网路规模网路营运商市场回顾（2024 年第三季）：资本支出年增 58%，推动 12 个月总额超过 2,500 亿美元前景强劲，但生成式人工智慧面临现实需求

2024 年第三季的资本支出将年增 58%，12 个月累计总额将超过 2,500 亿美元

对21 家Web 规模网路营运商(WNO) 的调查发现，在过去12 个月内（2023 年第4 季- 2024 年第3 季），Web 规模网路营运商预计将创造2 万亿美元的收入，收入为5,300 亿美元，成长9.1%年比来看，研发费用3,070亿美元，成长6.5%，资本支出2,540亿美元，成长32.5%。截至2024年9月，帐面现金及短期投资为6,310亿美元（年减11.3%），总负债为5,380亿美元（年减4.1%）。此外，截至 2024 年 9 月，Webscaler 的净 PP&E 帐面价值为 8,540 亿美元，比去年同期成长 25.9%。截至第三季末，Webscaler 拥有约 422.6 万名员工，较 2023 年 9 月的 413 万名成长 2.3%。

本报告回顾了自 2011 年以来 Webscale 网路营运商 (WNO) 市场的成长和发展。

视觉

报告重点：

• 营收：2024 年第三季单季营收为 6,386 亿美元，年增 10.6%。这使得年收入达到 25,270 亿美元。推动营收成长的主要力量是四大巨头： AAlphabet、Amazon、Meta (FB)、Microsoft。这些公司已连续五个季度实现两位数的营收成长，遥遥领先同业。从截至2024 年第三季的年化期间来看，Meta 将成为成长最快的公司，从2022 年第四季到2023 年第三季成长23.1%，其次是印度（成长16.4%）和Alphabet（成长14.4%），以及Amazon（成长11.9%）。 2024年第三季成长的最大贡献者将是亚马逊，预计其单季营收将较2023年第三季增加158亿美元，2024年第三季年增11.0%，达到1,589亿美元。日本IT服务和云端运算供应商Fujitsu的营收年减4.92亿美元，至58亿美元，降幅7.8%。
• 资本支出：在 2023 年下降 5% 之后，网路规模资本支出在 2024 年以令人惊讶的快速和不可持续的速度增长。 2012年第三季资本支出为756亿美元，年化总额达2,539亿美元，比去年同期成长32.5%，创历史新高。投资者对生成式人工智慧的兴趣正在迅速增长，并推动了资料中心的 GPU 投资。
• 获利能力：Webscale 的自由现金流利润率预计在 2024 年第三季平均年化为 17.6%，略低于去年同期（17.9%），但预计将成长2022 年第三季的复合年增长率为1.4%。 2023年4季至2024年3季的平均净利率为18.9%，略高于2023年3季的16.9%。这两项获利指标与疫情之前的水平大致相同。
• 员工人数：到 2024 年 9 月，网路规模市场的员工人数将达到 423 万，略高于 2023 年 9 月的 413 万。考虑到一些网路扩展器的规模以及员工人数的变化速度（尤其是对于电子商务专家而言），这种差异很小。
• 区域趋势：亚太地区已经连续几季拖累市场，而这种趋势一直延续到第三季。美洲和欧洲、中东和非洲地区的 Webscale 营收在过去几季一直以两位数的低速成长，但亚太地区表现不佳，预计 2024 年第三季营收年增 5%。几季的成长率一直保持在个位数的低点。

调查主题

WNO 前 8 名

目录

• 1. 报告重点
• 2. 展望 3. 分析
• 4.关键统计数据
• 5.公司详细信息
• 6.WNO 前 8 大公司
• 7. 企业标竿管理
• 8. 依地区细分
• 9.原始数据 10. 汇率
• 11.关于本书

Capex jumps 58% YoY in 3Q24, pushing 12 mo. total over $250 billion; outlook remains strong, but reality check is needed for GenAI

This report reviews the growth and development of the webscale network operator (WNO, or webscale) market since 2011. It covers 21 companies. In the most recent 12 months (4Q23-3Q24), webscalers represented $2.53 trillion (T) in revenues (+9.1% YoY), $307 billion (B) in R&D spending (+6.5% YoY), and $254B in capex (+32.5% YoY). They had $631B of cash and short-term investments (-11.3% YoY) on the books as of September 2024, and $538B in total debt (-4.1% YoY). The value of webscalers' net plant, property & equipment (net PP&E) on the books as of September 2024 was $854B, up 25.9% YoY. Webscalers employed approximately 4.226 million (M) people at the end of 3Q24, up 2.3% from the Sept. 2023 total of 4.130M.

