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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1907228

镍：市场占有率分析、产业趋势与统计、成长预测（2026-2031）

Nickel - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 120 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3个工作天内

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简介目录

2025 年镍市场价值为 340 万吨，预计从 2026 年的 355 万吨增长到 2031 年的 439 万吨，在预测期（2026-2031 年）内复合年增长率为 4.36%。

镍市场-IMG1

中国和印尼不銹钢产量快速成长，对电池级提炼的持续投资，以及对低碳供应链日益增长的偏好，都支撑着销售成长。同时，持续的二级镍供应过剩对基准价格构成压力。印尼具有成本优势的镍生铁和高压酸浸装置，目前占供应量的60%以上，正在重塑贸易格局，并加速与中国不銹钢联合企业的垂直整合。儘管电池产业的需求仍占比不高，但低等级镍材料的供应过剩和电池原料的短缺，正促使企业将策略资本配置到能够供应电动车正极材料的一级镍计划上。由于菲律宾正考虑效法印尼2014年的矿石出口禁令，实施出口限制，政策风险依然较高；此外，深水结核矿计划也成为镍市场长期不确定因素。

全球镍市场趋势及展望

中国和印尼不銹钢产量激增

2025年第一季，中国粗钢产量年增10.6%，光3月就达358万吨。产量的成长带动了对进口含镍原料需求的增加。同时，印尼镍铁产量的不断增长形成了一条完整的供应链，使冶炼厂免受价格波动的影响。这种综效确保了镍市场原料供应的稳定，使得中印合资企业即使在西方高成本矿场停产的经济低迷时期也能继续运作。然而，这种集中化也加剧了系统性风险，因为任何干扰，无论是政策、天气或物流的因素，都可能迅速导致全球供应短缺。

电动车电池级硫酸镍精炼厂快速扩张

淡水河谷于2024年12月完成了其航海湾（Voyages Bay）计画的扩建，新增年产能4.5万吨。预计2026年下半年全面运作。加拿大镍业公司（Canada Nickel）的克劳福德（Crawford）计划预计将于2027年底投产，并在41年的营运期间累积生产160万吨镍。BASF和埃拉梅特在印尼投资26亿美元的合资项目已被取消，但加拿大和美国宣布的新提炼计划表明，镍市场对本地在地采购的、适用于电池的材料的需求依然旺盛，这些材料将用于区域性超级工厂。生产商正寻求透过将高ESG（环境、社会和治理）资格与碳捕获技术相结合，来获得潜在的税额扣抵和价格溢价。

持续的二级原油供应过剩导致基准价格下跌

印尼镍铁供应量预计将从2018年占全球供应量的6%飙升至2025年的50%以上，这将压低镍价，并迫使西方高成本矿场进行维护。必和必拓(BHP)已暂停其位于提炼)、卡尔古利(Kalgoorlie)、基思山(Mount Keith)和伦斯特(Leinster)的矿山运营至2027年，约1600名员工将受到影响。嘉能可(Glencore)计画在2024年减产9%，并关闭其科尼亚姆博(Koniambo)矿山，这进一步凸显了镍市场在适应新的成本领先者时，现有资产面临的压力。

细分市场分析

2025年，不锈钢产量占镍市场份额的69.20%，再次巩固了其作为建筑、消费品和工业领域关键耐腐蚀合金的地位。儘管经济成长放缓，中国钢铁厂在2025年初仍实现了10.6%的增产，支撑了强劲的需求。铸造和合金领域保持了航太和耐热部件的稳定（但呈下降趋势）供应，而电镀应用在装饰性表面处理方面获得了较高的附加价值利润。

儘管电池市场占有率较小，但它是成长最快的细分市场，预计到2031年将以4.96%的复合年增长率成长。对电动车电池组和大规模储能的需求正在推动相关投资，例如淡水河谷的航海湾矿扩建项目和加拿大镍业的碳捕获提炼。预计到2031年，电池用镍市场规模将达到61万吨，比2024年的基准值翻倍。虽然磷酸铁锂电池和磷酸锂铁离子电池的普及将抑制市场成长，但高镍电池仍将继续主导高阶汽车的高能量正极材料市场，并有望获得一级溢价。

本镍市场报告按应用领域（不銹钢、铸造、合金、电池、电镀及其他应用）、终端用户行业（汽车及运输设备、金属製品、耐用消费品、建筑、工业机械及其他终端用户行业）和地区（亚太地区、北美、欧洲及其他地区）进行细分。市场预测以吨为单位。

