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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1754358
2025 年至 2033 年烟草市场规模、份额、趋势及按类型和地区分類的预测Tobacco Market Size, Share, Trends and Forecast by Type and Region, 2025-2033 |
2024年,全球烟草市场规模估计为876万吨。展望未来, IMARC Group估计,到2033年,市场规模将达到980万吨,2025-2033年期间的复合年增长率为1.2%。中国目前占据市场主导地位,2024年将占超过37.8%的市场。为吸引消费者而进行的说服性宣传活动不断增加、社会规范和文化接受度的不断提高,以及加热不燃烧烟草製品和电子烟等创新烟草产品的推出,是推动全国烟草市场份额增长的一些关键因素。
市场受多种关键因素驱动,包括政府政策、税收和塑造产业动态的法规。文化接受度和社会习惯发挥着重要作用,因为吸烟在许多社会中仍然根深蒂固。高吸烟率,尤其是在发展中国家,刺激了烟草市场的需求。某些地区的烟草价格仍然很低,这提高了烟草的可及性,但大型品牌透过广告进行的促销活动影响了人们使用烟草产品的方式。电子烟和替代尼古丁产品的兴起也促进了市场扩张。此外,新兴市场的经济成长和可支配收入的增加也支持了烟草消费。儘管健康意识不断增强和反吸烟运动不断开展,但调味烟草和无烟替代品等行业创新有助于维持需求。烟草销售产生的税收进一步激励政府监管而不是禁止烟草产品。
美国烟草市场受多种关键因素驱动,包括消费者需求、不断变化的法规和产品创新。例如,2024 年 10 月,英美烟草公司 (BAT) 宣布在美国推出一款含合成尼古丁的 Velo 尼古丁包。主要烟草企业(尤其是 BAT)生产的电子烟等替代吸烟产品通常含有从烟草植物中提取的天然尼古丁,而合成尼古丁则是在实验室中使用化学物质合成的。虽然由于健康意识的提高,吸烟率有所下降,但电子烟和无烟烟草等替代尼古丁产品的兴起支撑了市场的成长。包括税收和广告限制在内的政府政策塑造着产业动态,而强大的品牌忠诚度和行销策略则影响着消费者的选择。烟草产品的可负担性和可近性,尤其是在特定人群中,有助于维持持续的需求。此外,便利商店和线上销售管道的角色也支持着市场扩张。儘管监管压力和反吸烟运动日益增多,烟草行业仍透过低风险产品、薄荷醇变体和尼古丁替代品进行调整,保持了其在美国市场的地位。
社会和文化接受度的不断提高
根深蒂固的社会规范和传统导致烟草消费量不断增长,这正在影响市场成长。此外,吸烟通常被视为社会地位的象征或社交聚会时增进感情的方式,这在同侪和社区中是一种被接受的做法,尤其是在烟草使用历史悠久地区,从而促进了市场的成长。根据世界卫生组织 (WHO) 的数据,2020 年全球有近 13 亿人吸烟,其中 80% 以上居住在中低收入国家。此外,流行文化、电影和媒体中对吸烟的描绘有助于年轻观众接受吸烟,这是另一个主要的促进增长的因素。除此之外,名人代言和电影中对吸烟的描述营造出一种魅力和吸引力的感觉,鼓励易受影响的个体尝试吸烟,从而推动市场成长。此外,在某些文化中,烟草被用于宗教仪式、传统典礼或作为好客的象征,从而推动了市场成长。
几款创新烟草产品的推出
为满足不断变化的消费者偏好,市场正在经历多项产品创新和多样化。此外,电子烟和雾化设备的推出也影响市场的成长。这些设备为传统烟草产品提供了替代品。根据美国疾病管制与预防中心 (CDC) 的数据,2020 年薄荷醇香烟约占美国所有香烟销售量的 37%。此外,包括薄荷醇香烟和调味无烟烟草在内的调味烟草产品的加入是另一个主要的成长诱因。除此之外,为了吸引更广泛的消费者群体,各种无烟烟草产品(如鼻烟和可溶解烟草)的开发正在加速市场的成长。这些无烟替代品被宣传为方便且谨慎的烟草消费选择。同时,加热不燃烧烟草产品的出现,这种产品加热烟草而不是燃烧烟草,产生可吸入的气雾,作为吸烟的替代品,正在为烟草市场创造积极的前景。
不断增加的行销和广告活动
烟草公司投入大量资源设计和执行具说服力的行销活动,以吸引消费者并建立品牌忠诚度。根据美国联邦贸易委员会 (FTC) 的数据,光是 2021 年,美国的烟草广告支出就达到了 80.6 亿美元。这些行销活动采用各种策略来建立烟草产品的正面形象并影响消费者行为。此外,在电影、电视节目和音乐录影带中进行策略性的产品置入巧妙地将烟草使用融入流行文化,使其看起来更具吸引力和社会吸引力,从而影响市场成长。同样,名人代言也进一步强化了这一形象,将烟草使用与成功、吸引力和魅力联繫起来,从而促进了市场成长。此外,丰富多彩的包装、醒目的设计和创新的产品形式相结合,创造了强大的视觉吸引力,并使多个品牌脱颖而出,这是另一个主要的成长诱因。这些元素旨在使烟草产品对潜在消费者,尤其是年轻消费者更具吸引力。此外,新兴的数位行销和社群媒体平台正在吸引更广泛的受众,尤其是年轻人,其引人入胜的内容、竞赛和促销活动推动着市场成长。
The global tobacco market size was valued at 8.76 Million Tons in 2024. Looking forward, IMARC Group estimates the market to reach 9.8 Million Tons by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 1.2% during 2025-2033. China currently dominates the market, holding a significant market share of over 37.8% in 2024. The increasing execution of persuasive campaigns to attract consumers , growing social norms and cultural acceptance, and introduction of innovative tobacco products such as heat-not-burn tobacco products and e-cigarettes represent some of the key factors propelling the tobacco market share across the country.