VISUALS

Below are highlights from the report:

• Revenues: Single quarter revenues in 3Q24 were $638.6 billion (B), up 10.6% YoY. That pushed annualized revenues to $2.527 trillion. Topline growth has been driven by the big 4: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta (FB) and Microsoft. For five straight quarters, all of these companies have recorded double digit revenue growth, well above the rest of the pack. For the 3Q24 annualized period, the fastest growth came from Meta, up 23.1% versus 4Q22-3Q23, followed by Microsoft (+16.4%), Alphabet (14.4%), and Amazon (11.9%). The biggest dollar impact on growth in 3Q24 came from Amazon, as its single quarter revenues grew $15.8 billion from 3Q23 to end 3Q24 at $158.9B, up 11.0% YoY. The only curb on growth in 3Q24 was Japanese IT services & cloud vendor Fujitsu, which recorded 3Q24 revenues of $5.8B, down $492 million (M) YoY (-7.8%).
• Capex: After declining 5% in 2023, webscale capex has grown at incredibly fast, unsustainable rates in 2024: up by 25%, 51%, and 58% YoY in the first three quarters of the year. 3Q24 capex of $75.6B pushed the annualized total to $253.9B, up 32.5% YoY, and another all-time high. Investor interest in generative AI has spread rapidly, driving GPU spend in the data center. The current investment spike would seem to be inspired by a mix of hype and fear of missing out, as GenAI brings with it a plethora of legal & regulatory risks and relative lack of proven business models. Most recent webscale capex is focused on outfitting existing data centers: from 46% of annualized capex in 3Q22, Network/IT and software capex was 53% of total capex for the latest annualized period. The biggest capex outlays in 3Q24 came from Amazon ($22.6B), Microsoft ($14.9B), Alphabet ($13.1B), and Meta (FB) ($8.3B). These four account for about 80% of single quarter spending. They are the reason behind the unsustainable surge in the price of NVIDIA stock.
• Profitability: Webscale free cash flow margins averaged out to 17.6% for the 3Q24 annualized period, a bit lower than a year prior (17.9%) but higher than the 14.1% booked in 3Q22. Average net profit margin for 4Q23-3Q24 was 18.9%, a bit higher than 16.9% in 3Q23. Both profitability metrics are around the same level as in the year before COVID. Meta, Tencent and Microsoft are regularly near or at the top of the heap on both metrics, and this was again the case in 3Q24. The ecommerce specialists Amazon and Alibaba are the laggards, as usual. The biggest drops in free cash flow margins came at the companies with surging capex: Alphabet and Amazon. The biggest decline in net profitability was Apple, which was fined 13 billion Euros in September 2024 for taking illegal profits from a tax scheme in Ireland over two decades. This tax scheme has been widely known about and criticized for many years. While 13 billion sounds like a lot, it hardly impacted Apple's market trajectory at all. Apple's stock price is around 14% higher now than on 1 July 2024. Consumers and taxpayers are losing out, while big tech uses political friends to secure victories. This will get worse with new political leadership in the US.
• Employees: Headcount in the webscale market totaled to 4.23 million in September 2024, slightly up from 4.13 million in September 2023. This difference is negligible, considering the size of some of the webscalers and how quickly the ecommerce specialists in particular can change workforce levels. Amazon's workforce grew by 51,000 between September 2023 and 2024, for instance. Total webscale headcount has been approximately 4.1 to 4.2 million or so steadily since late 2021. Some of the biggest webscalers are investing heavily in AI and GenAI, with one clear goal being to improve their internal cost efficiencies. This inevitably will mean fewer employees. Even within the ecommerce space, there is a rising use of robots and autonomous vehicles in the logistics chain. Per our latest forecast, we expect webscale employment to rise slightly in 2025 but decline thereafter due to greater use of robotics, automation and AI.
• Regional trends: The Asia-Pacific region has been a drag on the market for several quarters, and that continued in 3Q24. Webscale revenues in the Americas, Europe, and MEA have been growing in the low double digit range for a few quarters, but AP has been weak: 3Q24 revenue growth was 5% YoY, in line with the last few quarters of low single digit percentage growth. Weak Asian currencies and a very competitive 'big tech' market in China account for the gap. Another factor is TikTok. This company, owned by ByteDance, has grown at explosive rates for the last few years, but remains private. We have no reasonable way to include TikTok figures in our database. The ByteDance surge also ate into the 2022-23 growth of some western webscalers, notably Meta (FB), but that effect has ebbed.

