车产业的潜在影响（2025年）

由于现有供应链可能中断，迫使汽车原始设备製造商重新评估其采购和製造策略，预计中期将出现成本压力

2025年3月26日，美国总统川普对进口乘用车、轻型卡车及部分汽车零件（例如引擎、变速箱、动力传动系统总成零件和电气零件）征收25%的关税。他还宣布了一套更为全面的“互惠关税”，对来自大多数国家的几乎所有商品征收10%的关税。

随后，在对进口汽车及零件维持25%核心关税的同时，川普总统暂时停止了部分额外的报復性关税，并推迟了对符合《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定》（USMCA）的汽车製造商和产品征收关税，主要是为了避免累积关税负担，并让美国汽车製造商放心这些措施对经济和供应链的影响。

预计政府政策，例如终止电动车激励措施、暂停充电基础设施资金以及废除电动车强制令，将在未来五年内减缓美国电动车的成长。这将使美国电动车製造商的处境日益艰难，因为他们大部分锂离子电池和稀土依赖从中国和其他亚洲供应商进口，这意味着成本上升。

在这种不确定性的漩涡中，人们不禁要问，高度交织和高度全球化的汽车产业将受到怎样的影响：国内外汽车製造商、产量、零件供应商、供应链和消费者将会发生什么变化？

这种通膨效应，加上电动车奖励的取消，可能会在短期内人为地夸大内燃机汽车的优势，但从长远来看，将削弱其国际竞争力。整体而言，随着汽车製造商将资本转向关税减免和供应链重组，而非研发，包括电气化在内的变革性技术创新可能会丧失。

消费者尚未感受到汽车零件关税上调带来的价格上涨影响。这部分是由于竞争压力和汽车製造商的策略决策。然而，随着竞争压力减弱以及企业寻求保持盈利，这种情况可能会改变。

在规划未来蓝图图时，汽车製造商准备重新评估其汽车零件筹资策略和生产地点，许多製造商转向本地化生产和供应链，以尽量减少关税的影响并保持长期成本竞争力。

分析范围

• 预计2025年全球贸易和经济成长动能将受到美国第二届川普政府下复杂的政治、贸易和政策发展的影响。
• 继2024年实质GDP成长3.2%之后，预计2028年全球经济将维持每年3.2%-3.3%的成长势头，新兴市场经济仍将维持其在经济成长率的领先地位。
• 我们的基准情境假设川普总统对所有墨西哥和加拿大进口产品征收 25% 的关税，对中国进口产品征收 10% 的关税，同时允许墨西哥和加拿大征收相应的报復性关税。
• 我们保守的预测是，对来自加拿大和墨西哥的进口产品征收25%至35%的关税，对来自中国的进口产品征收60%或更高的关税，对所有进口产品征收10%至20%的统一关税，对来自墨西哥的汽车进口产品征收200%或更高的关税。我们也假设，作为报復措施的一部分，美国主要出口产品将被征收约50%至60%的关税，对加拿大、墨西哥和欧盟将被征收10%至25%的关税。
• 在基本案例中，由于主要亚洲新兴经济体将刺激全球需求和成长，贸易战对GDP的影响将较小。然而，在保守的情境下，旷日持久的贸易战可能导致2028年全球GDP成长下降1.5%，全球通膨率超过6.0%，并导緻美国、加拿大、哥伦比亚、墨西哥、德国和韩国等经济体陷入持续数季的景气衰退。

目录

调查范围

战略必要事项

• 为什么成长变得越来越困难
• 策略要务
• 策略要务

成长环境

• 关键要点
• 川普2.0带来的全球宏观经济风险与机会，2025-2028
• 川普2.0关税对汽车产业的影响
• 主要汽车製造商对美国销售的进口依赖
• 关税对製造商建议零售价的影响－福特F-150车款分析
• 钢铁和铝关税的影响—丰田凯Camry分析
• 主要汽车製造商对美国关税的反应

