超大规模市场追踪（2025年第四季）：2025年资本支出将超过5,000亿美元，成长65%

儘管出现了一些令人担忧的征兆，但大型科技公司对人工智慧的热情高涨，以及它们对持续竞争优势的追求，正在推动资本支出（CAPEX）的成长。

2025年第四季概览

本报告涵盖了一个规模空前庞大、瞬息万变且难以预测的市场。年销售额已突破3兆美元。资本支出首次突破5000亿美元，一年内成长65%。净利率达到15年来的最高水准。然而，自由现金流降至15年来的最低水准。过去六年以7%年均速度成长的员工人数，如今已降至零成长。本报告分析了这些数据背后的驱动因素、企业的成长与停滞，以及数据所揭示的市场未来走向。

销售额：在 Meta、Alphabet 和 CoreWeave 的推动下，销售额再次成长，年增 14%。

2025年第四季，超大规模资料中心公司的营收达到8,750亿美元，年增14.2%；按年计算，其营收将达到3.019兆美元（年增13.2%）。亚马逊、苹果、Alphabet、微软和Meta继续保持主要企业。 Meta的成长超过20%，这主要得益于其在人工智慧驱动的广告排名、定向和建议的改进。

资本支出：人工智慧竞争推动年度资本支出首次突破 5,000 亿美元。

2025年第四季年度资本支出达5,070亿美元，年增64.7%。资本密集度升至营收的16.8%。在我们的资料库中，超大规模企业的资本密集度首次超过了电信市场。技术相关（网路、IT和软体）资本支出为2,970亿美元（年增77.5%），占总数的近60%，主要集中在GPU伺服器及相关电力和冷却系统。剩余的2100亿美元“其他资本支出”用于土地和实体设施建设。排名前四名的超大规模资料中心业者（亚马逊、Alphabet、微软和Meta）在2025年第一季至第四季期间的资本支出总额中占比高达74.2%。在主要企业中，Oracle和Meta的网路和IT资本支出集中度最高，而苹果排名垫底，因为它将其大部分基础设施外包给了合作伙伴公司。

资本支出展望：2026-2028 年的三种情景

2025 年资本支出 (CAPEX) 略高于 5,000 亿美元。未来展望取决于三种潜在情境。高成长情境与目前主要科技公司的官方预测相符，预计 2026 年资本支出将超过 8,000 亿美元，并在接下来的两年内维持在 7,000 亿至 8,000 亿美元之间。 2027-2028 年略有下降的情境假设，超大规模资料中心业者研发的替代晶片将逐渐普及，英伟达 (NVIDIA) 在晶片部署领域的主导地位将开始下降，一些待定计划将被取消或合併，舆论反弹仍将持续，电力供应仍将是阻碍因素。

盈利：净利率达到历史新高，而自由现金流仍处于历史低点。

净利率与自由现金流（FCF）利润率之间的差距显着扩大。 2025年第四季，净利率达到创纪录的21.1%，创下自2011年资料库纪录以来的最高水准。同时，自由现金流利润率则维持在12.8%的历史低位，与2025年第三季的结果持平。自由现金流是透过经营活动产生的现金流量减去资本支出（CAPEX）计算得出的，通常被认为比净利润更可靠。这一差距反映了人工智慧竞争的残酷现实。由于自由现金流是透过经营活动产生的现金流减去资本支出计算得出的，大型超大规模资料中心业者面临着因巨额资本支出而耗尽流动性的风险。微软、Alphabet和Meta的净利润表现强劲，但它们在竞相建造更多GPU丛集的过程中也在消耗现金储备。亚马逊和甲骨文也处于类似的循环中，它们用流动性强的现金换取投资回报週期较长的硬性基础设施。

