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深度造假技术市场预测至 2030 年:按内容类型、组件、技术、应用、最终用户和地区进行的全球分析Deepfake Technology Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Content Type (Video Deepfakes, Image Deepfakes, Audio Deepfakes, Text Deepfakes and Other Content Types), Component, Technology, Application, End User and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,2024 年全球深度造假技术市场规模将达到 77 亿美元,预计到 2030 年将达到 290 亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为 24.5%。
深度造假技术利用人工智慧创建超现实的数位内容,尤其是模仿真人的影片和音讯。透过采用深度学习演算法,可以无缝地操纵或产生媒体,从而难以区分真实内容和捏造内容。虽然这项技术在娱乐和教育方面具有潜在的应用,但也存在重大的道德问题,因为它可能被滥用于错误讯息、诈骗和恶意活动,并且需要製定如何有效地检测和负责任地使用它。
对个人化内容的需求不断增长
人工智慧的进步和消费者对客製化体验不断增长的期望推动了市场对个人化内容不断增长的需求。娱乐、行销和教育等行业的公司正在利用深度造假功能来创建与个人观众产生共鸣的客製化媒体。这一趋势使品牌能够更有效地吸引用户、增强故事叙述并改善客户体验。
快速发展的营运技术
市场上操纵科技的快速发展带来了严重的负面后果,包括错误讯息的传播和对数位媒体的信任度下降。随着这些技术变得更加复杂,区分真实内容和捏造内容变得更加困难,从而为诈骗、骚扰和政治操纵打开了大门。因此,迫切需要加强检测方法和法律规范,以有效降低这些风险。
数位媒体平台的普及
数位媒体平台的激增透过提供可存取的管道来共用和分发受操纵的内容,对市场产生了重大影响。社群媒体和影片串流服务等平台的发展促进了深度造假的快速传播,常常模糊了现实与虚构之间的界线。这种可访问性增加了娱乐和行销中创造性应用的潜力,但也引起了对错误讯息、侵犯隐私和道德影响的担忧。
企业认知度低
企业对深度造假技术的认识有限可能会产生严重的负面后果,包括容易遭受意外滥用和操纵。许多组织可能不完全了解与深度造假相关的潜在风险,并且容易受到错误讯息宣传活动、诈骗和声誉损害的影响。这种知识的缺乏可能会阻碍有效政策和保障措施的製定,使公司承担法律责任,并削弱消费者的信心。
COVID-19 的爆发对市场产生了重大影响,加速了数位内容的消费和对远端通讯工具的需求。随着人们转向线上平台进行娱乐、教育和社交互动,对个人化和身临其境型媒体的兴趣与日俱增。数位化参与度的激增刺激了虚拟活动和线上学习等多个领域的深度造假应用程式的创新。但对假讯息和深度造假的道德使用的担忧也有所增加,需要更好的监管和检测方法。
音讯深度造假领域预计在预测期内成长最高
预计音讯深度造假领域将在预测期内占据最大的市场占有率。该技术可应用于娱乐、游戏和个人化内容,使创作者能够创建逼真的叙述或重现历史人物的演讲。然而,音讯深度造假的兴起引发了严重的道德问题,包括潜在的诈骗、错误讯息和身分窃盗。随着意识的提高,对强大的检测工具和法规结构的需求变得越来越重要。
预计通讯业在预测期内的复合年增长率最高
通讯业能够透过深度造假快速传输和共用深度伪造内容,预计在预测期内复合年增长率最高。随着行动和网路连接的改善,用户将能够轻鬆存取和分发复杂的深度造假,从而影响通讯和媒体消费。通讯公司面临着检测和减轻有害深度造假传播的挑战,这些伪造品会导致错误讯息和侵犯隐私。
由于人工智慧的进步和各行业对创新内容的需求不断增加,预计北美地区将在预测期内占据最大的市场占有率。由主要企业和研究机构组成的强大技术生态系统正在推动娱乐、行销和安全领域先进的深度造假应用程式的开发。
由于技术的快速进步和数位化参与度的增加,预计亚太地区在预测期内将实现最高的成长率。 深度造假用于在电影和行销宣传活动中创建引人入胜的内容。人们越来越有兴趣使用深度造假技术创建互动式培训材料并透过真实模拟增强学习体验。随着市场的成长,平衡创新和道德考量对于永续发展非常重要。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Deepfake Technology Market is accounted for $7.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $29.0 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 24.5% during the forecast period. Deepfake technology utilizes artificial intelligence to create hyper-realistic digital content, particularly videos and audio that mimics real people. By employing deep learning algorithms, it can seamlessly manipulate or generate media, making it challenging to distinguish between authentic and fabricated content. While this technology has potential applications in entertainment and education, it also poses significant ethical concerns, as it can be exploited for misinformation, fraud, and malicious activities, necessitating the development of effective detection methods and responsible usage guidelines.
