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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1832507
2025 年至 2032 年发电领域 CCS 市场(按技术类型、撷取方法、工厂类型、计划规模和部署模型划分)全球预测CCS in Power Generation Market by Technology Type, Capture Method, Plant Type, Project Scale, Deployment Model - Global Forecast 2025-2032 |
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预计到 2032 年,发电领域的 CCS 市场规模将成长至 374 亿美元,复合年增长率为 10.28%。
主要市场统计数据 | |
---|---|
基准年2024年 | 170.9亿美元 |
预计2025年 | 188.8亿美元 |
预测年份:2032年 | 374亿美元 |
复合年增长率(%) | 10.28% |
发电业正处于曲折点,脱碳需求、技术成熟度和法律规范交织在一起,影响着近期的投资和营运决策。碳捕集解决方案曾经是利基工程学科,如今正转型成为公用事业公司、独立电力生产商和工业电力消耗的策略能力。这种转变反映出人们越来越普遍地认识到,减少排放需要采取一种组合方法,将可再生能源、能源效率措施、燃料转换和碳捕集结合起来,以解决火力发电资产的残余排放。
在此背景下,相关人员必须应对复杂的情况,包括捕集技术、捕集方法、电厂类型和部署模式。为了降低进度和执行风险,人们越来越重视维修、与现有资产生命週期的兼容性以及模组化。同时,政策和企业对净零排放的承诺,也使人们越来越认识到碳捕集是其他脱碳措施的补充,尤其是在电气化不易实现或经济上不可行的情况下,它是基本负载发电的必要组成部分。
引言构成了后续执行执行摘要,并为分析奠定了基调。本文强调了技术准备程度、供应链限制、管理体制和资金筹措结构之间的相互作用,这些因素将决定碳捕集技术在发电领域的应用速度和形态。读者可以期待一个综合的观点,将各个技术领域与区域动态和商业性影响联繫起来,同时为市场参与企业指明可行的路径。
随着技术路径、政策工具和商业性供应模式的不断发展,发电领域的碳捕集格局正在改变。溶剂配方和製程整合的快速发展正在提高捕集效率并降低寄生负荷,而膜和吸附研究则为适用于小型发电厂的低成本模组化解决方案铺平了道路。同时,混合捕集系统和热电联产整合等系统级创新,为回收废弃能源和降低捕集成本(从整个电厂生命週期来看)创造了新的机会。
强化的奖励、排放绩效标准以及对低碳电力采购的偏好正在重塑计划可行性和投资标准。伴随这项政策势头,专案资金筹措结构也日趋成熟,优惠计划融资和风险分担机制越来越多地与商业债务和股权相结合,使规模更大、更复杂的计划能够从概念阶段走向建设阶段。
在工业领域,供应链的演变正在加速。零件製造商正在扩大薄膜、吸附剂和高可靠性压力容器等关键投入的生产能力,而工程承包商则正在采用模组化製造和平行施工技术来加快进度。这些技术、政策和供应侧的转变共同缩短了执行时间,降低了感知风险,并扩大了碳捕集在不同电厂配置中具有经济吸引力的用例。因此,计划开发商和资产所有者正在从实验性试点转向策略部署计划,将技术选择与营运、财务和监管约束相结合。
到2025年,美国关税变化的累积影响将对发电工程的碳捕集供应链造成多方面压力,并对筹资策略、供应商选择和区域采购决策产生连锁反应。进口钢材和某些工程零件的关税调整增加了承压设备和大型加工模组的到岸成本,促使买家重新评估其总体拥有成本,并在条件允许的情况下考虑国内製造方案。同时,影响特种材料和催化剂的关税也迫使供应商进行关键生产本地化或重新设计工艺流程,以减少对关税敏感型投入品的依赖。
因此,计划开发商正在延长采购週期,并优先考虑供应链的弹性。合约条款正在调整,以纳入更明确的条款,例如关税转嫁、不可抗力以及与贸易政策波动相关的对冲策略。这提升了计划开发组织内采购团队的策略重要性,因为他们需要权衡短期价格影响与国内供应商伙伴关係、在地采购要求以及国内生产相关潜在奖励带来的长期利益。
此外,关税环境正在加速关于模组化、小规模捕获解决方案的讨论,以减少对进口大宗设备的依赖。企业正在探索优先考虑标准化、工厂製造的模组的设计方法,这些模组可以在区域内运输,从而最大限度地降低跨境关税。政策回应和产业对策也正在涌现,包括聚合需求并协商优惠条款的供应商联盟,以及将製造地迁至更靠近需求中心的合资企业。总而言之,这些调整反映了与关税相关的供应链结构性变化如何改变风险分配、资本配置和技术选择的计算方式。
细緻的细分视角对于理解不同的技术路径和计划特征如何影响发电领域中碳捕获的适用性、成本驱动因素和实施时间表至关重要。根据技术类型,捕获方法分为燃烧后和燃烧前配置,每种配置都有不同的改造含义、整合复杂性和操作概况。根据捕获方法,选项包括化学吸收、低温分离、膜分离和物理吸附。化学吸收进一步分为碱性和胺基溶剂;低温分离包括液化和製冷循环方法;膜分离分为无机和聚合物膜化学;物理吸附包括活性碳和沸石介质。根据工厂类型,该领域包括生物质、整体煤气化联合循环、天然气联合循环、粉煤和垃圾焚化发电设施。 IGCC 工厂进一步透过气流床和流体化床气化技术进行区分,每种技术都会影响捕获系统和二氧化碳纯度曲线之间的协同作用。根据计划规模,服务分为大型和小型部署,规模驱动围绕模组化、资本密集度和资金筹措结构的选择。最后,根据部署模型,计划评估为棕地维修与待开发区整合,影响授权时间表、电气整合和生命週期最佳化策略。
全面了解这些细分领域,有助于发现重要的交叉模式。例如,胺基后燃系统已成为粉煤电厂可靠的维修途径,并注重溶剂管理和降低能耗;而无机膜技术则有望成为适用于小型天然气复合迴圈电厂的低成本紧凑型装置。与流体化床配置相比,配备气流床气化器的IGCC设施通常具有更高的二氧化碳分压,更容易捕获二氧化碳。同时,绿地计画允许采用捕获设计原则,以减少整合摩擦并优化蒸气和热量整合。棕地计划通常优先考虑分阶段实施,最大限度地减少工厂停机时间,以保持运作连续性。
透过这种细分获得的见解使相关人员能够将技术选择与工厂特性、资金筹措目标和监管要求相结合,从而整体发电领域碳捕获机会的策略契合度和执行信心。
区域动态对全球发电领域碳捕获的部署经济性、政策奖励和供应链选择有着至关重要的影响。在美洲,联邦奖励、州级政策计划以及大量私部门投资的结合,为示范计画和早期商业计划创造了良好的环境。该地区的政策框架也影响资金筹措结构和本地化决策,并倾向于优先考虑二氧化碳运输和储存的基础设施安排。
在欧洲、中东和非洲,各国的脱碳目标、监管目标和碳定价机制正在塑造差异化的市场。一些国家正在迅速增加对碳捕获和储存的奖励,而另一些国家则优先考虑替代性的低碳途径。该地区先进的工程基础设施以及某些司法管辖区靠近地质储存潜力的地理位置,创造了有利于整合价值链的环境。然而,复杂的许可授权和跨境运输挑战需要谨慎的计划规划。在中东,强化的财政奖励和丰富的二氧化碳储存潜力相结合,正在推动具有产业协同效应的大型计划。
亚太地区各国的能源结构、产业政策和可再生能源部署速度各不相同,因此采取了各种不同的方法。拥有大型燃煤电厂的国家正在探索维修途径,将其视为更广泛的能源转型的一部分,而天然气产能快速成长的国家则在评估捕集方案,以减少生命週期排放。该地区也正在加快本地供应商和工程公司的能力建设,从而为本地采购的设备节省潜在的成本和前置作业时间。在整个地区,政策制定者、公用事业公司和储能开发商之间的协调对于实现可扩展部署和长期可行性仍然至关重要。
电力碳捕集领域的关键公司层面动态反映了现有技术参与者、新兴专业供应商以及弥合数位技术与製造能力之间差距的新参与企业的混合。现有的工程和建设公司拥有大型捕集工厂的系统整合经验和计划执行能力,而专业技术供应商则专注于核心捕集方法,例如先进溶剂、专有膜、低温系统和高性能吸附剂。新参与企业通常专注于模组化工厂製造装置或吸附剂化学或膜製造领域的利基改进,以降低资本支出并缩短试运行时间。
随着计划开发商寻求透过结合互补优势(例如技术智慧财产权、EPC能力和计划资金筹措)来降低执行风险并加快营运速度,策略伙伴关係和财团变得越来越普遍。许可和承购协议正在不断发展,以反映长期营运支援和履约保证,这对于吸引建筑金融机构和机构投资者至关重要。此外,企业正在透过超越设备供应的服务模式实现差异化,包括生命週期优化、透过数位双胞胎进行预测性维护,以及将捕获与运输和储存解决方案连接的综合碳管理服务。
竞争态势也将受到供应链决策和製造布局的影响。那些将高价值零件生产策略性地定位在靠近需求中心的公司,将在应对力和降低电价方面获得优势。这种材料科学、製造、专案提供和数位服务能力的整合,将成为那些在电力产业碳捕集生态系统中占据持久地位的公司的一个决定性特征。
寻求加速碳捕集技术在发电领域应用的产业领导者应优先考虑一系列切实可行的倡议,以平衡短期成果和长期策略定位。首先,应根据电厂独特的营运状况和维修限制,优先选择能够最大限度减少停机时间并与现有蒸气和热系统整合的解决方案,以减少能源损失。其次,应寻求策略供应商伙伴关係和共同投资模式,以确保优先获得关键零件,并实现关键製造的在地化,从而降低贸易政策风险并缩短前置作业时间。
第三,透过精心建构的担保和奖励机制,制定严格的合约策略,应对电价波动、供应链连续性和绩效风险。第四,在适当情况下投资模组化和标准化,压缩时间表,并在类似配置的工厂中释放可重复的部署模式。第五,积极与政策制定者和区域基础设施规划人员合作,加速授权、二氧化碳运输走廊建设和封存地点特性描述。最后,发展将公共风险缓解工具与私人资本结合的资金筹措结构,同时阐明清晰的绩效指标和收益路径,以吸引保守的贷款机构。透过实施这一系列行动,产业领导者可以将策略意图转化为可行的计划,协调技术、资金和政策,实现可扩展的排放目标。
本调查方法基于多层面的方法,旨在整合与发电领域中碳捕集相关的技术、商业性和政策观点。该方法结合了同行评审技术研究、公共文件和行业白皮书的系统性文献综述,以及与技术开发者、计划发起人、EPC承包商和融资方进行的结构化访谈,以获得关于整合挑战和采购行为的实用见解。此外,透过对电厂原型和捕集方法的比较分析,评估了技术准备和部署特征,以确定最适合的解决方案。
透过绘製零件流向、製造足迹和贸易政策变化图,评估了供应炼和关税影响,以了解敏感点和采购影响。近期计划的案例研究分析提供了经验教训,并推荐了有关执行顺序、合约结构和营运外包的最佳实践。为确保严谨性,研究结果透过多个资料来源进行三角测量,并透过与具有直接实施撷取计划经验的从业人员的专家评审会议检验。本调查方法强调资讯来源的透明度和交叉检验的稳健性,旨在为相关人员提供可靠且可操作的策略规划见解。
发电用碳捕获有望在更广泛的脱碳策略中发挥催化作用,但要充分发挥其潜力,需要切实协调技术选择、政策奖励和商业性供应机制。细分领域的选择——技术类型、捕获方法、电厂类型、计划规模和部署模式——与区域动态相互作用,以确定捕获解决方案在何处以及如何实现最大价值。对供应链压力(包括关税影响)的战术性应对措施将在短期内影响采购和製造决策,而对模组化、标准化和本地製造的投资则可以降低长期执行风险。
从技术开发商到储能业者再到金融机构,贯穿价值链的相关人员通力合作,最有能力将试点成功转化为可扩展的计划。严谨的合约签订、策略伙伴关係以及积极的政策参与相结合,可以帮助市场参与企业加快部署,同时管理资本和营运风险。最终,实现发电领域有效排放的途径取决于如何利用互补优势——技术创新、供应链韧性和有针对性的公众支持——将碳捕获纳入均衡的脱碳组合。
The CCS in Power Generation Market is projected to grow by USD 37.40 billion at a CAGR of 10.28% by 2032.