就业：由于超大规模超大规模资料中心业者暗示将进一步裁员，员工成长率较去年同期停滞在 0.0%。

2025年第四季，超大规模资料中心产业的整体成长率较去年同期持平，为0.0%，与2019年至2025年预计的7.1%的复合年增长率形成鲜明对比。 Meta和亚马逊都已宣布将在2026年第一季裁员，微软也已冻结多个部门的招募。由于亚马逊、阿里巴巴和京东等公司的物流、履约配送负责人数量庞大，因此超大规模资料中心产业的员工总数难以衡量。而当聚焦于更以科技为中心的超大规模超大规模资料中心业者时，员工总数的下降趋势则更为明显。

按地区分類的销售额：北美和南美主导，欧洲、中东和非洲地区成长迅速。

2025年，美洲地区占超大规模资料中心公司总营收的46.4%。自2011年以来，这一比例基本上保持稳定，但在过去三年中略有上升。以绝对值计算，美洲地区的年收入达到1.399兆美元，较2024年成长13.0%。亚太地区则位居第二，营收为9,740亿美元（成长11.6%），其次是欧洲，营收为5,500亿美元（成长15.8%），以及中东和非洲地区，营收为960亿美元（成长16.1%）。

目标公司：

• 共有25家公司被纳入研究范围：其中21家仍在运作并已公开数据。其余4家公司要么已停止营运（ChinaCache），要么为私人公司（Twitter），要么已被其他公司收购（Altaba和LinkedIn）。
• 21 家活跃公司包括阿里巴巴、Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、百度、Cognizant、CoreWeave、eBay、富士通、HPE、IBM、京东、快手、Meta（Facebook）、微软、Nebius、Oracle、SAP、腾讯、小米和 Yandex。
• 2025年第二季度，新增了三家公司：快手、Nebius和小米。 CoreWeave于2024年第四季加入。
• 交易厂商：AMD、Arista、Ciena、思科、HPE、Infinera、英特尔、Juniper、Nokia、NVIDIA、Wiwynn

目录

第一章报告要点

第二章展望

第三章分析

第四章 关键统计数据

第五章 公司分析

第六章：企业标竿管理

第七章 区域分析

第八章 原始数据

第九章：外汇

第十章 关于我们

Big tech's AI mania and the search for the elusive moat is driving capex higher, despite some alarming warning signs.

Snapshot view of 4Q25

The 4Q25 edition of MTN Consulting's Hyperscale Tracker covers a market that has never been bigger, faster-moving, or harder to read. Annualized revenues crossed $3 trillion. Capex cleared $500 billion for the first time, up 65% in a single year. Net profit margins hit a 15-year high. And yet free cash flow margins dropped to a 15-year low. Headcount growth, which ran at 7% per year over the prior six years, fell to zero. The full report analyzes what is driving each of these numbers, which companies are winning and losing, and what the data says about where this market goes next.

Why read this report

MTN Consulting has been tracking this market with quarterly deep dives since 4Q17, and our database begins in 4Q11. We have a long history of in-depth coverage of this market, and proprietary tools and consistent, comparable data across revenues, capex, R&D, profitability, employment, and balance sheet metrics for the world's leading hyperscalers (previously called "webscalers"). We cover Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Oracle, Alibaba, Tencent, and more than a dozen other players, including newer entrants like Coreweave, Nebius, Kuaishou, and Xiaomi. No other analyst firm covers this market with this depth or our data coverage.

We have been calling this market a bubble for over a year and a half, and that view is reflected throughout the analysis. The full 4Q25 report includes detailed company-by-company breakouts, regional data, vendor revenue benchmarks, and three capex outlook scenarios for 2026-2028 ranging from $420 billion to $810 billion. If you are making investment, procurement, or strategic decisions that depend on where hyperscale spending goes from here, this report is built for you.

Hyperscale's AI-driven infrastructure buildout keeps breaking records. In 4Q25, the companies in our Hyperscale Tracker generated $875 billion (B) in single-quarter revenue (+14.2% YoY), with annualized revenues reaching $3.019 trillion (+13.2% YoY). Annualized capex hit $507B (+64.7% YoY), R&D reached $384B (+20.2% YoY), and cash holdings stood at $745B (+13.6% YoY) against $679B in debt (+23.2% YoY). Net PP&E surged 47.5% YoY to $1.368 trillion. Headcount growth was essentially flat at 0.0% YoY.

