分散式太阳能发电：市场占有率分析、产业趋势/统计、成长预测（2024-2029）

分散式太阳能发电市场规模预计2024年为1,497.2亿美元，预计2029年将达2,096.9亿美元，预测期内（2024-2029年）复合年增长率为6.97%，预计还会成长。

2020 年市场受到 COVID-19 的负面影响。目前市场处于大流行前的水平。

主要亮点

从中期来看，人们对环境问题的认识不断提高，政府对太阳能电池板安装的激励和税收优惠政策以及电网扩建的高成本也预计将推动所研究市场的成长。

另一方面，分散式太阳能作为主要电源的功能丧失可能会对市场成长产生负面影响，是市场的主要限制因素之一。

然而，钙钛矿太阳能电池等技术进步易于製造、表现出高效率和优异的半导体行为，预计在预测期内提供成长机会。

亚太地区在市场上占据主导地位，并且在预测期内也可能实现最高的复合年增长率。这种成长的主要原因是，由于人们对环境问题的日益关注，来自中国和印度等国家的需求占了大部分需求。

分散式太阳能发电市场趋势

太阳能发电系统价格和安装成本的下降预计将推动市场

过去十年，全球太阳能发电面板的平均成本下降了近90%。自 2011 年以来，其他组件价格也大幅下降，降低了分散式和公用事业规模太阳能光电的电费(LCOE)。

由于技术经济和地缘政治因素的综合作用，预计太阳能发电面板的价格将小幅下降。儘管如此，太阳能发电面板的价格预计在预测期内将继续下降。

根据美国可再生能源实验室（NREL）的数据，自2010年以来，美国住宅、商业屋顶和公共规模太阳能光电系统的成本分别下降了64%、69%和82%。这主要是由于欧洲和美国太阳能板价格下降。这种情况将对市场产生积极影响并推动这些地区的太阳能板需求

由于价格下降，许多住宅和商业消费者选择屋顶太阳能发电系统，以降低能源成本和投资回收时间。而且，到2020年为止，光电模组的价格已经下降了90%左右。然而，这一切在 2021 年发生了变化，价格十年来首次大幅上涨 18%。

根据美国国家可再生能源实验室（NREL）的数据，2022年第二季单晶C-Si太阳能模组的平均售价为0.25美元/W，低于2022年第一季的0.26美元/W。组件价格的下降正在增加分散式太阳能发电的需求。

这些高度模组化技术的工业化正在从规模经济、改进的製造流程以及竞争性供应链的竞争加剧中产生显着的效益。太阳能发电系统成本的整体下降也得益于德国等国家实施有效的上网电价补贴。

近年来，太阳能发电成本的下降和电池成本的下降一直是分散式太阳能市场的主要推动力。预计这一趋势将在预测期内持续下去。锂离子电池价格下降超过86%，从2010年的1000美元/kWh降至2021年的132美元/kWh。因此，在预测期内，提高电池和光伏组件的成本效益可能有利于分散式太阳能市场。

亚太地区预计将主导市场

亚太地区将在 2022 年主导分散式太阳能市场，并预计未来将保持其主导地位。该地区具有扩大分散式能源系统（DES）的巨大潜力，特别是离网太阳能和住宅太阳能发电。电网基础设施效率低下、电力供不应求以及分散技术的可扩展扩充性正在为该地区（尤其是中国和印度）的扩张铺平道路。

在中国，由于经济成长和都市化，电力需求不断增加。自2015年以来，该国电力需求每年增长7%。 2022年电力需求将成长3.6%，达到8637TWh。

根据国际可再生能源机构的数据，2022年中国总设备容量约为3,924.4GW，较2021年成长28%。根据中国国家能源局统计，2023年1月至2月新增太阳能发电装置2,023千万瓦，使中国太阳能发电装置容量超过413万千瓦。中国长期以来致力于增加分散式太阳能发电，鼓励住宅和商业终端用户安装屋顶太阳能板。

新加坡的太阳能发电能力在过去几年中有所增加。根据国际可再生能源机构预测，2022年新加坡太阳能发电装置容量将达572MW，较2021年成长15%。此外，该国的目标是到 2030 年太阳能发电量至少达到 2 GWp。

