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化肥市场:2024年至2029年预测Fertilizer Market - Forecasts from 2024 to 2029 |
预计2022年化肥市场规模将达2,172.42亿美元,复合年增长率为3.80%,2029年市场规模将达2,820.95亿美元。
有限的耕地和不断增长的提供肥料的人口有助于农民利用现有土地最大限度地提高生产力。特别是随着都市化的不断提高,对适当农业投入以提高产量的需求不断增加。在各种肥料类型中,2022年交易量最大的是矿物氮肥和化学氮肥,占43%,混合肥料占29%,钾盐矿物和化肥占24%。
此外,化肥使用补贴和激励等政府政策也会对市场需求产生重大影响。在印度,预计2025财年含磷酸二铵(dap)和npk(氮、磷、钾)的复合肥国内销售成长率预计在4-5%之间。这一增长得益于正常季风前景和稳定的零售价格。
食品需求的增加预计将推动市场成长。
到 2022 年 11 月中旬,世界人口达到 80 亿。根据预测,未来30年世界人口可能增加近20亿,到2050年将达到97亿,并在2080年代中期达到高峰近104亿。中国和印度仍是人口最多的两个国家,人口均超过10亿,几乎占世界人口的18%。
2023年,由于长期粮食危机和新的衝击,严重的粮食不安全水准达到历史最高水准。 48 个国家约 2.38 亿人面临严重的粮食不安全,比 2022 年增加 10%。肥料在提高农业产量和确保充足的粮食生产以满足不断增长的人口的需求方面发挥着至关重要的作用。解决粮食安全问题的需求预计将在可预见的未来推动化肥市场的持续成长。
预计北美地区市场将成长。
美国化肥产业受到多种因素的影响,包括作物需求和生产要求,并可能受到现有法规和地方政府补贴的约束。此外,生产商的化肥采购决策受到某些作物(尤其是玉米和大豆)相关全球价格波动的影响。促进成长的精密农业技术的发展也推动了国内化肥需求。
根据美国农业部的数据,美国每千英亩作物面积从 2020 年的 291,429,000 英亩增加到 2021 年的 298,863,000 英亩,其中包括水稻、大豆、花生、向日葵和棉花,包括干食用豆类的收穫面积、鹰嘴豆、菜籽、油菜、小米、甘蔗、干草、烟草和甘蔗,以及双季和未收穫的小谷物。
此外,根据美国2021 年的报告,大约 3,000 个水果和蔬菜种植企业使用 CEA 类型的保护措施。以作物总价值计算,这 2-3% 是美国的重要部门。 CEA 种植的作物以高价值草本植物、叶菜类、微型菜苗、浆果、攀缘蔬菜(黄瓜、番茄、辣椒等)、花卉、蘑菇和幼苗为特色。据估计,美国有超过2000个垂直农场大规模使用化学肥料。
美国化肥产业受到各种产品推出和政府措施的巨大影响。新产品创新,例如突破性配方和增强的营养输送系统,有可能透过提高农民的生产力和绩效来刺激市场开拓。
2023 年 6 月,全球特种矿物领导者 ICL 宣布在北美推出 Nova 品牌水溶性肥料的一系列创新叶面喷布施肥解决方案。我们的主要产品有 Nova Finish (TM)、Nova Pulse (TM)、Nova Elevate (TM) 和 Nova Flow (TM)。此外,2023 年 12 月,全球农业、能源和化学解决方案提供商 Koch Ag &Energy Solutions (KAES) 宣布签署协议,以 36 亿美元收购 OCI Global 位于爱荷华州韦伯的化肥工厂。
此外,政府资助的研发项目经常刺激化肥产业的创新,从而开发新产品和新方法。 2023 年 3 月,美国农业部 (USDA) 部长汤姆·维尔萨克 (Tom Vilsack) 宣布,在新的津贴计划的前两轮中,来自47 个州和两个地区的350 笔赠款,旨在提高国内创新肥料的生产能力,超过1,000 家独立公司宣布了这项计画。
The fertilizer market was estimated to be at US$217.242 billion in 2022, growing at a CAGR of 3.80%, reaching a market size of US$282.095 billion by 2029.