Notes: (1) This is MTN Consulting's 33rd quarterly assessment of the hyperscale market, part of a series we launched in 4Q17; our data and analysis spans the 1Q11-4Q25 timeframe, i.e. 60 quarters. (2) The companies in our study include several recent additions: CoreWeave (added in 2024), and Kuaishou, Nebius (Yandex spinoff), and Xiaomi (added in 3Q25). (3) The 4Q25 edition adopts a new term for the sector, swapping "webscale" with the more common "hyperscale".

Revenue: Topline grows at 14% YoY rate again, led by Meta, Alphabet, and Coreweave

Hyperscale revenues reached $875B in 4Q25, up 14.2% YoY, with annualized revenues rising to $3.019T (+13.2% YoY). The largest players remain Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta. Meta continues to deliver above 20% growth, driven by AI-powered improvements in advertisement ranking, targeting, and recommendations.

The fastest growth came from Coreweave (+110% YoY), the crypto-turned-neocloud player. Nebius, the Yandex spinoff, recorded an even higher rate but remains an outlier with limited geographic reach. Among established companies, Meta (+24%), HPE (absorbing Juniper, +18%), and Alphabet (+18%) saw the strongest top-line results, with GCP acceleration, YouTube advertising, and Gemini enterprise seats all contributing at Alphabet. At the other end, revenue weakness was seen at Baidu (weak legacy ad business), JD.Com (weak Chinese economy and price competition), and Alibaba (tough ecommerce competition). Fujitsu declined as well.

Advertising remains central for several firms. Meta is the most exposed, with ads still driving nearly all revenue, despite efforts to diversify into hardware and AI platforms. Alphabet's non-ad share has risen above 25%. Amazon is approaching 10% of revenues from ads. Ad-dependent companies face heightened risk given concerns about US consumer spending in 2026, which have grown more pronounced following the energy market disruption created by the Trump administration's actions in Iran. A further open question is whether scaled AI platforms will rely heavily on ads, given slow traction for paid subscription models outside early adopters.

Capex: AI arms race drives annualized capex past $500 billion for the first time

Annualized capex reached $507B in 4Q25, up 64.7% YoY, with capital intensity rising to 16.8% of revenues. For the first time in our database, hyperscale capital intensity exceeded that of the telco market. Tech-related (Network, IT, and software) capex accounts for nearly 60% of the total at $297B (+77.5% YoY), focused heavily on GPU servers and related power and cooling systems. The remaining $210B in "other capex" covers land and physical facility construction. The top four hyperscalers (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta) accounted for 74.2% of all capex in the 1Q25-4Q25 period. Oracle and Meta lead in network and IT capex intensity among major players; Apple is at the bottom, having offloaded most infrastructure to partners.

R&D intensity settled at 12.7% of revenues in 4Q25. For years, R&D as a percentage of revenue tracked well above capex, reflecting a software-centric innovation model. That pattern has reversed: capex has surged to 17% of revenues while R&D has plateaued near 13%. The sector's focus has shifted from a code-first model to a hardware-first land grab. Meta leads in R&D intensity at 29% of revenues, followed by SAP and Oracle.

NVIDIA's data center revenues have scaled in close alignment with hyperscaler tech capex. Other vendors benefiting from the hyperscale buildout include AMD, Arista, Ciena, Cisco, Corning, and Wiwynn. Many of these are racing to expand capacity to meet the rising opportunity, but they also need to hedge against downside risk from a market collapse. Even without that, there will inevitably be a shift away from the market's current over-reliance on NVIDIA. As custom silicon and new chip options mature, a correction in the Network/IT capex line is possible, potentially freeing up capital for R&D or physical facility expansion.

