小口径军用弹药:市场及技术的预测 (～2033年)

小口径军用弹药市场正进入一个多年上升週期。乌克兰战争和北约重新调整战备目标导致弹药消耗量增加，使得市场需求从和平时期的 "维持" 水准转向持续的、有计划的采购项目。目前，欧洲引领着这一成长，而美国仍是一个稳定且强劲的需求市场。这为合格的供应商和投资者创造了稳健的业务管道。

然而，供应仍是最大的限制因素。底火、推进剂（例如硝化纤维素）、黄铜和熟练劳动力等因素的瓶颈限制了产能。此外，新的生产设施，例如弹壳拉拔、底火製造、弹头组装和装填线（LAP），通常需要一到三年的时间才能达到稳定、合格的生产水准。对于能够迅速行动的公司而言，这种供需失衡为提价、提高订单积压可见性以及建立长期客户关係创造了极具吸引力的机会。

可扩展的韧性是成功策略的核心，包括签订多年框架合约和可预测的培训负荷，以确保生产线持续运转；灵活的工具能够高效地在 5.56mm/7.62mm/9.50mm 和 6.8x51mm 弹药系列之间切换；垂直整合或签订底火、药物和弹壳的长期采购生产率； (OEE)；以及符合北约/STANAG 标准并具备互通性，这些都是出口能力和认证速度的关键差异化因素。

随着各国追求弹药自给自足，市场结构预计将继续保持分散状态，这为合作、合资和併购等战略举措创造了空间。 同时，贸易摩擦和关税政策推高了原材料成本，并使跨境采购变得更加复杂，这使得那些实现生产基地多元化、区域化和分散化、实施双重认证体係以及签订长期能源和推进剂合约的公司更具优势。这向企业领导者传递了一个明确的讯息：我们正处于强劲的上升趋势中，而供应能力有限。因此，那些及早行动并建立具有韧性、合规性和成本竞争力的体系的公司，很可能占市场领导地位。

本报告分析了小口径军用弹药的采购路径，并评估了乌克兰战争如何重塑市场结构。本研究提供了市场规模模型和对采购机会的详细见解，系统地描绘了每个全球区域的机会范围、规模和时间线。此外，本研究也清楚阐述了当前小口径军用弹药市场的商业环境，并更好地预测了其未来的发展趋势。

刊载企业

目录

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 简介

第3章 技术与开发

• 技术概述
• 小口径弹药类型
• 无铅弹药（绿弹药）
• 美军新口径：6.8毫米
• 步枪口径模组化
• 轻型聚合物和金属弹药
• 库存管理支援技术
• 反无人机弹药（反无人机弹）
• 俄罗斯和中国的科技趋势

第4章 重要的原料

第5章 市场概要

• 预测期间的小口径军用弹药市场数量分布:各地区
• 竞争情形
• 欧洲
  • 欧洲联盟
  • EU的对策:SAFE，ASAP，EDIRPA
  • 波罗的海地区
  • 北欧地区
  • 法国
  • 波兰
• 北美
  • 美国
  • 加拿大
• 中国和俄罗斯市场概要

第6章 市场动态与预测要素

• 市场区隔
• 促进因素
• 趋势
• 机会
• 课题
• 预测要素与註记

第7章 各国分析

• 概要
• 北美
  • 美国

第8章 小口径军用弹药市场:各地区

• 小口径军用弹药市场概要:各地区
• 小口径军用弹药市场概要:地区·caliber
  • 北美市场概要
  • 欧洲市场概要
  • 亚太地区市场概要
  • 中东·非洲市场概要
  • 南美市场概要

第9章 小口径军用弹药市场:caliber

• 小口径军用弹药市场概要:caliber
• 小口径军用弹药市场概要:caliber·各地区
  • 5.45 mm
  • 5.56 mm
  • 5.7 mm
  • 6.5 mm
  • 6.8 mm
  • 7.62 mm
  • 8.6 mm
  • 9 mm
  • 11.43 mm
  • 12.7 mm
  • 12量规

