查看购物车
  • Traditional Chinese
  • English
  • Japanese
封面
市场调查报告书
商品编码
1842578

自动驾驶计程车：市场份额分析、行业趋势、统计数据和成长预测（2025-2030 年）

Robo Taxi - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 100 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3个工作天内

价格

※ 本网页内容可能与最新版本有所差异。详细情况请与我们联繫。

简介目录

预计 2025 年自动驾驶计程车市场规模为 8 亿美元，到 2030 年将达到 175.5 亿美元，预测期内（2025-2030 年）的复合年增长率为 85.45%。

机器人计程车市场-IMG1

来自策略和金融投资者的资本流入持续重塑竞争动态，而硬体（尤其以雷射雷达和高性能电脑为代表）的快速萎缩则消除了关键的经济障碍。更清晰的法律规范，例如杜拜的自动驾驶汽车专项法律和德国的KIRA计划，将把试点计画转变为可扩展的商业营运。

全球自动驾驶计程车市场趋势与洞察

AD感测器和运算成本的下降

光达和车载计算单元成本的压缩正在重新定义车队级经济效益。 NVIDIA 的 DRIVE Hyperion 平台即将实现车规级量产，而中国供应商预测雷射雷达模组的价格将低于 1,000 美元，低于十年前的 75,000 美元。在两个车型週期内，每辆 4 级自动驾驶汽车的硬体支出已从 25 万美元降至 15 万美元。由于零件成本接近传统汽车水平，高运转率车队的投资回收期不到三年。这项成本轨迹扩大了自动驾驶计程车市场在高端和大众市场领域的可拓展机会。

政府自动驾驶汽车试点和监管沙盒

各司法管辖区目前发放的是商业牌照，而非实验许可证。德国的KIRA车队在主要路线载客付费，法国正在加速无人驾驶法规，杜拜2023年第9号法律则明确授权付费自动驾驶服务。每项倡议都透过明确责任、保险和资料登录要求，缩短了部署前置作业时间。可预测的合规要求可以释放长期资本，并鼓励在多个城市推出，从而扩大了自动驾驶计程车营运商的可及市场。

社会信任与安全意识差距巨大

儘管Waymo报告其保险索赔比人类驾驶员少90%，但JD Power的信任指数显示，全自动驾驶汽车在100个评分中仅排在第39位。美国和德国消费者对软体可靠性和责任保险范围表示不确定性，71%的消费者拒绝支付单程保险。地区差异也显现出来：上海的一项调查发现，早期引进意愿很高，这表明未来采用情况将不均衡。缩小这一差距需要透明的事故报告、分阶段的推广以及清晰可见的安全免责声明，而所有这些都会延长自动驾驶计程车市场的行销预算和部署时间。

細項分析

2024年，4级自动驾驶汽车将占大部分付费出行份额，占自动驾驶计程车市场份额的61.73%。这些车辆将在地理围栏覆盖的大都会圈运行，在这些区域，高清地图和远端援助将弥补剩余的边缘情况。随着5级原型车在非结构化环境中证明其可靠性，这一细分市场将稳步成长，但其相对比重将下降。 5级自动驾驶汽车的复合年增长率高达87.41%，将打破自动驾驶计程车产业的长期天花板。在预测期内，早期采用者将逐步转型其车队，通常同时运营4级和5级自动驾驶汽车，在摊销沉没投资的同时，为全天候和地形条件下的无人驾驶运营做好准备。

营运商的经济效益也将同步发展：目前，5 级自动驾驶硬体比 4 级自动驾驶硬体贵 15%，但一旦每天使用时间超过 8 小时，远端控制和远端监控的取消就能抵消这一成本差异。 Waymo 最新的设计成本週期已经降低了溢价，这标誌着 5 级曲折点即将成为车队扩张的预设采购选择。

到2024年，纯电力传动系统将占据71.32%的市场份额，复合年增长率为79.52%。电动动力传动系统非常适合自动驾驶汽车的工作週期。再生煞车、较短的维护间隔和集中充电站充电非常适合24小时运作和高里程行驶。因此，在评估整体拥有成本时，与内燃机和混合动力汽车相比，自动驾驶计程车市场更青睐电动车。凤凰城和武汉路边充电站安装的感应式充电垫片进一步缩短了车辆停留时间，并帮助车队维持90%以上的占用率目标。