区域分析

预计到2025年，亚太地区将占全球镍市场需求的71.10%，并在2031年之前以5.10%的复合年增长率成长。中国对不銹钢需求的快速成长以及印尼垂直整合的供应链正在推动区域成长，而菲律宾潜在的矿石出口限制可能会进一步加剧东协内部的加工集中。日本和韩国保持先进合金的生产，而印度的工业基础也在稳步推动消费。

在北美，以加拿大镍业的克劳福德矿计划和淡水河谷公司的航海湾扩建计划为代表的本地化供应工作正在加紧推进。随着美国超级工厂建设计画需要符合《反通膨法案》采购规定的I类原料，预计北美镍市场规模将进一步扩大。墨西哥由于地理位置接近性美国汽车工厂，在物流方面具有优势，但关税波动带来了不确定性。

欧洲正努力在严格的ESG标准和成本压力之间寻求平衡。汽车製造商对经认证的绿色金属的需求，正推动欧洲及邻国挪威对低碳提炼的投资。南美洲，巴西拥有全球约12%的蕴藏量，儘管面临物流挑战，但仍吸引大量资本，巴西镍业的皮奥伊计划是最好的例证。中东和非洲地区是一个新兴市场，正吸引海湾投资基金的关注，他们寻求在前景看好的矿产资源中寻找投资机会。

其他福利：

  • Excel格式的市场预测（ME）表
  • 3个月的分析师支持

目录

第一章 引言

  • 研究假设和市场定义
  • 调查范围

第二章调查方法

第三章执行摘要

第四章 市场情势

  • 市场概览
  • 市场驱动因素
    • 中国和印尼不銹钢产量激增
    • 电动车电池级硫酸镍精炼厂快速扩张
    • 绿色镍溢价和OEM供应链本地化
    • 儘管整体供应过剩，一级镍仍出现短缺。
    • 多个新兴的深海结核计划
  • 市场限制
    • 持续的II类药物供应过剩导致基准价格走低
    • 采用磷酸铁锂电池和钠离子电池化学体系
    • 印尼HPAL和NPI计划遭遇ESG舆论反弹
  • 价值链分析
  • 监管环境
  • 技术展望
  • 波特五力模型
    • 供应商的议价能力
    • 买方的议价能力
    • 新进入者的威胁
    • 替代品的威胁
    • 竞争程度

第五章 市场规模与成长预测

  • 透过使用
    • 不銹钢
    • 铸件
    • 合金
    • 电池
    • 电镀
    • 其他用途
  • 按最终用户行业划分
    • 汽车和运输设备
    • 金属加工产品
    • 耐久性消费品
    • 建造
    • 工业机械
    • 其他终端用户产业
  • 按地区
    • 亚太地区
      • 中国
      • 印度
      • 日本
      • 韩国
      • 亚太其他地区
    • 北美洲
      • 美国
      • 加拿大
      • 墨西哥
    • 欧洲
      • 德国
      • 英国
      • 义大利
      • 法国
      • 俄罗斯
      • 其他欧洲地区
    • 南美洲
      • 巴西
      • 阿根廷
      • 其他南美洲
    • 中东和非洲
      • 沙乌地阿拉伯
      • 南非
      • 其他中东和非洲地区

第六章 竞争情势

  • 市场集中度
  • 策略趋势
  • 市占率（%）/排名分析
  • 公司简介
    • Anglo American
    • Antam
    • BHP
    • Canada Nickel Company
    • Eramet
    • Glencore
    • Jinchuan Group International Resources Co., Ltd.
    • Nickel Asia Corporation
    • Norilsk Nickel
    • PACIFIC METALS CO., LTD.
    • PT Vale Indonesia
    • Sherritt International Corporation
    • Sibanye-Stillwater
    • South32
    • Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd.
    • TSINGSHAN HOLDING GROUP
    • Vale

第七章 市场机会与未来展望

简介目录
Product Code: 52343

The Nickel Market was valued at 3.40 million tons in 2025 and estimated to grow from 3.55 million tons in 2026 to reach 4.39 million tons by 2031, at a CAGR of 4.36% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

