氢内燃机和中重型卡车市场

到2034年，配备氢内燃机传动系统的全球重型卡车市场预计将达到41,081辆。该细分市场预计在10年预测期内年复合成长率为44.5%，包括公路运输（OTR）、配送以及收集和交付（配送/C&D）、重型和职业领域。

中型重型（MHD）卡车产业脱碳的努力导致众多传动系统选项的开发，以取代传统的柴油内燃机（D-ICE）。虽然纯电动车（BEV）一直是市场兴趣和 OEM 研发预算的主要焦点，但支持者也提倡将氢作为脱碳的一种手段。氢作为一种减排途径主要以燃料电池汽车（FCV）为前提，但人们对在用于MHD 的内燃机汽车中使用氢的兴趣日益浓厚，这鼓励了商用车价值链中的所有利益相关者，这对托运人、监管机构的潜在影响和投资者。

本报告研究了2025年至2034年预测期间的全球氢内燃机和中重型卡车市场。发布整体市场预测、基于数量和收入的细分市场预测、以及依车辆尺寸（中型/大型）和业务（长途、配送、高要求工作、职业）细分的销售预测。

目次

第1章 执行摘要

第2章 市场问题

• 简介
• 促进要因
• 抑制要因
• 价格

第3章 产业价值链

• 竞合情势
  • 併购活动
  • 商业模式的演变

第4章 市场预测

• 范围
• 调查方法
• 限制
• 主要假设
• 预测

第5章 结论/建议

第6章 首字母缩写词和缩写词列表

第7章 目次

第8章 图表

第9章 研究范围、资讯来源与研究方法、註

The drive to decarbonize the medium and heavy duty (MHD) truck industry has led to the development of numerous driveline options to replace conventional diesel internal combustion engines (D-ICE). While the greatest focus in both market interest and OEM R&D budgets has been on battery electric vehicles (BEVs), advocates have also promoted hydrogen as a means of decarbonization. While hydrogen as an emissions reduction pathway has been mainly predicated on fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), the increasing interest in using hydrogen to power adapted ICE engines for MHDs could have an effect on all stakeholders in the commercial vehicle value chain, shippers, regulators, and investors.

This report looks at the global market for hydrogen-ICE (H2-ICE) MHD trucks during the forecast period 2025-2034. It provides forecasts for the overall market, segmented by units and revenue, and unit sales forecasts segmented by vehicle size (medium duty and heavy duty) and task (long-haul, distribution, harsh duty, and vocational).

Guidehouse Insights projects that the global market for heavy duty trucks powered by H2-ICE drivelines will reach 41,081 units by 2034. This segment, which is expected to experience a 44.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the ten-year forecast period, includes the over-the-road (OTR), distribution and collection and delivery (distribution/C&D), harsh duty, and vocational segments.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Drivers
  • 2.2.1 Regional Regulation
    • 2.2.1.1 North America
    • 2.2.1.2 Europe
    • 2.2.1.3 Asia Pacific
    • 2.2.1.4 Latin America and Mercosur
  • 2.2.2 Local Regulation
  • 2.2.3 Incentivizes
  • 2.2.4 Aftermarket Revenue
  • 2.2.5 Sustainability and Environmental, Social, and Governance Considerations
  • 2.2.6 Regulatory and Residual Value Future Proofing
  • 2.2.7 Technical Familiarity
  • 2.2.8 Vehicle Weight and Range
• 2.3 Barriers
  • 2.3.1 Infrastructure
  • 2.3.2 Vehicle Packaging
  • 2.3.3 Cost and Total Cost of Ownership Considerations
  • 2.3.4 Driver Acceptance
  • 2.3.5 Repair and Maintenance Provision and Access
  • 2.3.6 Funding Access and Residual Value Concerns
• 2.4 Pricing

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.1.1 Merger & Acquisition Activities
  • 3.1.2 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 Scope
• 4.2 Methodology
• 4.3 Limitations
• 4.4 Key Assumptions
• 4.5 Forecasts
  • 4.5.1 Heavy Duty H2-ICE
  • 4.5.2 Medium Duty H2-ICE
  • 4.5.3 OTR MHD H2-ICE Trucks
  • 4.5.4 Distribution/C&D MHD H2-ICE Truck Sales
  • 4.5.5 Harsh Duty MHD H2-ICE Trucks
  • 4.5.6 Vocational MHD H2-ICE

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Regulators
  • 5.2.2 OEMs
  • 5.2.3 Fleets
• 5.3 Conclusion

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes