市场调查报告书
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全球光伏市场:到 2028 年的预测 - 按类型、位置、电网类型、技术、应用和地区分析Solar Photovoltaic Market Forecasts to 2028 - Global Analysis By Type, Installation, Grid Type, Technology, Application, and Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC,全球光伏 (PV) 市场规模将在 2022 年达到 1600 亿美元,预计到 2028 年将达到 2400 亿美元,预测期内的 CAGR 为 7。预计增长10%。
光伏 (PV) 方法是一种利用阳光发电的简单、无活动部件的方法。 利用阳光从硅主原子中提取电子以产生电流。 电子通过吸收光能从较高的原子轨道位置射出。
根据国际能源署的数据,到 2021 年,中国每年的光伏电网装机容量将翻一番。 2021年,该地区光伏并网运行容量为34.5GW。
市场动态
驱动程序
加大对太阳能资源的投入
世界各地的环境法规正在迫使电力生产商转向更环保的能源。 世界主要国家都在大力发展可再生能源发电,以减少对化石能源发电的依赖。 在可再生能源中,特别是太阳能发电已成为全球性的课题。 因此,即使在预测期内,增加对太阳能资源的投资也正在创造一个有吸引力的机会来发展全球光伏 (PV) 市场。
抑製剂
转化效率低
与生物质和石油等传统能源相比,太阳能的转换效率较低。 此外,由于太阳能电池所用原材料的类型、日照时数和光伏设计等影响光伏系统性能的各种因素增加,预计在预测期内增长将受到抑制。
机会
有利的政府政策和未来的项目
为应对日益增加的二氧化碳排放,世界各国政府正在实施各种可再生能源发展政策。 这些政策加速了光伏产业的全球扩张。 中国光伏产业为全球市场做出了巨大贡献。 全球光伏市场受到其规则变化的巨大影响。 由于不明确的上网电价政策和削减对太阳能项目的补贴,中国的投资大幅下降。 预计修订后的 FiT 法规的实施将在预测期内重振市场,促进太阳能项目的发展。 与其他大型太阳能光伏产业一样,印度也受益于多项政府计划,以支持该国的电力部门和太阳能光伏装置的安装。
威胁
大型陆用电源
公用事业规模的太阳能项目需要大型陆上电源。 许多环境和技术因素会影响这种土地选择。 使用此类土地安装光伏系统会对生物多样性和自然区域产生影响。 大型太阳能发电厂必须考虑许多变量,例如土地、交通网络、对附近居民区的影响、与电网的距离。 这些制约限制了全球光伏产业的扩张。
COVID-19 的影响
COVID-19 疫情对供应链产生了重大影响,但对市场增长影响不大。 光伏及相关技术成本的下降是推动全球光伏市场的主要因素。 规模经济、提高材料效率和优化製造可能是降低成本的因素。 然而,风力发电和生物能源等其他绿色技术的发展等问题预计将限制市场扩张。
地面安装部分预计将成为预测期内最大的部分
由于公用事业规模项目的增加、太阳能光伏目标的增加以及太阳能光伏安装成本的降低,预计地面安装部分将实现有利增长。 世界各国都在规划大规模的太阳能发电项目,以实现能源多样化,减少对化石燃料发电的依赖。 因此,大型太阳能发电项目的安装正在增加,地面太阳能发电由于上述背景预计将成为预测期内的主流。
预计住宅行业在预测期内的复合年增长率最高
由于较低的初始投资成本和更高效的光伏组件,预计住宅领域在预测期内将以最快的复合年增长率增长。. 然而,在联邦优惠待遇结束后,安装量预计会下降,尤其是在住宅领域。 在预测期内,随着用于发电和低成本供暖的光伏系统的普及,市场有望扩大。
份额最大的地区
在预测期内,亚太地区预计将占据最大的市场份额。 新兴国家是该领域装机容量最大的市场。 在过去的几年里,光伏产业经历了比该地区任何其他国家都快的爆炸式增长。 JNNSM 旨在通过为其传播创造政治环境,将印度定位为太阳能领域的全球领导者。 在预测期内,计划中的光伏项目、有利的政府政策以及光伏组件和相关係统的价格下降等因素有望推动该地区的光伏市场。
复合年增长率最高的地区
预计在预测期内,北美的复合年增长率最高。 北美政府在全国启动了众多光伏、太阳能热和光热发电项目。 其中之一是位于索诺拉州利伯塔港的 46.8 兆瓦太阳能发电设施。 因此,预计在预测期内对国内光伏系统的需求将增加。 此外,随着对可再生能源的需求不断增加,预计电力公司将大幅扩建其设施。 鑑于当前的安装率,这很可能会发生。 由于针对屋顶安装太阳能的法规和激励措施,预计住宅太阳能装置在预测期内也将增加。
主要发展
2021 年 1 月,荷兰皇家壳牌 PLC 对 25MW Qabas 太阳能发电厂进行了调试。 该发电厂将位于阿曼北部苏哈尔自由贸易区内占地 50 公顷的场地,将由超过 88,000 个太阳能组件组成。 每年可以避免超过 25,000 吨的二氧化碳排放。
2021 年 1 月,Sembcorp Energy India Ltd 宣布赢得印度拉贾斯坦邦一个新的 400 兆瓦太阳能发电项目。 同样,2021 年 2 月,我们在美国规划的最大太阳能发电厂三星太阳能中心破土动工。 该太阳能发电厂的容量为 1,013 兆瓦,计划于 2023 年完工。
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According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market is accounted for $160 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach $240 billion by 2028 growing at a CAGR of 7% during the forecast period. The solar photovoltaic (PV) method is a simple, non-moving-parts way to generate electricity from sunshine. In order to generate an electric current, electrons from silicon host atoms are taken out by solar light. Electrons are propelled out of their high atomic orbit by absorbing photons, or packets of light energy.
According to IEA, the annual PV grid capacity in 2021 in China doubled as compared to the same in 2021. The region in 2021 had a PV grid operational capacity of 34.5 GW.
Market Dynamics:
Driver:
Growing Investments in Solar Power Resources
Power-generating firms are under pressure to transition to greener and more ecologically friendly energy sources as a result of numerous environmental regulations across the globe. Major nations throughout the world are making great efforts to increase the production of electricity from renewable sources in order to reduce their reliance on fossil energy power generation. One of the main renewable energy sources that can help with many global concerns is solar energy. Therefore, increasing solar energy resource investments are creating appealing opportunities to grow the worldwide solar photovoltaic (PV) market even during course of the forecast period.
Restraint:
Low conversion efficiencies
When when compared to traditional energy sources like biomass and oil, the technique delivers low conversion efficiencies. Additionally, a number of variables, including as the kind of raw materials used to make solar cells, the amount of sunshine available, and solar PV design, have an impact on how well solar PV systems work, which is projected to restrain growth throughout the forecast period.
Opportunity:
Favorable Government Policies and Upcoming Projects
In reaction to the rising carbon emissions, governments all over the world have implemented a variety of policies for the development of renewable energy. The laws have considerably sped up the global expansion of the solar energy industry. China's solar PV industry makes a major contribution to the global market. The global market for solar PV is significantly impacted by changes to its rules. Due to its murky FiT policy and reduced subsidies for solar projects, China suffered a large fall in investment. With the implementation of the modified FiT regulation, the market is likely to pick up speed for the development of solar projects over the projected period. Similar to any other large solar energy industry, India benefits from many government programmes that support the country's utility- and domestic solar PV installations.
Threat:
Large land based power source
Utility-scale solar projects demand a substantial land-based power source. Numerous environmental or technical factors may have an impact on the choice of such land. The biodiversity and natural regions may be impacted by the usage of such land for the installation of solar systems. Large-scale solar-powered power plants must take into account a number of variables, including land, transportation networks, the effects on nearby residential areas, and distance from the electrical grid. The aforementioned constraints limit the expansion of the worldwide solar photovoltaic (PV) industry.
COVID-19 Impact
The COVID-19 epidemic significantly impacted the supply chain and had a very small influence on market growth. The lowering cost of solar PV and related technologies is the main force propelling the global solar PV market. Economies of scale, increased material efficiency, and manufacturing optimization can all be credited with the drop. However, throughout the anticipated period, issues including the development of other green technologies like wind and bio energy are anticipated to restrain market expansion.
The Ground-mounted segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Ground-mounted segment is estimated to have a lucrative growth, due to increase in utility-scale projects, solar energy targets, and falling solar PV installation costs. Large-scale solar PV projects are being planned by nations all over the world in an effort to diversify their energy sources and lessen their dependency on fossil fuel-based power generation. The increasing installation of large-scale utility solar PV projects is therefore anticipated to make ground-mounted solar PV a dominant segment over the projection period as a result of the considerations mentioned above.
The residential segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The residential segment is anticipated to witness the fastest CAGR growth during the forecast period, due to lower initial investment costs and increased solar PV module efficiency, the residential sector is anticipated to experience significant development. However, a decline in installations, notably from the residential segment, is anticipated after the expiration of federal incentives. Over the course of the forecast period, the market's expansion is anticipated to be anticipated by the rising popularity of photovoltaic systems due to their use in power generation and low-cost residential building heating.
Region with largest share:
Asia Pacific is projected to hold the largest market share during the forecast period. The major markets in the sector with the greatest installed capacities are developing countries. Over the past few years, the solar photovoltaic industry has exploded more quickly than that of any other nation in the region. By establishing the political circumstances for its widespread deployment, JNNSM aims to position India as a global lead in solar energy. During the forecast period, factors including planned solar PV projects, favourable governmental policies, and falling prices for solar PV modules and related systems are anticipated to propel the solar PV market in the area.
Region with highest CAGR:
North America is projected to have the highest CAGR over the forecast period. The government of North America has set up numerous solar, photovoltaic, as well as CSP projects all around the nation. One of these is a 46.8 MW-capacity photovoltaic facility at Puerto Libertad, Sonora. As a result, during the course of the projection period, the requirement for photovoltaic systems in the nation is anticipated to rise. In addition, the utility sector is anticipated to add significant capacity as a result of mounting pressure to achieve renewable energy requirements. On the basis of the present rate of installations, this is probably going to happen. Residential installations are also expected to increase over the projection period as a result of regulations and incentives tailored specifically to solar rooftop PV.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players profiled in the Solar Photovoltaic Market include Tata Power Solar Systems Ltd., Nextera Energy Sources LLC, Risen Energy, Sembcorp Energy India Ltd, Jinko Solar, BrightSource Energy Inc., Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Wuxi Suntech Power Co. Ltd, SunPower Corporation, Hanwha Q-CELLS, JA Solar and Canadian Solar Inc.
Key Developments:
In January 2021, Royal Dutch Shell PLC launched its 25 MW Qabas solar plant. The plant is located on a 50-hectare site within the Sohar Free zone in northern Oman, and consists of over 88,000 solar modules. It helps in avoiding more than 25,000 tons of CO2 emissions annually.
In January 2021, Sembcorp Energy India Ltd announced that it had won a new 400 MW solar power project in the Indian state of Rajasthan. Similarly, in February 2021, construction began on the Samson Solar Energy Center, the largest planned solar energy farm in the United States. The solar farm is expected to have 1,013 MW of generating capacity and is expected to be completed by 2023.
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