The market is driven by several key factors, including government policies, taxation, and regulations that shape industry dynamics. Cultural acceptance and social habits play a significant role, as smoking remains ingrained in many societies. High smoking rates, particularly in developing countries, fuel tobacco market demand. Tobacco prices remain low in certain regions which enhances accessibility yet major brand promotions through advertising affect how people use tobacco products. The rise of e-cigarettes and alternative nicotine products also contributes to market expansion. Additionally, economic growth and increasing disposable income in emerging markets support tobacco consumption. Despite growing health awareness and anti-smoking campaigns, industry innovations, such as flavored tobacco and smokeless alternatives, help sustain demand. Tax revenues generated from tobacco sales further incentivize governments to regulate rather than ban tobacco products.
The tobacco market in the United States is driven by several key factors, including consumer demand, evolving regulations, and product innovation. For instance, in October 2024, British American Tobacco (BAT) announced the introduction of a version of its Velo nicotine pouches with synthetic nicotine in the United States. Smoking alternatives such as vapes from major tobacco businesses, notably BAT, typically contain naturally occurring nicotine extracted from the tobacco plant, whereas synthetic nicotine is created in a laboratory using chemicals. While smoking rates have declined due to health awareness, the rise of alternative nicotine products, such as e-cigarettes and smokeless tobacco, has sustained market growth. Government policies, including taxation and advertising restrictions, shape industry dynamics, while strong brand loyalty and marketing strategies influence consumer choices. The affordability and availability of tobacco products, particularly in certain demographics, contribute to continued demand. Additionally, the role of convenience stores and online sales channels supports market expansion. Despite increasing regulatory pressure and anti-smoking campaigns, the tobacco industry adapts through reduced-risk products, menthol variants, and nicotine alternatives, maintaining its presence in the U.S. market.