Coverage

Top 8 WNOs

Other WNOs

Table of Contents

• 1. Report highlights
• 2. Outlook
• 3. Analysis
• 4. Key Stats
• 5. Company Drilldown
• 6. Top 8 WNOs
• 7. Company Benchmarking
• 8. Regional Breakouts
• 9. Raw Data
• 10. Exchange Rates
• 11. About

List of Figures

• 1. Key Metrics: Growth rates, Annualized 3Q24/3Q23 vs. 2019-23
• 2. WNO Revenues: Single-quarter & annualized (US$M)
• 3. Top 8 WNOs: YoY revenue growth in 3Q24
• 4. Annualized profitability: WNOs
• 5. Free cash flow per employee, 3Q24 annualized (US$)
• 6. FCF Margins vs. Net Margins, 3Q24 annualized
• 7. Advertising revenues as % total (FY2023)
• 8. Annualized capex and R&D spending: WNOs (% revenues)
• 9. WNO capex by type, Annualized: 3Q15-3Q24 (US$M)
• 10. Network & IT capex as share of revenues, 3Q24 annualized
• 11. R&D expenses as % revenues, Top 8 WNOs (3Q24 annualized)
• 12. Acquisition spending vs. capex spending, annualized (US$M)
• 13. Net PP&E per employee (US$' 000) - 3Q24
• 14. Ranking the Webscale Network Operators: Revenues; R&D; Capex; Network & IT capex - 2023 & 3Q24 (US$B)
• 15. Annualized spending share for key webscalers since 2011 Capex: Network, IT and software
• 16. Share of webscale spending by company, 3Q24 and 3Q23 annualized (Capex: Network, IT and software)
• 17. Energy consumption vs. Net PP&E for key webscalers in 2023
• 18. USA: Webscale capex total ($M) and % of global market, 2011-23
• 19. Webscale vs. Telco Market: Annualized Capex (US$B)
• 20. Webscale vs. Telco Market: Annualized capital intensity
• 21. Revenues: annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 22. Profitability (Net Profit; Cash from operations; Free cash flow): annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 23. Spending (R&D; M&A; Capex; Network & IT capex; Lease): annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 24. Cash & Short-term Investments: annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 25. Debt (Total debt; Net debt): annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 26. Property, Plant & Equipment: annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 27. Key Ratios: Net margin; R&D/revenues; Capex/revenues; Network & IT capex/revenues; Free cash flow/revenues; Lease costs/revenues - annual and annualized (%)
• 28. Total employees
• 29. Revenue per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 30. FCF per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 31. Net PP&E per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 32. Revenues & Spending (US$M)
• 33. Webscale Business Mix by Revenues (FY2023) - MTN Consulting estimates
• 34. Top 10 recent acquisitions & investments
• 35. Data center footprint
• 36. Revenues (US$M) & YoY revenue growth (%), single-quarter: by company
• 37. Revenues, annualized (US$M): by company
• 38. Annualized profitability margins: by company
• 39. Annualized capex and capital intensity: by company
• 40. Annualized capex and R&D spending as % of revenues: by company
• 41. Share of WNO network & IT capex, Annualized: by company
• 42. Total employees: by company
• 43. Annualized per-employee metrics (US$000s): by company
• 44. Net debt (debt minus cash & stock) (US$M): by company
• 45. Top 10 webscale employers in 3Q24: Global market
• 46. Headcount changes in 3Q24 (YoY %): Global market
• 47. Net PP&E: USA vs. RoW (by company)
• 48. Net PP&E: total in $M and % global webscale market (by company)
• 49. Energy consumption, MWh and % webscale total (by company)
• 50. Share of webscale energy consumption, net PP&E, and capex (by company)
• 51. Energy intensity relative to webscale average and select data center-focused CNNOs (by company)
• 52. Energy intensity in webscale sector, 2023: MWh consumed per $M in revenue
• 53. Capex/revenues (annualized): Company vs. Webscale average
• 54. Revenue per employee (US$000s) (annualized): Company vs. Webscale average
• 55. 2017 vs. 2023: company benchmark by KPI (Revenues, R&D, Net profit, Cash from operations, Capex, Free cash flow, Cash & short-term investments, Net PP&E, Total debt)
• 56. 2017 vs. 2023: company benchmark by key ratio (Capex/revenues; R&D/revenues; Net margin; FCF margin)
• 57. Top 8 WNO's share vs. Rest of the market: by KPI (Revenues, R&D, Net profit, Cash from operations, Capex, Free cash flow, Cash & short-term investments, Net PP&E, Total debt)
• 58. Top 8 WNOs benchmarking by Key ratio: Capex/revenues; R&D/revenues; Net margin; FCF margin)
• 59. Total WNO Market Revenues, by region: Latest CY; Latest Quarter; Annual trend (2011-23); Single quarter (3Q15-3Q24 )
• 60. WNO Market: Revenues, single-quarter (YoY % change)
• 61. Regional revenues by operator: Latest CY; Latest Quarter; Annual trend (2011-23); Single quarter (3Q15-3Q24)
• 62. Top 10 operators by region: Latest CY; Latest Quarter