川普第二届政府第二部分：对能源和大宗商品的深入洞察

报告概述

2024 年美国大选中出现的三大共和党预计将使美国能源政策摆脱净零能源政策。随着通货膨胀控制法案（IRA）出台后低碳投资势头增强，选举的影响可能会因行业、商品和技术而异。这项见解深入探讨了川普第二届政府领导下的美国能源产业可能如何发展。涵盖 20 多种 Wood Mackenzie 技术、产业和商品。

目录

执行摘要

电力与再生能源

• 电力需求：负载成长保持稳定
• 美国太阳能：短期管道强劲，长期专案面临政策风险
• 离岸风电：2040年后引进的风险
• 陆域风电：IRA 可能发生的变化带来下行风险
• 能源储存：面临 IRA 政策变化的影响
• 企业趋势：投资人可能会重新评估美国风电。
• 国内天然气需求：放鬆管制将支持需求扩张至 2030 年

新兴科技

• 碳去除技术：随着其他 IRA 激励措施面临压力，45Q 仍然安全
• 低碳氢化合物：近期势头减弱，直至 45V 指导出现
• 核子小型模组化反应器（SMR）：政策和市场支持持续

商品

• 液化天然气 (LNG)：许可证改革是增加美国液化天然气新供应的良好开端
• 石油市场：经济成长放缓促使全球石油需求和价格下降
• L48上游：维持净零目标，但活动略有变化
• 美国炼油厂：贸易紧张局势使传统炼油厂受益，再生燃料失去动力
• 美国化学品：原料优势与潜在的关税保护提高竞争力。报復性贸易的风险增加。
• 煤炭：短期内需求会增加，但经济繁荣不会回到过去。
• 金属：美国关税政策推高金属价格的风险

贸易、碳、甲烷

• 贸易关税：世界应为保护主义抬头做好准备
• 碳：州级合规市场依然存在
• 甲烷法规：环保署 (EPA) 指令提出课题
• 环境、社会和治理 (ESG)：投资者将继续要求揭露

Report Summary:

The Republican trifecta that emerged in the 2024 US election cycle is set to pivot US energy policy away from net zero. Bit with significant momentum for low-carbon investment following the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the impact of the election will vary by sector, commodity and technology. This insight provides deeper dive into how the US energy industry could evolve under a second Trump administration. It covers over 20 technologies, sectors and commodities from across Wood Mackenzie.

Table of Contents

Executive summary

Power and renewables

• Power demand: load growth will remain resilient
• US solar: the near-term pipeline is robust and longer dated projects face policy risk
• Offshore wind: deployment risk arises from 2040
• Onshore wind: potential changes to the IRA present downside risk
• Energy storage: exposed to policy changes in the IRA
• Corporate trends: investors will reassess their US wind
• Domestic gas demand: deregulation supports demand growth through 2030

Emerging technologies

• Carbon removal technologies: the 45Q remains safe as other IRA incentives are pressured
• Low-carbon hydrogen: near term momentum slows until 45V guidance emerges
• Nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs): policy and market support to continue

Commodities

• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): permitting reform is a good first step to boosting new US LNG supplies
• Oil markets: slower economic growth drives oil global demand and prices lower
• L48 upstream: activity shifts on the margin while net zero goals remain
• US refining: trade tensions benefit traditional refiners while renewable fuels lose steam
• US chemicals: feedstock advantages and potential tariff protections boost competitiveness. Retaliatory trade risk rises.
• Coal: short-term demand uplift but no return to the halcyon days of the past
• Metals: US tariff policies risk pushing metals prices higher

Trade, carbon, and methane

• Trade tariffs: the world should brace itself for more protectionism
• Carbon: state-level compliance markets remain
• Methane regulations: the mandate from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will be challenged
• Environmental Social and Governance (ESG): investors will continue to push for disclosures

Tables and charts

This report includes 1 images and tables including:

• US net-energy related emissions, Bt CO2e