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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1871959
全球电动商用车市场:预测(至2032年)-按车辆类型、推进系统、零件、电池容量、续航里程、应用和地区进行分析Electric Commercial Vehicle Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Vehicle Type, Propulsion Type, Component, Battery Capacity, Range, Application, and By Geography |
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根据 Stratistics MRC 的一项研究,预计到 2025 年,全球电动商用车市场规模将达到 762 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 3,866 亿美元。
预计在预测期内,电动商用车市场将以26.1%的复合年增长率高速成长。电动商用车(ECV)是专为货运、客运和工业作业等商业用途而设计的全电动或半电动运输车辆。这些车辆使用电动马达和可充电电池来取代传统的内燃机,从而降低燃料成本和排放气体。日益增长的环境问题、政府激励措施以及电池技术的进步正在推动电动商用车的普及,使其成为向更清洁、更永续的交通解决方案转型的重要组成部分。
根据国际能源总署 (IEA) 和国际清洁交通技术委员会 (ICCT) 的重型车辆数据,2023 年电动卡车销量大幅成长,年增约 35%。
政府透过法规和激励措施来推广零排放车辆
推动电动商用车普及的关键因素之一是政府严格的监管政策。例如,排放交易机制和主要都市地区全面禁止内燃机等政策,都对车队营运商提出了监管要求。此外,购车补贴、税额扣抵和充电基础设施津贴等丰厚的财政奖励,直接解决了前期成本高的问题。这些措施共同降低了企业的总拥有成本,并减轻了转型风险,使电动商用车成为一项经济可行且具有战略意义的未来投资。
昂贵的电池组
电动商用车市场面临的最大障碍仍然是电池组的高成本。电池组在整车价格中占比很高,使得许多中小车队营运商难以承担初始部署成本。此外,目前电池技术的能量密度有限,限制了车辆的续航里程和有效载荷能力,为远距和重载应用带来了营运挑战。儘管燃油和维护成本的节省不断增加,但这些经济和技术方面的障碍仍然阻碍电动商用车的市场普及。
快速充电网路的扩展
密集可靠的充电网路能够直接缓解里程焦虑,这对于时间紧迫的物流公司而言至关重要。此外,兆瓦级重型卡车充电技术的出现可以显着减少停机时间,并提高电动车在远距货运中的可行性。这项扩展的基础设施将有效开拓新的应用场景和营运模式,使更多车队营运商能够自信地实现全面电气化营运。
关键物资供应链中断
由于锂、钴和镍等关键电池材料的供应链波动性大且地理集中,市场面临持续的威胁。这种依赖使其极易受到价格飙升、贸易限制和政治不稳定的影响,而这些因素会直接导致生产延误和生产成本增加。此类干扰可能导致汽车价格上涨、供应减少,进而抑制市场成长动能。它们也可能使汽车製造商的生产目标落空,并损害商业化电气化的合理性。
疫情初期对电动商用车市场造成了沉重打击,导致工厂停工和供应链严重受阻,生产停滞。经济活动和资本投资的急剧下降迫使许多车队营运商推迟或取消新车订单。然而,这场危机也起到了催化剂的作用,加速了电子商务和最后一公里配送的长期发展趋势,从而增加了对轻型电动货车的需求。因此,随着供应链的恢復正常,在对城市物流和清洁交通的重新关注推动下,市场实现了强劲復苏。
预计在预测期内,轻型商用车(LCV)细分市场将占据最大的市场份额。
预计在预测期内,轻型商用车 (LCV) 细分市场将占据最大的市场份额,这主要得益于全球电子商务的蓬勃发展以及对高效「最后一公里」配送解决方案的需求。这些电动货车尤其适合城市环境,其低营运成本、零排放以及符合日益严格的城市法规等优势,使其具有极强的商业吸引力。此外,与重型卡车相比,它们的初始成本相对较低,充电要求也更为简便,这使得它们成为众多企业(从小规模企业到大型物流公司)实现电气化的最佳切入点。
预计燃料电池电动车(FCEV)细分市场在预测期内将呈现最高的复合年增长率。
由于燃料电池电动车 (FCEV) 解决了远距运输中纯电动卡车续航里程和加氢方面的瓶颈问题,预计在预测期内,FCEV 细分市场将实现最高成长率。 FCEV 具有加氢速度更快、续航里程更长的优势,使其成为区域货运和公车服务等高要求应用场景下可行的零排放解决方案。此外,各国政府和私人企业对绿色氢气生产和加氢基础设施的大量投资,也为该细分市场的快速商业化和未来扩张奠定了基础。
预计亚太地区将在预测期内占据最大的市场份额。中国在电动车的生产和普及方面仍然保持着无可争议的全球领先地位。这一优势得益于积极的政府监管、强有力的国家补贴以及成熟的国内电动车供应链。此外,印度和韩国等快速工业化国家也实施了各自的扶持政策以污染防治,这显着提升了该地区人口稠密的大都会圈对电动公车和轻型商用车的需求。
在预测期内,欧洲预计将呈现最高的复合年增长率,这主要得益于其全球最严格的法规结构。欧盟的「Fit for 55」计画及其在2035年禁止销售新的内燃机汽车的计划,正在推动该产业的快速转型。此外,各国政府的购车奖励措施和对公共充电网路的巨额投资,也有助于降低电动商用车的普及门槛。这种由上而下的监管压力,加上以永续性发展为导向的物流公司自下而上强劲的市场需求,共同为加速电动商用车的销售创造了极为有利的环境。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Electric Commercial Vehicle Market is accounted for $76.2 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $386.6 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 26.1% during the forecast period. Electric commercial vehicles (ECVs) are transport vehicles powered entirely or partly by electricity, designed for commercial use such as goods delivery, passenger transport, or industrial operations. These vehicles use electric motors and rechargeable batteries instead of traditional combustion engines, reducing fuel costs and emissions. Growing environmental concerns, government incentives, and advancements in battery technology are driving their adoption, making them an essential part of the shift toward cleaner and more sustainable transportation solutions.
