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船舶·航空部门永续燃料- 需求与供给预测
市场调查报告书
商品编码
1817388

船舶·航空部门永续燃料- 需求与供给预测

Sustainable Fuels for Marine and Aviation Sectors - Demand and Supply Outlook: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts, 2025-2035
出版日期: | 出版商: Guidehouse Research | 英文 57 Pages | 订单完成后即时交付

价格

永续航空燃料 (SAF) 和船用燃料 (SMF) 市场由先进燃料技术、不断发展的监管框架以及航空和海事领域不断变化的需求动态共同构成。虽然 SAF 和 SMF 尚处于商业部署的早期阶段，但它们日益被视为长途运输脱碳的关键推动因素。在运量成长、基础设施投资和生命週期排放标准的推动下，这些燃料预计将在难以脱碳的运输产业的能源转型中发挥核心作用。

本报告概述了 SAF 和 SMF 市场的市场推动因素和障碍，为利益相关者提供建议，并按地区和路径对 2025 年至 2035 年全球可持续燃料的供需进行了预测。报告分析了推动 SAF 和 SMF 发展的关键技术路径。 SAF 专注于四种具有高度商业和战略意义的转化技术：氢化酯和脂肪酸、醇製航油、电力製液体燃料以及费托合成石蜡煤油。 SMF 的分析涵盖再生甲醇、再生甲烷、绿氨和生质燃料（包括 FAME 和 HVO）。

目录

第1章 摘要整理

  • 简介
    • 范围
    • 市场促进因素
    • 市场阻碍因素
  • 全球市场预测

第2章 市场问题

  • 技术概要
    • SAF 途径
    • SAF 原料评估
    • SMF 途径
  • 促进因素
    • SAF的促进因素
    • SMF的促进因素
  • 阻碍因素
    • SAF的阻碍因素
    • SMF的阻碍因素

第3章 产业价值链

  • 竞争情形
    • SAF
    • SMF

第4章 市场预测

  • SAF
  • SMF

第5章 结论·建议

  • 3大要点
  • 推荐事项
    • 政策制定者和监管机构
    • 燃料生产商和技术开发商
    • 最终用户

第6章 缩写与简称一览

第7章 目录

第8章 图表

第9章 调查范围，资讯来源，调查手法及註解

Product Code: MF-SFMA-25

The sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and sustainable marine fuels (SMF) markets are defined by the convergence of advanced fuel technologies, evolving regulatory frameworks, and shifting demand dynamics across aviation and shipping sectors. Although SAF and SMF are in the early stages of commercial deployment, both are increasingly recognized as critical enablers of long-distance transport decarbonization. Supported by growing offtake commitments, infrastructure investments, and lifecycle emissions standards, these fuels are positioned to play a central role in the energy transition for hard-to-abate transport sectors.

This Guidehouse Research report provides an overview of the drivers and barriers for the SAF and SMF market, offers recommendations for stakeholders, and projects global supply and demand for the sustainable fuels market by region and pathways from 2025 through 2035. It analyzes key technology pathways driving the development of SAF and SMF. SAF focuses on four commercially and strategically relevant conversion technologies: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, alcohol-to-jet, power-to-liquid, and Fischer-Tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene. The SMF analysis covers renewable methanol, renewable methane, green ammonia, and biofuels (including FAME and HVO).

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Introduction
    • 1.1.1 Scope
    • 1.1.2 Market Drivers
    • 1.1.3 Market Barriers
  • 1.2 Global Market Outlook

