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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1892127
后关税时代的大趋势Megatrends in a Post-Tariff World |
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对不断变化的地缘政治格局的前瞻性观点
美国于2025年推出的史无前例的关税引发了全球贸易衝突，导致贸易量急剧萎缩、供应链大范围中断，并引发了国际商业惯例的根本性重组。随着美国平均关税税率飙升至近一个世纪以来的最高水平，世界各国政府和企业迅速做出战略决策，以期在不断变化的环境中占据有利地位。中国、欧盟、印度和亚洲工业中心等主要贸易伙伴面临一系列报復性关税，迫使企业透过分散化和多元化的生产模式以及新的区域贸易集团来实现生产多元化，从而降低成本和风险。
《后关税时代》探讨了这些系统性衝击引发的宏观趋势和策略转变。全球供应链正从效率驱动型模式转向韧性驱动设计，并日益依赖人工智慧、物联网和区块链等技术创新来提升营运效率。经营模式正在重组，需要专业的金融服务来帮助应对市场波动和价格压力。随着贸易碎片化加剧，一些国家（与美国形成鲜明对比）正在加速投资清洁能源和绿色关税，在保护主义抬头的背景下，永续性的重要性也在重新定义。社会演变的特征是消费者民族中心主义的增强和高技能劳动力的涌现，这推动了国内采购和区域市场合作的趋势。
本报告概述了从贸易战和市场碎片化到协同创新生态系统兴起等前瞻性情景。最终，适应后关税时代需要将技术整合、永续性以及灵活驾驭动态全球网路的能力进行策略性融合，使企业能够在新的结构性变革中生存并蓬勃发展。
目录
议程
后关税时代趋势催生变革性成长
- 为什么经济成长变得越来越困难？
- 战略要务
- 我们的大趋势宇宙概览
- 我们的大趋势宇宙—关税后趋势
- 主要发现
生态系－关税后趋势
- 2025年美国关税
在后关税时代转型生态系统和经营模式
- 后关税时代新经营模式的涌现
- 用例分析
后关税时代的生态系统和环境优先事项
- 后关税时代的环境优先事项
- 用例分析
后关税时代的生态系统与经济变化
- 后关税时代的经济变革
- 用例分析
后关税时代的生态系与技术发展
- 后关税时代的技术进步
- 用例分析
后关税时代的生态系与社会演化
- 后关税时代的社会演变
- 用例分析
后关税时代生态系：前瞻性展望
- 关税情势的未来情景
- 情境一——贸易战再起
- 情境二——新贸易集团的形成
- 情景三——策略贸易协定
- 场景 4 – 技术模组
成长机会－趋势吸引力分析
- 趋势吸引力分析
成长机会分析
- 趋势、机会、影响分析与确定性分析
- 趋势机会革新指数
- 突破性吸引力评分
- 趋势机会成长指数
- 成长吸引力评分
- BEETS将如何影响关税后的发展
成长机会领域
- 成长机会1：数位主权
- 成长机会2：利用生技保障药品安全
- 成长机会3：基于区块链的贸易透明度
成长机会分析－成长的关键成功因素
- 成长的关键成功因素
- 结论
附录
- 我们的大趋势宇宙
下一步
- 成长机会带来的益处和影响
- 下一步
- 图表清单
- 免责声明
Visionary Perspective of the Changing Geopolitical Situations
The unprecedented US tariff measures introduced in 2025 have triggered a global trade conflict, resulting in sharp contractions of trade volumes, extensive supply chain disruptions, and a profound reconfiguration of international business practices. With US average tariff rates surging to their highest levels in nearly a century, governments and businesses globally have made quick strategic decisions to utilize the changing ecosystem to its best potential. Major trading partners, such as China, the EU, India, and Asian industrial hubs, have faced retaliatory tariff cycles, compelling firms to diversify production through decentralized, diverse manufacturing models and new regional trade blocs that mitigate costs and risks.
The "Post-Tariff World" explores the megatrends and strategic shifts catalyzed by these systemic shocks. Global supply chains have shifted away from efficiency-driven models toward resiliency-focused designs, with a heightened reliance on technological advancements (such as AI, IoT, and blockchain) to enhance operational productivity. Business models have been reinvented, implying tailored financial services that help manage volatility and price pressures. As trade fragmentation deepens, few countries (as opposed to the US) accelerate investments in clean energy and green tariffs, reshaping the sustainability imperative in a world of heightened protectionism. Social evolutions are characterized by consumer ethnocentrism and intensified workforce upskilling, supporting the trend toward domestic sourcing and regionally aligned markets.
This report outlines visionary scenarios ranging from trade wars and fragmentation to the rise of collaborative innovation ecosystems. Ultimately, adapting to the post-tariff world demands a strategic blend of technology integration, sustainability leadership, and agile navigation of dynamic global networks, positioning businesses to survive and thrive amid new structural transformations.
Table of Contents
Agenda
Transformational Growth Emerging from Post-Tariff Trends
- Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
- The Strategic Imperative
- Our Megatrend Universe-Overview
- Our Megatrend Universe-Post-Tariff Trends
- Key Findings
Ecosystem-Post-Tariff Trends
- Evolution of US Tariffs in 2025
Ecosystem-Business Model Transformations in the Post-Tariff World
- Emerging Business Models in the Post-Tariff World
- Use Case Analysis
Ecosystem-Environmental Priorities in the Post-Tariff World
- Environmental Priorities in the Post-Tariff World
- Use Case Analysis
Ecosystem-Economic Shifts in the Post-Tariff World
- Economic Shifts in the Post-Tariff World
- Use Case Analysis
Ecosystem-Technology Advancements in the Post-Tariff World
- Technology Advancements in the Post-Tariff World
- Use Case Analysis
Ecosystem-Social Evolutions in the Post-Tariff World
- Social Evolution in the Post-Tariff World
- Use Case Analysis
Ecosystem-Visionary Scenarios of the Post-Tariff World
- Future Scenarios of Tariff Situation
- Scenario 1-Resurgence of Trade Wars
- Scenario 2-New Trade Blocs
- Scenario 3-Strategic Trade Agreements
- Scenario 4-Techno Blocs
Growth Generator-Trend Attractiveness Analysis
- Trend Attractiveness Analysis
Growth Opportunity Analysis
- Trend Opportunity Impact and Certainty Analysis
- Trend Opportunity Disruption Index
- Trend Disruption Attractiveness Score
- Trend Opportunity Growth Index
- Growth Attractiveness Score
- BEETS Implications for Post-Tariff Trends
Growth Opportunity Universe
- Growth Opportunity 1: Digital Sovereignty
- Growth Opportunity 2: Biotech-Powered Pharma Security
- Growth Opportunity 3: Blockchain Based Trade Transparency
Growth Opportunity Analysis-Critical Success Factors for Growth
- Critical Success Factors for Growth
- Conclusion
Appendix
- Our Megatrend Universe
Next Steps
- Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
- Next Steps
- List of Exhibits
- Legal Disclaimer