According to the IEA and ICCT data on heavy vehicles, sales of electric trucks rose strongly in 2023 (≈35% y/y).
Government regulations and incentives promoting zero-emission vehicles
Stringent government mandates are the primary force accelerating the adoption of electric commercial vehicles. Policies like emissions trading schemes and outright bans on internal combustion engines in major urban areas are creating a regulatory imperative for fleet operators. Furthermore, substantial financial incentives, including purchase subsidies, tax rebates, and grants for charging infrastructure, are directly addressing the high upfront cost barrier. These initiatives collectively lower the total cost of ownership and de-risk the transition for businesses, making electric commercial vehicles a financially viable and strategically necessary investment for the future.
Expensive battery packs
The single most significant hurdle for the electric commercial vehicle market remains the high cost of battery packs. These units constitute a substantial portion of the vehicle's total price, making the initial acquisition cost prohibitively high for many small and medium-sized fleet operators. Additionally, the limited energy density of current battery technology can constrain vehicle range and payload capacity, creating operational challenges for long-haul or heavy-duty applications. This financial and technical burden continues to temper widespread market penetration despite growing operational savings on fuel and maintenance.
Expansion of fast-charging networks
A dense and reliable network directly mitigates range anxiety, a major concern for logistics companies managing tight delivery schedules. Moreover, the emergence of megawatt-level charging for heavy-duty trucks can drastically reduce downtime, making electric vehicles feasible for long-distance freight. This infrastructure expansion effectively unlocks new use cases and operational paradigms, encouraging more fleet operators to confidently electrify their entire operations.
Supply chain disruptions for critical materials
The market faces a persistent threat from volatile and geopographically concentrated supply chains for critical battery materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. This reliance creates vulnerability to price shocks, trade restrictions, and political instability, which can directly lead to manufacturing delays and increased production costs. Such disruptions can stifle the market's growth momentum by making vehicles more expensive and less accessible, potentially derailing automakers' production targets and undermining the economic case for electrification in the commercial sector.
