美国的食品市场预测(2025年):通货膨胀，关税，减重药的崛起等

"美国食品展望 2025" 报告深入分析了消费者趋势以及消费者行为和动机。该报告着眼于食品和饮料行业数十年的发展机遇，并提供了预测和建议，以指导零售商、批发商、服务提供者、食品加工商、包装商和投资者做出与食品市场相关的商业决策。报告探讨了通货膨胀、关税、减肥药兴起等问题。

关键主题领域包括：

GLP-1 药物的使用日益增多，推动了人们对更有益的食品的需求，包括瘦肉蛋白、营养丰富的食品和有益肠道健康的食品。

"让美国再次健康" （MAHA）运动的影响在呼吁减少人工色素和某些防腐剂的使用方面尤为明显。

在食品价格居高不下的时期，追求价值的消费者正转向基本类别以外的自有品牌选择。

机会不仅存在于 "全蛋白" 食品中，也存在于添加纤维和减少糖分的 "更健康" 食品领域。

目录

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 最近的历史的趋势

• 物价上涨：从供应链紧缩到通货膨胀
• 许多消费者担心通货膨胀和食品价格上涨
• 关税将进一步推高美国食品和饮料价格
• 物价上涨将影响消费者行为
• 减少家庭开支
• 随着价格上涨，自有品牌更具吸引力
• 大多数消费者註意到食品价格上涨，许多人正在改变他们的购买决策
• 2024 年，消费者在食品购买决策中将更重视价格
• 压力水平及其对食品和饮料消费的影响
• 零食趋势
• 零食食用频率
• 零食人口统计
• 吃零食的原因
• 餐点“零食化”
• 减肥
• 减肥药
• 家庭烹饪仍然相对较高

第3章 概要

• 食品零售销售额预测
• 流通趋势
• 电子商务

第4章 麦片谷类

• 销售额预测
• 市场规模停留在130亿美元强2029年
• 类别销售额
• 重要的机会
• 感觉的喜悦
• 零食
• 舒适村落眷恋之情
• 更健康
• 贴心的享受
• 负责任的新产品开发

第5章 巧克力糖果

• 销售展望
• 市场规模2029年市场规模将超过350亿美元
• 细分市场销售额
• 关键机遇
• 感官享受
• 网红灵感
• 舒适与怀旧
• 贴心的享受
• 负责任的新产品开发
• 植物性巧克力
• 添加CBD

第6章 甜饼干

• 销售额预测
• 2029年市场规模约190亿美元
• 关键机遇
• 感官享受
• 文化美食
• 贴心的享受
• 舒适与怀旧
• 负责任的新产品开发D

第7章 烧(烤)的麵包

• 销售额预测
• 超过2029年市场规模达220亿美元
• 细分市场销售额
• 关键机遇
• 感官享受
• 更健康
• 精心製作
• 舒适与怀旧
• 负责任的新产品开发
• 文化美食

第8章 新鲜的包装沙拉

• 销售额预测
• 新鲜的包装沙拉的销售额2029年增加到80亿美元以上的话预期
• 细分市场销售额
• 消费者洞察
• 包装沙拉消费量下降
• 大多数食用袋装沙拉的人越来越少
• 关键机遇
• CEA-室内农业
• 餐厅/厨师品质，在家即可享用
• 便利性
• 注重口味
• 负责任新产品开发
• 文化美食

第9章 冷冻正餐/正餐主菜

• 销售额预测
• 市场规模2029年附近扩大160亿美元
• 类别销售额
• 关键机遇
• 餐厅/厨师品质，在家即可享用
• 植物基
• 文化烹饪
• 便利的备餐方式
• 更健康
• 感官享受
• 舒适与怀旧

第10章 冷冻披萨

• 销售额预测
• 市场规模2029年迫近于90亿美元
• 消费者洞察
• 只有一半美国家庭食用冷冻披萨
• 食用冷冻披萨的人较少频繁
• 关键机遇
• 餐厅/厨师品质，在家即可享用
• 极致放纵
• 感官享受
• 舒适与怀旧
• 更健康
• 负责任的新产品开发

第11章 与ICE奶油冷冻食品

• 销售额预测
• 市场规模2029年190亿美元以上扩大
• 品类及细分市场销售额
• 冷冻食品将持续超越冰淇淋
• 消费者洞察
• 普通（全脂）冰淇淋广受欢迎
• 冰淇淋/义式冰淇淋/雪芭消费减少
• 关键机遇
• 感官享受
• 舒适与怀旧
• 贴心的享受
• 文化美食
• 负责任的新产品开发

