全球电池供需预测：汽车各OEM（～2035年）

Chasm（需求断层），成为象征近几年的电动车市场成长停顿的言词。

关于造成需求断层的原因，有许多假设。有人指出，早期电动车用户已经购买完毕，导致新增需求放缓。另一种理论认为，去年冬季北美遭遇的严寒天气导致电动车续航里程大幅下降。此外，对反覆发生火灾事故的担忧也加剧了消费者对电动车的担忧。

本报告分析了全球电动车市场，并对主要OEM的电动车产量和电池供应进行了详细预测。报告还依地区、主要电池供应商、正极材料和电池类型预测了这些OEM电动车使用的二次电池来源。

目录

第1章 全球乘用EV市场预测

• 全球小客车电气化率预测
• 全球电动小客车的销售预测：各地区
• 全球电动小客车用电池需求预测：各地区
• 全球电动小客车和电池需求预测：各地区
• 全球电动小客车用电池需求：各正极材料

第2章 全球主要OEM的EV市场预测

• 全球主要OEM的电动小客车的销售预测
• 全球主要OEM的电动小客车的销售比率预测
• 全球主要OEM的电动小客车的销售的预测：各製造厂商
• 全球主要OEM的电动车用电池需求预测

第3章 全球主要OEM的EV市场预测：各製造厂商

• Tesla
• VW（Volkswagen）
• HKMC（Hyundai-Kia）
• Toyota
• R-N-M（Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance）
• Stellantis
• Ford
• GM
• BMW
• Mercedes-Benz
• Geely
• Honda
• BYD

Chasm has become a term symbolizing the recent stagnation in the growth of the electric vehicle market.

There are various hypotheses regarding the causes of this chasm. Some suggest that early adopters of EVs have already made their purchases, leading to a slowdown in new demand. Others attribute it to the significant reduction in EV driving range caused by the severe cold wave in North America last winter. Additionally, concerns about recurring fire incidents have contributed to consumer apprehension about EVs.

So, how will the market ultimately grow? In response to this question, SNE Research released its "<2024.2H> Global Electric Vehicle Market and Battery Supply-Demand Outlook (~2035)" last October.

However, industry stakeholders have requested more specific market forecasts, including expectations on which battery suppliers major OEMs will choose, changes in battery form factors, and the usage proportion of major cathode materials.

SNE Research has published this report to address these various industry inquiries. The newly released "<2025> Global Battery Supply and Demand Outlook by Automotive OEM (~2035)" provides a detailed forecast of electric vehicle production and battery supply for major OEMs, including Tesla, Volkswagen, Hyundai Motor Group, Toyota, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, Stellantis, Ford, GM, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Geely (the parent company of Volvo's passenger car division), and BYD. The report categorizes and forecasts the supply sources of secondary batteries used in these OEMs' electric vehicles by region (North America, Europe, China, and other markets), major battery suppliers, cathode materials (NCx/LFP), and form factors (prismatic, pouch, cylindrical).

The regional and cathode material data for the overall OEM electrification outlook is based on the figures from the "<2024.2H> Global Electric Vehicle Market and Battery Supply-Demand Outlook (~2035)" report, released in October.

We hope that this report, which provides a detailed forecast of major car makers leading the future electric vehicle market, will be valuable to industry stakeholders.

Table of Contents

1. Global Passenger EV Market Outlook

• 1.1. Global Passenger Vehicle Electrification Rate Outlook
• 1.2. Global Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Outlook by Region
• 1.3. Global Battery Demand Outlook for Electric Passenger Vehicles by Region
• 1.4. Global Electric Passenger Vehicle and Battery Demand Outlook by Region
• 1.5. Global Battery Demand for Electric Passenger Vehicles by Cathode Material

2. Global Major OEM EV Market Outlook

• 2.1. Global Major OEM Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Outlook
• 2.2. Global Major OEM Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Proportion Outlook
• 2.3. Global Major OEM Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Forecast by Manufacturer
• 2.4. Global Major OEM Battery Demand Outlook for Electric Passenger Vehicles

3. Global Major OEM EV Market Outlook by Manufacturer

• 3.1. Tesla
• 3.2. VW(Volkswagen)
• 3.3. HKMC(Hyundai-Kia)
• 3.4. Toyota
• 3.5. R-N-M(Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance)
• 3.6. Stellantis
• 3.7. Ford
• 3.8. GM
• 3.9. BMW
• 3.10. Mercedes-Benz
• 3.11. Geely
• 3.12. Honda
• 3.13. BYD