Nickel - Market - IMG1

Surging stainless-steel production in China and Indonesia, sustained investment in battery-grade refining, and mounting preference for low-carbon supply chains underpin volume growth, even as persistent Class II oversupply weighs on benchmark prices. Indonesia's cost-advantaged nickel pig iron and high-pressure acid-leach hubs now account for more than 60% of the supply, reshaping trade flows and accelerating vertical integration into Chinese stainless-steel complexes. Battery-sector demand, though still a minority share, drives strategic capital allocation toward Class I projects capable of supplying electric-vehicle cathodes amid a simultaneous surplus of lower-grade material and deficit of battery-ready feedstock. Policy risk remains elevated as the Philippines considers export restrictions modeled on Indonesia's 2014 ore ban, while deep-sea nodule projects emerge as a long-term wildcard for the nickel market.

Global Nickel Market Trends and Insights

Surging Stainless-Steel Output in China and Indonesia

Chinese crude stainless-steel production rose 10.6% year-over-year in Q1 2025, reaching 3.58 million tons in March alone. Higher output lifts import demand for nickel-bearing feedstock, while Indonesian nickel pig iron growth creates an integrated corridor that cushions mills against price swings. This symbiosis ensures raw material availability for the nickel market and enables Chinese-Indonesian ventures to operate during downturns that sideline higher-cost Western mines. Yet, the concentration amplifies systemic risk because any disruption-whether policy, weather, or logistics-could quickly tighten global supply.

Rapid Build-Out of EV Battery-Grade Nickel-Sulfate Refineries

Vale finalized the Voisey's Bay expansion in December 2024, adding 45,000 tons of annual capacity with full ramp-up slated for H2 2026. Canada Nickel Company's Crawford project aims to achieve first output by the end of 2027, projecting 1.6 million tons over a 41-year life. Although BASF-Eramet canceled a USD 2.6 billion Indonesian venture, new refinery announcements in Canada and the United States underscore the nickel market's need for localized, battery-ready feedstock to serve regional gigafactories. Producers aim to blend elevated ESG credentials with carbon-capture technology to unlock potential tax credits and price premiums.

Persistent Class II Oversupply Drags Benchmark Pricing

Indonesian nickel pig iron surged from 6% of global supply in 2018 to more than 50% in 2025, depressing prices and forcing higher-cost Western mines into care and maintenance. BHP suspended operations at its Kwinana refinery, Kalgoorlie smelter, Mt Keith, and Leinster mines until 2027, affecting approximately 1,600 workers. Glencore's 9% decline in 2024 output and Koniambo's shutdown further highlight pressure on legacy assets as the nickel market adjusts to the new cost leader.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

  1. Green-Nickel Premiums and OEM Supply-Chain Localization
  2. Class I Nickel Deficit Despite Overall Surplus
  3. LFP and Sodium-Ion Battery Chemistry Adoption

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Stainless-steel production retained 69.20% of the nickel market in 2025, reaffirming the metal's role in corrosion-resistant alloys across construction, consumer, and industrial spheres. Chinese mills boosted output by 10.6% in early 2025, underpinning bulk demand even as economic growth moderates. Casting and alloy segments serve aerospace and heat-resistant parts with stable but lower volumes, while plating applications extract premium margins for decorative finishes.

The batteries segment, although accounting for a smaller share, is the fastest-growing slice with a 4.96% CAGR through 2031. Demand stems from electric-vehicle packs and grid-scale storage, driving investments such as Vale's Voisey's Bay upgrade and Canada Nickel's carbon-capture-enabled refinery. The nickel market size for batteries is forecast to reach 0.61 million tons by 2031, doubling its 2024 baseline. LFP and sodium-ion adoption constrain the upside, yet high-energy cathodes in premium vehicles continue to favor nickel-rich chemistries that command Class I premiums.

The Nickel Market Report is Segmented by Application (Stainless Steel, Casting, Alloys, Batteries, Plating, and Other Applications), End-User Industry (Automotive and Transportation, Fabricated Metal Products, Consumer Durables, Construction, Industrial Machinery, and Other End-User Industries), and Geography (Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Volume (Tons).

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific governed 71.10% of global nickel market demand in 2025 and is projected to expand at a 5.10% CAGR through 2031. China's stainless-steel surge and Indonesia's vertically integrated supply chain define regional momentum, while possible Philippine ore-export restrictions could further concentrate processing inside ASEAN. Japan and South Korea maintain advanced alloy production, and India's industrial base steadily lifts consumption.