The Growing Social and Cultural Acceptance
The increasing tobacco consumption due to deeply ingrained social norms and traditions is influencing market growth. In addition, smoking is often perceived as a symbol of social status or a means of bonding during social gatherings which is an accepted practice among peers and communities, particularly in regions with a long history of tobacco use, thus augmenting the market growth. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), nearly 1.3 billion people globally smoked in 2020, with more than 80% of them residing in low- and middle-income countries. Moreover, the portrayal of smoking in popular culture, movies, and media contributes to its acceptance among young audiences representing another major growth-inducing factor. Along with this, celebrity endorsements and depictions of tobacco use in movies are creating a perception of glamour and attractiveness, encouraging experimentation among impressionable individuals, thus propelling market growth. Furthermore, in some cultures, tobacco is employed in religious rituals, traditional ceremonies, or as a symbol of hospitality, thus propelling market growth.
The Introduction of Several Innovative Tobacco Products
The market is witnessing several product innovations and diversifications to cater to changing consumer preferences. In addition, the introduction of electronic cigarettes or e-cigarettes and vaping devices is influencing the market growth. These devices offer an alternative to traditional tobacco products. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), menthol cigarettes accounted for about 37% of all cigarettes sold in the U.S. in 2020. Moreover, the incorporation of flavored tobacco products, including menthol cigarettes and flavored smokeless tobacco represents another major growth-inducing factor. Besides this, the development of numerous smokeless tobacco products, such as snus and dissolvable tobacco to appeal to a broader consumer base is accelerating the market growth. These smokeless alternatives are promoted as convenient and discreet options for tobacco consumption. Along with this, the emergence of heat-not-burn tobacco products that heat tobacco instead of burning it, producing an aerosol for inhalation as an alternative to smoking cigarettes is creating a positive tobacco market outlook.
The Increasing Marketing and Advertising Campaigns
Tobacco companies invest substantial resources in designing and executing persuasive campaigns to attract consumers and create brand loyalty. According to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), tobacco advertising expenditures in the U.S. reached USD 8.06 billion in 2021 alone. These campaigns employ various tactics to create a positive perception of tobacco products and influence consumer behavior. In addition, strategic product placement in movies, television shows, and music videos subtly integrates tobacco use into popular culture, making it appear appealing and socially desirable, thus influencing market growth. Also, celebrity endorsements by well-known figures further reinforce this image, associating tobacco use with success, attractiveness, and glamour, thus augmenting the market growth. Moreover, the integration of colorful packaging, eye-catching designs, and innovative product formats are utilized to create a strong visual appeal and distinguish several brands representing another major growth-inducing factor. These elements aim to make tobacco products more attractive to potential consumers, especially among younger age groups. Furthermore, the emerging digital marketing and social media platforms are reaching a broader audience, particularly the youth with engaging content, contests, and promotions propelling the market growth.
Cigarettes leads the market with around 51.2% of the market share in 2024. Cigarettes are the most widely consumed tobacco product globally, accounting for a significant share of the industry's revenue. In addition, the widespread adoption of cigarettes due to easy availability, convenience, and cost-effectiveness is influencing the market growth. Moreover, continuous product innovation and flavor diversification with the introduction of flavored cigarettes and novel packaging designs attract new consumers and reinforce brand loyalty among existing customers representing another major growth-inducing factor. Besides this, the extensive investment in marketing and advertising campaigns promoting cigarettes by targeting numerous consumers, including the youth, through strategic product placements and appealing branding are providing a positive thrust to the market growth, Furthermore, the increasing use of cigarettes in many cultures and societies, as an integral part of social norms and daily routines are contributing to the market growth. Along with this, cigarettes offer convenience and portability, making them a preferred choice for on-the-go consumption thus propelling the market growth.
In 2024, China accounted for the largest tobacco market share of over 37.8%. The increasing demand for tobacco products in China is influencing the market growth. In addition, rapid urbanization, the growing population, hectic work schedules, and the rising working population are contributing to market growth. Also, China has a long history of tobacco consumption, with smoking deeply ingrained in its social fabric and traditions propelling the market growth. The market is characterized by several products, including traditional cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco. China National Tobacco Corporation (CNTC), a state-owned enterprise, controls a substantial portion of the market, with an extensive distribution network and a diverse portfolio of tobacco brands. Moreover, China's economic growth and rising disposable income are escalating the demand for tobacco products. Besides this, the aggressive marketing campaigns and the presence of numerous regional and local tobacco companies are further contributing to the market growth.
