能源转换的全球电力混合(2022年～2030年)

Global Power Mix in Transition - 2022 -2030

出版日期: 2024年06月19日 | 出版商:

GlobalData | 英文 30 Pages | 订单完成后即时交付

价格

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简介目录

总体而言，到 2035 年，电力结构预计将发生重大变化。强有力的政策支持、财政激励和改进的技术将提高再生能源相对于传统火力发电的竞争力。因此，再生能源在电力结构中的份额预计将大幅增加，到 2035 年将达到 49%。

太阳能已成为最大的单一再生电力来源，预计到 2035 年将占电力结构的 20%。然而，风力发电也将成长，2023年至2035年离岸风电领域的复合年增长率为18%。然而，儘管存在这些成长趋势，预计到 2035 年火力发电将占发电总量的 42%。

经济从火力发电转向的速度预计会因地区而异。 2023年至2035年，拉丁美洲再生能源发电率将维持在70%以上，并持续拥有最干净的地区能源结构。欧洲、北美和亚太地区也将在增加再生能源发电份额方面取得重大进展。然而，预计到2035年，中东和非洲将继续严重依赖火力发电。

氢和储能等技术将促进再生能源的采用。预计这两种技术将在本世纪末呈现强劲成长，但与再生能源发电一样，市场准入预计因地区而异。

本报告提供全球电力混合调查分析，提供各地区的能源混合，及各电力技术趋势等资讯。

主要亮点

儘管技术不断发展，效率不断提高，但从 2023 年到 2035 年，全球能源需求仍将以 3.4% 的复合年增长率继续增长。
再生能源在全球电力结构中的份额将继续增加，预计 2023 年至 2035 年发电量将以 4.1% 的复合年增长率增长。
然而，儘管再生能源发电有所增加，但到 2035 年，煤炭仍将是最主要的单一能源，预计将占全球电力结构的 21%，而太阳能预计将略高于此。
预计亚太地区发电量将呈现强劲成长，2023 年至 2035 年复合年增长率为 4.5%。造成这现象的主要因素是人口成长。
太阳能、地热能和生物发电仍然是每千瓦计画成本最高的领域。
预计2027年天然气发电容量增幅最大，今年新增发电容量106吉瓦。

Overall, the power mix is expected to undergo significant changes in the run up to 2035. Strong policy support, financial incentives and technology improvement will improve the competitiveness of renewable energy compared to traditional thermal power. As a result, the presence of renewables in the power mix is expected to increase dramatically, reaching 49% by 2035.

Solar PV will emerge as the largest single source of renewable power, alone accounting for 20% of the power mix in 2035. However, wind power will also experience growth, with the offshore wind power segment experiencing a CAGR of 18% between 2023 and 2035. However, despite these growth trends, thermal power is still expected to account for 42% of the generation mix in 2035.

The rate at which economies shift away from thermal power will vary strongly by region. South and Central America will continue to have the cleanest regional energy mix, maintaining renewable generation rates of over 70% between 2023 and 2035. Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific will also make significant progress towards increasing their share of renewable generation. However, the Middle East & Africa (MEA) region will remain largely reliant on thermal power through to 2035.

The adoption of renewables will be facilitated by technologies such as hydrogen and energy storage, which will both help to tackle the challenge of renewable intermittency. Both of these technologies are expected to experience strong growth before the end of the decade, but similarly to renewable generation, market participation will vary strongly with region.

Key Highlights

Despite technological development and increasing efficiency, global energy demand will continue to rise between 2023 and 2035, increasing at a CAGR of 3.4% between 2023 and 2035.
Renewables will continue to hold an increasing share of the global power mix, with generation increasing at a CAGR of 4.1% between 2023 and 2035.
However, despite the ramp up of renewable generation, coal will still remain the most dominant single source of energy into 2035, where it will marginally exceed solar, with an expected 21% share of the global power mix.
APAC will experience a strong growth in its power generation, increasing at a CAGR of 4.5% between 2023 and 2035. This will be chiefly driven by its increasing population.
Solar thermal, geothermal, and biopower will continue to have some of the highest project costs per kW.
2027 is currently expected to see the biggest rise in natural gas generation capacity, with an addition of 106GW of capacity being added in this year.

Scope

Global power generation analysis
Regional power generation analysis
Generation trends by sub-technology
Average project costs and investment by technology
Generation trend analysis by technology
Upcoming thermal capacity and decommissioning
Emerging technologies such as energy storage and hydrogen

Reasons to Buy

Identify the market trends globally and by region by each of the power technologies.
Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
Understand the region's different power landscapes by 2035.
Understand technology by technology macroeconomics and market.
Facilitate the understanding on how and where the market is growing as it is rapidly scaling up to position as one of the main topics of the international and regional agenda.