2020年代电价的不确定性：气价波动与核电下行趋势

本报告针对近期市场背景的重大变化，提供了德国、法国、英国、意大利、伊比利亚、荷兰和比利时到 2030 年电价和供应前景的最新信息。

主要发现：

• 预计2022年市场平均电价约为200欧元/兆瓦时。
• 比之前的预测减少 30 欧元/兆瓦时。 2022/24 年，核电降级将成为推动波动的主要因素，在大多数市场上使价格上涨超过 10 欧元/兆瓦时。
• 法国核电产量下降将导致市场供应平衡显着恶化，但将被流向邻近市场的净流量减少和燃气发电的相对成本所抵消在互连市场上可用。运动将受到影响。
• 英国和伊比利亚市场相对较低的天然气价格支持了燃气发电，并显着增加了对法国的出口以填补供应缺口。

Report Summary:

In response to major, recent changes in the market background, this analysis updates our power price and supply outlook to 2030 for Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Iberia, Netherlands and Belgium. The analysis provides a framework for subsequent analysis as further market background changes emerge.

Key findings include:

• Market average power prices are forecast to be around 200 EUR/MWh in 2022

• a 30 EUR/MWh reduction on our previous view. In 2022/24, the nuclear downgrade becomes a key driver of change, adding over 10 EUR/MWh to the prices in most markets.

• Lower French nuclear output leads to a material weakening of the market's supply balance, offset by a reduction in net-flows to neighbouring markets, with movements driven by the relative cost of available gas-generation in those interconnected markets.

• Relatively lower gas prices in the GB and Iberian markets support gas-fired generation, with marked increases in exports to France to fill the supply gap.