天然气价格低迷拖累电价:北美的电力、再生能源的短期预测 (2023年4月)

报告概要

天然气价格居高不下和煤炭供应问题相结合，使2022年成为能源价格的丰收年。在CAISO之外，天然气价格在2023年回落，因此电价也有所下降。虽然到2024年煤炭供应问题仍然存在，但这些低天然气价格也削弱了这些问题的影响。因此，HenryHub预计到2027年将保持在4美元/mmbtu单位以下，同期能源价格应保持远低于2022年的水准。供应堆栈也应在未来五年内继续发展。随着国家向更清洁的能源过渡，预计将有超过60GW的煤炭产能退役，而超过60GW的太阳能和风能将投入使用。

本报告提供北美的电力、再生能源市场最新形势和短期性的趋势预测分析。

Report Summary:

The combination of high natural gas prices and coal supply issues made 2022 a banner year for energy prices. Outside of CAISO, natural gas prices have fallen back to earth in 2023, and as a result power prices have dropped as well. While coal supply issues remain in place through 2024, these low natural gas prices also undercut the impact of those issues. As a result, with henry hub expected to remain below $4/mmbtu through 2027, energy prices should remain well below 2022 levels over the same period. The supply stack should continue to evolve over the next five years as well. Over 60 GW of coal capacity is expected to retire, while over 60 GW of solar and wind capacity are slated to come online as the country transitions to cleaner sources of energy.