第12章 餐点&点心棒

• 销售额预测
• 2029年市场规模接近100亿美元
• 品类销售额
• 消费者洞察
• 消费量最高的零食棒群不断扩大
• 主要品牌差异
• 关键机遇
• 享受
• 更健康
• 感官享受
• 文化美食
• 儿童
• 负责任的新产品开发

第13章 肉类和鸡肉

• 销售展望
• 2029年市场规模接近1,580亿美元
• 品类及细分市场销售额
• 肉类持续引领销售成长
• 消费者洞察
• 鸡肉比肉类更受欢迎，但两者之间的差距正在缩小
• 消费者绝大多数喜欢新鲜食品而非冷冻食品
• 香肠的销售量优于其他加工肉类
• 关键机遇
• 文化美食
• 便利的膳食准备
• 餐厅/厨师品质的居家烹饪
• 感官享受
• 植物性替代品
• 混合食品
• 培养肉麵临的挑战
• 其他选择
• 负责任的新产品开发

第14章 天然奶酪和特别起士

• 销售展望
• 2029年市场规模接近260亿美元
• 品类销售额
• 关键机遇
• 感官盛宴
• 贴心的享受
• 替代品
• 餐厅/起司店品质
• 零食

第15章 咸味零食

• 收入展望
• 预计2029年市场规模将超过470亿美元
• 细分市场收入
• 非洋芋片咸味零食推动成长
• 消费者洞察
• 薯片仍是首选，但消费量正在下降
• 薯片爱好者的食量减少
• 关键机遇
• 感官盛宴
• 文化美食
• 贴心的享受
• 舒适与怀旧
• 负责任的新产品开发
• 儿童

第16章 汤品

• 销售展望
• 预计到2029年，市场规模将超过100亿美元
• 关键机遇
• 更健康
• 文化美食
• 舒适与怀旧
• 感官享受
• 网红灵感

第17章 优格

• 销售额预测
• 2029年市场规模迫近于150亿美元
• 品类销售额
• 消费者洞察
• 疫情后优格消费相对稳定
• 普通（全脂）优格依然受青睐
• 原味优格和风味优格的消费成长，水果优格的消费下降
• 2024年，大胃王族群将迎来最大成长
• 关键机遇
• 健康
• 无乳製品和植物性替代品
• 增加儿童消费
• 感官享受
• 网红灵感
• 零食

U.S. Food Market Outlook 2025 provides insight into consumer trends as well as their behaviors and motivations. This report focuses on growth opportunities with analysis from decades of food and beverage perspective. Provided are both predictions and recommendations that are designed to guide retailers, wholesalers, service providers as well as food processors, packaging firms and investors in making decisions for their business about the food market. The report discusses inflation, tariffs, the rise of weight loss medications and more.

Key topic areas include:

Increasing GLP-1 drug use is boosting demand for better-for-you food options, including lean proteins, nutrient-dense foods, and gut-healthy options.

The MAHA - Make America Healthy Again - movement's impacts will be seen particularly in calls to reduce artificial colors and certain preservative classes.

Consumers seeking value in an era of still high food prices are turning to private label options, even outside basic categories.

Moving beyond "protein in everything", opportunities exist in the better-for-you segment by adding fiber and reducing sugar.

Table of Content

CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• FOOD TRENDS
• Figure 1-1. Food Market Trends
• SCOPE
• METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 2: RECENT HISTORICAL TRENDS

