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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1700036
2032 年尿素市场预测:按产品类型、等级、作物类型、特种类型、技术、应用、最终用户和地区进行的全球分析Urea Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Product Type, Grade, Crop Type, Specialty Type, Technology, Application, End User and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,预计 2025 年全球尿素市场规模将达到 1,455 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 1,940.7 亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为 4.2%。
尿素,别名脲,是一种富氮有机化合物,化学式为CO(NH2)2。全球化肥业严重依赖尿素来改善土壤肥力和提高农业产量。在哈伯-博施法中,氨和二氧化碳在高温高压下反应,生成尿素-一种溶解性极强的物质。尿素广泛用于农业,但在黏合剂、树脂和药品生产等工业製程中也至关重要。它还透过车辆的选择性催化还原 (SCR) 系统减少氮氧化物排放,从而提高环境永续性。
根据国际肥料协会《2024-2028中期肥料展望》预测,2023年全球尿素产量将达到1.955亿吨,较2022年成长6%。
农业对肥料的需求不断增加
由于尿素含氮量高且价格便宜,是世界上最受欢迎的氮肥。到2050年,地球人口预计将达到97亿,将增加粮食需求并对农业生产造成压力。产量农业技术利用尿素等氮肥来改善土壤肥力、提高作物产量,越来越受到农民的欢迎。此外,永续农业实践和精密农业的使用促进了控制释放肥料的使用,提高了生产力并减少了氮损失。
能源和原物料价格波动
天然气和煤炭是哈伯-博施法合成氨的主要原料,也是生产尿素所必需的原料。尿素的生产成本受到政府政策变化、供应链中断和地缘政治紧张局势的影响很大,这些因素导致全球能源价格波动。北美和欧洲天然气价格上涨,迫使化肥製造商减产并提高价格,导致终端用户难以负担尿素。此外,环境法规和不稳定的原料供应也影响中国和印度的煤製尿素生产。
绿色尿素和生物基尿素生产的成长
随着永续性和碳中和肥料生产的推动,来自可再生资源的绿色尿素变得越来越可用。传统的尿素生产是一个碳密集过程,因为它主要依赖石化燃料,尤其是煤炭和天然气。透过碳捕获、电化学固氮和绿色氨生产技术的发展,低排放尿素生产正在成为可能。许多公司正在投资以氢为基础的氨合成技术,因为它比传统技术更环保。此外,监管机构更严格的碳定价和排放目标正在推动对永续尿素生产的需求,预计这将带来新的市场利基。
永续性和环境监管挑战
由于人们日益担心氮肥对环境的影响,尿素市场正面临严重威胁。过量使用尿素基肥料会造成温室气体排放,尤其是氧化亚氮(N2O),导致全球暖化的可能性约为二氧化碳的300倍,同时也会造成氮淋失和地下水污染。此外,全球对化肥使用、硝酸盐污染和氨排放的监管立法不断加强,迫使种植者和农民转向永续的替代品,如控制释放製剂、有机肥料和生物肥料。
新冠疫情对尿素市场产生了多方面的影响,扰乱了全球供应链,同时也引发了需求波动。由于封锁和行动限制,尿素的生产和分销受到劳动力短缺、运输瓶颈和原材料短缺的影响。中国、印度和俄罗斯等主要尿素生产国遭遇物流挫折,港口拥挤和出口限制进一步阻碍了国际贸易。因此,在农业领域,由于持续的农场管理和政府补贴,尿素需求保持稳定或增加,而在工业领域,由于化学、汽车和建筑业放缓,尿素需求下降。
预计颗粒尿素市场在预测期内将占最大份额
预计在预测期内,颗粒尿素将占据最大的市场占有率,这主要是由于氮含量增加、处理品质更好、储存更稳定。其粒径大,无扬尘,分布均匀,广泛应用于规模农业,特别是粗放型耕作和机械化施肥。颗粒尿素溶解缓慢,使其成为有效的土壤肥料,可减少氮损失并增强作物吸收。此外,随着精密农业和控制释放肥料投资的增加,颗粒尿素在现代农业实践中变得越来越必要。
预计在预测期内,饲料级的复合年增长率最高。
由于饲料级氮作为非蛋白质氮(NPN)来源在动物饲料中的应用日益增多,预计在预测期内饲料级氮将出现最高成长率。其在酪农和畜牧业的应用正值高蛋白饲料和廉价动物营养解决方案需求不断增长的背景下,尤其是在畜牧业日益兴起的新兴经济体中。此外,饲料级尿素可提高瘤胃微生物活性,并提高整体消化率和饲料效率,使其成为鱼粉和大豆粕等更昂贵的蛋白质来源的理想替代品。此外,永续的畜牧业、政府对乳製品产业的支持以及全球肉品消费量的增加也在推动尿素市场的扩张。
在预测期内,亚太地区预计将占据最大的市场占有率,因为该地区人口众多、农业活动活跃以及政府对化肥使用的大力支持。中国、印度、印尼等国家农业部门规模庞大,粮食需求不断成长,已成为重要的消费国。印度很大程度上依赖进口,但也受到政府计画和化肥补贴的推动,而中国作为世界上最大的尿素生产国,在国内消费和国际出口方面都发挥关键作用。此外,化学品、黏合剂和树脂等工业应用的需求不断增长,该地区的优势也日益增强。
在预测期内,预计中东和非洲地区将呈现最高的复合年增长率,这得益于工业应用的扩大、化肥需求的增加以及农业投资的增加。天然气是尿素合成的重要原料,沙乌地阿拉伯、阿联酋和埃及等国家正利用天然气蕴藏量迅速提高尿素生产能力。在政府计画和外国对农业领域投资的帮助下,随着对粮食安全和更好的耕作方法的关注度不断提高,非洲的尿素消费量也正在加速成长。此外,对亚洲和欧洲出口的增加有助于该地区成为全球市场的主要企业。