KEY MARKET STATISTICS | |
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Base Year [2024] | USD 17.09 billion |
Estimated Year [2025] | USD 18.88 billion |
Forecast Year [2032] | USD 37.40 billion |
CAGR (%) | 10.28% |
The power generation sector is at an inflection point where decarbonization imperatives, technology maturity, and regulatory frameworks intersect to shape near-term investment and operational decisions. Carbon capture solutions, once a niche engineering discipline, are transitioning into a strategic capability for utilities, independent power producers, and industrial power consumers. This transition reflects a broader recognition that emissions reductions will require a portfolio approach combining renewables, efficiency measures, fuel switching, and carbon capture to address residual emissions from thermal generation assets.
Against this backdrop, stakeholders must navigate a complex landscape of capture technologies, capture methods, plant types, and deployment models. There is an increasing focus on retrofitability, compatibility with existing asset lifecycles, and modularization to reduce schedule and execution risk. Meanwhile, policy and corporate net-zero commitments are raising the profile of carbon capture as a necessary complement to other decarbonization levers, particularly for baseload generation that cannot be easily or economically electrified.
This introduction frames the executive summary that follows and sets expectations for the analysis. It emphasizes the interplay between technology readiness, supply-chain constraints, regulatory regimes, and financing structures that collectively determine the pace and shape of carbon capture adoption in power generation. Readers should expect an integrated perspective that links technical segmentation to regional dynamics and commercial implications, while highlighting actionable pathways for market participants.
The landscape for carbon capture in power generation is undergoing transformative shifts driven by evolving technology pathways, policy instruments, and commercial delivery models. Rapid advances in solvent formulations and process integration are improving capture efficiency and reducing parasitic loads, while membrane and adsorption research is unlocking routes to lower-capex, modular solutions suitable for smaller-scale plants. Simultaneously, system-level innovations such as hybrid capture trains and combined heat and power integration are enabling new opportunities to reclaim waste energy and lower cost of capture when evaluated across the plant lifecycle.
Policy changes are exerting strong directional influence: enhanced incentives, emissions performance standards, and procurement preferences for low-carbon power are reshaping project viability and investment criteria. This policy momentum is matched by a maturation of project financing structures that increasingly pair concessional public finance and risk-sharing mechanisms with commercial debt and equity, allowing larger and more complex projects to move from concept to construction.
On the industrial front, supply-chain evolution is accelerating. Component manufacturers are scaling capacity for key inputs such as membranes, sorbents, and high-integrity pressure vessels, while engineering contractors are adopting modular fabrication and parallel construction techniques to compress schedules. Together, these technology, policy, and supply-side shifts are reducing execution timelines, lowering perceived risk, and broadening the set of economically attractive use cases for carbon capture across diverse power plant configurations. As a result, project developers and asset owners are moving from exploratory pilots to strategic deployment planning that aligns technology choice with operational, financial, and regulatory constraints.
The cumulative effects of United States tariff developments in 2025 have exerted multi-dimensional pressure on the carbon capture supply chain for power generation projects, with ripple effects for procurement strategies, vendor selection, and regional sourcing decisions. Tariff adjustments on imported steel and certain engineered components have increased landed costs for pressure-containing equipment and large fabricated modules, prompting buyers to reassess total cost of ownership and to consider domestic manufacturing options where available. In parallel, tariffs affecting specialty materials and catalysts have pressured suppliers to localize critical production or to reengineer processes to reduce exposure to tariff-sensitive inputs.
As a consequence, project developers are extending sourcing horizons and placing greater emphasis on supply-chain resilience. Contractual terms have adapted to include more explicit clauses for tariff pass-through, force majeure, and hedging strategies tied to trade policy volatility. This has increased the strategic importance of procurement teams within project development organizations, as they weigh the trade-offs between near-term price impacts and long-term benefits associated with domestic supplier partnerships, local content requirements, and potential incentives tied to in-country fabrication.
Moreover, the tariff environment has accelerated conversations around modularized, small-scale capture solutions that reduce dependence on imported oversized equipment. Companies are exploring design approaches that prioritize standardized, factory-built modules that can be transported regionally, thereby minimizing cross-border tariff exposure. Policy responses and industry countermeasures are also emerging, including supplier consortia that aggregate demand to negotiate favorable terms and joint ventures that relocate manufacturing footprints closer to demand centers. Taken together, these adaptations reflect a shifting calculus for risk allocation, capital deployment, and technology selection driven by tariff-related structural changes in the supply chain.
