石油和天然气产业的低碳燃料策略

Oil and Gas Sector Strategies for Low-Carbon Fuels

出版日期: 2024年10月03日 | 出版商:

GlobalData | 英文 42 Pages | 订单完成后即时交付

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简介目录图表

石油和天然气产业面临政府和投资者要求其脱碳和产品多样化的压力。再生柴油、SAF 和合成燃料等低碳燃料使石油和天然气行业能够继续为现有消费品行业提供产品和服务，同时实现资产多元化并减少老化的基础设施，我们提供了一条降低风险的脱碳之路。

石油和天然气产业目前面临许多课题，但脱碳和产品多元化的压力可以说是最大的。这是由于对气候变迁和政府增加碳税的担忧，威胁到石油和天然气公司的利润。这种压力也来自于投资者对产业长期获利能力的担忧。事实上，World Economic Forum预测石油需求将在 2030 年至 2035 年间达到高峰。

再生柴油、SAF 和合成燃料等低碳燃料使石油产业能够继续为现有消费品产业提供产品和服务，同时实现资产多元化并降低基础设施老化的风险。

石油和天然气公司正在探索多种策略来进入低碳燃料市场。其中之一是透过协同处理或重复利用现有设备，将现有炼油厂改造为生产再生柴油和 SAF。另一条途径是对再生独立炼油厂进行长期投资。儘管该炼油厂需要较高的初始投资，但它可以扩大到比协同处理或转化炼油厂高得多的产能。

再生独立专案贡献了再生柴油和 SAF 产能的大部分，预计到 2030 年将占再生能源炼油厂总产能的 64%。同时，石油和天然气公司必须与氢气供应商合作或投资自己的氢气生产设施来生产合成燃料。

这些低碳燃料的产量预计都会增加，但目前每种燃料都面临着与传统燃料相比不具成本竞争力的课题。近年来，对低碳燃料的投资也有所放缓，因为最近对化石燃料的需求激增使石油和天然气公司对该行业的长寿更有信心。

整体而言，SAF成长最为强劲，2020年至2035年产量复合年增长率为44%，使其成为油气产业充满希望的发展领域。另一方面，再生柴油产能预计同期复合年增长率仅为9%，因为其中部分产能将转移至SAF。由于需求预计下降，再生柴油在未来十年可能面临供应过剩的课题。最后，到 2030 年，生产课题可能会使合成燃料成为石油和天然气公司最不喜欢的再生燃料。

主要亮点

到 2030 年，三种类型的再生能源炼油厂（原油炼油厂转化、协同处理和再生独立炼油厂）的产能预计将继续增加。
预计2024年至2030年，原油炼油厂转化和原油炼油协同处理能力将以14%的复合年增长率成长。
再生能源独立发电量成长率最高，2024年至2030年复合年增长率为30%。
2024 年至 2030 年间，所有三种炼油厂类型的产能都将转向 SAF，而不是 RD。
2020-2032年，研发生产和消费的复合年增长率将分别达到12%和12.5%的高峰。
2020年至2035年，全球SAF产量和消费量预计将以44%的复合年增长率成长。
低碳氢化合物合成燃料产量预计将持续成长，2025年至2030年复合年增长率预计为58%，2030年产能快速成长（每年超过1,000万吨）。

本报告审视和分析了全球石油和天然气产业，提供了低碳燃料策略、生物燃料的法律框架以及每种再生燃料的市场前景。

The oil and gas industry is facing pressures from both governments and investors to decarbonize and diversify its products. Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.

The oil and gas industry currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products is arguably the largest. This is due to climate concerns, as well as increasing carbon tax imposed by governments, which threatens oil and gas companies' profits. This pressure also comes from investors, who are concerned with the long-term profitability of the industry. In fact, the World Economic Forum forecasts oil demand to peak between 2030 and 2035.

Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.

There are a number of strategies that oil and gas players are exploring to branch into the low carbon fuels market. One pathway includes producing renewable diesel and SAFs through coprocessing or the conversion of existing refineries by repurposing existing equipment. Another pathway includes long-term investments into renewable standalone refineries, which require greater upfront capital but can scale production to far higher capacities than co-processing and conversion refineries.

Renewable standalone projects are expected to contribute the bulk of the production capacity for renewable diesel and SAFs, accounting for 64% of the overall renewable refinery capacity in 2030. Meanwhile, oil and gas players will need to engage with hydrogen suppliers or invest in their own hydrogen production facilities to produce synthetic fuels.

