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市场调查报告书

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1343614

全球电池用金属锂市场（～2030年）

<2023> Battery Lithium Metal Report (~2030)

出版日期: 2023年08月11日 | 出版商:

SNE Research | 英文 168 Pages | 商品交期: 请询问到货日

价格

简介目录

2022年11月，由于供应短缺，碳酸锂价格上涨至50万元/吨。针对前所未有的碳酸锂价格，宁德时代向电动车整车厂提供每吨20万元的碳酸锂回馈。

然而，随着中国电动车补贴削减的消息传出以及电池製造商库存增加，碳酸锂的价格开始下跌，截至2023年4月暴跌至15万元/吨。

随着电动车时代的到来，二次电池占锂使用总量的比例将从2014年的40%增加到2023年的80%左右。因此，电动车市场越来越受到锂市场变化的影响。然而，采矿市场的交货时间长（挖掘和生产之间的週期）特征使其难以满足电动车市场成长对锂的高需求。受此影响，锂价波动加大，直接影响电动车製造商和二次电池製造商的利润率。

目前，锂矿开采仅在智利、澳洲等少数国家进行。然而，玻利维亚、伊朗、印度等国相继宣布发现庞大新锂矿床的消息，欧洲、非洲等多个国家也报告将开采锂。 SNE Research预测，2030年锂矿开采国家总数将达24个。

有关锂矿发现的报告引发了人们的希望，即这些矿藏足以满足电动车市场的需求，但这种假设是有缺陷的。勘探阶段可商业开采的矿量仅有少量，实际开采需要5至10年的漫长週期。除了全球储量的成长之外，锂矿企业和矿场的实际供应情况也需要密切监控。二次电池市场供给预测与需求平衡是预测未来上游市场策略与价格波动的重要手段。

本报告针对全球电池用金属锂市场进行研究分析，提供整体市场状况、各国政策策略、锂金属供需及价格预测等资讯。

中国锂市场
- 碳酸锂、氢氧化锂产能
- 碳酸锂产能：依地区划分（2022 年）
- 氢氧化锂产能：依地区划分（2022 年）
- 碳酸锂/氢氧化锂进出口情形（2022年）
智利锂市场
- 锂专案：按地区划分
- 碳酸锂和氢氧化锂出口
澳洲锂市场
- 碳酸锂和氢氧化锂出口
- 主要锂矿产区及项目
- 三大锂矿公司
阿根廷锂市场
- 锂出口和主要进口国家
- 主要锂矿产区及项目
巴西锂市场
- 主要矿山和出口路线
- 三大锂矿公司
津巴布韦的锂市场
- 主要锂项目

第 7 章锂材料现况及供需展望（2021-2030）

二次电池需求预测
正极材料化学成分展望
锂需求前景：以正极材料产品划分
锂需求前景：依行业划分
主要电池製造商的 Lium 使用前景
- 韩国
- 中国
- 日本
- 美国
- 欧盟
锂储量（2023 年）
全球锂供应
新增锂矿开采国家（2022/2030 年）
全球锂供应前景
锂材料供需平衡
基于供需平衡的未来锂供应情景，直至 2030 年
采矿业展望：依地区划分
- 澳大利亚
- 中国
- 南美洲
- 北美
- 欧洲
- 非洲

第 8 章製造商如何确保锂供应

世界电动车原始设备製造商
- GM
- Ford
- Stellantis
- Tesla
- Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, PPES
- Volkswagen
电池製造商
- Samsung SDI
- CATL
- BYD
- Northvolt

第 9 章锂价分析

供应合约中锂价格的结构
供应合约中的长期锂价格
卤水型与硬岩型加工成本比较
二次电池主要金属材料价格走势
碳酸锂价格趋势（2013-2023）
根据供需预测锂价格（截至 2030 年）

第 10 章锂矿开采：依国家

澳大利亚
智利
中国
玻利维亚
阿根廷
捷克语
印度

第 11 章原料厂商分析

Albemarle
SQM
Pilbara Minerals
Tianqi Lithium
Ganfeng Lithium

简介目录

Product Code: 205

In Nov 2022, the price of lithium carbonate rose to 500,000 yuan (about KRW 91,245,000) per ton due to shortage in supply. With such unprecedented price of lithium carbonate, CATL even offered lithium carbonate rebate of 200,000yuan (about KRW 36.5 million) per ton to electric vehicle OEMs.