印度也是亚太地区分散式太阳能发电有重大进展的国家之一。印度太阳能发电累积设备容量已达约62.8吉瓦，2022年将新增约13吉瓦。

新能源和可再生能源部正在实施屋顶太阳能计画二期，加速屋顶太阳能发电系统的推广。该计划将为住宅领域提供高达 4GW 的太阳能屋顶容量。与上年度相比，还有一些条款为绩效提升提供奖励。综上所述，亚太地区预计将在预测期内主导分散式太阳能发电市场。

其他福利：

• Excel 格式的市场预测 (ME) 表
• 3 个月的分析师支持

目录

第一章简介

• 调查范围
• 市场定义
• 研究场所

第 2 章执行摘要

第三章调查方法

第四章市场概况

• 介绍
• 2028年之前的市场规模与需求预测
• 最新趋势和发展
• 市场动态
  • 促进因素
  • 抑制因素
• 供应链分析
• 波特五力分析
  • 供应商的议价能力
  • 消费者议价能力
  • 新进入者的威胁
  • 替代品的威胁
  • 竞争公司之间的敌对关係

第五章市场区隔

• 地区
  • 北美洲
  • 欧洲
  • 亚太地区
  • 南美洲
  • 中东/非洲

第六章 竞争形势

• 併购、合资、联盟、协议
• 主要企业策略
• 公司简介
  • Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd
  • First Solar Inc.
  • Activ solar Schweiz Gmbh
  • Yingli Energy Developent Co., Ltd.
  • Trina Solar Limited
  • Sharp Solar Energy Solutions Group
  • Canadian Solar Inc.
  • Tesla Inc.
  • JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd.

第七章 市场机会及未来趋势

The Distributed Solar Power Generation Market size is estimated at USD 149.72 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 209.69 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 6.97% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

The market was negatively impacted by COVID-19 in 2020. Presently the market has now reached pre-pandemic levels.

Key Highlights

• Over the medium term, rising environmental concerns and government policies for incentives and tax benefits for solar panel installation, high cost of grid expansion are also expected to drive the growth of the market studied.
• On the other hand in ability of distributed solarto serve as aprime power source may negatively impact the market's growth and is one of the major restraints for the market.
• Nevertheless, Technological advancements such as perovskite-based PV cells which offers high ease of manufacture, high efficiency, and excellent semiconductor behaviour, are expected to provide growth opportunities in the forecast period.
• The Asia-Pacific region dominates the market and is also likely to witness the highest CAGR during the forecast period. The growth is mainly driven by the majority of the demand coming from the countries such as the China and India, over rising environmental concerns.

Distributed Solar Power Generation Market Trends

Declining Price of Solar PV Systems and Installations Cost Expected to Drive the Market

• Since the last decade, the average cost of a solar PV panel has dropped by nearly 90% worldwide. Prices of other components have also fallen significantly since 2011, reducing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for distributed and utility-scale solar PV generation.
• Due to a combination of techno-economic and geopolitical factors, it is estimated that the cost of solar PV panels prices will reduce slightly. Still, solar PV panel prices will continue to decline during the forecast period.
• According to the United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), since 2010, there has been a 64%, 69%, and 82% reduction in the cost of residential, commercial-rooftop, and utility-scale PV systems in the United States, respectively. The decline in the prices of solar panels in Europe and the United States is primarily due to the drop in solar panel prices. This scenario will positively impact the market and drive the demand for solar panels in these regions.
• Due to the price decline, many residential and commercial consumers opted for rooftop solar PV systems to reduce energy costs and recovery time. Further, till 2020, the prices of solar PV modules declined by approximately 90%. However, this changed in 2021, when for the first time in the last decade, the prices went significantly up by 18%.
• According to National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the average selling price of the Mono C-Si solar PV module was 0.25 USD/watt in Q2 2022, lower than 0.26 USD/watt in Q1 2022. The declining module price has increased the demand for distributed solar power generation.
• The industrialization of these highly modular technologies has yielded impressive benefits from economies of scale and greater competition to improved manufacturing processes and competitive supply chains. The overall decline in solar PV system costs can also be attributed to the effective feed-in tariff programs in countries like Germany.
• The decline in the cost of solar PV and the declining cost of batteries have been significant drivers of the distributed solar energy market in recent years. This trend is expected to continue during the forecast period.
• Prices of lithium-ion batteries have declined by over 86%, from 1,000 USD/kWh in 2010 to 132 USD/kWh in 2021.
• Thus, the improved cost-effectiveness of batteries and solar PV modules will benefit the distributed solar energy market during the forecast period.

