全球大型上游企业基准（2025 年）

市场概览

市场正从传统的油气营运向综合能源解决方案转型，各细分市场和公司的发展情况不尽相同。液化天然气 (LNG) 和再生能源领域的投资尤其受到关注。

主要发现

• 产量与储量：预计到 2026 年，大型上游企业的石油产量将超过 200 万桶油当量/日 (mboed)，高于 2024 年的 180 万桶油当量/日。儘管 2025 年各公司的业绩将有所不同，但预计所有大型企业都将成长。

财务绩效

• 美国大型企业的股价和利润率最高，而 RLI 则在下降。
• 欧洲大型企业的槓桿率高，利润率和每股盈余 (EPS) 较低。 儘管勘探开发比率各不相同，但它们都拥有高风险但多元化程度较高的投资组合。
• 投资策略：道达尔能源和壳牌在项目广度方面领先，拥有众多即将启动的项目，而美国超级石油公司则专注于数量较少但价值较高的项目。

未来展望

超级石油公司预计大宗商品价格将持续波动，并面临液化天然气供应过剩和油价长期低迷的风险。预计它们将透过优化投资组合来应对这些挑战，重点关注低成本、高利润的资产，并扩大液化天然气产能。策略重点可能会转向提高营运和投资组合效率，这可能会与脱碳目标产生权衡。此外，它们还将关注新兴市场以及勘探和生产技术的发展。

本报告分析了全球油气产业，重点关註七家主要公司的业绩：埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、壳牌、英国石油、道达尔能源、埃尼和康菲石油，并揭示了疫情后復苏的特点：大宗商品价格波动、资本纪律以及股东优先事项的转变。

目录

第一章：摘要整理

• 市场概览
• 主要发现
• 预测

第二章：研究方法

第三章：上游关键指标基准分析

• 油气产量
• 油气总产量
• 油气储量
• 按地区划分的总储量区域
• 依资源类型划分的储量
• 依地理位置划分的储量
• 依专案阶段划分的原油和凝析油储量
• 依专案阶段划分的天然气储量
• 储量指数
• 可采年限
• 储量替代率
• 上游支出
• 油气资产组合
• 地理分布
• 产量HHI集中度
• 垂直整合
• 概述

第四章 财务指标基准分析

• 股票表现与估值
• 股票表现
• 本益比
• 现金流
• 上游营运收入
• 每桶营运现金流
• 利润
• 净利润率
• 每股盈余
• 投资报酬率已投入资本
• 流动性和债务
• 速动比率
• 净负债权益比

第五章：上游营运指标基准分析

• 投资组合经济学
• 内部报酬率 (IRR)
• 投资回收期
• 净现值
• 上游成本和收入
• 每桶成本
• 每桶净收益
• 上游平均价格
• 损益平衡价格
• 上游资本支出分配
• 开发週期

第六章：最终投资决策 (FID)、预测与资产层面分析

• 最终投资决策 (FID)
• 最终投资决策 (FID)
• 已核准的资本支出
• 资产分析
• 石油资产
• 天然气和一体化液化天然气资产

第七章：风险敞口与缓解

• GlobalData上游风险指数
• 监管与地缘政治发展
• 价格衝击敏感度

第八章：ESG（环境、社会与治理）

• 脱碳目标
• 上游排放

The 2025 Global Upstream Benchmark of Supermajors report provides a comprehensive analysis of the oil and gas sector, focusing on the performance of seven major companies: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, and ConocoPhillips. The report highlights a post-pandemic recovery phase, characterized by fluctuating commodity prices, capital discipline and shifting shareholder priorities. The market is witnessing a mixed transition from traditional oil and gas operations to integrated energy solutions, with a significant emphasis on LNG and renewable energy investments, with varying levels of success across segments and companies.

Market overview

The 2025 Global Upstream Benchmark of Supermajors report provides a comprehensive analysis of the oil and gas sector, focusing on the performance of seven major companies: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, and ConocoPhillips. The report highlights a post-pandemic recovery phase, characterized by fluctuating commodity prices, capital discipline and shifting shareholder priorities. The market is witnessing a mixed transition from traditional oil and gas operations to integrated energy solutions, with a significant emphasis on LNG and renewable energy investments, with varying levels of success across segments and companies.

Key findings

• Production and Reserves: Total upstream entitlement across the supermajors to increase from 18 mboed in 2024 to over 20 by 2026, with all supermajors set for growth despite mixed 2025.

Financial Performance -

• US. supermajors combine the highest share prices, margins and declining RLI.
• European supermajors display higher leverage and lower margins and EPS, with mixed E/P ratios but a healthy diversified portfolio, despite higher risk.
• Investment Strategies: TotalEnergies and Shell lead in project breadth with numerous upcoming projects, while American supermajors focus on fewer, high-value projects.

Looking ahead

The report notes how supermajors anticipate continued volatility in commodity prices, but display exposure to an LNG glut and prolonged low oil prices. Companies are expected to navigate these challenges by optimizing their portfolios, focusing on low-cost, high-margin assets, and expanding their LNG capabilities. The strategic emphasis will likely shift towards enhancing operational & portfolio efficiency, presenting trade-offs for decarbonization targets, with a keen eye on emerging markets and E&P technological developments.

Key Highlights

Production and Reserves -

• Total upstream entitlement across the supermajors to increase from 18 mboed in 2024 to over 20 by 2026, with all supermajors set for growth despite mixed 2025.