However, the price of lithium carbonate began to fall as news has been spreading of China's reduced electric vehicle subsidies and increased inventory in battery manufacturers, and plunged to 150,000 yuan (about 27.37 million won) per ton as of Apr 2023.

With the advent of the electric vehicle era, the proportion of secondary batteries in the total lithium usage has increased from 40% in 2014 to about 80% in 2023. As such, the electric vehicle market has been increasingly influenced by the impact of changes in the lithium market. However, the long lead time (the time from mine excavation to production), the nature of the mining market, made it difficult to satisfy the increased lithium demand due to the growth of the electric vehicle market. As a result, volatility of lithium price is increasing and has direct impact on corporate margins of EV makers and secondary battery manufacturers.

Currently, lithium mining is taking place in a small number of countries, including Chile and Australia. However, news of discovery of huge amount of lithium deposits has been newly announced in countries such as Bolivia, Iran, and India, and several countries including Europe and Africa have reported that they will mine lithium. SNE Research predicts that there will be total 24 lithium mining countries in 2030.

Reports of the discovery of lithium mines are raising hopes that the deposits will fully meet the demand from the electric vehicle market, but there are errors in this assumption. Only a few mines are commercially viable in the stage of exploration, and there is long lead time of 5-10 years till actual mining. Apart from the increase in global reserves, the actual supply of the lithium mining companies and the mines should be closely monitored. The balance between supply forecast and demand in the secondary battery market will be an important means for future upstream market strategies and predicting price fluctuations.

This report describes the overall market status, policies and strategies by different countries, and prediction of supply, demand, and price for lithium metal. Especially, forecast of the lithium demand in this report provides specific figures for each battery manufacturer and each cathode material product. And also, the report forecasts lithium supply by considering the production volume of all mining projects. From these two figures, we create a model for demand-supply balance scenario and predict price till 2030.

We hope that the report will help readers understand the overall lithium metal industry and prepare for future fluctuations of lithium raw material by looking at the outlook provided by the insightful report of SNE Research.

The strong points of this report are;

Lithium production forecast and lithium policies of existing and new lithium mining countries till 2030

Outlook for how major battery manufacturers secure lithium and consumption of lithium till 2030

Outlook for chemical composition of cathode materials and lithium demand by product till 2030

^*LFP, Mid-Ni 523/622, High Ni NCM/NCMA Ni>80%, LCO, LCA, NMx, LMO, NCM 111/424.

A forecasting scenario of adjusted amount of lithium production based on supply and demand and the balance between supply and demand of lithium metal

Forecast of the lithium price based on processing cost and supply and demand in major mining countries till 2030

1. Overview of secondary batteries

1.1. What are secondary batteries?
1.2. Raw materials for secondary battery components
1.3. Cathode materials
- 1.3.1. Components
- 1.3.2. Content of major materials
- 1.3.3. Metal content (Kg/KWh)
- 1.3.4. Note) Mineral content per one electric vehicle

2. Overview of lithium metal

2.1. Overview of lithium
2.2. Applications and characteristics by product
- Note) Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
2.3. Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (Li2CO3,LCE)
2.4. Forms of natural deposit
2.5. Production ratio by ore type
2.6. Lithium usage ratio by industry

3. Lithium mining technology

3.1. Mining process - brine type
3.2. Mining process - hard-rock type
3.3. Technology development for lithium recovery
3.4. Process comparison of lithium extraction
- Note) Trends of recycling regulations in major countries
- Note) Risks of lithium ESG

