数位世界中纸币的未来（至2029年）

主要事实

• 非接触式数位支付的使用在全球各经济体中持续快速成长，而全球流通的货币数量也逐年成长，目前估计已达到 40 兆美元。
• 目前流通的纸币超过 5,500亿张，代表 180 种世界货币。

全球新钞产量持续成长，2019年至2024年的年复合成长率为 3.7%。儘管全球销售点（POS）现金的使用量十多年来一直在下降，但这一情况仍然没有改善。在许多国家，现金仍然是销售点交易的重要手段，对于估计有 17亿无法获得银行服务的人来说，现金是首选或必要的支付方式。

现金比其他支付方式更具优势，因为它方便、可靠且匿名。在全球不确定时期，人们总是试图为意外情况做好准备，对现金的需求就会增加。

随着农村地区银行关闭和 ATM 网路萎缩，一些国家取得现金变得越来越困难。一些零售商坚持只接受数位支付，迫使政府介入，使接受现金支付成为一项法律义务。

本报告研究了数位世界中纸币的状况，提供了有关关键驱动因素和趋势、纸币和数位支付的技术进步以及货币行业监管的资讯。

目录

执行摘要

简介及研究方法

关键驱动因素与趋势

• 简介
• 现金的功能
  • 现金支付的优势
  • 现金支付的缺点
• 数位化与数位货币
• 金融包容性
• 危机时期的现金需求
• 纸钞悖论
• 衡量现金使用情况
• 实体货币的未来

纸钞与数位支付的技术进步

• 简介
• 钞票技术
  • 安全级别
• 安全功能
  • DOVID
  • iPrint 製程防伪油墨
  • 安全线
  • 浮水印
  • 标记物
  • 其他
• 数位化与数位货币
  • 物联网
  • 工业 4.0
  • 行动支付/数位钱包
    • QR Code
    • M-Pesa
• 数位货币
  • 加密货币
    • 加密货币的优势
    • 加密货币的缺点
  • 稳定币
  • 中央银行数位货币（CBDC）
  • 分散式帐本技术
    • 区块链

货币产业的法规

• 简介
• 关于取得现金和接受付款的法规
  • 欧洲
    • 欧盟
    • 英国
  • 北美洲
    • 美国
  • 亚洲
    • 中国
  • 其他地区
• 数位货币监管
  • 中央银行数位货币
  • 加密资产
    • 欧盟加密资产监管市场（MiCA）
    • 英国
    • 美国
    • 亚洲
• 反洗钱/打击资助恐怖主义（AML/CFT）
  • 加密货币与反洗钱/反恐怖主义融资

现金循环的未来

• 概述
• 付款趋势
  • 销售点交易
  • 电子商务
• 现金供应链
  • 中央银行
  • 商业银行
    • ATM 的未来
  • 现金运输
  • 流通中的货币
• 现金循环还有未来吗？

地理市场与预测：依地区

• 概述
• 欧洲
  • 欧元区
    • 德国
    • 法国
    • 西班牙
  • 英国
  • 斯堪的纳维亚
• 北美洲
  • 美国
  • 加拿大
• 拉丁美洲
  • 墨西哥
  • 巴西
  • 阿根廷
  • 巴哈马
  • 牙买加
• 亚洲
  • 中国
    • 香港
  • 印度
• 澳洲
• 中东和非洲

Key facts:

• While the use of digital forms of contactless payments continue to grow rapidly in economies around the world, the global currency-in-circulation also continues to grow year-on-year and currently stands at an estimated $40 trillion.
• Over 550 billion banknotes from 180 recognised global currencies are currently in circulation.

The production of new banknotes continues to grow globally, 3.7% CAGR during 2019-24. This comes despite the use of cash for point of sale (POS) payments declining globally for over a decade. Cash remains an important method for POS transactions in many countries, through preference or by necessity for the estimated 1.7 billion people who do not have access to banking facilities.

Cash retains an advantage over other forms of payment in that it is convenient, reliable and anonymous. Periods of global uncertainty have invariably seen an increased demand for cash as people look to protect against unforeseen emergencies.

Closures of local branches of banks and a shrinking network of ATMs is making access to cash more difficult in some countries. Some retailers are insisting on payment by digital methods only and governments are having to intervene to make the acceptance of cash payments a legal obligation.

Key Questions:

• Is the world heading towards a cashless society or will cash retain an important role in payment transactions well into the future?
• What technologies are being utilised by central banks to introduce new and more secure banknotes and combat the efforts of counterfeiters?
• How are developments in central bank digital currencies creating challenges that could impact the future of physical cash?

This report is essential to:

• Organisations active in the printing and distribution of cash
• Payment technology suppliers
• Central banks, state printers and mints

Table of Contents

Executive summary

Introduction and methodology

• Introduction
• Report scope
• Report objective
• Methodology
• Definitions
  • List of abbreviations

Key drivers and trends

• Introduction
• The functions of cash
  • Advantages of cash payments
  • Disadvantages of cash payments
• Digitalisation and digital currency
• Financial inclusion
• Demand for cash in times of crisis
• The paradox of banknotes
• Measuring the use of cash
• The future of physical currency

Technological advancements in banknotes and digital payments

• Introduction
• Banknote technologies
  • Levels of security
• Security features
  • DOVIDs
  • iPrint process & security inks
  • Security threads
  • Watermarking
  • Taggants
  • Others
• Digitalisation and digital currencies
  • Internet of Things
  • Industry 4.0
  • Mobile payments/digital wallets
    • QR codes
    • M-Pesa
• Digital currencies
  • Cryptocurrencies
    • Cryptocurrency advantages
    • Cryptocurrency disadvantages
  • Stablecoins
  • Central bank digital currencies (CBDC)
  • Distributed ledger technology
    • Blockchain

Regulations in the currency industry

• Introduction
• Regulations on the access to cash and its acceptance for payments
  • Europe
    • European Union
    • United Kingdom
  • North America
    • USA
  • Asia
    • China
  • Rest of the World
• Regulations on digital currencies
  • CBDCs
  • Crypto assets
    • Markets on Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), European Union
    • United Kingdom
    • USA
    • Asia
• Anti-money laundering and combating the finance of terrorism (AML/CFT)
  • Cryptocurrency and AML/CFT

The future of cash cycles

• Overview
• Payment trends
  • POS transactions
  • e-Commerce
• Cash supply chains
  • Central banks
  • Commercial banks
    • The future of ATMs
  • Cash-in-transit
  • Currency-in-circulation
• Does the cash cycle have a future?

Geographic markets and forecasts by region

• Overview
• Europe
  • The eurozone
    • Germany
    • France
    • Spain
  • United Kingdom
  • Scandinavia
• North America
  • USA
  • Canada
• Latin America
  • Mexico
  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • The Bahamas
  • Jamaica
• Asia
  • China
    • Hong Kong
  • India
• Australia
• Middle East and Africa

List of Figures

• Share of unbanked adults by country, 2021
• Number of cashless transactions by region 2018 to 2021, with forecasts from 2022 to 2026 (billions)
• Number of m-PESA customers in Africa, 2017 to 2023 (millions)
• Median annual growth rates by value of banknotes in circulation, 2012 to 2022
• Banknote printing process
• New banknote launched in Japan in July 2024
• Banknote security features 2019, 2024 & 2029 ($ million)
• Green LongLife RollingStar-R Hologram Micromirror LEAD Mix, Louisenthal
• Rapid Vision security threads
• Polymer banknotes embedded with ASSURE taggant
• CINEMA promotional house note
• Mobile payments app adoption rates by country
• Mobile payments users by app
• Number of countries and currency unions exploring CBDC, July 2024
• Central Bank digital currencies status - July 2024
• Distributed ledger technology vs centralised ledger
• Three stages of money laundering
• Total cryptocurrency value laundered by year, 2017 to 2021 ($ billion)
• The stages of the cash cycle
• Global POS payment methods, 2023 and 2027f (transaction value %)
• Cash POS transaction value 2023 vs 2019, selected countries
• Bank offices in euro area, 2008-2023 (bank offices per 100,000 inhabitants)
• US net closings by banks, 2013 to 2023
• Smart ATM
• Currency in Circulation, selected countries - 2015 to 2023 ($ billion)
• Banknote annual production by denomination (number of notes printed, millions)
• China - 2024 Lunar New Year Commemorative Note
• The pros and cons of a cashless society
• Banknote production, global - 2019 to 2029 (based on production value in $ million)
• Global cash transaction value, 2017 to 2027
• Adults with no bank account, share by country 2021
• Banknote demand by region, 2019 to 2024
• Number and value of euro banknotes in circulation, 2010 to 2023
• Share of payment instruments used at the POS in terms of number and value of transactions, 2016-2022, Euro Area
• Euro Area: Share of Payment Instruments in Point-of-Sale (POS) Transactions by country, 2022
• Euro Area: Sources of Cash Withdrawals by country, 2022
• France: Shares of payment instruments at point-of-sale by transaction volume
• Germany: Shares of payment instruments by transaction volume and by transaction value, 2023
• Germany: Sources of Cash Withdrawals, 2022
• Spain: Share of POS payment instruments by number and value of transactions, 2022
• Main payment method in Spain by age (2023)
• Spain, distance to closest cash access point, 2023
• POS payment methods, share of transaction value, 2022
• Volume of GBP banknotes in circulation, 201to 202 (millions)

List of Tables

• SWOT analysis of physical currency
• SWOT analysis of digitalisation and digital currency
• Global Financial Inclusion Index 2023
• Levels of banknote security
• Main types of holographic nanostructure origination techniques
• Summary of regulations affecting currency markets
• CIT cash distribution models
• Top 10 most unbanked countries
• Euro production by country by denomination
• Number of cash access points in UK by type and region