燃料电池和混合动力替代方案在远距航线和极端温差航线上仍然适用，因为这些航线的电池性能会下降。然而，磷酸铁锂等新型化学电池比镍钴锰电池组每千瓦时成本降低了30%，这使得电动车在区域班车领域更具竞争力。汽车製造商正在为自动驾驶旅游客户提供单独的电池生产线，以减少电池组的波动性和现场停机时间。

受传统叫车客户预期的推动，到2024年，轿车车将占总收入的67.34%。然而，随着营运商转向更高乘客或货物密度的出行方式，厢型车和班车型车辆的成长速度最快，复合年增长率将达到75.23%。专用型车辆正获得监管部门的支持，因为它们可以减少车头挤压区，在驾驶员不在车上时提供更大的内部空间，同时又不影响被动安全性。

数位双胞胎软体可在硬体冻结前模拟数百万公里的路程，从而强化产品开发的回馈循环。以製造为导向的设计可将零件数量减少近 18%，从而降低与小批量生产相关的零件成本风险。因此，自动驾驶计程车市场正在从传统的后装式感测器舱从传统轿车中伸出的方式，转变为隐藏感知阵列的整合外观。

自动驾驶计程车市场按自动驾驶等级（4 级、5 级）、动力（纯电动、其他）、车辆类型（乘用车、其他）、应用领域（客运、其他）、服务类型（租赁、其他）、商业模式（B2C、其他）、车队规模、营运环境和地区进行细分。市场预测以价值（美元）和数量（单位）表示。

区域分析

亚太地区将引领全球市场，到2024年将占据45.13%的市场。中国已在16个城市发放了自动驾驶计程车牌照，其政策目标是到2028年在武汉部署1,000辆全自动驾驶汽车。政府采购奖励措施、自由贸易区试点以及5G的广泛应用正在为基础设施建设创造良性循环。因此，亚太地区自动驾驶计程车市场的复合年增长率高达85.23%。跨国车队正利用这项监管利好，开发多语言语音使用者体验和整合车载支付等功能原型，并向出口市场转型。

北美仍然是营运基准，Waymo 每週在凤凰城、旧金山和洛杉矶三个城市营运 20 万辆自动驾驶汽车。虽然各州的自动驾驶法律各不相同，但已有 27 个州和华盛顿特区批准了 4 级或 5 级自动驾驶汽车，打造了北美大陆最多样化的路线组合。资本持续流入北美，光是 Waymo 就在 2024 年的资金筹措中获得了 56 亿美元的融资。特斯拉正在奥斯汀准备一项试点项目，在混合速高速公路上对无人驾驶车辆进行压力测试，这表明儘管 Cruise 近期有所回落，但竞争仍然激烈。

在欧洲，德国的KIRA计划和法国的全国无人驾驶蓝图正在推动这项进程。儘管密集的、过时的街道网路和GDPR合规义务使营运变得复杂，但汉堡、巴黎和巴塞隆纳等城市仍在寻求零排放走廊，明确支持自动驾驶接驳车。像伦敦的Wayve-Uber这样的战略联盟正在将英国的人工智慧堆迭与叫车业务整合在一起，为欧盟协调法规生效后在整个欧洲大陆的扩展提供模板。

其他福利：

  • Excel 格式的市场预测 (ME) 表
  • 3个月的分析师支持

目录

第一章 引言

  • 研究假设和市场定义
  • 调查范围

第二章调查方法

第三章执行摘要

第四章 市场状况

  • 市场概况
  • 市场驱动因素
    • AD感测器和运算成本下降
    • 政府自动驾驶汽车试点和监管沙盒
    • 解决都市区拥塞将共用共享自主
    • 透过 MaaS 平台整合提高车辆利用率
    • 专为最后一哩物流打造的自动驾驶汽车架构
    • 自动驾驶企业资本流入创纪录
  • 市场限制
    • 社会信任和安全意识之间的差距依然很大
    • 前期投资高，投资报酬率不确定
    • 世界各地的法律责任和安全认证系统存在差异
    • V2X网路安全漏洞
  • 价值/供应链分析
  • 监管状况
  • 技术展望
  • 五力分析
    • 新进入者的威胁
    • 买家/消费者的议价能力
    • 供应商的议价能力
    • 替代品的威胁
    • 竞争对手之间的竞争强度