A granular segmentation lens is essential to understand how diverse technological pathways and project characteristics influence suitability, cost drivers, and deployment timelines for carbon capture in power generation. Based on technology type, capture approaches are distinguished between post combustion and pre combustion configurations, each presenting distinct retrofitting implications, integration complexity, and operational profiles. Based on capture method, options include chemical absorption, cryogenic separation, membrane separation, and physical adsorption; chemical absorption further branches into alkaline and amine-based solvents, cryogenic separation includes liquefaction and refrigeration-cycle approaches, membrane separation differentiates between inorganic and polymeric membrane chemistries, and physical adsorption spans activated carbon and zeolite media. Based on plant type, the sector encompasses biomass, integrated gasification combined cycle, natural gas combined cycle, pulverized coal, and waste-to-energy facilities, with IGCC plants further distinguished by entrained flow and fluidized bed gasification technologies, each affecting synergies with capture systems and CO2 purity profiles. Based on project scale, offerings diverge into large-scale and small-scale deployments, with scale driving choices around modularity, capital intensity, and financing structures. Finally, based on deployment model, projects are evaluated across brownfield retrofits and greenfield integrations, influencing permitting timelines, electrical integration, and lifecycle optimization strategies.
Understanding these segments in concert reveals important cross-cutting patterns. For example, amine-based post-combustion systems have established themselves as a reliable retrofit pathway for pulverized coal plants, albeit with attention to solvent management and energy penalty mitigation, while inorganic membranes show promise for lower-capex, compact units suitable for smaller natural gas combined cycle plants. IGCC facilities with entrained flow gasifiers often provide higher CO2 partial pressures that simplify capture compared with some fluidized bed configurations. Meanwhile, greenfield projects allow for design-for-capture principles that reduce integration friction and enable optimized steam and heat integration, whereas brownfield projects frequently prioritize minimized plant downtime and phased implementation to manage operational continuity.
These segmentation-driven insights enable stakeholders to align technology selection with plant characteristics, financing appetite, and regulatory obligations, thereby improving strategic fit and execution confidence across the spectrum of carbon capture opportunities in power generation.
Regional dynamics materially shape the deployment economics, policy incentives, and supply-chain options for carbon capture in power generation across the globe. In the Americas, a combination of federal incentives, state-level policy initiatives, and significant private-sector investment has generated a fertile environment for demonstration and early commercial projects, with pronounced interest in retrofits for existing natural gas and coal-fired assets as well as in capacity built around large industrial clusters. Policy frameworks in this region also influence financing structures and local content decisions, and they tend to prioritize infrastructure coordination for CO2 transport and storage.
In Europe, Middle East & Africa, regulatory ambition and carbon pricing mechanisms, alongside national decarbonization targets, are creating differentiated markets where some countries move rapidly to incentivize capture and storage while others prioritize alternative low-carbon pathways. The region's advanced engineering base and proximity to geological storage prospects in certain jurisdictions create an environment conducive to integrated value chains; however, permitting complexities and cross-border transport issues require careful project planning. In the Middle East, the intersection of enhanced fiscal incentives and abundant CO2 storage potential is advancing large-scale projects with industrial synergies.
Asia-Pacific presents a mosaic of approaches driven by national energy mixes, industrial policy, and the pace of renewable uptake. Countries with significant coal-fired fleets are investigating retrofit pathways as part of broader energy transitions, whereas jurisdictions with fast-growing natural gas capacity are evaluating capture options to mitigate lifecycle emissions. The region is also witnessing accelerated capacity building among local suppliers and engineering firms, which contributes to potential cost reductions and shorter lead times for regionally sourced equipment. Across all regions, coordination between policymakers, utilities, and storage developers remains a central enabler for scalable deployment and long-term viability.
Key company-level dynamics in the carbon capture for power generation space reflect a mix of technology incumbents, emerging specialist suppliers, and new entrants bridging digital and manufacturing capabilities. Established engineering and construction firms bring systems integration experience and project execution capacity for large-scale capture plants, while specialist technology providers focus on core capture methods such as advanced solvents, proprietary membranes, cryogenic systems, and high-performance adsorbents. Newer entrants often concentrate on modular, factory-built units or on niche improvements in sorbent chemistry and membrane fabrication that reduce capex and shorten commissioning timelines.