• RISING PRICES: FROM SUPPLY CHAIN CRUNCHES TO INFLATION
• Many Consumers Are Concerned about Inflation and Rising Food Prices
• Table 2-1. Month-to-month changes in consumer price index (CPI) for all food items, 2022 - 2025 (percent change)
• Table 2-2. Consumer Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2021 - 2024 (percent of consumers)
• Tariffs to Further Inflate US Food and Beverage Prices
• Rising Prices Impact Consumer Behavior
• Cutting Back on Household Expenses
• Table 2-3. Consumer Spending on "Extras", 2023 - 2024 (percent of consumers)
• Private Labels Are More Desirable as Prices Rise
• Table 2-4. Selected Private Label Department Dollar Sales Growth, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 (percent change)
• Table 2-5. Consumption Rates in last 6 months for Selected Store Brand Foods, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat selected product)
• The Vast Majority of Consumers Have Noticed the Rising Cost of Food, and Many Are Changing Their Purchasing Decisions
• Figure 2-1. Noticing the Rising Cost of Food and Beverages over the Past Year, 2024
• Figure 2-2. Impact of Rising Costs on Food/Beverage Purchasing, 2024
• Consumers Find Price More Important for Food Purchase Decisions in 2024
• Figure 2-3. Purchase Drivers for Food and Beverage Purchase Decisions, 2024
• Figure 2-4. Purchase Drivers for Food and Beverage Purchase Decisions by Household Income Bracket, 2024
• STRESS LEVELS AND IMPACT ON FOOD/BEVERAGE CONSUMPTION
• Figure 2-5. Stress Levels in the Last Six Months and Impact on Healthfulness of Food/Beverage Consumption, 2024
• Figure 2-6. Sources of Stress for Consumers Who Were Very or Somewhat Stressed in the Last Six Months, 2024
• Figure 2-7. Top Sources of Stress in the Last Six Months by Generation, 2024
• Figure 2-8. Happiness, Stress, and Health Status by Household Income Bracket, 2024
• Figure 2-9. Impact of Food Consumption on Mental or Emotional Well-Being, 2024
• SNACKING TRENDS
• Frequency of Snacking
• Table 2-6. Frequency of Snacking Habits on a Typical Weekday, 2024, 2025 (percent of consumers)
• Figure 2-10. Frequency of Snacking and Approaches Toward Snack/Portion Size, 2024
• Snacking Demographics
• Table 2-7. Always or Usually Eating Breakfast or Snacking More Than Once a Day by Demographic, 2024 (percent of consumers)
• Reasons for Snacking
• Table 2-8. Reasons for Snacking, 2024 & 2025 (percent of consumers)
• Figure 2-11. Top Motivations for Snacking, 2024
• Figure 2-12. Evening and Late Nigh Snack Choices, 2024
• "Snackification" of Meals
• Figure 2-13. Replacing Traditional Meals by Snacking or Eating Smaller Meals, 2024
• WEIGHT LOSS
• Figure 2-14. Motivations for Following Specific Eating Patterns or Diets in the Past Year, 2024
• Weight-loss Drugs
• Figure 2-15. Use of and Feelings Regarding GLP-1 or Other Weight Loss Drugs, 2025
• HOME COOKING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
• Table 2-9. Home Cooking Behaviors, Agree Completely, 2014 - 2024 (% of US adults)
• Table 2-10. Food Prepared From Scratch In Last 6 Months, 2014 - 2024 (% of households that make food from scratch)

CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW

• FOOD RETAIL SALES FORECAST
• Table 3-1. US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2024 - 2029P (million dollars and percent change)
• Table 3-2. US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019 - 2024 (billion dollars and percent change)
• Table 3-3. US Retail Dollar and Volume Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019 - 2024 (percent annual change)
• Table 3-4. Annual Price Changes by Top Food Categories, 2020 - 2024 (percent change)
• DISTRIBUTION TRENDS
• E-Commerce
• Table 3-5. Purchased Groceries Over Internet in Last 30 days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US adults)

CHAPTER 4: CEREAL

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market to Remain Slightly Over $13 Billion in 2029
• Table 4-1. US Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• Category Sales
• Table 4-2. US Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Snacking
• Comfort and nostalgia
• Healthier-for-you
• Mindful indulgence
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 5: CHOCOLATE CANDY

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Increases to Over $35 Billion in 2029
• Table 5-1. US Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• Segment Sales
• Table 5-2. US Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Influencer Inspired
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Mindful Indulgence
• Responsible NPD
• Plant-Based Chocolate
• CBD Infused

CHAPTER 6: COOKIES

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market to Nearly $19 Billion in 2029
• Table 6-1. US Cookies Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Cultural Cuisine
• Mindful Indulgence
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 7: FRESH BREAD

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Over $22 Billion in 2029
• Table 7-1. US Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• Segment Sales
• Table 7-2. US Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Healthier-for-you
• Specially Crafted
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Responsible NPD
• Cultural Cuisine

CHAPTER 8: FRESH PACKAGED SALADS

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Fresh Packaged Salad Sales Increasing to Over $8 Billion in 2029
• Table 8-1. US Fresh Packaged Salads Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
• Segment Sales
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Packaged Salad Consumption Declines
• Table 8-2. Consumption Rates for Packaged Fresh Salad and Fresh Produce, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households)
• Most Packaged Salad Eaters Don't Consume That Often
• Table 8-3. Packages of Packaged Fresh Salad Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat packaged fresh salad)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• CEA-Indoor Farming
• Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
• Convenience
• Flavor-forward
• Responsible NPD
• Cultural Cuisine

CHAPTER 9: FROZEN DINNERS/ENTREES

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Increasing to Nearly $16 Billion in 2029
• Table 9-1. US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• Category Sales
• Table 9-2. US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Segment, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
• Plant-Based
• Cultural Cuisine
• Convenient Meal Prep
• Healthier-for-you
• Sensory Delight
• Comfort & Nostalgia

CHAPTER 10: FROZEN PIZZA

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Approaches $9 Billion in 2029
• Table 10-1. US Frozen Pizza Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Frozen Pizza Eaten by Only Half of US Households
• Table 10-2. Consumption Rates for Frozen Pizza, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households)
• Frozen Pizzas Eaters Don't Eat Them That Often
• Table 10-3. Packages of Frozen Pizza Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat frozen pizza)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
• Ultra-Indulgent
• Sensory Delight
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Healthier-for-you
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 11: ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Increasing to Over $19 Billion in 2029
• Table 11-1. US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million units, and percent change)
• Category and Segment Sales
• Frozen Novelties Will Continue to Outperform Ice Cream
• Table 11-2. US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Dollar Sales: By Category & Segment, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars and percent)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Regular (Full-Fat) Ice Cream Overwhelmingly Preferred
• Table 11-3. Types of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten Most Often, 2017 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)
• Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaters Don't Consume Much
• Table 11-4. Pints of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2016 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Mindful Indulgence
• Cultural Cuisine
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 12: MEAL & SNACK BARS

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Approaching $10 Billion in 2029
• Table 12-1. US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
• Category Sales
• Table 12-2. US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales: By Category, Segment 2019 - 2029 (million dollars)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Heaviest-Consuming Snack Bar Group Expands
• Table 12-3. Number of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2018 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat breakfast/cereal/granola bars)
• Key Brand Differences
• Table 12-4. Consumption Rates for Selected Brands of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households that eat bars)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Indulgence
• Healthier-For-You
• Sensory Delight
• Cultural Cuisine
• Kid-Focused
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 13: MEAT AND POULTRY

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Approaching $158 Billion in 2029
• Table 13-1. US Meat and Poultry Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
• Category and Segment Sales
• Meat Continues to Dominate Category Sales
• Table 13-2. US Meat and Poultry Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category/Segment, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars and percent change)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Poultry Preferred Over Meat but Gap Shrinking
• Table 13-3. Consumption Rates for Meat & Poultry, 2014 --2024 (percent of households)
• Consumers Overwhelming Prefer Fresh Over Frozen
• Table 13-4. Consumption Rates for Fresh versus Frozen Meat & Poultry, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households that eats meat or poultry)
• Sausages Outperforming Other Processed Meats
• Table 13-5. Consumption Rates for Selected Processed Meats and Poultry, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Cultural Cuisine
• Convenient Meal Prep
• Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
• Sensory Delight
• Plant-based Alternatives
• Blends
• Cultivated Meat Facing Challenges
• Other Alternatives
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 14: NATURAL AND SPECIALTY CHEESE

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Approaching $26 Billion in 2029
• Table 14-1. US Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• Category Sales
• Table 14-2. US Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Mindful Indulgence
• Alternatives
• Restaurant/Cheese Shop Quality
• Snacking

CHAPTER 15: SALTY SNACKS

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market to Exceed $47 Billion in 2029
• Table 15-1. US. Salty Snacks Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
• Segment Sales
• Growth Driven by Non-Chip Salty Snacks
• Table 15-2. US. Salty Snack Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars and percent change)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Potato Chips Still Most Preferred But Trending Down
• Table 15-3. Consumption Rates for Selected Salty Snacks, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households)
• Chip Eaters Don't Consume Much
• Table 15-4. Bags of Potato Chips Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat potato chips)
• Table 15-5. Bags of Corn/Tortilla/Other Chips & Cheese Snacks Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 -2024 (percent of US households that eat corn/tortilla/other chips & cheese snacks)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Cultural Cuisine
• Mindful Indulgence
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Responsible NPD
• Kid-focused

CHAPTER 16: SOUP

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Increasing to Over $10 Billion in 2029
• Table 16-1. US Soup Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds/16oz. equivalents, and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Healthier-for-You
• Cultural Cuisine
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Sensory Delight
• Influencer Inspired

CHAPTER 17: YOGURT

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Approaching $15 Billion in 2029
• Table 17-1. US Yogurt Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pints, and percent change)
• Category Sales
• Table 17-2. US Yogurt Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• After Pandemic Boost, Yogurt Consumption Relatively Steady
• Table 17-3. Consumption Rates for Yogurt, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households)
• Regular (Full-Fat) Yogurt Still Preferred
• Table 17-4. Types of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
• Plain and Flavored Yogurt Gain at Expense of Fruit Varieties
• Table 17-5. Kinds of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
• Greatest Growth in 2024 from Those Eating the Most
• Table 17-6. Containers of Yogurt Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Healthier-For-You
• Dairy-Free and Plant-Based Alternatives
• Increase Kids' Consumption
• Sensory Delight
• Influencer Inspired
• Snacking