The pandemic initially delivered a sharp blow to the electric commercial vehicle market, causing factory shutdowns and severe supply chain bottlenecks that halted production. A dramatic reduction in economic activity and capital expenditure led many fleet operators to delay or cancel new vehicle orders. However, the crisis also acted as a catalyst, accelerating the long-term trend towards e-commerce and last-mile delivery, which increased demand for light electric vans. Consequently, as supply chains normalized, the market experienced a robust recovery, propelled by this renewed focus on urban logistics and cleaner transportation.
The light commercial vehicles (LCVs) segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The light commercial vehicles (LCVs) segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period driven overwhelmingly by the global surge in e-commerce and the demand for efficient last-mile delivery solutions. These electric vans are ideally suited for urban environments where their lower operating costs, zero tailpipe emissions, and compliance with tightening city-center regulations provide a compelling business case. Furthermore, their relatively lower upfront cost and simpler charging requirements compared to heavier trucks make them the most accessible entry point into electrification for a vast number of small businesses and logistics giants alike.
The fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate as it addresses the critical range and refueling limitations of battery-electric trucks for long-haul transportation. FCEVs offer faster refueling times and longer ranges, making them a viable zero-emission solution for demanding applications like regional freight and bus services. Moreover, significant investments from governments and private entities into green hydrogen production and refueling infrastructure are laying the groundwork for this segment's rapid commercialization and future expansion.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share. China is functioning as the undisputed global leader in both production and adoption. This dominance is fueled by aggressive government mandates, strong national subsidies, and the presence of a mature domestic EV supply chain. Additionally, rapidly industrializing nations like India and South Korea are implementing their own supportive policies to combat extreme urban pollution, driving substantial demand for electric buses and light commercial vehicles across the region's dense metropolitan areas
Over the forecast period, the Europe region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR propelled by the world's most stringent regulatory framework. The EU's Fit for 55 packages and its impending 2035 ban on new ICE vehicles are forcing a rapid industry transition. Furthermore, national-level purchase incentives and heavy investment in public charging networks are actively mitigating adoption barriers. This cohesive top-down regulatory pressure, combined with strong bottom-up market demand from sustainability-focused logistics companies, creates a potent environment for accelerated electric commercial vehicle sales.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Electric Commercial Vehicle Market include BYD Company Limited, Daimler Truck Holding AG, AB Volvo, Traton SE, PACCAR Inc, Ford Motor Company, General Motors Company, Stellantis N.V., Isuzu Motors Limited, Hino Motors, Ltd., Tata Motors Limited, Ashok Leyland Limited, Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co., Ltd., NFI Group Inc., The Lion Electric Company, Iveco Group N.V., Hyundai Motor Company, and Rivian Automotive, Inc.
In October 2025, BYD Company Limited unveiled the BYD RACCO, a lightweight all-electric K-EV designed exclusively for the Japanese market, along with the SEALION 6 DM-i plug-in hybrid SUV, marking the company's dual "EV + PHEV" strategy in Japan. On the commercial vehicle front, BYD introduced the BYD T35, a light-duty all-electric truck tailored to Japanese regulations with a 250 km range and a payload capacity of about 1 ton, scheduled for release in spring 2026.
In August 2025, the battery-electric Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 continues to gain momentum in Europe. From Germany to Norway to Italy, from France to Romania - in recent months, Mercedes-Benz Trucks' electric flagship has been delivered to customers in more than 15 European countries. The eActros 600 is used in a variety of logistics transport applications - from classic long-distance transport to demanding special tasks. In the second quarter of 2025, Mercedes-Benz Trucks secured the top position in the zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle segment in Europe.
In October 2024, Volvo Group and Daimler Truck intend to create a joint venture to develop a common software-defined vehicle platform and dedicated truck operating system, "providing the basis for future software-defined commercial vehicles", the OEMs state in a press note that follows the announcement made in May this year. The two commercial vehicle industry players have now signed a binding agreement to establish the joint venture and are working towards setting up the company that will be headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.