4. Lithium policy by country

4.1. Lithium policy in China
4.2. Lithium policy in Central South America
- 4.2.1. Chile
- 4.2.2. Brazil
- 4.2.3. Argentina
- 4.2.4. Bolivia
- 4.2.5. Mexico
- Note) Latest lithium policy in Central South America
4.3. Lithium policy in Australia
4.4. Lithium policy in Europe
- 4.4.1. Portugal
- 4.4.2. UK
4.5. Lithium policy in Africa
- 4.5.1. Zimbabwe

5. Policy of major countries for key minerals

5.1. Lithium policy of major countries
5.2. Lithium policy of EU
5.3. Lithium policy of US
- Note) Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) & Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
5.4. Lithium policy of Japan
5.5. Lithium policy of Korea

6. Market status of major lithium producing countries

6.1. Lithium market in China
- 6.1.1. Production capacity of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
- 6.1.2. Capacity of production facilities of lithium carbonate by region (2022)
- 6.1.3. Capacity of production facilities of lithium hydroxide by region (2022)
- 6.1.4. Import/export of lithium carbonate/ lithium hydroxide in 2022
6.2. Lithium market in Chile
- 6.2.1. Lithium project by region
- 6.2.2. Export of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
6.3. Lithium market in Australia
- 6.3.1. Export of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide
- 6.3.2. Major regions of lithium deposits and projects
- 6.3.3. 3 major mining companies for lithium
6.4. Lithium market in Argentina
- 6.4.1. Export of lithium and major import countries
- 6.4.2. Major areas of lithium deposits and projects
6.5. Lithium market in Brazil
- 6.5.1. Major mines and export route
- 6.5.2. 3 major mining companies for lithium
6.6. Lithium market in Zimbabwe
- 6.6.1. Major lithium projects

7. Status for lithium material and outlook for supply/demand (2021-2030)

7.1. Outlook for secondary battery demand
7.2. Outlook for chemical composition of cathode materials
7.3. Outlook for lithium demand by cathode material product
7.4. Outlook for lithium demand by industry
7.5. Outlook for lithium usage by major battery makers
- 7.5.1. Korea
- 7.5.2. China
- 7.5.3. Japan
- 7.5.4. US
- 7.5.5. EU
7.6. Lithium reserves (2023)
7.7. Global lithium supply
7.8. New lithium mining countries in 2022 and 2030
7.9. Outlook for global lithium supply
7.10. Balance of supply/demand of lithium material
7.11. Future lithium supply scenario till 2030 based on balance of supply and demand
7.12. Outlook for mining by region
- 7.12.1. Australia
- 7.12.2. China
- 7.12.3. South America
- 7.12.4. North America
- 7.12.5. Europe
- 7.12.6. Africa
- Note) Demand forecasting methodology
- Note) Mineral development lead time
- Note) Development status of lithium mine plants

8. How manufacturers secure lithium supply

8.1. Global EV OEMs
- 8.1.1. GM
- 8.1.2. Ford
- 8.1.3. Stellantis
- 8.1.4. Tesla
- 8.1.5. Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, PPES
- 8.1.6. Volkswagen
8.2. Battery manufacturers
- 8.2.3. Samsung SDI
- 8.2.4. CATL
- 8.2.5. BYD
- 8.2.6. Northvolt

9. Analysis of lithium price

9.1. Structure of lithium price in supply agreement
9.2. Long-term lithium price in supply agreement
9.3. Comparison of processing cost of brine type and hard-rock type
- Note) Cost comparison of major mines in Australia
- Note) Cost comparison of major salt lakes in China
- Note) Cost analysis of lithium extraction from spodumene and lepidolite in China
9.4. Price trends of major metal materials for secondary batteries
9.5. Price trends of lithium carbonate (2013-2023)
9.6. Outlook for lithium price as per supply/demand till 2030