永续航空燃油市场－航空业的前进之路

Sustainable aviation fuel is the way forward for aviation industry

出版日期: 2023年12月23日 | 出版商:

GlobalData | 英文 26 Pages | 订单完成后即时交付

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永续航空燃料 (SAF) 整体产量预计在 10 年内将超过 6,000 mmgy，2018 年至 2030 年复合年增长率为 49.8%。

为了满足产业脱碳的需要，越来越多的国家宣布 SAF 指令。英国和日本宣布了最雄心勃勃的目标，目标是到 2030 年 SAF 比例达到 10%。然而，美国将成为SAF供需的主要市场。

燃料生产方面的产业公司，如 Neste、Gevo 和 World Energy，预计到 2030 年将引领 SAF 生产。同时，许多航空公司已製定到 2050 年实现净零排放的目标，并计划在 2030 年将 SAF 的使用率提高至 10%。

航空业是人均排放量成长的最大贡献者，预计到 2050 年乘客数量将翻一番，达到 80 亿人次。国际航空运输协会（IATA）也宣布了到 2050 年实现净零排放的目标。 IATA 拥有超过 300 家会员航空公司，预计占航空运输量的 83%。 IATA 估计，65% 的减排量将透过采用永续航空燃料 (SAF) 来实现。

随着 SAF 产量的扩大，对原料的需求可能会超过供应，尤其是废油，其产量较低，可能面临来自再生柴油生产商的竞争。

到2050年，将回收的二氧化碳转化为液体燃料的技术将达到成熟，二氧化碳可望成为最大的原料。

本报告审视了全球永续航空燃油市场，并解释了民航部门脱碳的挑战以及 SAF 在实现减排方面的潜在作用。它还分析了行业挑战、关键技术转变和主要进入者。

航空业对气候变迁的贡献
新加坡武装部队简报
SAF 市场挑战
ASTM 核准的 SAF 製造路线
SAF 生产经历技术改造
从长远来看，电转液技术将有助于扩大 SAF
政策展望
SAF 混合义务摘要
其他措施与政策制定
需求与供给预测
基于正在进行和即将开展的项目的 SAF 生产前景
2030 年产能最大的 SAF 项目
按地区划分的 SAF 供应预测
主要需求市场
进入 SAF 产业的公司
SAF 当前和未来的市场领导者
SAF 在航空业的实施目标
讯号
公司文件中提及 SAF 的次数不断增加
SAF 在石油和天然气领域的贸易活动概述
联络我们

简介目录图表

Abstract

This report provides an overview of the global commercial aviation sector's decarbonization challenge and the potential role SAFs will play in achieving emission reduction. The report analyses sector challenges, important technological shifts, and key players.

To spur emission reductions from the sector, organizations such as the ICAO and the ITAO have set a target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have been identified as a key technology for achieving emission reductions.

There are currently 9 pathways for producing SAFs that are certified by the IATA. However, hydrotreatment remains the dominant pathway for the bulk of current SAF production. As SAF production scales, alternative pathways will become more prominent, particularly alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) and power to liquid (PtL) technologies.

Overall SAF production is expected to exceed 6,000mmgy by the end of the decade, increasing at a CAGR of 49.8% between 2018 and 2030.

In response to the industry's need to decarbonize, an increasing number of countries have announced SAF mandates. The most ambitious targets have been announced by the UK and Japan which are both aiming for a SAF blend of 10% by 2030. However, the US will be the key market both in terms of SAF supply and demand.

Industry players on the fuel production side such as Neste, Gevo, and World Energy will lead in terms of SAF production by 2030. Meanwhile, numerous airlines have adopted the net-zero by 2050 target and are aiming to increase their SAF usage to 10% by 2030.

Key Highlights

Aviation represents the largest contributor to growth in per capita emissions and with passenger numbers expected to double, reaching 8 billion by 2050, the sector now needs to urgently address its environmental impact.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has also announced its aim of reaching net-zero by 2050. The IATA represents over 300 members and constitutes an estimated 83% of air traffic. It has said that it expects 65% of emission reduction to be met through the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).
Demand for feedstocks may outpace supply as SAF production scales, particularly for waste oils where volumes are low and competition with renewable diesel producers could take place.
In 2050, CO2 will be the largest feedstock as power to liquid technologies that use captured carbon dioxide reach maturity.
According to GlobalData's current database of active and upcoming projects, synthetic fuel production could reach up to 7,200 ktpa by 2030 as the number of projects reaches 68.
The SAF Certificate Registry was launched at COP28, allowing companies to buy credible SAF certificates that represent conventional fuel being displaced.
Despite neither the US or Canada having a blending mandate, North America will become the dominant market for SAF supply by 2030, where it will account for 10.8 Mt of annual SAF production. This equates to 39% of global supply.
The key oil and gas players within the SAF market will experience a shake up. While China Petrochemical Corp currently stands joint first in terms of current capacity due to its Zhenai Renewable refinery, it will lose this market positioning in 2030 to new market entrants such as Oriental Energy.

Scope

Carbon footprint of aviation sector
Emission reduction potential of SAFs
ASTM approved SAF production pathways
Emerging SAF production pathways
SAF production outlook and key supply and demand markets
SAF production capacity by country
Oil and gas sector activity within SAFs

Reasons to Buy

Understand the key trends and challenges within the SAFs market
Identify the key countries and players for SAF production capacity.
Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
Understand how the oil and gas sector is engaging with this technology through upcoming capacity as well as alternative datasets such as deals, hiring and company filings trends.