第五章市场规模及成长预测

  • 按自治级别
    • 4级
    • 5级
  • 透过促销
    • 纯电动车
    • 油电混合车
    • 燃料电池电动车
  • 按车辆类型
    • 车
    • 麵包车/接驳车
  • 按用途
    • 客运
    • 货运/小包裹运输
  • 按服务类型
    • 租赁基础（自由浮动）
    • 基于站点（枢纽到枢纽）
  • 按经营模式
    • B2C（直接面向乘客）
    • B2B（企业/物流合约）
    • 公共运输整合
  • 按车辆保有量
    • OEM 拥有
    • 营运商所有（跨国公司和新兴企业）
    • 公有
  • 按运转环境
    • 市中心
    • 郊区/校园
    • 高速公路/城际公路
    • 混合用途区
  • 按地区
    • 北美洲
      • 美国
      • 加拿大
      • 其他北美地区
    • 南美洲
      • 巴西
      • 阿根廷
      • 其他南美
    • 欧洲
      • 德国
      • 英国
      • 法国
      • 义大利
      • 西班牙
      • 俄罗斯
      • 其他欧洲国家
    • 亚太地区
      • 中国
      • 日本
      • 印度
      • 韩国
      • 其他亚太地区
    • 中东和非洲
      • 土耳其
      • 沙乌地阿拉伯
      • 阿拉伯聯合大公国
      • 南非
      • 奈及利亚
      • 其他中东和非洲地区

第六章 竞争态势

  • 市场集中度
  • 策略倡议
  • 市占率分析
  • 公司简介
    • Waymo LLC
    • GM Cruise LLC
    • Baidu Apollo
    • AutoX Inc.
    • Pony.ai
    • Zoox Inc.
    • Tesla Inc.
    • DiDi Autonomous Driving
    • Yandex Self-Driving Group
    • EasyMile SAS
    • Navya SA
    • Nuro Inc.
    • ZF Friedrichshafen AG
    • AB Volvo-Volvo Autonomous Solutions
    • Mobileye（Intel）

第七章 市场机会与未来展望

简介目录
Product Code: 67287

The Robo Taxi Market size is estimated at USD 0.8 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 17.55 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 85.45% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

Robo Taxi - Market - IMG1

Capital inflows from strategic and financial investors continue to reset competitive dynamics, while rapid hardware deflation-most visibly in LiDAR and high-performance compute-erases a chief economic barrier. Clearer regulatory frameworks, such as Dubai's dedicated autonomous-vehicle law and Germany's KIRA project, convert pilot schemes into scalable commercial operations.

Global Robo Taxi Market Trends and Insights

Declining AD-sensor & computing costs

Unit-price compression in LiDAR and on-board compute redefines fleet-level economics. Chinese suppliers forecast LiDAR modules below USD 1,000, against USD 75,000 less than a decade ago, while NVIDIA's DRIVE Hyperion platform reaches automotive-grade volume production. Hardware outlay per Level 4 vehicle fell from USD 250,000 to USD 150,000 in two model cycles. As bills of material move closer to parity with traditional vehicles, payback periods fall under three years for high-utilisation fleets. This cost trajectory improves the addressable opportunity for the robo taxi market across premium and mass-market urban zones.

Government AV pilots & regulatory sandboxes

Jurisdictions now issue commercial licences rather than test permits. Germany's KIRA fleet carries fare-paying passengers on arterial routes, France fast-tracks driverless statutes, and Dubai's Law No. 9 of 2023 explicitly authorises paid autonomous services. Each initiative compresses deployment lead times by clarifying liability, insurance, and data logging mandates. Predictable compliance requirements unlock long-dated capital and trigger multi-city ramp-ups, thereby expanding the immediately serviceable available market for robo taxi operators.

Persistent public-trust & safety-perception gap

J.D. Power's confidence index scores just 39/100 for fully automated vehicles despite Waymo recording 90% fewer insurance claims than human drivers. Consumers in the United States and Germany cite uncertainty over software reliability and liability coverage, with 71% rejecting per-ride insurance premiums. Regional asymmetry also appears: surveys in Shanghai show higher early-adopter intent, suggesting uptake will not be uniform. Closing this gap calls for transparent incident reporting, incremental rollouts, and visible safety disclaimers, all stretching marketing budgets and deployment timelines for the robo taxi market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

  1. Urban congestion pricing nudging shared autonomy
  2. MaaS platform integration unlocking fleet utilisation.
  3. V2X cybersecurity vulnerabilities

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Level 4 vehicles produced the bulk of paid rides in 2024, holding 61.73% of the Robo taxi market share. They run inside geofenced metropolitan zones where high-definition maps and remote assistance offset residual edge cases. The segment grows steadily yet cedes relative weight as Level 5 prototypes prove reliability in unstructured environments. At an 87.41% CAGR, Level 5 lifts the long-run ceiling of the Robo taxi industry. Over the forecast horizon, early adopters transition fleets incrementally, often operating Level 4 and Level 5 vehicles side-by-side to amortise sunk investments while preparing for driver-out operations in all weather and terrain.