Net PP&E per employee averaged $303K in 4Q25. The big AI model builders are outliers, with net PP&E per employee several times larger than the market average. Fujitsu, JD, SAP, and several others have moved away from infrastructure ownership and record less than $100K in net PP&E per employee. Coreweave and Nebius are at the opposite extreme. M&A spending remains far below capex levels. Traditional acquisitions are too slow a tool for the current arms race, with large deals taking a year or more to close. Capital is instead flowing into infrastructure capex, targeted IP purchases, and acquihires. The Meta-Scale AI transaction ($14B+ for a 49% stake) illustrates this trend, securing talent and data-labeling IP without the integration lag of a full buyout.

Hyperscale capex, negligible a decade ago, surpassed telco capex for the first time in 4Q24, and reached $500B in 2025. US deployments account for an outsized share, representing around 60% of global capex in recent years, though this ratio dipped slightly in 2025 and is likely to slip further as hyperscalers expand footprints in other regions. Chinese AI players' expansion abroad, including into belt-and-road markets, will support this transition. In the short term, GenAI-related spending remains heavily concentrated in the US.

Capex Outlook: Three scenarios for 2026-2028

Capex in 2025 ended at just over $500B. Three potential scenarios shape the outlook. The high case follows current official projections from key tech players, projecting capex above $800B in 2026, followed by two years in the $700-800B range. The slight decrease in 2027-28 assumes NVIDIA begins to lose its lock on chip deployments as captive alternatives developed by hyperscalers take hold, some pending projects are canceled or consolidated, public backlash against buildouts remains a factor, and power stays a constraint on expansion.

The base case projects capex of $550-600B for the next two years, followed by a downtick in 2028. The low case assumes a market correction begins in mid-2026, triggered by a mix of weak economic news from 1Q26 and, relatedly, soft financial results from the hyperscalers themselves. This scenario does not assume an economic depression, but does assume that Chinese companies continue to make breakthroughs at far lower levels of investment and without full access to the priciest chips, and that custom silicon produced by the hyperscalers themselves mature rapidly as an economic alternative to NVIDIA GPUs.

Profitability: Net margin hits record high while free cash flow margin stays at record low

The divergence between net margin and FCF margin has widened significantly. Net profitability reached a record 21.1% in 4Q25, the highest in our database going back to 2011. At the same time, FCF margin sits at 12.8%, the lowest on record, tied with the 3Q25 result. FCF is cash from operations minus capex and is generally a more reliable profit metric than net income. The gap reflects the brutal math of the AI arms race: because FCF is operating cash minus capex, the hyperscaler heavyweights risk cannibalizing their own liquidity with their immense capex spend. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are reporting good net income, but are eating into cash reserves as they race to build more GPU clusters. Amazon and Oracle remain in the same cycle, trading liquid cash for hard infrastructure with long payoff horizons.

On a per-employee basis, Apple and Meta are leaders in FCF, generating $740K and $585K per employee respectively over the last 12 months. Apple's high figures reflect its cautious stance on AI-related capex. In terms of FCF margins by company, Apple leads at 28% and Meta follows at 23%. At the other end, Oracle, Baidu, and Alibaba all recorded negative FCF margins, reflecting heavy build-ahead phases where massive capex for AI infrastructure is being recognized immediately while resulting revenue lags. Margin compression at Alibaba and Tencent reflects a different struggle: navigating a weakened Chinese economy and intense competition while ramping up AI spend.

Regulatory fines and civil lawsuits represent a persistent, though minor, risk to profitability. Hyperscalers consistently treat this as a cost of doing business, often ignoring rulings, aggressively fighting them in court, and using public relations to minimize backlash, moving far from the earlier "don't be evil" philosophy.