第10章 机会分析

• 复利成长率
  • 各地区

第11章 企业

• BAE Systems Plc
• Beretta Holding
• Czechoslovak Group
• EDGE Group PJSC
• FN Herstal
• GGG - Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla
• MKE (Makine ve Kimya Endustrisi) Inc.
• Nammo AS
• Olin Winchester
• PGZ Group S.A.- Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa
• Poongsan
• SIA Ammunity
• Sig Sauer
• Thales

第12章 结果·结论

第13章 关于市场预测

附录A:提及的企业

附录B:简称

Market forecast by Region and Ammunition Calibre. Country Analysis, Market and Technology Overview including Critical Raw Materials, Opportunity Analysis, and Leading Company Profiles

The small calibre military ammunition market is entering a multi-year upcycle. Elevated consumption linked to the war in Ukraine and the resetting of NATO readiness targets have shifted demand from peacetime "sustain" levels to durable, programme-based buys. Europe currently leads the expansion, with the United States remaining a strong, steady segment-together underpinning a robust pipeline for qualified suppliers and investors.

Supply remains the gating factor. Bottlenecks in primers, energetics (e.g., nitrocellulose), brass, and skilled labour are constraining output, while new case-draw, primer, bullet-assembly and LAP lines typically require one to three years to reach stable, qualified production. For businesses prepared to act, this imbalance creates attractive pricing, backlog visibility, and an opportunity to lock in long-term customer relationships.

Winning strategies centre on scalable resilience: multi-year framework agreements and predictable training-load volumes to keep lines warm; flexible tooling to swing efficiently across 5.56/7.62/9/.50 and 6.8x51 families; vertical integration or long-term offtakes in primers, powders and brass; and productivity levers such as automation, yield management and OEE. Interoperability and NATO/STANAG conformance remain essential differentiators for exportability and speed to qualification.

Market structure will stay fragmented as nations pursue ammunition autonomy, opening room for partnerships, JVs, and targeted M&A. At the same time, trade frictions and tariff regimes raise input costs and complicate cross-border sourcing-favouring operators that diversify suppliers, regionalise footprints, dual-qualify materials and secure long-dated energetics and energy contracts. For business leaders, the message is clear: the cycle is strong, capacity is scarce, and early movers that build resilient, compliant, cost-competitive platforms will set the pace.

This study examines procurement pathways for small-calibre military ammunition and assesses how the war in Ukraine is reshaping the market. The scale and value of the opportunity favour both new entrants and well-established manufacturers seeking to expand share. Even if the conflict ends in the near term, enduring security requirements and stockpile replenishment will sustain robust demand for years to come.

The study provides a model of the market size, in-depth insights procurement opportunities, mapping out the scope, scale, and timelines of opportunities worldwide. It also offers a solid understanding of the current situation in the small calibre military ammunition business landscape and what should be expected for the future.

Covered in this study:

• Overview: A strong insight of the Small Military Ammunition market in the military market during 2025-2033, including highlights of the demand drivers, trends, and challenges. It also provides a snapshot of the spending with respect to regions as well as segments and sheds light on the emergence of new technologies.
• Market Dynamics: Snapshots into the technological developments in the small calibre military ammunition market. It also analyses the market landscape in key regions, how that is shaped by the war in Ukraine and the political and regulatory efforts undertaken to address a series of issues.
• Segment Analysis: Insights into the various calibres, end-use and regions from a segmental perspective and a detailed analysis of factors influencing the market for each segment.
• Regional Analysis: Insights into the systems market from a regional perspective and a detailed analysis of factors influencing the market for each region.
• Competitive landscape Analysis: Analysis of the competitive landscape of this industry. It provides an overview of key companies, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a SWOT analysis.

Segmentation

The market is segmented by Region and Calibre of the ammunition.

Region

• North America
• Europe
• Asia Pacific
• Middle East & Africa
• Latin America

Calibres

• 5.45mm
• 5.56mm
• 5.7mm
• 6.5mm
• 6.8mm
• 7.62mm
• 8.6mm (.338)
• 9mm
• 0.45APC (11.43mm)
• 12.7mm (.50 cal.)