2. Market Issues

  • 2.1 Technology Overview
    • 2.1.1 SAF Pathways
      • 2.1.1.1 HEFA
      • 2.1.1.2 AtJ
      • 2.1.1.3 FT-SPK
      • 2.1.1.4 PtL
      • 2.1.1.5 Other Technologies
    • 2.1.2 SAF Feedstock Assessment
    • 2.1.3 SMF Pathways
      • 2.1.3.1 Renewable Methanol
      • 2.1.3.2 Renewable Methane
      • 2.1.3.3 HVO
      • 2.1.3.4 FAME
      • 2.1.3.5 Green Ammonia
      • 2.1.3.6 Other Technologies
  • 2.2 Drivers
    • 2.2.1 SAF Drivers
      • 2.2.1.1 Airline and Corporate Demand for SAF as a Decarbonization Lever
      • 2.2.1.2 Supply Chain Innovation and Feedstock Diversification
      • 2.2.1.3 Policy Incentives and Global Initiatives
      • 2.2.1.3.1 North America
      • 2.2.1.3.2 Europe
      • 2.2.1.3.3 Asia-Pacific
      • 2.2.1.3.4 Latin America
      • 2.2.1.3.5 Middle East & Africa
    • 2.2.2 SMF Drivers
      • 2.2.2.1 ESG Integration and Climate-Aligned Finance
      • 2.2.2.2 Life Cycle Emissions Reduction and Infrastructure Compatibility
      • 2.2.2.3 Supply Chain Decarbonization and Shipper Demand
      • 2.2.2.4 Port-Led Ecosystem Development
      • 2.2.2.5 Technology Maturity and Operational Flexibility
      • 2.2.2.6 Policy Incentives and Global Initiatives
      • 2.2.2.6.1 North America
      • 2.2.2.6.2 Europe
      • 2.2.2.6.3 Asia-Pacific
      • 2.2.2.6.4 Latin America
      • 2.2.2.6.5 Middle East & Africa
  • 2.3 Barriers
    • 2.3.1 SAF Barriers
      • 2.3.1.1 Economic Viability and Feedstock Constraints
      • 2.3.1.2 Demand Uncertainty and Financing Barriers
      • 2.3.1.3 Infrastructure and Logistics Limitations
      • 2.3.1.4 Technology Maturity and Scale-Up Risk
      • 2.3.1.5 Market Fragmentation and Lack of Standards
    • 2.3.2 SMF Barriers
      • 2.3.2.1 Cost Premiums and Infrastructure Deficits
      • 2.3.2.2 Regulatory Fragmentation and Uncertainty
      • 2.3.2.3 Limited Fuel Supply and Cross-Sector Competition
      • 2.3.2.4 Technology Maturity and Safety Risks
      • 2.3.2.5 Investment Risk and Fleet Transition Hesitancy
      • 2.3.2.6 Capacity and Equity Challenges in Developing Regions

3. Industry Value Chain

  • 3.1 Competitive Landscape
    • 3.1.1 SAF
      • 3.1.1.1 Offtake Agreements for SAF
    • 3.1.2 SMF

4. Market Forecasts

  • 4.1 SAF
    • 4.1.1 Scope
    • 4.1.2 Methodology
    • 4.1.3 Supply Capacity
      • 4.1.3.1 Baseline Scenario
      • 4.1.3.2 Conservative Scenario
      • 4.1.3.3 Aggressive Scenario
    • 4.1.4 Demand
  • 4.2 SMF
    • 4.2.1 Scope
    • 4.2.2 Methodology
    • 4.2.3 Supply Capacity
      • 4.2.3.1 Baseline Scenario
      • 4.2.3.2 Conservative Scenario
      • 4.2.3.3 Aggressive Scenario
    • 4.2.4 Demand

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

  • 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
  • 5.2 Recommendations
    • 5.2.1 Policymakers and Regulators
    • 5.2.2 Fuel Producers and Technology Developers
    • 5.2.3 End Users

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources, Methodology & Notes

List of Tables

  • Table 2-1. Comparative Overview of SAF Production Pathways
  • Table 2-2. Feedstock Risk Profiling and Regulatory Review for SAF Production
  • Table 2-3. Comparative Overview of SMF Production Pathways

List of Figures

  • Chart 1-1. SAF and SMF Supply Capacity and Demand by Category (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-1. SAF Supply Capacity by Region (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-2. SAF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-3. SAF Supply Capacity by Region (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-4. SAF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-5. SAF Supply Capacity by Region (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-6. SAF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-7. SAF Demand by Scenario, World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-8. SMF Supply Capacity by Region (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-9. SMF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-10. SMF Supply Capacity by Region (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-11. SMF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-12. SMF Supply Capacity by Region (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-13. SMF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Chart 4-14. SMF Demand by Scenario, World Markets: 2025-2035
  • Figure 3-1. SAF and SMF Value Chain