Growing demand for personalized content
The growing demand for personalized content in the market is driven by advancements in AI and increasing consumer expectations for tailored experiences. Businesses across various sectors, including entertainment, marketing, and education, seek to leverage deepfake capabilities to create customized media that resonates with individual audiences. This trend allows brands to engage users more effectively, enhance storytelling, and improve customer experiences.
Rapidly evolving manipulation techniques
The rapid evolution of manipulation techniques in the market poses significant negative effects, including the proliferation of misinformation and erosion of trust in digital media. As these techniques become more sophisticated, it becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish between real and fabricated content, leading to potential exploitation for fraud, harassment, and political manipulation. Consequently, there is an urgent need for enhanced detection methods and regulatory frameworks to mitigate these risks effectively.
Proliferation of digital media platforms
The proliferation of digital media platforms has significantly impacted the market by providing accessible channels for sharing and distributing manipulated content. As platforms like social media and video streaming services grow, they facilitate the rapid spread of deepfakes, often blurring the lines between reality and fiction. This accessibility increases the potential for creative applications in entertainment and marketing, but it also raises concerns about misinformation, privacy violations, and the ethical implications.
Limited awareness among enterprises
Limited awareness among enterprises regarding deepfake technology can lead to significant negative effects, including unintentional misuse and vulnerability to manipulation. Many organizations may not fully understand the potential risks associated with deepfakes, making them susceptible to misinformation campaigns, fraud, and reputational damage. This lack of knowledge can hinder the development of effective policies and protective measures, exposing businesses to legal liabilities and eroding consumer trust.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the market by accelerating digital content consumption and the demand for remote communication tools. As people turned to online platforms for entertainment, education, and social interaction, the interest in personalized and immersive media grew. This surge in digital engagement spurred innovation in deepfake applications across various sectors, including virtual events and online learning. However, it also heightened concerns about misinformation and the ethical use of deepfakes, prompting calls for better regulation and detection measures.
The audio deepfakes segment is projected to be the largest during the forecast period
The audio deepfakes segment is projected to account for the largest market share during the projection period. This technology has applications in entertainment, gaming, and personalized content, allowing creators to produce realistic voiceovers or re-create historical figures' speeches. However, the rise of audio deepfakes raises significant ethical concerns, including potential misuse for fraud, misinformation, and identity theft. As awareness grows, the need for robust detection tools and regulatory frameworks becomes increasingly critical.
The telecommunications segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The telecommunications segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the extrapolated period enabling the rapid transmission and sharing of deepfake content across networks. As mobile and internet connectivity improve, users can easily access and distribute sophisticated deepfakes, impacting communication and media consumption. Telecommunications companies face challenges in detecting and mitigating the spread of harmful deepfakes, which can lead to misinformation and privacy violations.
North America region is projected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and increasing demand for innovative content across various industries. The region's robust tech ecosystem, characterized by leading companies and research institutions, fosters the development of sophisticated deepfake applications in entertainment, marketing, and security.
Asia Pacific is expected to register the highest growth rate over the forecast period driven by its rapid technological advancements and increasing digital engagement. Deepfakes are being utilized for creating engaging content in film and marketing campaigns. There is growing interest in using deepfake technology for creating interactive training materials, enhancing learning experiences through realistic simulations. As the market grows, balancing innovation with ethical considerations will be crucial for sustainable development.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Deepfake Technology market include Intel Corporation, NVIDIA, Facebook, Google LLC, Twitter, Cogito Tech, Tencent, Microsoft, Kairos, Reface AI, Amazon Web Services, Adobe, TikTok and DeepWare AI.
In May 2024, Google unveiled a new method to label text as AI-generated without altering it. This new feature has been integrated into Google DeepMind's SynthID tool, which was already capable of identifying AI-generated images and audio clips. This method introduces additional information to the large language model (LLM)-based tool while generating text.
In April 2024, Microsoft's research team gave a glimpse into their latest AI model. Called VASA-1, the model can generate lifelike talking faces with appealing visual affective skills (VAS) given a single static image and a speech audio clip.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.