随着5G寒冬到来，电信厂商应对市场重大变化：营运商支出疲软推动厂商整合和营运审查、开放RAN占据主导地位、云端需求推动联盟

2023年，电信网路基础设施供应商收入每年下降9.2%，至2118亿美元，为2014年以来的最大降幅。这一下降反映了美国、中国和欧洲部分地区等主要市场在密集投资后完成了 5G 建设。随着营运商在经济放缓和高利率的情况下缩减支出，营运商面临资本限制和供应商市场日益增加的压力。

地缘政治紧张局势也扰乱了供应链和市场准入，尤其是出于安全考虑而影响到华为和中兴通讯等供应商。随着营运商重新评估供应商合作伙伴关係以确保与国家安全优先事项保持一致，这些课题正在进一步改变市场动态。此外，AWS、GCP 和 Azure 等网路规模云端供应商的崛起正在透过云端迁移、人工智慧整合和进阶自动化来改变通讯基础设施，为传统供应商带来竞争威胁和合作机会。

2024 年供应商市场的前景好坏参半，营运商资本支出预计下降，经济压力持续，这可能会恶化上半年的收入前景。由于宽频扩张和有利于非中国供应商的监管转变，北美和​​欧洲的区域趋势显示出成长潜力。不过，这些或许并不能完全抵销上半年的挫折。预计从2025年开始将出现显着成长，虽然很有可能从2024年开始下降，但不会像2023年年减9.2%那么严重。

本报告分析了 2024 年中期电信业对网路基础设施解决方案（硬体、软体和服务）的需求。我们涵盖了支出增加的前景、供应商的市场动态以及供应商应对当前市场环境应采取的策略。

提及的公司

目录

• 摘要
• 主要市场5G建设结束以及宏观经济不确定性，供应商市场陷入动盪
• 由于云端供应商的崛起、市场整合、供应商审查和开放 RAN 的推动，市场动态正在发生变化
• 供应商市场的前景好坏参半：2024 年上半年很困难，但 2024 年下半年可能会有所改善。
• 附录

This brief analyzes demand for network infrastructure solutions (hardware, software, and services) in the telecommunications (telco) industry as of mid-2024. The brief addresses prospects for spending growth, vendor market share dynamics, and what strategies vendors should pursue to cope with the current market environment.

The telecom vendor market is navigating a turbulent landscape shaped by significant shifts and challenges. In 2023, telco network infrastructure (telco NI) vendor revenues declined sharply, down 9.2% annually to $211.8 billion, marking the steepest drop at least since 2014. This downturn reflects the completion of 5G buildouts in major markets like the US, China, and parts of Europe, following a period of intense investment. As telcos scale back spending amid economic slowdowns and high interest rates, operators face capital constraints, intensifying vendor market pressures.

Adding to the complexity are geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains and market access, notably impacting vendors like Huawei and ZTE, due to security concerns. These challenges have prompted telcos to reevaluate vendor partnerships to ensure alignment with national security priorities, further reshaping market dynamics. Meanwhile, the rise of webscale cloud providers - AWS, GCP, and Azure - is transforming telecom infrastructure through cloud migration, AI integration, and advanced automation, posing both competitive threats and partnership opportunities for traditional vendors.

The top three telco NI vendors remain the same as for the last few years: Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia, with aggregate share totaling just under 38%, unchanged from 2022. Despite this apparent stability, significant market shifts are unfolding. These shifts, sparked by a downturn in telco spending, include vendor consolidation illustrated by Broadcom's acquisition of VMware, HPE-Juniper, and Nokia-Infinera; alongside operational restructuring and widespread layoffs across the industry. Additionally, cloud providers are reshaping the vendor landscape by offering cloud-based telecom solutions, albeit with modest market share gains. Another notable shift is the push for Open RAN adoption by established vendors and telcos who are increasingly embracing open architectures supported by substantial government investments. Developments such as AT&T's partnership with Ericsson and Deutsche Telekom's collaboration with Nokia reflect growing momentum towards open, interoperable networks, albeit with integration challenges and slower-than-expected uptake among brownfield operators.

Looking ahead, the vendor market faces a mixed outlook for 2024, with projected telco capex declines and ongoing economic pressures likely to dampen revenue prospects in the first half. Regional developments in North America and Europe offer pockets of growth potential, driven by broadband expansion and regulatory shifts favoring non-Chinese vendors. But these may not fully offset the first-half setbacks. Substantial gains are projected from 2025 onward, indicating that while 2024 is likely to decline, it won't be as severe as 9.2% YoY drop in 2023.

Companies mentioned:

Table of Contents

• Summary
• Vendor market roils as 5G buildouts end in key markets amid macroeconomic uncertainty
• Market dynamics shift amid cloud providers' rise, market consolidation, vendor overhaul, and Open RAN push
• Mixed outlook for vendor market as challenging 1H24 may potentially improve in 2H24
• Appendix

Figures:

• Figure 1: Annualized Telco NI vendor revenues ($B) vs. YoY annualized sales growth (%)
• Figure 2: Annualized market share of top 5 vendors in the telco vertical, 4Q19-4Q23
• Figure 3: Annualized vendor revenues ($B) in telco vertical, 4Q19-4Q23

Tables:

• Table 1: Outlook commentary for select key vendors