Financial Performance -

• US. supermajors combine the highest share prices, margins and declining RLI.
• European supermajors display higher leverage and lower margins and EPS, with mixed E/P ratios but a healthy diversified portfolio, despite higher risk.
• Investment Strategies:
• TotalEnergies and Shell lead in project breadth with numerous upcoming projects, while American supermajors focus on fewer, high-value projects.

Scope

• Upstream operational, financial, ESG and risk benchmar of Oil & Gas Supermajors

Reasons to Buy

• Benchmark Supermajors: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni and ConocoPhillips.
• Assess Oil & Gas Supermajors' key production and reserves metrics, financial indicators, operational metrics benchmarking, ESG target performance and risk exposure.
• Identify business strategies, performance and market opportunities.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

• 1.1 Market overview
• 1.2 Key findings
• 1.3 Looking ahead

2 Methodology

3 Key Upstream Metrics Benchmarking

• 3.1 Oil & Gas Production
• Total Oil & Gas Production
• 3.2 Oil & Gas Reserves
• Total Entitled Reserves by Region
• Reserves by Resource Type
• Reserves by Terrain
• Crude Oil & Condensate Reserves by Project Stage
• Natural Gas Reserves by Project Stage
• 3.3 Reserve Indexes
• Reserves Life Index
• Reserve Replacement Ratio
• 3.4 Upstream Spending
• 3.5 Oil & Gas Portfolio
• Geographical split
• Production HHI concentration
• Vertical Integration
• 3.6 Overview

4 Financial Metrics Benchmarking

• 4.1 Stock Performance & Valuation
• Share Price Performance
• Stock Price to Net-Income
• 4.2 Cashflow
• Upstream Operating revenue
• Operating Cashflow per boe
• 4.3 Returns
• Net Profit Margin
• Earnings Per Share
• Return on Capital Employed
• 4.4 Liquidity & Debt
• Quick Ratio
• Net-Debt-to-Equity

5 Upstream Operational Metrics Benchmarking

• 5.1 Portfolio Economics
• IRR
• Payback years
• Net Present Value
• 5.2 Cost & Revenue of Upstream Operations
• Cost per barrel
• Net-back per boe
• Average Upstream prices
• Breakeven prices
• 5.3 Upstream Capex Allocation
• 5.4 Development Times

6 FIDs, projections & Asset-Level Analysis

• 6.1 Final Investment Decisions (FIDs)
• FIDs
• Capex Sanctioned
• 6.2 Asset Analysis
• 6.3 Oil Assets
• 6.4 Gas & Integrated LNG Assets

7 Risk Exposure & Mitigation

• 7.1 GlobalData Upstream Risk Index
• 7.2 Regulatory and Geopolitical Landscape
• 7.3 Sensitivity to price shocks

8 ESG

• 8.1 Decarbonization targets
• 8.2 Upstream Emissions

List of Table

List of Tables

• Table 1: Production, Reserves and Capex Overview
• Table 2: Asset Commentary

List of Figure

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Total Oil & Gas Production Entitlement (mboed)
• Figure 2: Total Remaining Entitled Reserves by Region (boed)
• Figure 3: Total Remaining Entitled Reserves by Region
• Figure 4: Total Remaining Entitled Reserves by Terrain (boed)
• Figure 5: Crude Oil and Condensate Remaining Entitled Reserves (billion bls)
• Figure 6: Natural Gas Remaining Entitled Reserves (tcf)
• Figure 7: Reserves Life Index (RLI)
• Figure 8: Reserve Replacement Ratio RRR
• Figure 9: Upstream Capex as % of Cashflow, by Company & Year
• Figure 10: Oil & Gas Production Entitlement by Country
• Figure 11: Production Concentration Index (HHI)
• Figure 12: Oil & Gas Income by Market Segment (million $)
• Figure 13: Share Price (year-end)
• Figure 14: Stock Price to Net-Income
• Figure 15: Upstream Operating Revenue (million $)
• Figure 16: Operating Cashflow per boe
• Figure 17: Net Profit Margin
• Figure 18: Earnings per Share
• Figure 19: Return on Capital Employed (ROCE%)
• Figure 20: Quick Ratio
• Figure 21: Net-Debt-to-Equity
• Figure 22: Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of Upstream Projects
• Figure 23: Payback Years vs Number of New Projects
• Figure 24: Net Present Value of Upstream Projects
• Figure 25: Capex and Opex per barrel of oil equivalent
• Figure 26: Net-back per barrel of oil equivalent
• Figure 27: Average Realized Oil & Gas Price-Without Hedge ($/boe)
• Figure 28: Upstream Oil Break-even Price (avg)
• Figure 29: BP Upstream Capex Allocation (e)
• Figure 30: Chevron Upstream Capex Allocation (e)
• Figure 31: ConocoPhillips Upstream Capex Allocation (e)
• Figure 32: Eni Upstream Capex Allocation (e)
• Figure 33: Shell Upstream Capex Allocation
• Figure 34: ExxonMobil Upstream Capex Allocation (e)
• Figure 35: TotalEnergies Upstream Capex Allocation
• Figure 36: Current Upstream Project Development Times
• Figure 37: Known Upcoming Projects
• Figure 38: Known FIDs by Project stage
• Figure 39: Project Cost Sanctioned
• Figure 40: Oil Assets Benchmark
• Figure 41: Gas Assets Benchmark
• Figure 42: GlobalData Upstream Risk Index
• Figure 43: Target Year for Net-zero GHG Emissions and Zero Flaring
• Figure 44: Emissions Intensity Targets
• Figure 45: Upstream Scope 1 & 2 GHG Emissions