全球自动化大众运输市场－自动化运输巴士和接驳巴士，市场预测（2024-2033）

几十年来，车辆自动化一直是开发人员的白鲸。 完全无人驾驶的轻型车辆（LDV）现在在某些城市和市场变得流行。 然而，这项技术尚未被利用的一个领域是交通领域。 自动化公共交通提供了 LDV 自动化的许多好处，还有更多。 由于运输车辆的运行设计区域有限，因此很少有例外情况。 此外，交通车辆通常在较慢的路线上行驶，这可以减少碰撞时的损坏。 此外，自动化有可能解决 COVID-19 大流行后交通机构目前面临的许多人员配备问题，使司机能够接受进一步培训，专注于乘客的乘坐体验。

自动驾驶公共交通仍处于发展的早期阶段，预计 2024 年将售出 300 多辆自动驾驶汽车。 然而，到 2033 年，这一数字预计将增加到 11,500 多个。 自动公共交通仍然只占整个交通车辆市场的一小部分，但预计在未来十年将显着成长。

本报告审视了全球自动公共交通市场，提供销售和收入预测、采用驱动因素和障碍的详细资讯以及行业价值链分析。

目录

第 1 章执行摘要

• 市场概览
• 范围
• 市场预测

第二章市场问题

• 促进因素
  • 劳动力减少
  • 安全
  • 降低成本
  • 操作空间有限
  • 辅助功能
• 屏障
  • 规则
  • 费用
  • 社会认可
  • 运输惯性
• 定价
• 其他业务问题

第三章产业价值链

• 竞争状况
  • 商业模式的演变

第四章市场预测

• 预测方法
• 市场预测
  • 世界客车市场
  • 世界交通巴士市场
  • 世界穿梭巴士市场
  • 自动交通巴士销售
  • 自动公车收入
  • 自动穿梭巴士销售
  • 自动穿梭巴士收入
• 预测自动穿梭巴士用例
  • 交通自动接驳巴士
  • 自动穿梭巴士作为人们的交通工具
  • 辅助交通的自动穿梭巴士

第 5 章结论/建议

• 三大要点
• 推荐
  • 运输业者
  • 客车 OEM
  • 车辆自动化开发人员
  • 房屋开发商

第 6 章首字母缩写词和缩写词列表

第 7 章目录

第 8 章图表

第九章研究范围、资讯来源与研究方法、註

Vehicle automation has been the white whale of developers for decades. Now, fully driverless light duty vehicles (LDVs) are beginning to proliferate in certain cities and markets. Where this technology has not been utilized, however, is in the transit space. Automated public transit offers many of the benefits of LDV automation and offers a few more. The limited operational design domain of transit vehicles means fewer exceptions to interrupt the vehicle. Transit vehicles also typically follow lower speed routes, reducing harm in the event of a crash. In addition, automation can potentially solve many of the staffing issues transit agencies currently face in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing drivers to be trained more to focus on passengers' riding experience.

Automated public transit is still in the nascent stages of market development, with just over 300 hands-off, eyes-off, brain-off automated transit vehicles expected to be sold in 2024. However, that number is expected to grow to over 11,500 vehicles sold in 2033. While automated public transit is still a small segment of the overall transit vehicles market, it is expected to see significant growth over the next decade.

This Guidehouse Insights report provides automated public transit market forecasts, a deep dive into the drivers and barriers to adoption, and an industry value chain analysis. It provides sales and revenue forecasts for transit automation segmented into the two main vehicle sizes for the 10-year period from 2024-2033. These forecasts are further segmented by region and use case.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Market Overview
• 1.2 Scope
• 1.3 Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Drivers
  • 2.1.1 Workforce Reductions
  • 2.1.2 Safety
  • 2.1.3 Cost Savings
  • 2.1.4 Limited Operating Spaces
  • 2.1.5 Accessibility
• 2.2 Barriers
  • 2.2.1 Regulations
  • 2.2.2 Cost
  • 2.2.3 Public Perception
  • 2.2.4 Transit Agency Inertia
• 2.3 Pricing
• 2.4 Other Business Issues

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.1.1 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 Forecast Methodology
• 4.2 Market Forecasts
  • 4.2.1 Global Bus Market
  • 4.2.2 Global Transit Bus Market
  • 4.2.3 Global Shuttle Bus Market
  • 4.2.4 Automated Transit Bus Sales
  • 4.2.5 Automated Transit Bus Revenue
  • 4.2.6 Automated Shuttle Bus Sales
  • 4.2.7 Automated Shuttle Bus Revenue
• 4.3 Automated Shuttle Bus Use Case Forecasts
  • 4.3.1 Automated Shuttle Buses for Transit
  • 4.3.2 Automated Shuttle Buses as People Movers
  • 4.3.3 Automated Shuttle Buses for Paratransit

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Transit Operators
  • 5.2.2 Bus OEMs
  • 5.2.3 Vehicle Automation Developers
  • 5.2.4 Housing Developers

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Tables

• Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Transit Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Transit Bus Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Bus Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses for Transit, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses as People Movers, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses for Paratransit, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033

List of Figures

• Automated Transit Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Transit Bus Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Bus Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses for Transit, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses as People Movers, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
• Automated Shuttle Buses for Paratransit, Sales by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033

Pictorial Representation of the Industry Value Chain