Operator economics evolve in parallel. Level 5 hardware currently carries a 15% cost premium over Level 4 equivalents, yet eliminating tele-operations and remote supervisors offsets that delta once daily utilisation exceeds eight hours. Waymo's latest design-to-cost cycle already narrows the premium, signalling an inflection at which Level 5 becomes the default procurement choice for fleet expansions.

Battery-electric drivetrains held a 71.32% market share in 2024 and exhibit a 79.52% CAGR. Electric powertrains harmonise with autonomous-vehicle duty cycles: regenerative braking, low service intervals, and central depot charging align with high-mileage, round-the-clock operations. The Robo taxi market, therefore, favours electric fleets when evaluating total cost of ownership against internal combustion or hybrid alternatives. Inductive charging pads at curbside stands in Phoenix and Wuhan further truncate dwell time, helping fleets maintain ride availability targets above 90%.

Fuel-cell and hybrid alternatives retain relevance in long-range or temperature-extreme routes where battery performance degrades. However, new chemistries such as lithium-iron-phosphate reduce cost per kilowatt-hour by 30% relative to nickel cobalt manganese packs, extending electric competitiveness into regional shuttles. Automakers dedicate separate battery lines for autonomous-mobility clients, lowering variance and frontline downtime.

Car-based designs captured 67.34% of 2024 revenue due to legacy ride-hailing user expectations. Yet van and shuttle formats compound fastest at a 75.23% CAGR as operators pivot to multi-passenger or cargo-dense missions. Purpose-built shapes gain regulatory favour because their reduced front crumple zones free interior volume without compromising passive safety when no human driver is on board.

Product-development feedback loops tighten as digital twins simulate millions of kilometres before hardware freeze. Design for manufacturability disciplines drive part-count reductions near 18%, lowering bill-of-materials risk for low-volume skews. Consequently, the Robo taxi market moves from retrofit approaches, where sensor pods protrude from traditional sedans, to integrated exteriors that conceal perception arrays.

The Robo Taxi Market is Segmented by Level of Autonomy (Level 4, and Level 5), Propulsion (Battery-Electric Vehicles, and More), Vehicle Type (Car, and More), by Application (Passenger Transportation, and More), by Service Type (Rental-Based, and More), Business Modal (B2C, and More), Fleet Ownership, Operating Environment and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific anchors global upside, with a 45.13% share in 2024. China already licenses robotaxis in 16 cities, and policy goals envision 1,000 fully driverless vehicles in Wuhan by 2028. Government procurement incentives, free-trade-zone test beds, and 5G coverage create a virtuous infrastructure loop. As a result, the Robo taxi market in Asia-Pacific is compounding at an 85.23% CAGR. Multinational fleets leverage this regulatory tailwind to prototype features such as multilingual voice UX and integrated in-vehicle payments, which then migrate to export markets.

North America remains the operational benchmark owing to Waymo's 200,000 weekly rides across Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. State-level autonomy statutes differ, but 27 states and Washington D.C. already authorise Level 4 or Level 5 rides, yielding the continent's most diverse route portfolios. In North America as capital inflows continue-Waymo alone secured USD 5.6 billion in 2024 funding rounds. Tesla prepares an Austin pilot to stress-test driverless rides on mixed-speed arterials, signaling that competitive intensity remains robust despite Cruise's recent retrenchment.

Europe is propelled by Germany's KIRA project and France's nationwide driverless roadmap. Dense medieval street grids and GDPR compliance obligations add operational complexity, yet cities such as Hamburg, Paris, and Barcelona pursue zero-emission corridors that explicitly accommodate autonomous shuttles. Strategic alliances like Wayve-Uber in London integrate British AI stacks with ride-hailing volume, providing a template for continent-wide scaling once harmonised EU regulation takes effect.