Reasons to buy:

• This report provides a global view of efforts to scale small-calibre military ammunition production, both to meet Ukraine's wartime consumption and to replenish national stockpiles.
• It identifies and rigorously analyses the forces reshaping the market, including policy decisions, cross-industry collaborations, supply-chain redesign, and the availability of critical raw materials.
• It maps regional production profiles and assistance flows to Ukraine, clarifying how these dynamics are redirecting procurement worldwide.
• Finally, it highlights the principal opportunities and risks so decision-makers can act with confidence to grow their businesses.

Companies Listed:

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1. Trends and Insights
• 1.2. Main Findings
  • 1.2.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region
  • 1.2.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
• 1.3. Key Conclusions

2. Introduction

• 2.1. Scope
• 2.2. Definitions
• 2.3. Methodology
• 2.4. Who will benefit from this study?

3. Technologies and Developments

• 3.1. Technology overview
• 3.2. Types of small calibre ammunition
• 3.3. Ammunition without lead - green ammunition
• 3.4. A new calibre for the US military - 6.8mm
• 3.5. Calibre modularity in rifles
• 3.6. Polymer and metallic lightweight ammunition
• 3.7. Technologies to manage inventories
• 3.8. Anti-drone munition
• 3.9. Technological developments in Russia and China

4. Critical Raw Materials

5. Market Overview

• 5.1. Introduction
• 5.2. Small calibre ammunition market volume distribution over forecast period by Region
• 5.3. Competitive landscape
• 5.4. Europe
  • 5.4.1. European Union
  • 5.4.2. EU Instruments: SAFE, ASAP and EDIRPA
  • 5.4.3. Baltic region
  • 5.4.4. Nordic region
  • 5.4.5. France
  • 5.4.6. Poland
• 5.5. North America
  • 5.5.1. United States
  • 5.5.2. Canada
• 5.6. Overview of the Chinese and Russian markets

6. Market Dynamics and Forecast Factors

• 6.1. Market segmentation
• 6.2. Drivers
• 6.3. Trends
• 6.4. Opportunities
• 6.5. Challenges
• 6.6. Forecast Factors and Notes

7. Country Analysis

• 7.1. Overview
• 7.2. North America
  • 7.2.1. United States

8. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region

• 8.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Region overview
• 8.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Region by Calibre overview
  • 8.2.1. North America market by Calibre overview
  • 8.2.2. Europe market by Calibre overview
  • 8.2.3. Asia Pacific market by Calibre overview
  • 8.2.4. Middle-East & Africa market by Calibre overview
  • 8.2.5. Latin America market by Calibre overview

9. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre

• 9.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Calibre overview
• 9.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Calibre by Region overview
  • 9.2.1. 5.45 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.2. 5.56 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.3. 5.7 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.4. 6.5 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.5. 6.8 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.6. 7.62 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.7. 8.6 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.8. 9 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.9. 11.43 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.10. 12.7 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.11. 12 Gauge market by Region overview

10. Opportunity Analysis

• 10.1. Introduction
• 10.2. Compound Growth Rates
  • 10.2.1. By Region
  • 10.2.2. By Calibre