The limited arable land and growing population to feed fertilizers help farmers maximize productivity on existing land. With the particular increase in urbanization, there is a growing need for the appropriate agricultural inputs for agriculture to increase production. Among various fertilizer types, mineral, and chemical nitrogenous fertilizers are the most traded in 2022, with 43%, Fertilizers mixtures to be at 29%, and Potassiac mineral and chemical fertilizers at 24%.
Moreover, Government policies like subsidies and incentives for fertilizer use can significantly impact market demand. Such as, In India, the anticipated growth rate for domestic sales volume of complex fertilizers, including diammonium phosphate (dap) and npk (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium), in the fiscal year 2025 is expected to range between 4-5%. this growth is supported by the outlook for a normal monsoon and stable retail prices. lower volatility in raw material costs will enable the government to provide a corresponding nutrient-based subsidy (NBS), aiming to enhance the operating profitability of manufacturers to a normalized level.
Growing demand for food is anticipated to propel market growth.
The global human population reached 8.0 billion in mid-November 2022. Projections indicate that the world's population will increase by nearly 2 billion individuals over the next 30 years, reaching 9.7 billion by 2050 and potentially peaking at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s. China and India remain the two most populous countries, each with over 1 billion people, representing nearly 18 per cent of the world's population, respectively.
In 2023, acute food insecurity levels reached record highs due to prolonged food crises and new shocks. Approximately 238 million people across 48 countries are facing severe food insecurity, which is 10% higher than in 2022. Fertilizers play a crucial role in enhancing agricultural yields and ensuring sufficient food production to meet the needs of a growing population. The necessity to address food security concerns is expected to drive the continued growth of the fertilizer market in the foreseeable future.
The market is projected to grow in the North American region.
The fertilizer industry in the United States is affected by various factors, such as crop demand and output requirements, that might depend on the current rules and subsidies of the local government. In addition, the fertilizer purchasing decisions of producers are affected by the fluctuations in the global prices that accompany specific crops, in particular maize and soybeans. The growth-enabling precision agricultural technological developments are also fueling the demand for fertilizers in the nation.
According to USDA, crop area harvested per 1,000 acres in the United States increased from 2,91,429 thousand acres in 2020 to 2,98,863 thousand acres in 2021, The list included crops like corn, sorghum, oats, barley, rye, winter wheat, Durum wheat, rice, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edible beans, chickpeas, potatoes, canola, proso millet, and sugarbeets, with harvested acreage for hay, tobacco, and sugarcane, including double cropped acres and unharvested small grains.
Furthermore, the 2021 USDA report shows that among the fruit and vegetable agricultural businesses, there are around 3,000 that use CEA-type protection. This 2-3% is a significant sector in the US in terms of total crop value. CEA-grown crops are characterized by high-value herbs, leafy greens, microgreens, berries, vine vegetables (like cucumbers, tomatoes, and peppers), flowers, mushrooms, and nursery crops. As per the estimates, more than 2,000 vertical farming operations are present in the US which utilizes fertilizers on a large scale.
Various product introductions and government initiatives have a big influence on the fertilizer industry in the United States. New product innovations, such as revolutionary formulations or increased nutrient delivery systems, have the potential to stimulate market development by improving farmer productivity and performance.
In June 2023, ICL, a global leader in specialized minerals, announced the North American introduction of a new line of innovative foliar and fertigation solutions under the Nova brand of water-soluble fertilizers. The flagship products are Nova FINISH(TM), Nova PULSE(TM), Nova ELEVATE(TM), and Nova FLOW(TM). Furthermore, in December 2023, Koch Ag & Energy Solutions (KAES), a global provider of agricultural, energy, and chemical solutions, announced that it had s reached an agreement to buy OCI Global's fertilizer facility in Wever, Iowa, for $3.6 billion.
Besides that, government-funded research and development programs frequently stimulate innovation in the fertilizer industry, resulting in the development of new products and methods. Owing to this, in March 2023, Secretary Tom Vilsack of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that more than 350 independent businesses from 47 states and two territories applied for $3 billion in the first two rounds of a new grant program to increase innovative domestic fertilizer production capacity.