Strategic partnerships and consortiums are increasingly common, as project developers seek to combine complementary strengths-technology IP, EPC capacity, and project financing-to reduce execution risk and accelerate time to operation. Licensing and off-take agreements are evolving to reflect long-term operational support and performance guarantees, which are critical to attracting construction lenders and institutional investors. Additionally, companies are differentiating through service models that extend beyond equipment supply to include lifecycle optimization, predictive maintenance enabled by digital twins, and integrated carbon management services that connect capture to transport and storage solutions.
Competitive dynamics are also shaped by supply-chain decisions and manufacturing footprints. Firms that strategically locate production of high-value components closer to demand centers are gaining advantages in responsiveness and tariff exposure mitigation. This consolidation of capabilities-spanning material science, fabrication, project delivery, and digital services-will be a defining feature for companies that secure durable roles in the power-sector carbon capture ecosystem.
Industry leaders seeking to accelerate carbon capture deployment in power generation should prioritize a set of actionable moves that balance near-term deliverables with long-term strategic positioning. First, align technology selection with plant-specific operational profiles and retrofit constraints, favoring solutions that minimize downtime and integrate with existing steam and heat systems to reduce energy penalties. Second, pursue strategic supplier partnerships and co-investment models that secure preferential access to key components and enable localization of critical manufacturing to mitigate trade-policy risks and shorten lead times.
Third, embed rigorous contracting strategies that address tariff volatility, supply-chain continuity, and performance risk through carefully structured guarantees and incentives. Fourth, invest in modularization and standardization where appropriate to compress schedules and unlock repeatable deployment models across similarly configured plants. Fifth, proactively engage with policymakers and regional infrastructure planners to accelerate permitting, CO2 transport corridor development, and storage site characterization, because coordinated policy and infrastructure commitments materially reduce project execution risk. Finally, develop financing structures that combine public de-risking instruments and private capital, while articulating clear performance metrics and revenue pathways to attract conservative lenders. Implementing this set of actions will help industry leaders convert strategic intent into deliverable projects that align technology, financing, and policy to achieve scalable emissions reductions.
This research is grounded in a multi-pronged methodology designed to integrate technical, commercial, and policy perspectives relevant to carbon capture in power generation. The approach combined systematic literature synthesis of peer-reviewed technical studies, public policy documents, and industry white papers with structured interviews conducted across technology developers, project sponsors, EPC contractors, and financiers to capture practical insights into integration challenges and procurement behavior. Additionally, technology readiness and deployment characteristics were assessed through comparative analysis of plant archetypes and capture methods to identify where solutions deliver the greatest fit.
Supply-chain and tariff impacts were evaluated by mapping component flows, manufacturing footprints, and trade policy changes to understand sensitivity points and procurement implications. Case study analysis of recent projects provided lessons on execution sequencing, contractual structures, and operational commissioning that informed recommended best practices. To ensure rigor, findings were triangulated across multiple data sources and validated through expert review sessions with practitioners who have direct implementation experience in capture projects. The methodology emphasizes transparency in sources and robustness in cross-validation to provide stakeholders with reliable, actionable insights for strategic planning.
Carbon capture for power generation is poised to play a catalytic role in broader decarbonization strategies, but realizing that potential requires pragmatic alignment of technology selection, policy incentives, and commercial delivery mechanisms. The interplay between segmentation choices-technology type, capture method, plant type, project scale, and deployment model-and regional dynamics will determine where and how capture solutions deliver the most value. Tactical responses to supply-chain pressures, including tariff impacts, will shape procurement and manufacturing decisions in the near term, while investment in modularization, standardization, and local manufacturing can reduce long-term execution risk.
Stakeholders that coordinate across the value chain, from technology developers to storage operators and financiers, will be best positioned to translate pilot successes into scalable projects. By coupling disciplined contracting, strategic partnerships, and proactive policy engagement, market participants can accelerate deployment while managing capital and operational risk. Ultimately, the path to meaningful emissions reductions from power generation will hinge on integrating carbon capture into a balanced decarbonization portfolio, leveraging the complementary strengths of technology innovation, supply-chain resilience, and targeted public support.