Employment: Headcount growth stalls at 0.0% YoY as hyperscalers signal further cuts

Headcount growth across the hyperscale sector was flat at 0.0% YoY in 4Q25, a sharp contrast to the 2019-25 CAGR of 7.1%. Meta and Amazon have both announced layoffs entering 1Q26, and Microsoft has frozen hiring in several groups. Total headcount is a tricky metric in hyperscale, as the sector's employee base is influenced heavily by logistics, fulfillment, and delivery employees at companies like Amazon, Alibaba, and JD.Com. Among the more tech-centric hyperscalers, the direction is clearly downward.

The hyperscale business model is built around massive economies of scale, with investment concentrated in areas where the marginal cost of production can approach zero. Many hyperscaler executives would be happy to see headcount fall significantly and rely on AI platforms to run more of their operations over time. That is clearly the industry's direction. Revenue per employee and net PP&E per employee have both made sizable gains in the last 2-3 years, and those trends are likely to continue.

Regional Revenues: Americas dominant, Europe and MEA growing faster

The Americas accounted for 46.4% of hyperscale revenues in 2025, a share that has held broadly stable since 2011 but edged up slightly over the last three years. In absolute terms, Americas revenues reached $1.399 trillion for the year, up 13.0% from 2024. Asia Pacific was the second largest region at $974 billion (+11.6%), followed by Europe at $550 billion (+15.8%) and MEA at $96 billion (+16.1%).

In 4Q25 specifically, Europe and MEA were the fastest-growing regions on a YoY basis, up 18.5% and 19.0% respectively, while Asia Pacific lagged slightly at 11.9%. The outperformance of Europe and MEA likely reflects continued international expansion by the major US-based hyperscalers, as well as a lower base. Asia Pacific's more modest growth reflects a mix of macro headwinds in China and the competitive pressures facing Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.Com noted elsewhere in this report.

Companies covered:

• 25 in total: 21 active and reporting data publicly, 4 either inactive (ChinaCache), gone private (Twitter), or now part of other companies (Altaba and LinkedIn).
• The 21 active companies include: Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Cognizant, CoreWeave, eBay, Fujitsu, HPE, IBM, JD.COM, Kuaishou, Meta (FB), Microsoft, Nebius, Oracle, SAP, Tencent, Xiaomi, and Yandex
• Three new companies have been added in 2Q25: Kuaishou, Nebius, and Xiaomi. CoreWeave was added in 4Q24.
• Vendors addressed: AMD, Arista , Ciena, Cisco, HPE, Infinera, Intel, Juniper, Nokia, NVIDIA, and Wiwynn

Table of Contents

1. Report highlights

2. Outlook

3. Analysis

4. Key Stats

5. Company Drilldown

6. Company Benchmarking

7. Regional Breakouts

8. Raw Data

9. Exchange Rates

10. About

List of Figures and Charts

• 1. Capex outlook by scenario ($B)
• 2. Key Metrics: Growth rates, Annualized 4Q25/4Q24 vs. 2021-25
• 3. Hyperscale Revenues: Single-quarter & annualized (US$M)
• 4. Key Hyperscaler revenues: YoY % revenue growth in 4Q25
• 5. Annualized profitability: HYPERSCALEs
• 6. Free cash flow per employee, 4Q25 annualized (US$)
• 7. Key Hyperscaler free cash flow margins: 4Q25 annualized
• 8. Advertising revenues as % total (FY2024)
• 9. Annualized capex and R&D spending: HYPERSCALEs (% revenues)
• 10. Hyperscale capex by type, Annualized: 4Q14-4Q25 (US$M)
• 11. Network & IT capex as share of revenues, 4Q25 annualized
• 12. Key Hyperscaler R&D expenses, % revenues: 4Q25 annualized
• 13. Acquisition spending vs. capex spending, annualized (US$M)
• 14. Net PP&E per employee (US$' 000) - 4Q25
• 15. Ranking the Hyperscale Network Operators: Revenues; R&D; Capex; Network & IT capex - 2025 & 4Q25 (US$B)
• 16. Annualized spending for key Hyperscalers since 2011 Capex: Network, IT and software
• 17. Share of Hyperscale spending by company, 4Q25 and 4Q24 annualized (Capex: Network, IT and software)
• 18. Energy consumption vs. Net PP&E for key Hyperscalers in 2024
• 19. Hyperscale vs. Telco Market: Annualized Capex (US$B)
• 20. Hyperscale vs. Telco Market: Annualized capital intensity
• 21. USA: Hyperscale capex total ($M) and % of global market, 2011-25
• 22. China's Hyperscalers versus the big 4: Capex in 2025 ($B)
• 23. Chinese Hyperscale capex on the rise again ($M)
• 24. Hyperscale tech capex vs. DC-related chip revenues (annualized $M)
• 25. Hyperscale tech capex vs. Data center-related systems revenues (annualized $M)
• 26. Revenues: annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 27. Profitability (Net Profit; Cash from operations; Free cash flow): annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 28. Spending (R&D; M&A; Capex; Network & IT capex; Lease): annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 29. Cash & Short-term Investments: annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 30. Debt (Total debt; Net debt): annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 31. Property, Plant & Equipment: annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 32. Key Ratios: Net margin; R&D/revenues; Capex/revenues; Network & IT capex/revenues; Free cash flow/revenues; Lease costs/revenues - annual and annualized (%)
• 33. Total employees
• 34. Revenue per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 35. FCF per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 36. Net PP&E per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 37. Revenues & Spending (US$M)
• 38. Revenues (US$M) & YoY revenue growth (%), single-quarter: by company
• 39. Revenues, annualized (US$M): by company
• 40. Annualized profitability margins: by company
• 41. Annualized capex and capital intensity: by company
• 42. Annualized capex and R&D spending as % of revenues: by company
• 43. Share of hyperscale network & IT capex, Annualized: by company
• 44. Total employees: by company
• 45. Annualized per-employee metrics (US$000s): by company
• 46. Net debt (debt minus cash & stock) (US$M): by company
• 47. Top 10 Hyperscale employers in 4Q25: Global market
• 48. Headcount changes in 4Q25 (YoY %): Global market
• 49. Net PP&E: USA vs. RoW (by company)
• 50. Net PP&E: total in $M and % global Hyperscale market (by company)
• 51. Energy consumption, MWh and % Hyperscale total (by company)
• 52. Share of Hyperscale energy consumption, net PP&E, and capex (by company)
• 53. Energy intensity relative to Hyperscale average and select data center-focused CNNOs (by company)
• 54. Energy intensity in Hyperscale sector, 2024: MWh consumed per $M in revenue
• 55. Capex/revenues (annualized): Company vs. Hyperscale average
• 56. Revenue per employee (US$000s) (annualized): Company vs. Hyperscale average
• 57. 2018 vs. 2025: company benchmark by KPI (Revenues, R&D, Net profit, Cash from operations, Capex, Free cash flow, Cash & short-term investments, Net PP&E, Total debt)
• 58. 2018 vs. 2025: company benchmark by key ratio (Capex/revenues; R&D/revenues; Net margin; FCF margin)
• 59. Top 8 Hyperscaler share vs. Rest of the market: by KPI (Revenues, R&D, Net profit, Cash from operations, Capex, Free cash flow, Cash & short-term investments, Net PP&E, Total debt)
• 60. Top 8 Hyperscalers benchmarking by Key (ratio: Capex/revenues; R&D/revenues; Net margin; FCF margin)
• 61. Total Hyperscaler Market Revenues, by region: Latest CY; Latest Quarter; Annual trend (2011-25); Single quarter (4Q16-4Q25 )
• 62. Hyperscaler Market: Revenues, single-quarter (YoY % change)
• 63. Regional revenues by operator: Latest CY; Latest Quarter; Annual trend (2011-25); Single quarter (4Q16-4Q25)
• 64. Top 10 operators by region: Latest CY; Latest Quarter