电动车 (EV) 区域预测 - 北美：美国和加拿大小型插电式电动车和 EVSE 的预测，按州、地区和大都会区划分（2023-2032 年）

2022 年和 2023 年北美插电式电动车 (PEV) 销量大幅成长。2023年前三季度，PEV销量超过2022年总量，2023年第三季美国PEV销量首度突破30万辆。目前，纯电动车在北美新车市场中占据着重要地位，随着该行业向更高水准的电气化迈进，电动车有望继续成长。

2022 年通货膨胀控制法案 (IRA) 将从 2023 年开始修订清洁车辆信用体系，这将增加 PEV 销量，特别是如果符合信用资格的本地电池生产和新原材料供应链上线的话。有待进一步加强。未来，汽车製造商预计会优先考虑新车，尤其是纯电动车（BEV）。对高利率和电池原物料成本波动的担忧导致汽车製造商重新评估生产目标，但随着销售持续成长，部分PEV车型已在2023年降价。

本报告分析了北美电动车（EV）领域的技术创新、激励政策、车辆供应能力等趋势，并按国家、州和地区预测了美国和加拿大纯电动车的渗透状况。它还研究了关键的市场驱动因素，包括电池组、技术创新、燃油价格、车型可用性和零排放汽车 (ZEV) 要求。它还包括按车辆类型（乘用车和轻型卡车）和动力系统（插电式混合动力电动车（PHEV）和纯电动车）划分的详细趋势。此外，我们还将按技术（1级（L1）、2级（L2）、直流快速充电等）和使用案例（车队、市场、多用途）来了解EVSE（电动车充电设备）的发展趋势。-单元住房（MUD），我们也预测了单户住宅（SUD）、SUD共享、工作场所等的详细趋势。

目录

第一章执行摘要

第二章 市场问题

• 介绍
• 市场促进/限制及最新情况
  • 电池组价格
  • 燃油价格
  • 汽车OEM PEV投资
  • 型号可用性
  • PEV政策环境
  • EVSE政策环境

第三章产业价值链

• 竞争格局
• 价值链图解
• 商业模式的演变
  • 国内生产
  • 供应链整合

第四章 预测方法

• VAST（车辆分析与模拟工具）模型概述
  • 长期市场占有率：动力总成之间的竞争
  • 促进基础设施/车辆部署
  • 预测汽车销售量并调整车型
  • 地域特色
• VAST充电器安装模组概述

第五章市场预测

• 介绍
• 美国
  • PEV预测
  • EVSE预测
  • 按州预测
  • 十大都会区
• 加拿大

第 6 章结论和建议

• 3大要点
• 推荐
  • 汽车製造商
  • 政府
  • EVSE公司/製造商

第 7 章 首字母缩写词和缩写列表

第8章 目录

第9章图表

第10章 研究范围、资讯来源/研究方法、註释

Sales of plug-in EVs (PEVs) in North America have seen significant increases in 2022 and 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, PEV sales exceeded the 2022 total and in the US, the third quarter of 2023 saw more than 300,000 PEVs sold for the first time in a quarter. PEVs are now a significant piece of the North American new vehicle market and poised to continue growing as the industry transitions to greater levels of electrification.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 revised the clean vehicle credit program starting in 2023, and will further strengthen PEV sales, especially as local battery production and new raw material supply chains, which are required to qualify for these credits, come online. Guidehouse Insights expects automakers to prioritize new models, and specifically battery EVs (BEVs). Despite automakers revising their production targets because of concerns about high interest rates and the volatility of battery raw material costs, several PEV models saw price cuts in 2023 as sales continued growing.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes EV technology innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the US and Canada on national, state/province, and sub-state/province levels. The forecasts are driven by battery pack and technology innovations, fuel prices, model availability, and zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandates. They include passenger car and light truck breakouts in addition to powertrain breakouts by plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and BEVs. Forecasts for deployment of EV Supply Equipment (EVSE) is also included. EVSE deployments are segmented by technology-Level 1 (L1), Level 2 (L2), and DC fast chargers-and use cases, including fleet, market, multiuse dwellings (MUD), single-use dwelling (SUD), SUD-shared, and workplace.

Table of Contents

. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Introduction
• 1.2 Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Market Drivers, Barriers, and Updates
  • 2.2.1 Battery Pack Prices
  • 2.2.2 Fuel Prices
  • 2.2.3 Automotive OEM PEV Investment
  • 2.2.4 Model Availability
  • 2.2.5 PEV Policy Environment
  • 2.2.6 EVSE Policy Environment

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
• 3.2 Pictorial Representation of the Value Chain
• 3.3 Business Model Evolution
  • 3.3.1 Onshoring Production
  • 3.3.2 Supply Chain Consolidation

4. Forecast Methodolgy

• 4.1 Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool Model Overview
  • 4.1.1 Long-Run Market Share: Competition between Powertrains
  • 4.1.2 Fueling Infrastructure and Vehicle Adoption
  • 4.1.3 Vehicle Sales Forecast and Model Calibration
  • 4.1.4 Geographic Specificity
• 4.2 The VAST Charger Siting Module Overview

5. Market Forecasts

• 5.1 Introduction
• 5.2 US
  • 5.2.1 PEV Forecasts
  • 5.2.2 EVSE Forecasts
  • 5.2.3 State Forecasts
  • 5.2.4 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas
• 5.3 Canada
  • 5.3.1 PEV Forecasts
  • 5.3.2 EVSE Forecasts
  • 5.3.3 Provincial Forecasts
  • 5.3.4 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 6.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 6.2 Recommendations
  • 6.2.1 Automakers
  • 6.2.2 Governments
  • 6.2.3 EVSE Companies and Manufacturers

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Tables

• LDV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Annual LDV Population by State, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD BEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Class, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Owner, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Owner, Canada: 2023-2032
• Top 50 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Sales, US: 2023-2032
• Top 10 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Powertrain, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Powertrain, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD BEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PHEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Class, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Class, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Owner, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Owner, Canada: 2023-2032
• Top 50 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Population, US: 2023-2032
• Top 10 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Population, Canada: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Technology, US: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Technology, Canada: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Owner, US: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Owner, Canada: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Use Case, US: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Use Case, Canada: 2023-2032
• Public Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Public L2 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Public DC Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Non-Fleet Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Non-Fleet L1 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Non-Fleet L2 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Fleet Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Fleet L2 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Fleet DC Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Top 50 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by Charge Points, US: 2023-2032
• Top 10 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by Charge Points, Canada: 2023-2032

EV Geographic Forecast Drivers and Assumptions, North America

Geographic Forecast Area Labels and Definitions

Sample of Recent and Upcoming BEVs with a Base MSRP under $50,000

List of Figures

• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and PEV Market Share, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population and Share of LDV Population, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Class, US: 2023-2032
• Charge Points Installed by Technology, US: 2023-2032
• Charge Points Installed by Use Case, US: 2023-2032

Top 10 States by LD PEV Sales, US: 2032

Top 10 States by Charge Points Installed, US: 2032

Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, US: 2032

Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by Charge Points Installed, US: 2032

• LD PEV Population and Share of LDV Population, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2023-2032
• Charge Points Installed by Technology, Canada: 2023-2032
• Charge Points Installed by Use Case, Canada: 2023-2032

Top 5 Provinces by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2032

Top 5 Provinces by Charge Points Installed, Canada: 2032

Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2032

Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by Charge Points Installed, Canada: 2032

Pictorial Representation of the PEV Industry Value Chain

VAST Systems Dynamics Innovation Diffusion Approach

Example of LDV Charging Port Allocation