11. Companies

• 11.1. BAE Systems Plc
  • 11.1.1. Introduction
  • 11.1.2. Products and services
  • 11.1.3. Recent Contracts
  • 11.1.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.2. Beretta Holding
  • 11.2.1. Introduction
  • 11.2.2. Products and services
  • 11.2.3. Recent contracts and developments
  • 11.2.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.3. Czechoslovak Group
  • 11.3.1. Introduction
  • 11.3.2. Products and services
  • 11.3.3. Recent contracts and developments
  • 11.3.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.4. EDGE Group PJSC
  • 11.4.1. Introduction
  • 11.4.2. SWOT Analysis
• 11.5. FN Herstal
  • 11.5.1. Introduction
  • 11.5.2. Products and services
  • 11.5.3. Recent contracts and developments
  • 11.5.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.6. GGG - Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla
  • 11.6.1. Introduction
• 11.7. MKE (Makine ve Kimya Endustrisi) Inc.
  • 11.7.1. Introduction
  • 11.7.2. Products and services
  • 11.7.3. Recent developments and contracts
  • 11.7.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.8. Nammo AS
  • 11.8.1. Introduction
  • 11.8.2. Products and services
  • 11.8.3. Recent developments
  • 11.8.4. Recent Contracts
  • 11.8.5. SWOT Analysis
• 11.9. Olin Winchester
  • 11.9.1. Introduction
  • 11.9.2. Products and services
  • 11.9.3. Recent Contracts
  • 11.9.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.10. PGZ Group S.A.- Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa
  • 11.10.1. Introduction
  • 11.10.2. Products and services
  • 11.10.3. Recent developments and contracts
  • 11.10.4. Recent Contracts
  • 11.10.5. SWOT Analysis
• 11.11. Poongsan
  • 11.11.1. Introduction
  • 11.11.2. Products and services
  • 11.11.3. SWOT Analysis
• 11.12. SIA Ammunity
  • 11.12.1. Introduction
  • 11.12.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition
• 11.13. Sig Sauer
  • 11.13.1. Introduction
  • 11.13.2. Products and services
  • 11.13.3. Recent developments
  • 11.13.4. Recent Contracts
  • 11.13.5. SWOT Analysis
• 11.14. Thales
  • 11.14.1. Introduction
  • 11.14.2. Products and Services
  • 11.14.3. Recent Developments
  • 11.14.4. SWOT Analysis

12. Results and Conclusions

13. About Market Forecast

• 13.1. General
• 13.2. Contact us
• 13.3. Disclaimer
• 13.4. License

Appendix A: Companies Mentioned

Appendix B: Abbreviations

List of figures

• Figure 1: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region
• Figure 2: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
• Figure 3: Barrett Firearms M22 sniper rifle
• Figure 4: Polymer-case 0.50" ammunition
• Figure 5: 5.45mm pellet anti-drone munition
• Figure 6: Critical Raw Materials producing countries
• Figure 7: Critical Raw Materials dependence [%] and volume [mt] by producing countries
• Figure 8: Market volumes over the forecast period per region
• Figure 9: European defence planning path
• Figure 10: The Sig Sauer M7 rifle
• Figure 11: US Army soldiers firing an M240B machine gun
• Figure 12: Market segmentation Small Calibre market
• Figure 13: Sig Sauer's 6.8mm calibre rounds
• Figure 14: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Figure 15: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region %
• Figure 16: North America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 17: North America - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 18: Europe Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 19: Europe - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 20: Asia Pacific Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 21: Asia Pacific - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 22: Middle-East & Africa Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 23: Middle-East & Africa - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 24: Latin America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 25: Latin America - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 26: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Figure 27: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre %
• Figure 28: 5.45 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 29: 5.45 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 30: 5.56 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 31: 5.56 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 32: 5.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 33: 5.7 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 34: 6.5 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 35: 6.5 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 36: 6.8 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 37: 6.8 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 38: 7.62 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 39: 7.62 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 40: 8.6 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 41: 8.6 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 42: 9 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 43: 9 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 44: 11.43 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 45: 11.43 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 46: 12.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 47: 12.7 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 48: 12 Gauge Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 49: 12 Gauge - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 50: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Size by Region
• Figure 51: Small Calibre Military Ammunition CAGR by Region in US$ millions
• Figure 52: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Size by Calibre
• Figure 53: Small Calibre Military Ammunition CAGR by Calibre in US$ millions

List of tables

• Table 1: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region in US$ millions
• Table 2: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre in US$ millions
• Table 3: Critical Raw Materials used in Small Calibre Military Ammunition
• Table 4: Critical Raw Materials - Annual production from low-risk countries (LRC) versus required production for Small Calibre Military Ammunition
• Table 5: Market activity
• Table 6: Country groupings in market sizing
• Table 7: Modelling per region.
• Table 8: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Market Share by Country
• Table 9: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 10: North America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 11: Europe Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 12: Asia Pacific Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 13: Middle-East & Africa Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 14: Latin America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 15: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 16: 5.45 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 17: 5.56 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 18: 5.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 19: 6.5 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 20: 6.8 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 21: 7.62 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 22: 8.6 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 23: 9 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 24: 11.43 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 25: 12.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 26: 12 Gauge Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]