  1. Waymo LLC
  2. GM Cruise LLC
  3. Baidu Apollo
  4. AutoX Inc.
  5. Pony.ai
  6. Zoox Inc.
  7. Tesla Inc.
  8. DiDi Autonomous Driving
  9. Yandex Self-Driving Group
  10. EasyMile SAS
  11. Navya SA
  12. Nuro Inc.
  13. ZF Friedrichshafen AG
  14. AB Volvo - Volvo Autonomous Solutions
  15. Mobileye (Intel)

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Declining AD-sensor & computing costs
    • 4.2.2 Government AV pilots & regulatory sandboxes
    • 4.2.3 Urban congestion pricing nudging shared autonomy
    • 4.2.4 MaaS platform integration unlocking fleet utilisation
    • 4.2.5 Purpose-built autonomous van architectures for last-mile logistics
    • 4.2.6 Record capital inflows into autonomous-mobility ventures
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Persistent public-trust & safety-perception gap
    • 4.3.2 High upfront CAPEX & uncertain pay-back
    • 4.3.3 Patchy global liability & safety certification regimes
    • 4.3.4 V2X cyber-security vulnerabilities
  • 4.4 Value/Supply-Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.6 Technological Outlook
  • 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
    • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
    • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value (USD) and Volume (Units))

  • 5.1 By Level of Autonomy
    • 5.1.1 Level 4
    • 5.1.2 Level 5
  • 5.2 By Propulsion
    • 5.2.1 Battery-Electric Vehicles
    • 5.2.2 Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
    • 5.2.3 Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicles
  • 5.3 By Vehicle Type
    • 5.3.1 Car
    • 5.3.2 Van / Shuttle
  • 5.4 By Application
    • 5.4.1 Passenger Transportation
    • 5.4.2 Goods / Parcel Transportation
  • 5.5 By Service Type
    • 5.5.1 Rental-Based (free-floating)
    • 5.5.2 Station-Based (hub-to-hub)
  • 5.6 By Business Model
    • 5.6.1 B2C (direct to riders)
    • 5.6.2 B2B (corporate / logistics contracts)
    • 5.6.3 Public-Transit Integration
  • 5.7 By Fleet Ownership
    • 5.7.1 OEM-Owned
    • 5.7.2 Operator-Owned (TNCs & start-ups)
    • 5.7.3 Public-Agency-Owned
  • 5.8 By Operating Environment
    • 5.8.1 Urban Core
    • 5.8.2 Sub-Urban / Campus
    • 5.8.3 Highway / Inter-city
    • 5.8.4 Mixed-Use Zones
  • 5.9 By Geography
    • 5.9.1 North America
      • 5.9.1.1 United States
      • 5.9.1.2 Canada
      • 5.9.1.3 Rest of North America
    • 5.9.2 South America
      • 5.9.2.1 Brazil
      • 5.9.2.2 Argentina
      • 5.9.2.3 Rest of South America
    • 5.9.3 Europe
      • 5.9.3.1 Germany
      • 5.9.3.2 United Kingdom
      • 5.9.3.3 France
      • 5.9.3.4 Italy
      • 5.9.3.5 Spain
      • 5.9.3.6 Russia
      • 5.9.3.7 Rest of Europe
    • 5.9.4 Asia-Pacific
      • 5.9.4.1 China
      • 5.9.4.2 Japan
      • 5.9.4.3 India
      • 5.9.4.4 South Korea
      • 5.9.4.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
    • 5.9.5 Middle East and Africa
      • 5.9.5.1 Turkey
      • 5.9.5.2 Saudi Arabia
      • 5.9.5.3 United Arab Emirates
      • 5.9.5.4 South Africa
      • 5.9.5.5 Nigeria
      • 5.9.5.6 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (Includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for Key Companies, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Waymo LLC
    • 6.4.2 GM Cruise LLC
    • 6.4.3 Baidu Apollo
    • 6.4.4 AutoX Inc.
    • 6.4.5 Pony.ai
    • 6.4.6 Zoox Inc.
    • 6.4.7 Tesla Inc.
    • 6.4.8 DiDi Autonomous Driving
    • 6.4.9 Yandex Self-Driving Group
    • 6.4.10 EasyMile SAS
    • 6.4.11 Navya SA
    • 6.4.12 Nuro Inc.
    • 6.4.13 ZF Friedrichshafen AG
    • 6.4.14 AB Volvo - Volvo Autonomous Solutions
    • 6.4.15 Mobileye (Intel)

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

  • 7.1 Autonomous ride-hailing integration into city MaaS platforms
  • 7.2 Dedicated robo-van networks for last-mile parcel delivery
  • 7.3 Subscription-based robo-taxi services for senior mobility
  • 7.4 Cross-border robo-taxi corridors (e.g., EU Schengen pilot)
  • 7.5 Carbon-credit monetisation for zero-emission robo-taxi fleets