铜箔的技术趋势与市场预测(～2035年)

执行摘要

在电动车中，电池是最关键的部件之一，决定着汽车的性能、成本和安全性。电池的四个主要组成部分是正极、负极、电解液和隔膜。为了使这四个主要部件正常工作，正极和负极都必须使用集流体。铜箔通常用作负极的集流体。

电池目前用于电动车、储能系统 (ESS) 和 IT 应用。预计从 2021 年到 2035 年，电动车市场的复合年增长率将达到 19%，从而推动整个电池市场的发展。预计铜箔市场也将与电池市场同步成长。 2021年铜箔需求量约21万吨，预计2035年将达到176万吨，年复合成长率为15%。预计到2035年，电动车对铜箔的需求量将达到约138万吨，约占总需求量的77%。因此，未来储能系统（ESS）对铜箔的需求量也可能会增加。

铜箔的T值是从销售价格中减去材料成本（伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价）计算得出的。 T值会根据供需关係不断波动。据业内人士采访，2024年6微米宽铜箔的T值为4.3美元/公斤。该价格由激烈的市场竞争决定。一旦2025年下半年供需平衡恢復，预计T值将维持在6美元/公斤左右。基于此假设，预计到2035年，铜箔市场规模将大幅成长至267亿美元。

受区域管制和区域集团形成的影响，预计中国电动车和储能系统（ESS）的铜箔需求将从2021年的50%以上下降至2035年的44%。同时，预计北美和欧洲将透过扩大其国内电池产能引领铜箔需求。

截至2021年，中国占全球铜箔产量的72%，其次是韩国、马来西亚和其他地区，占23%。然而，从2025年起，预计欧洲和美国对铜箔的需求将会成长，预计这些地区的产能将持续扩张。

在供需方面，北美将继续面临供应短缺，因此预计将从其他地区寻求供应或进行本地投资。韩国和日本现有的铜箔公司正计划扩大在其他地区的产能，例如欧洲、美国和马来西亚。预计投资时机将根据当前市场情况灵活调整。全球电池製造商目前与一两家铜箔合作伙伴合作，并正在不断寻求增加合作伙伴数量。由于需要摆脱低成本和技术竞争激烈的中国市场，以及需要摆脱供应链的束缚，铜箔製造商正寻求与全球电池製造商紧密合作。此类合作可能因当地法规和品质要求而异。

铜箔约占电池单元成本的5%。虽然铜箔製造难度适中，但需要大量投资和技术专长，因此铜箔市场是一个由卖方主导的市场。

电解铜箔是市场上占主导地位的铜箔，其生产方法是将铜材料溶解在硫酸铜溶液中，然后使用电解机电解沉积铜。韩国和中国电池製造商对铜箔采购规格的要求相似。铜箔规格趋势表明，市场对更薄、更宽、更长的铜箔卷的需求不断增长。鑑于铜箔的成本结构，铜箔产业的竞争力取决于劳动成本、电力成本和折旧成本。马来西亚等东南亚地区由于劳动力和电力成本较低、初期良率相对较高以及铜箔製造技术的标准化和稳定性较高，提供了良好的投资机会。铜箔产品可依机械性能、厚度和宽度进行分类。近年来，电池製造商往往要求铜箔的抗拉强度超过50 kgf/mm²。随着SiOx/SiC等新型负极活性材料的日益普及，铜箔的物理性能和表面处理要求也发生了变化。本报告对全球铜箔市场进行了调查和分析，提供了有关铜箔技术、电动车和电池市场前景、需求和市场规模的资讯。

目录

摘要整理

用语

第1部分

• 铜箔技术
• LIB铜箔的理解
• 电池材料的成本结构
• 铜箔的定义与分类
• 铜箔技术目录
• 铜箔的规格
• 铜箔製造 - 溶解流程
• 铜箔製造 - 镀金流程
• 铜箔製造 - 切断流程
• 铜箔製造 - 生产流通量
  • 铜箔用语(生产能力，收穫率)
• 主要电池製造商电池技术蓝图(高级/入门级)
  • 铜箔製造 - 桶，相关厂商
  • 铜箔产品 - 主要用途与分类
  • 铜箔产品的变化和趋势
  • 铜箔的专利趋势:各国/各企业
  • 铜箔的专利趋势:各技术