China Tobacco Market Analysis
China is still the world's largest tobacco industry in terms of production and consumption levels. China produced approximately 37.9% of global unmanufactured tobacco production, as reported by the Lancet in 2022. Its tobacco industry has state control over production, as dominated by the China National Tobacco Corporation (CNTC). The government's taxation policies on tobacco have supported the consistent stream of revenue, even though attempts in recent years to reduce smoking using public health promotions and legislation have caused growth to slow. The efforts notwithstanding, China's extensive consumer base and deeply rooted habit of smoking mean a huge and stable market for tobacco.
India Tobacco Market Analysis
India's tobacco industry is large, fueled by local consumption as well as exports. India's exports of tobacco amounted to a value of USD 1,449.54 million in 2023-24, as reported by the Press Information Bureau (PIB), which is the highest ever for the nation. The tobacco industry accounted for a revenue of USD 13 billion in 2022. Although the incidence of smoking is slowly reducing owing to growing health awareness and government policies, India is still a top exporter of unmanufactured tobacco. Regulations like the prohibition of the advertisement of tobacco products and banning smoking at public places pose challenges to the market. The expansion of the smokeless tobacco segment is offsetting these challenges.
Brazil Tobacco Market Analysis
Brazil's tobacco market is the most extensive in South America, motivated by both home consumption and exporting activities. An estimated 21.1 million tobacco product users were in Brazil during 2022, comprising 13.1 million males and 8.0 million females aged 15 years and over. This ranks the nation at the 8th largest position in the whole world and at the 2nd position within the WHO Region of the Americas in terms of tobacco user counts. During the same year, Brazil exported around 667.3 thousand tons of unmanufactured tobacco, which comprised around 11.5% of the worldwide production of 5.8 million tons and made Brazil the 3rd largest tobacco-producing country in the world. Strict anti-smoking legislation by the government, including high taxes and advertising prohibitions, has driven down smoking volumes, yet the market continues to be strong with the demand for low-cost cigarettes keeping domestic demand alive.
United States Tobacco Market Analysis
In 2024, the United States accounted for over 87.60% of tobacco market in North America. The United States tobacco market is among the largest globally, but it has been declining over the past few years because of health issues and regulations. Based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in 2021, about 11.5% of American adults aged 18 years and above were current cigarette smokers. As per an industrial report, in 2021, the overall retail sales of tobacco products in the U.S. were approximately USD 120 billion. The market is moving towards alternatives like smokeless tobacco and e-cigarettes, with Altria and Philip Morris USA investing heavily in these products. The regulatory environment, such as the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) regulation of tobacco products, is crucial in determining the future of the market.
EU 15 Tobacco Market Analysis
The EU 15 tobacco market is experiencing a gradual but constant decrease in cigarette use. Cigarette sales decreased to 65.8 billion units in Germany in the year 2022, an 8.3% drop from the last year, as per an industrial report. This is one of the examples of a general trend throughout the region, as smoking levels continue to decline. As per a 2024 article by Euronews, close to a quarter (24%) of the population in the EU smokes, with merely a one-point decline in smokers since 2020. The gradual decline in usage is evidence of the efficacy of anti-smoking measures and increased health consciousness, though tobacco continues to be a major market, especially among nations with more intensive smoking rates.
At present, key players in the market are employing various strategies to strengthen their positions and retain their market dominance. They are continuously innovating and diversifying their product portfolios to cater to changing consumer preferences and introduce novel tobacco products including the development of smokeless tobacco products, e-cigarettes, and flavored tobacco options. Moreover, they are focusing on building and strengthening their distribution networks to ensure their products are widely available and accessible to consumers including collaborations with wholesalers, retailers, and online platforms. Besides this, companies are investing in research and development (R&D) of reduced-risk products, such as heated tobacco products and smokeless alternatives, positioning them as potentially less harmful options to traditional cigarettes. Furthermore, key players are focusing on engaging with consumers through loyalty programs, digital platforms, and social media to create a sense of community around their brands fostering brand loyalty and repeat purchases.