川普2.0政策概述及其宏观经济影响

• 美国总统就任百日行政命令
• 唐纳德·特朗普总统发布的主要行政命令清单
• 在基准关税情境下，全球经济成长预计将从2024年的3.2%放缓至2025年的2.8%。
• 关税战将导致供应链策略进一步多样化和分散化
• 由于中国经济放缓拖累亚太地区经济成长，全球经济将避免景气衰退，2025年成长速度将放缓至2.8%

影响汽车产业的政策分析

• 可能影响汽车产业的总统命令
• 汽车进口具体政策
• 川普2.0政策对美国电动车市场的影响

美国关税对墨西哥汽车业的影响

• 从墨西哥进口到美国的乘用车及零件
• 墨西哥对美国的轻型汽车出口
• 墨西哥製造的主要汽车零件
• 墨西哥主要变速箱和组装厂
• 墨西哥关税及其对汽车产业的影响－关键要点

美国关税如何影响加拿大汽车业

• 从加拿大进口乘用车及零件至美国
• 加拿大汽车生产状况
• 依赖加拿大的 OEM 车型
• 加拿大製造的主要汽车零件
• 加拿大关税及其对汽车产业的影响－关键要点

美国关税对中国汽车产业的影响

• 从中国进口到美国的乘用车及零件
• 中国汽车生产情况
• 依赖中国的OEM模式
• 中国製造的主要汽车零件
• 主要整车厂对中国市场影响分析
• 中国关税及其对汽车产业的影响—关键要点

美国关税对德国汽车业的影响

• 从德国进口乘用车及零件到美国
• 德国汽车生产状况
• 依赖德国的OEM模式
• 德国製造的主要汽车零件
• 德国主要整车厂影响分析
• 德国关税及其对汽车产业的影响－关键要点

美国关税对韩国汽车产业的影响

• 从韩国进口到美国的乘用车及零件
• 韩国汽车生产现状
• 韩国製造的主要汽车零件
• 韩国依赖型OEM模式
• 韩国关税及其对汽车产业的影响－要点

美国关税对日本汽车产业的影响

• 从日本进口乘用车及零件至美国
• 日本製造的主要汽车零件
• 日式汽车生产状况
• 日本依赖型OEM模式
• 日本关税及其对汽车产业的影响－重点

成长机会

• 成长机会1：供应链再平衡
• 成长机会2：重新检视美国市场的动力传动系统策略
• 成长机会三：专注于创新以降低成本

附录与后续步骤

Cost Pressures Expected in the Medium Term as Potential Disruptions to Established Supply Networks Prompt Automotive OEMs to Recalibrate Sourcing and Manufacturing Strategies

US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports of passenger vehicles, light trucks, and certain automotive parts (engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components, among them) on March 26, 2025. He also announced a more comprehensive set of "reciprocal tariffs," starting at 10% on almost all goods from most countries.

Subsequently, although the core 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts were retained, President Trump temporarily suspended several additional retaliatory tariffs and delayed tariff implementation on United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant automakers and goods. This was done mainly to avoid cumulative tariff burdens and assuage US automakers about the economic and supply chain fallout of these measures.

Government policies, including the termination of EV incentives, the pause on charging infrastructure funding, and the rollback of EV mandates, are projected to slow the growth of EVs in the United States over the next 5 years. US EV manufacturers will find the going increasingly challenging as the reliance on imported lithium-ion batteries and rare earth elements, most of which come from China and other Asian suppliers, will mean higher costs.

As uncertainty continues to swirl, questions loom about how the highly intertwined, hyper-globalized automotive industry will be affected. What will the future hold for both domestic and foreign automakers, manufacturing output, component suppliers, supply chains, and consumers?

This inflationary effect, coupled with the dial back on EV incentives, may artificially extend ICE dominance in the short term but will weaken their global competitiveness over the long term. Overall, as automakers divert capital toward tariff mitigation and supply chain restructuring, rather than R&D, innovation in transformative technologies, including electrification, will lose out.