The production of each of these low-carbon fuels is expected to increase, but all come with their own set of challenges, namely that they are currently not cost-competitive compared to conventional fuels. A surge in fossil fuel demand in recent years has also led oil and gas companies to gain more confidence surrounding the industry's longevity, leading to a recent slowdown in low-carbon fuel investments.

Overall, SAFs will experience the strongest growth, with production increasing at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035 and, as a result, represent a promising area of development for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, renewable diesel production will increase at a smaller CAGR of 9% across the same time frame, as some of its capacity will be diverted to SAFs. RD may also face oversupply challenges in the next decade, due to a predicted decrease in its demand. Lastly, production challenges will see synthetic fuels as the renewable fuel picked the least by oil and gas companies in the run-up to 2030.

Key Highlights

Capacities for all three types of renewable refineries (crude oil refinery conversion, coprocessing and renewable standalone) are forecast to keep increasing through to 2030.
Crude refinery conversion and crude refinery co-processing capacities are both set to grow at a CAGR of 14% between 2024 and 2030.
Renewable standalone capacity is growing at the highest rate, with a CAGR of 30% between 2024 and 2030.
For all three types of refineries, between 2024 and 2030, a shift can be witnessed where capacity is increasingly being devoted to SAFs as opposed to RD.
RD production and consumption are both set to grow at a CAGR of 12% and 12.5%, respectively, between 2020 and 2032, where they are set to reach a peak.
Global SAF production and consumption are both set to grow at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035.
Synthetic fuel production from low-carbon hydrogen is set to keep growing, with a positive CAGR of 58% between 2025 and 2030, with a spike in capacity in 2030 (over 10mtpa).

Scope

Oil and gas sector strategies for low-carbon fuels;
Legislative framework for biofuels, with specific focus on RD and SAF;
Sector strategies for transitioning into renewable fuels, including refinery retrofitting;
Crude oil refinery conversion and coprocessing vs renewable standalone
Renewable diesel: market outlook and leaders
SAFs: market outlook and leaders
Synthetic fuels: market outlook and leaders

Reasons to Buy

Identify decarbonizing market trends within the oil and gas sector, including the analysis of the strategies that the biggest industry players are implementing.
Develop market insight of the major technologies and pathways used to decarbonize the industry, including refinery retrofitting as well as investment into standalone refineries, with focus on renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels, and synthetic fuels.
Identify the key policies driving development and which countries have the most established legislative framework for said technologies.
Facilitate the understanding of what is predicted to happen in the renewable fuels market within the next decade.

Executive summary
Legislative framework for biofuels
Sector strategies for transitioning into renewable fuels
Crude oil refinery conversion and coprocessing vs renewable standalone
Renewable diesel: market outlook and leaders
SAFs: market outlook and leaders
Synthetic fuels: market outlook and leaders
Key takeaways

简介目录图表

List of Tables

Oil and gas focus areas in the low carbon fuels market
Current key oil and gas players in the biofuels market
Crude refinery conversion and co-processing: pros and cons for refiners
Crude refineries converted and co-processing active and upcoming projects
Crude refineries for renewable standalone active and upcoming
The largest renewable diesel projects by their 2030 capacity
The largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
RD, SAF and synthetic fuel development stage

List of Figures

Renewable refineries capacity by type, 2024-2030
Renewable refineries by project count, 2024-2030
CAPEX across renewable refineries types
Leading renewable fuel producers in 2024 YTD (conversion and coprocessing)
Predicted renewable fuel producers in 2030 (conversion and coprocessing)
Leading renewable fuel companies in 2024 YTD (renewable standalone)
Leading renewable fuel companies in 2030 (renewable standalone)
RD production by region, 2020-2035
RD consumption by region, 2020-2035
Top 5 companies for RD production by capacity, 2024
Top 5 companies for RD production by capacity, 2030
Top 10 non-oil and gas companies by mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
Top 10 oil and gas companies by mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
Mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
SAF production by region, 2020-2035
SAF consumption by region, 2020-2035
Top 5 companies for SAF production by capacity, 2024
Top 5 companies for SAF production by capacity, 2030
Top 10 non-oil and gas companies by mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
Top 10 oil and gas companies by mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
Mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
Upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuels and project count, 2025-2030
Top 5 companies for synthetic fuel production by capacity, 2024
Top 5 companies for synthetic fuel production by capacity, 2030