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Urea Market is accounted for $145.50 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $194.07 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 4.2% during the forecast period. Carbamide, another name for urea, is an organic compound that is rich in nitrogen and has the chemical formula CO (NH2)2. The global fertilizer industry relies heavily on it to improve soil fertility and increase agricultural output. Through the Haber-Bosch process, ammonia and carbon dioxide react at high temperatures and pressures to produce urea, a highly soluble substance. Urea is used extensively in agriculture, but it is also essential for industrial processes like making adhesives, resins, and medications. It also improves environmental sustainability by lowering nitrogen oxide emissions in automobile selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems.
According to the International Fertilizer Association's Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2024-2028, global urea production reached 195.5 million metric tons in 2023, marking a 6% increase compared to 2022.
Increasing fertilizer demand in agriculture
Due to its high nitrogen content and affordability, urea is the most popular nitrogen-based fertilizer in the world. By 2050, it is anticipated that there will be 9.7 billion people on the planet, which will increase demand for food and strain agricultural output. High-yield farming methods, which use nitrogen fertilizers like urea to improve soil fertility and increase crop yields, are becoming more and more popular among farmers. Additionally, the use of sustainable agricultural methods and precision farming is promoting the controlled release of fertilizers, increasing productivity, and lowering nitrogen losses.
Price fluctuations for energy and raw materials
Natural gas and coal, the main raw materials for ammonia synthesis in the Haber-Bosch process, are crucial to the production of urea. The cost of producing urea is greatly impacted by changes in government policies, supply chain interruptions, and geopolitical tensions that cause fluctuations in global energy prices. Urea has become less affordable for end users as a result of fertilizer manufacturers being forced to reduce production or raise prices due to rising natural gas prices in North America and Europe. Furthermore, environmental regulations and the unpredictability of raw material supplies affect the production of urea from coal in China and India.
Growth in green and bio-based urea production
Green urea from renewable sources is becoming more accessible as a result of the drive toward sustainability and carbon-neutral fertilizer production. Conventional urea production is a carbon-intensive process since it mainly depends on fossil fuels, especially coal and natural gas. Low-emission urea production is being made possible by developments in carbon capture, electrochemical nitrogen fixation, and green ammonia production. As a more environmentally friendly option to traditional techniques, a number of businesses are investing in hydrogen-based ammonia synthesis. Moreover, a new market niche is anticipated as a result of the increased demand for sustainable urea production brought about by regulatory bodies' stricter carbon pricing and emission reduction targets.