Consumers have yet to feel the impact of tariff increases on auto parts in terms of higher prices. This is due in part to competitive pressures and strategic decisions taken by automakers. However, this scenario is poised to change as competitive pressures diminish and companies seek to maintain profitability.

In drawing up roadmaps for the future, automakers are poised to reassess their auto parts sourcing strategies and manufacturing footprint. Many are turning to regionalized production and supply chains in a bid to minimize tariff exposure and maintain cost competitiveness in the long term.

Scope of Analysis

• In 2025, the global trade and economic growth momentum is forecast to be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States.
• Following 3.2% real GDP growth in 2024, the global economy will likely maintain 3.2% to 3.3% annual growth momentum through to 2028, with emerging markets (EMs) retaining their leaderboard positions in terms of economic growth.
• Our baseline scenario considers President Trump's 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, alongside proportional retaliatory tariffs from Mexico and Canada.
• Our conservative scenario assumes between 25% and 35% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, 60%+ tariffs on Chinese imports, 10% to 20% blanket tariffs on all imports, and 200%+ tariffs on car imports from Mexico. Approximately 50% to 60% tariffs on key US exports and 10% to 25% tariffs from Canada, Mexico, and the EU are assumed as part of retaliatory moves.
• Between 2025 and 2028, within the base case, the impact on GDP will remain muted with key Asian EMs buoying global demand and economic growth. However, in the conservative scenario, adverse and protracted trade wars can potentially shave off 1.5% from global GDP growth in 2028, push global inflation beyond 6.0%, and induce a multiquarter recession in economies such as the United States, Canada, Colombia, Mexico, Germany, and South Korea.

Research Scope

Content Present in Points

• Companies to Action
• Best Practices
• Frost Radar
• Growth Opportunities
• Growth Generator
• Transformation
• Ecosystem

Table of Contents

Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative
• Strategic Imperatives

Growth Environment

• Key Takeaways
• Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028
• Impact of Trump 2.0 Tariffs on the Automotive Industry
• Dependence of Key Automakers' US Sales on Imports
• Tariff Impact on Vehicle MSRP-Analysis of Ford F-150 Model
• Impact of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminium-Analysis of Toyota Camry
• Reaction of Key OEMs to US Tariffs

Overview of Trump 2.0 Policies and Their Macroeconomic Impact

• Executive Orders Issued by US Presidents in the First 100 Days
• List of Key Executive Orders Issued by Donald Trump
• Global Growth to Slow from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025 Under the Baseline Tariff Scenario
• Tariff Wars to Further Diversify and Decentralize Supply Chain Strategies
• Global Growth to Slow to 2.8%, Avoiding a Recession in 2025; Weaker China to Weigh on APAC Growth

Analysis of Policies Impacting the Automotive Sector

• Executive Orders with Possible Implications for the Automotive Sector
• Policies Specific to Vehicle Imports
• Impact of Trump 2.0 Policies on the US EV Market

The Impact of US Tariffs on Mexico's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Mexico to the United States
• Light Vehicle Exports into the United States from Mexico
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Mexico
• Key Transmission and Assembly Plants in Mexico
• Tariffs on Mexico and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on Canada's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Canada to the United States
• Canada's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on Canada
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Canada
• Tariffs on Canada and Impact on the Automotive Sector-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on China's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from China to the United States
• China's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on China
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in China
• Key OEMs' China Impact Analysis
• Tariffs on China and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on Germany's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Germany to the United States
• Germany's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on Germany
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Germany
• Key OEMs' Germany Impact Analysis
• Tariffs on Germany and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on South Korea's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from South Korea to the United States
• South Korea's Automotive Production Landscape
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in South Korea
• OEM Models Dependent on South Korea
• Tariffs on South Korea and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on Japan's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Japan to the United States
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Japan
• Japan's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on Japan
• Tariffs on Japan and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Recalibrate the Supply Chain
• Growth Opportunity 2: Reassess the Powertrain Strategy for the United States
• Growth Opportunity 3: Focus on Innovation to Save Costs

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer