电动车 (EV) 为生物燃料市场带来了激烈的竞争

几十年来，生物燃料一直致力于促进运输业的脱碳。然而，电气化最近引起了人们的关注，从电动车（EV）销量的快速成长就可以看出。儘管交通运输业的脱碳正处于十字路口，但多种因素正在加速和深化电动车的采用，包括政府激励措施、更低的价格和性能的提高。同时，生物燃料不断发展成为新的相容产品，不仅应用于公路运输，也应用于跨洋船舶和航空。

本报告探讨了全球生物燃料市场对电动车普及的影响，以及这些发展如何鼓励包括汽车製造商和生物燃料製造商在内的行业参与者改变其交通运输脱碳方法。我们还将考虑是否进行审查迫在眉睫。此外，我们将提供详细且可行的建议，帮助产业利害关係人应对此新现象。

目录

• 火花
• 情境
• 推荐
• 随着电动车销售加速，生物燃料成长放缓
  • 在政府政策的推动下，电动车逐渐普及。
  • 生物燃料正在稳步普及，但可能会开闢新的道路
• 电动车预计将取代液体燃料用于短程运输
  • 新电动车销量没有放缓迹象，中国仍处于领先地位
  • 生物燃料政策的改变可能会阻碍成长
  • 新产品和应用推动生物燃料需求成长
• 电动车和生质燃料需要有不同的路径
  • 政策制定者需要为净零排放提供明确的目标和激励措施
  • 生物燃料製造商需要为未来的机会制定路线图
  • 电池製造商是降低电动车价格的关键
  • 汽车製造商需要寻找未来的新机遇

Biofuels have been helping to decarbonize the transportation sector for decades. More recently, however, electrification has drawn increased attention and interest as evidenced by a spike in EV sales. Decarbonization in the transportation industry stands at a crossroads while many factors are driving faster and deeper adoption of EVs, including government incentives, lower prices, and improved performance. At the same time, biofuels continue to evolve to include new drop-in products that will target applications beyond road transport to also include transoceanic shipping and aviation.

This Guidehouse Insights report reviews how these market trends are forcing automakers, biofuels producers, and other industry stakeholders to readdress their approaches to decarbonizing transportation. It also provides detailed and actionable recommendations for industry participants to address this new phenomenon.

Table of Contents

Spark

Context

Recommendations

As EV Sales Accelerate, Biofuels Growth Is Coasting

Driven by Government Policies, EVs Have Hit the Pavement Hard

Biofuels Have Had Steady Road Traction but Could Chart a New Course

EVs Look to Overtake Liquid Fuels for Short-Distance Travel

New EV Sales Show No Signs of Slowing, with China Still in Pole Position

Changes to Biofuels Policies Could Present Roadblocks to Growth

New Products and Applications Will Steer the Growth of Biofuels Demand

EVs and Biofuels Should Move into Their Own Lanes

Policymakers Must Offer Clear Net-Zero Signposts and Incentives

Biofuel Producers Must Create a Roadmap for Future Opportunities

Battery Makers Are Key to Driving Down EV Prices

Automakers Should Look Down the Road to New Opportunities

List of Figures

• Annual New EV Sales, World Markets: 2016-2023
• Biofuels Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Battery EV Market Share of All LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2035
• Biofuel Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032