Challenges of sustainability and environmental regulations
The market for urea is seriously threatened by growing worries about the effects of nitrogen fertilizers on the environment. Overuse of urea-based fertilizers causes greenhouse gas emissions, especially nitrous oxide (N2O), which has a potential for global warming that is almost 300 times greater than that of CO2, as well as nitrogen leaching and groundwater contamination. Additionally, stricter laws governing fertilizer use, nitrate pollution, and ammonia emissions are being enforced globally, compelling producers and farmers to switch to sustainable substitutes like controlled-release formulations, organic fertilizers, and bio-fertilizers.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a mixed impact on the urea market, disrupting global supply chains while simultaneously driving demand fluctuations. The production and distribution of urea were impacted by labor shortages, transportation bottlenecks, and shortages of raw materials brought on by lockdowns and movement restrictions. Major urea-producing countries such as China, India, and Russia experienced logistical setbacks, and port congestion and export restrictions further hampered international trade. Consequently, the agricultural sector saw stable or rising demand for urea due to ongoing farming operations and government subsidies, while the industrial sector saw a decline in demand due to slowdowns in the chemical, automotive, and building sectors.
The Granular Urea segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Granular Urea segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, mainly because of its increased nitrogen content, better handling qualities, and more stable storage. Because of its larger particle size, which prevents dust formation and guarantees even spreading, it is widely used in large-scale agriculture, particularly in broad-acre farming and mechanized fertilizer application. Granular urea is more effective for soil application because of its slow rate of dissolution, which reduces nitrogen loss and enhances crop uptake. Moreover, granular urea is also becoming more and more necessary in contemporary farming methods due to rising investments in precision agriculture and controlled-release fertilizers.
The Feed Grade segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the Feed Grade segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by its growing use in animal feed as a source of non-protein nitrogen (NPN). Its use in the dairy and livestock industries has been driven by the growing demand for high-protein diets and affordable animal nutrition solutions, especially in emerging economies where cattle farming is growing. Additionally, feed-grade urea is a desirable substitute for pricey protein sources like fish meal and soybean meal because it increases rumen microbial activity, which improves digestion and feed efficiency overall. Its market expansion is also being driven by the increased emphasis on sustainable livestock production, government assistance for the dairy industry, and rising meat consumption globally.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share, driven by a large population, a high level of agricultural activity, and robust government support for fertilizer use. Because of their vast agricultural sectors and rising food demand, nations like China, India, and Indonesia are significant consumers. While India mainly depends on imports to meet its agricultural needs, aided by government programs and fertilizer subsidies, China, the world's largest producer of urea, plays a significant role in both domestic consumption and international exports. Furthermore, the region's dominance is reinforced by the growing demand for industrial applications like chemicals, adhesives, and resins.
Over the forecast period, the Middle East & Africa region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, driven by growing industrial applications, rising fertilizer demand, and rising agricultural investments. A vital raw material for urea synthesis, natural gas reserves are being used by nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt to quickly increase their urea production capacity. With the help of government programs and foreign investments in the agricultural sector, Africa's increased emphasis on food security and better farming practices is also speeding up the consumption of urea. Moreover, the region is becoming a major player in the global market as a result of its increasing exports to Asia and Europe.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Urea market include CF Industries Holdings, Inc., Qatar Fertilizer Company, Yara International ASA, SABIC, OCI N.V, EuroChem Group, Acron Group, Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd, Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd, Koch Fertilizer LLC, Nutrien AG, BASF SE, Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Ltd, Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd and Coromandel International Limited.
In September 2024, SABIC has announced a significant move in its strategic realignment with the signing of an agreement to sell its 20.62% stake in Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) to Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden). The transaction, which is valued between BHD 363 million and BHD 398 million (equivalent to SAR 3,624 million to SAR 3,974 million), is set to proceed pending regulatory approvals from authorities in both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
In July 2024, Yara and Atome sign Heads of Terms for offtake from Atome's renewable CAN project in Villeta, Paraguay. The deal between Atome and Yara covers the long-term supply of all of the Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) from Atome's renewable production facility in Villeta, Paraguay. The 145 MW fertilizer project will produce and export fertilizers derived from baseload renewable power from 2027.
In May 2024, EuroChem has signed an agreement with China National Chemical Engineering Co. (CNCEC) for the design, construction and commissioning of a chemical complex in Janatas, Jambyl Region, Kazakhstan. CNCEC is a global provider of industrial engineering technologies with 70 years of experience in constructing petrochemical facilities.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.