第2部分

• EV市场
• 全球EV市场预测(小客车/商用车)
• 全球EV市场预测(小客车:各地区/各年度)
• 各地区EV市场成长率(小客车，～2035年)
• 全球EV市场预测(商用车:各地区/各年度)
• 电池市场
  • 电池市场:各用途(～2035年)
  • 电池市场:各地区(～2035年)
  • 预测:搭乘用EV各类型(～2035年)
• 电池生产能力
  • 生产能力:製造各地区(～2035年)
  • 生产能力:各主要企业(～2035年)
  • 全球电池需求/支援平衡(～2035年)

第3部分

• 铜箔市场
• 铜箔需求计算Logic
• 铜箔使用:各用途(～2035年)
• 铜箔需求:各用途(～2035年)
• 全球铜箔的市场规模
• 铜箔需求:各地区
• 铜箔生产能力
  • 铜箔生产能力:各企业(～2035年)
  • 铜箔生产能力:各地区(～2035年)
  • 铜箔供需平衡:各地区(～2035年)
  • 铜箔的价格预测
  • 铜箔供应链(2024年时刻的主要供应商)

第4部分

• 环保法规和替代材料的影响
• 复合铜箔
• 美国的IRA的影响
• CRMA的影响
• 投资网站
• 下一代电池的影响
  • 1. 全固体电池
  • 2. 钠离子电池

第5部分

• 主要企业
• *过去3年的销售额/营业利润
  • 1. SK Nexilis
  • 2. Doosan Solus
  • 3. Lotte Energy Materials
  • 4. Korea Zinc
  • 5. Nippon Denkai
  • 6. Wason
  • 7. Nuo De
  • 8. Jiayuan Technology
  • 9. Zhajiang Defu
  • 10. Chang Chun Group
  • 11. Taesung

Executive Summary

In electric vehicles, battery is one of the most critical components which determine the performance, cost, and safety of vehicle. The 4 major components in battery is cathode, anode, electrolyte, and separator. In order for these 4 major components to properly do their jobs, the use of current collector for both cathode and anode is necessary. For anode, copper foil is generally used as a current collector.

Battery is currently used for electric vehicles, energy storage system (ESS), and IT applications. If we look at the EV market, it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19% from 2021 and 2035, leading the entire battery market. In accordance with the growth of battery market, the copper foil market is also expected to grow. Demand for copper foil in 2021 was approx. 210k ton and is expected to continuously grow at a CAGR of 15% to 1.76 million ton by 2035. Copper foil demand for electric vehicles in 2035 is expected to be around 1.38 million ton, taking up about 77% of the entire demand. Along with this, ESS would also demand more copper foil in future.

In case of copper foil, T value is defined a value by subtracting material costs (copper price, based on LME) from the selling price. T value continuously fluctuates depending on supply/demand. In 2024, the T value for 6 micron, wide-width copper foil was found to be 4.3 $/kg from our interviews with the industry players. It is the price formed from fierce competitions in the market. From the latter half of 2025, it is expected that T value would be maintained at around 6$/kg when supply/demand balance would be made. Based on this assumption, the copper foil market is expected to significantly grow to US$26.7 billion in 2035.

Due to different regulations in regions and regional block formation, China's copper foil demand for electric vehicles and ESS is expected to drop to 44% in 2035 from over 50% in 2021. On the other hand, North America and Europe are expected to lead copper foil demand by expanding their local battery capacity.

As of 2021, China took up a large portion (72%) of global copper foil production, while Korea, Malysia, and other regions accounted for 23%. However, after 2025, there would be needs for copper foil from Europe and the US where continuous capacity ramp-up is expected.

In terms of supply/demand balance, North America would continuously experience a shortage in the region, and in order to address the shortage, it is forecasted to receive supply from other regions or make local investment in the region. The existing copper foil companies in Korea and Japan have their capacity expansion plans in Europe, the US, and other regions such as Malaysia. Depending on the current market situations, their investment timing would change flexibly, though. Global battery makers are currently working on cooperation with 1 or 2 copper foil partners and trying to continuously increasing the number of partners they are working with. Following the needs to escape from the Chinese market and supply chain, where competitions for low cost and technology are fierce, copper foil makers have been trying to work closely with global battery manufacturers. Their cooperation may differ and vary depending on local regulations and quality requirements.

Copper foil takes up approx. 5% of battery cell cost. The level of difficulty in manufacturing copper foil is medium, but as it requires quite a lot of investment and technical prowess, the copper foil market is regarded as market where sellers have the whip hand over buyers.

Copper foil in the market is mostly electrolytic copper foil made by dissolving copper materials into copper sulfate solution and electrodepositing copper in the solution by using electrolysis machine. The purchase specifications of copper foil required by Korean and Chinse battery makers are similar to each other. If we look at the trend in copper foil specifications, it is required to be thinner, wider, and longer in rolls. Based on the cost structure of copper foil, competitiveness in copper foil business can be determined by labor cost, electric charges, and depreciation cost. Countries in the Southeast Asian region such as Malaysia, of which labor cost and electricity charges are lower than others, are regarded as places where investment for copper foil business would be lucrative as it has become relatively easy to secure the yield at the initial stages and the copper foil manufacturing technology has gone through standardization and stabilization. The copper foil product group can be categorized by mechanical property, thickness and width. Recently, battery makers tend to require copper foil of which tensile strength is higher than 50 kgf/mm2. With the increasing adoption of new anode active materials such as SiOx/SiC, there have been requirements on changes in physical properties of copper foil and surface treatment.

Copper foil patents are mostly registered in China, followed by Japan, Taiwan, and the US. The Korean, Japanese, and Chinese companies take a leading role in patent application. If we look at the patents related to copper foil manufacturing, patents about adjusting physical properties of copper foil by changing additives or controlling the quantity of additives during the process are prevalent. Copper foil manufacturers are mostly Chinese, Korean, and Japanese. SK Nexilis and Lotter Energy Materials are increasing their production capacity in Malaysia first and considering possible capacity ramp-up in Europe and the US. Chinse copper foil companies are trying to secure their production capacity and customers in other regions than China based on their established competitiveness.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Terminology

Part-1

• Copper Foil Technology
• Understanding of LIB Copper Foil
• Cost Structure of Battery Materials
• Definition and Categorization of Copper Foil
• Copper Foil Technology Indexes
• Copper Foil Specifications
• Copper Foil Manufacturing - Dissolving process
• Copper Foil Manufacturing - Plating process
• Copper Foil Manufacturing -Slitting process
• Copper Foil Manufacturing - Production flow
  • Copper Foil Terminology (Capacity, Yield)
• Major Battery Makers' Battery Technology Roadmap (Premium / Entry-level)
  • Copper Foil Manufacturing - Drum and related manufacturers
  • Copper Foil Products - Major Purposes and Categorization
  • Changes and Trend in Copper Foil Products
  • Copper Foil Patent Trend (By country / By Company)
  • Copper Foil Patent Trend (By Technology)

Part-2

• EV Market
• Global EV Market Outlook (Passenger vehicle / Commercial vehicle)
• Global EV Market Outlook (Passenger vehicle - By Region / By year)
• Global EV Market Growth by Region (Passenger vehicle, ~'35)
• Global EV Market Outlook (Commercial vehicle - By Region / By year)
• Battery Market
  • Battery Market by Application (~'35)
  • Battery Market by Region (~'35)
  • Outlook by Passenger EV Type (~'35)
• Batrery Capacity
  • Capacity by Manufacturing Region (~'35)
  • Capacity by Major Companies (~'35)
  • Global Battery Demand / Support Balance (~'35)

Part-3

• Copper Foil Market
• Copper Foil Demand Calculation Logic
• Copper Foil Usage by Application (~'35, ton/GWh)
• Copper Foil Demand by Application (~'35, ton/GWh)
• Global Copper Foil Market Size (~'35, Bil. USD)
• Copper Foil Demand by Region (~'35, 10k ton)
• Copper Foil Capacity
  • Copper Foil Capacity by Company (~'35, 10k ton)
  • Copper Foil Capacity by Region (~'35, 10k ton)
  • Copper Foil Demand / Supply Balance by Region (~'35)
  • Copper Foil Price Outlook ('13~'35, $/kg, T-value-based)
  • Copper Foil Supply Chain (Main Suppliers as of 2024)

Part-4

• Influences from Environmental Regulations and Alternative Materials
• Composite Copper Foil
• Influences from the US IRA
• Influences from the CRMA
• Investment Site
• Influences from Next-Gen Battery
  • 1. All-Solid-State Battery
  • 2. Na-ion Battery

Part-5

• Major Companies
• *Past 3-Year Salas / Operating Profits
  • 1. SK Nexilis
  • 2. Doosan Solus
  • 3. Lotte Energy Materials
  • 4. Korea Zinc
  • 5. Nippon Denkai
  • 6. Wason
  • 7. Nuo De
  • 8. Jiayuan Technology
  • 9. Zhajiang Defu
  • 10. Chang Chun Group
  • 11. Taesung