North America intensifies efforts to localize supply, led by Canada Nickel's Crawford project and Vale's Voisey's Bay expansion. The nickel market size in North America is forecast to grow as gigafactory pipelines in the United States demand Class I feedstock compliant with the Inflation Reduction Act sourcing rules. Mexico's proximity to U.S. auto plants offers logistical advantages, though tariff volatility injects uncertainty.

Europe balances stringent ESG standards with cost pressures. Automakers seek certified green metal, encouraging investment in low-carbon refining within the bloc and in neighboring Norway. South America, with Brazil holding around 12% of global reserves, attracts capital despite logistics challenges, evidenced by Brazilian Nickel's Piaui project. The Middle-East and Africa remain emergent but attract Gulf investment funds seeking exposure to future-oriented minerals.

  1. Anglo American
  2. Antam
  3. BHP
  4. Canada Nickel Company
  5. Eramet
  6. Glencore
  7. Jinchuan Group International Resources Co., Ltd.
  8. Nickel Asia Corporation
  9. Norilsk Nickel
  10. PACIFIC METALS CO., LTD.
  11. PT Vale Indonesia
  12. Sherritt International Corporation
  13. Sibanye-Stillwater
  14. South32
  15. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd.
  16. TSINGSHAN HOLDING GROUP
  17. Vale

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Surging stainless-steel output in China and Indonesia
    • 4.2.2 Rapid build-out of EV battery-grade nickel sulphate refineries
    • 4.2.3 Green-nickel premiums and OEM supply-chain localisation
    • 4.2.4 Class I nickel deficit despite overall surplus
    • 4.2.5 Multiple emerging deep-sea nodule projects
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Persistent Class II oversupply drags benchmark pricing
    • 4.3.2 LFP and sodium-ion battery chemistry adoption
    • 4.3.3 ESG backlash versus Indonesian HPAL and NPI projects
  • 4.4 Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.6 Technological Outlook
  • 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
    • 4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
    • 4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
    • 4.7.5 Degree of Competition

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Volume)

  • 5.1 By Application
    • 5.1.1 Stainless Steel
    • 5.1.2 Casting
    • 5.1.3 Alloys
    • 5.1.4 Batteries
    • 5.1.5 Plating
    • 5.1.6 Other Applications
  • 5.2 By End-user Industry
    • 5.2.1 Automotive and Transportation
    • 5.2.2 Fabricated Metal Products
    • 5.2.3 Consumer Durables
    • 5.2.4 Construction
    • 5.2.5 Industrial Machinery
    • 5.2.6 Other End-user Industries
  • 5.3 By Geography
    • 5.3.1 Asia-Pacific
      • 5.3.1.1 China
      • 5.3.1.2 India
      • 5.3.1.3 Japan
      • 5.3.1.4 South Korea
      • 5.3.1.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
    • 5.3.2 North America
      • 5.3.2.1 United States
      • 5.3.2.2 Canada
      • 5.3.2.3 Mexico
    • 5.3.3 Europe
      • 5.3.3.1 Germany
      • 5.3.3.2 United Kingdom
      • 5.3.3.3 Italy
      • 5.3.3.4 France
      • 5.3.3.5 Russia
      • 5.3.3.6 Rest of Europe
    • 5.3.4 South America
      • 5.3.4.1 Brazil
      • 5.3.4.2 Argentina
      • 5.3.4.3 Rest of South America
    • 5.3.5 Middle-East and Africa
      • 5.3.5.1 Saudi Arabia
      • 5.3.5.2 South Africa
      • 5.3.5.3 Rest of Middle-East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share (%)/Ranking Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Anglo American
    • 6.4.2 Antam
    • 6.4.3 BHP
    • 6.4.4 Canada Nickel Company
    • 6.4.5 Eramet
    • 6.4.6 Glencore
    • 6.4.7 Jinchuan Group International Resources Co., Ltd.
    • 6.4.8 Nickel Asia Corporation
    • 6.4.9 Norilsk Nickel
    • 6.4.10 PACIFIC METALS CO., LTD.
    • 6.4.11 PT Vale Indonesia
    • 6.4.12 Sherritt International Corporation
    • 6.4.13 Sibanye-Stillwater
    • 6.4.14 South32
    • 6.4.15 Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd.
    • 6.4.16 TSINGSHAN HOLDING GROUP
    • 6.4.17 Vale

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

  • 7.1 White-space and unmet-need assessment