Asia Pacific Expected to Dominate the Market

• Asia-Pacific dominated the distributed solar power generation market in 2022 and is expected to continue its dominance in the coming years. The region holds vast potential for expanding distributed energy systems (DES), notably off-grid and residential solar. Inefficiencies in the power grid infrastructure, power supply shortages, and the scalability of decentralized technology pave the way for the deployment in the region, particularly in China and India.
• The electricity demand in China has been increasing due to economic growth and urbanization. Since 2015, the country's power demand has risen by 7% per year. The power demand rose by 3.6% in 2022, reaching 8,637 TWh.
• According to International Renewable Energy Agency, China had a total installed solar PV capacity of about 3924.4 GW in 2022, witnessing an increase of 28% compared to 2021. According to China's National Energy Administration (NEA), China's 20.37 GW new solar PV capacity to have been installed in January 2023 and February 2023, taking the country's total solar fleet to exceed 413 GW, out of which the majority came from distributed solar power generation projects, and the remaining share came from large-scale solar plants accounting for the remaining share.
• China has been focusing on increasing distributed solar power generation by encouraging residential and commercial end-users to install rooftop solar panels for quite some time.
• The solar power capacity in Singapore has risen over the past several years. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, Singapore's total installed solar PV capacity reached 572 MW in 2022, recording a 15% growth compared to 2021. Furthermore, the country aims to generate at least 2 GWp of solar energy by 2030.
• India is another country in Asia-Pacific where distributed solar power generation has a noticeable development. India's cumulative installed solar power capacity reached about 62.8 GW in 2022, adding around 13 GW in 2022.
• The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy is implementing the Rooftop Solar Programme Phase-II for the country's accelerated deployment of solar rooftop systems. The scheme provides financial assistance of up to 4 GW of solar rooftop capacity to the residential sector. There is a provision to incentivize the companies for incremental achievement over the previous year.
• Therefore, owing to the above points, Asia-Pacific is expected to dominate the distributed solar power generation market during the forecast period.

Distributed Solar Power Generation Industry Overview

The distributed solar power generation market is fragmented. Some of the major players in the market (in no particular order) include Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd, First Solar Inc., Tesla Inc., and Canadian Solar Inc., Sharp Energy Solutions Corporation, among others.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Scope of the Study
• 1.2 Market Definition
• 1.3 Study Assumptions

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

4 MARKET OVERVIEW

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Market Size and Demand Forecast in USD billion, till 2028
• 4.3 Recent Trends and Developments
• 4.4 Market Dynamics
  • 4.4.1 Drivers
  • 4.4.2 Restraints
• 4.5 Supply Chain Analysis
• 4.6 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.6.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.6.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
  • 4.6.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.6.4 Threat of Substitutes Products and Services
  • 4.6.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION

• 5.1 Geography
  • 5.1.1 North America
  • 5.1.2 Europe
  • 5.1.3 Asia-Pacific
  • 5.1.4 South America
  • 5.1.5 Middle-East and Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements
• 6.2 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
• 6.3 Company Profiles
  • 6.3.1 Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd
  • 6.3.2 First Solar Inc.
  • 6.3.3 Activ solar Schweiz Gmbh
  • 6.3.4 Yingli Energy Developent Co., Ltd.
  • 6.3.5 Trina Solar Limited
  • 6.3.6 Sharp Solar Energy Solutions Group
  • 6.3.7 Canadian Solar Inc.
  • 6.3.8 Tesla Inc.
  • 6.3.9 JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS