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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1489424
2030年基因改造种子市场预测:全球作物类型、特征、分销管道和地区Transgenic Seed Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Crop Type (Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Canola and Other Crop Types), Trait, Distribution Channel and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,2023 年全球基因改造种子市场规模为 269 亿美元,预计在预测期内复合年增长率为 7.2%,到 2030 年将达到 917 亿美元。
基因改造种子是透过将外源基因引入植物 DNA 中而产生的基因改造生物 (GMO)。这些基因可以编码诸如害虫抗性、除草剂耐受性和产量等性状。基因改造种子旨在提高作物生产力和永续性,但引起了人们对安全、环境影响和企业对农业控制的担忧。基因改造种子透过减少作物损失和化学品投入,为全球粮食安全挑战提供了潜在的解决方案。
最近的研究表明,基改作物可使作物产量提高22%,减少农药使用量37%,利润增加68%。
世界人口成长和粮食需求
随着人口成长,越来越需要提高农业生产力以满足粮食需求。基因改造种子经过基因改造,表现出对害虫和除草剂的抗性等特性,每英亩的产量可以比传统种子更高。这导致农民采用基改种子,寻求最大限度地提高作物产量来养活不断增长的人口,提高产量并减少可能威胁粮食安全的干旱和害虫等环境压力,从而提高抵御能力。
社会对基因改造生物安全性的担忧
公众对基因改造生物安全性的担忧可能会促使政府对基因改造种子和产品实施更严格的法规和标籤要求。这可能成为种子公司进入市场的障碍,因为遵守各地区不同的法规既昂贵又耗时。此外,一些国家可能会透过彻底禁止种植或进口基改作物来应对公众压力,这可能会进一步限制基改种子的市场机会。
永续农业实践的必要性
具有提高养分吸收效率和减少需水量等特性的基因改造种子可以提高资源利用效率并促进农业的永续性。透过最大限度地减少废弃物和优化资源利用,这些种子可以为保育工作做出贡献并减少农业的生态足迹。例如,经过固氮改造的作物可以减少对合成肥料的需求,而合成肥料可能会对环境产生负面影响,例如水污染和温室气体排放。
基因流和杂草抗性的潜力
杂草抗性损害了害虫综合治理方法的有效性并促进了对化学投入的依赖,从而对永续农业构成了挑战。抗除草剂基改作物无法控制抗性杂草,可能会导致除草剂使用量增加、潜在的环境污染以及对非目标生物体的负面影响。这可能会破坏农业系统的长期永续性,加剧环境退化,阻碍市场成长。
COVID-19 的影响
一方面,供应链中断和劳动力短缺正在影响种子生产和分销。另一方面,人们日益认识到粮食安全和弹性农业系统的必要性,正在推动人们对具有抗病性和产量等特性的基因改造种子的兴趣。监管延迟和农民收入下降带来了挑战,但永续农业的长期趋势可能会推动疫情后基因改造种子的持续创新和采用。
预计在预测期内抗虫产业将是最大的
抗虫部分被认为有良好的增长。专为抗虫而设计的基因改造种子为农民提供了免受害虫侵害的保护,并减少了作物的损害和损失。这会提高产量和生产力,使此类种子对寻求优化农业产量的农民变得非常有吸引力。此外,农民可以减少购买农药的成本以及散布农药所需的劳动力和设备,有助于提高农业经营的盈利和经济效益。
零售市场预计在预测期内复合年增长率最高。
在预测期内,零售领域将见证最高的复合年增长率,因为零售商经常向农民提供有关基因改造种子的资讯和教育资源,例如其好处、特性和正确使用方法。这使得农民能够就哪些基因改造种子最适合他们的特定需求和农业实践做出明智的决定。此外,我们还可以提供技术援助、故障排除指导和产品建议,帮助农民最大限度地发挥基因改造种子的有效性,并解决他们可能遇到的任何问题或疑虑。
由于美国、加拿大和墨西哥等国家生产和销售基因改造 (GM) 种子,预计亚太地区在预测期内将占据最大的市场占有率。这些公司在研发方面投入巨资,以创造具有理想性状的新基因改造种子品种,这些品种可以提高作物产量,减少对化学品投入的需求,并提高农业永续性。这些特性为农民提高了效率并降低了生产成本,从而导致亚太地区农业广泛采用基因改造种子。
预计北美在预测期内将呈现最高的复合年增长率,因为该地区包含玉米、大豆、棉花和油菜等主要作物的基因改造种子。拜耳、Corteva AgrisSciences、先正达和BASF等跨国公司占据主导地位,并专注于害虫抗性和除草剂耐受性等特性。这些特性为农民提供了增加的产量和降低的成本,但面临对其环境和健康影响的审查。法律规范因地区而异,美国普遍较为宽鬆。儘管存在争议,但基因改造种子在解决北美粮食安全和永续农业等农业挑战方面发挥着重要作用。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Transgenic Seed Market is accounted for $26.9 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $91.7 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 7.2% during the forecast period. Transgenic seeds are genetically modified organisms (GMOs) created by introducing foreign genes into plant DNA. These genes can encode traits like pest resistance, herbicide tolerance, or improved yield. Transgenic seeds aim to enhance crop productivity and sustainability but raise concerns about safety, environmental impact, and corporate control over agriculture. They offer potential solutions to global food security challenges by reducing crop losses and chemical inputs.
According to a recent study, GMOs enhance crop yields by 22%, reduce pesticide use by 37%, and increase profits by 68%.
Rising global population and food demand
With a growing population, there is an increasing need for higher agricultural productivity to meet the demand for food. Transgenic seeds, which are genetically modified to exhibit traits such as resistance to pests, diseases, and herbicides, can offer higher yields per acre compared to conventional seeds. This can lead to greater adoption of transgenic seeds by farmers looking to maximize their crop output to feed the growing population and improved yields, resilience against environmental stresses, such as drought or pests, which can threaten food security.
Public concern about genetically modified organism's safety
Public outcry over GMO safety concerns may prompt governments to impose stricter regulations or labelling requirements on transgenic seeds and products. This can create barriers to market access for seed companies, as compliance with varying regulations across different regions can be costly and time-consuming. Additionally, some countries may outright ban the cultivation or importation of genetically modified crops in response to public pressure, further limiting market opportunities for transgenic seeds.
Need for sustainable agricultural practices
Transgenic seeds designed for traits like increased nutrient uptake efficiency or reduced water requirements can enhance resource use efficiency in agriculture, promoting sustainability. By minimizing waste and optimizing resource utilization, these seeds can contribute to environmental conservation efforts and reduce the ecological footprint of agriculture. For example, crops engineered for nitrogen fixation can reduce the need for synthetic fertilizers, which can have adverse environmental impacts such as water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Potential for gene flow and weed resistance
Weed resistance poses challenges to sustainable agriculture by undermining the efficacy of integrated pest management practices and promoting reliance on chemical inputs. Inefficacy of herbicide-resistant transgenic crops in controlling resistant weeds can lead to increased herbicide usage, potential environmental contamination, and adverse impacts on non-target organisms. This can compromise the long-term sustainability of agricultural systems and exacerbate environmental degradation hampering the market growth.
Covid-19 Impact
On one hand, disruptions in supply chains and labor shortages have affected seed production and distribution. On the other hand, heightened awareness of food security and the need for resilient agricultural systems has spurred interest in transgenic seeds with traits like disease resistance and increased yields. Regulatory delays and reduced farmer incomes have posed challenges, but the long-term trend towards sustainable agriculture may drive continued innovation and adoption of transgenic seeds post-pandemic.
The insect resistance segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The insect resistance segment is estimated to have a lucrative growth, as transgenic seeds engineered for insect resistance offer farmer's protection against pests, reducing crop damage and losses. This leads to increased yields and productivity, making such seeds highly attractive to farmers seeking to optimize their agricultural output. Furthermore farmers spend less on purchasing pesticides, as well as on labour and equipment required for pesticide application, contributing to improved profitability and economic viability of farming operations.
The retail outlet segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The retail outlet segment is anticipated to witness the highest CAGR growth during the forecast period, owing to retail outlets which often provide information and educational resources to farmers about transgenic seeds, including their benefits, characteristics, and proper usage. This helps farmers make informed decisions about which transgenic seeds are best suited to their specific needs and agricultural practices. In addition these may offer technical assistance, troubleshooting guidance, or product recommendations to help farmers maximize the effectiveness of transgenic seeds and address any issues or concerns.
Asia Pacific is projected to hold the largest market share during the forecast period owing to the production, and sale of genetically modified (GM) seeds in countries like the United States, Canada, and Mexico. These companies invest heavily in research and development to create new genetically modified seed varieties with desirable traits that can improve crop yields, reduce the need for chemical inputs, and enhance agricultural sustainability. These traits offer farmers increased efficiency and reduced production costs, leading to widespread adoption of transgenic seeds in Asia Pacific agriculture.
North America is projected to have the highest CAGR over the forecast period, as it encompasses genetically modified seeds for major crops like corn, soybeans, cotton, and canola. Dominated by multinational corporations such as Bayer, Corteva Agriscience, Syngenta, and BASF, it focuses on traits like pest resistance and herbicide tolerance. These traits offer farmers increased yields and reduced costs but face scrutiny over environmental and health impacts. Regulatory frameworks vary across the region, with the United States generally more permissive. Despite controversy, transgenic seeds play a significant role in addressing agricultural challenges, including food security and sustainable farming practices, within the North American context.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in the Transgenic Seed Market include BASF SE, Bayer AG, DLF-Trifolium, Dow AgroSciences, Vilmorin & Cie SA, Groupe Limagrain, KWS AG, Land O'Lakes, Limagrain, Monsanto, Nemours & Company, Sakata, Science AG, Simplot, Suntory, Syngenta, UPL Limited.
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