全球电动车（xEV）及电池供需市场展望（至2035年）

正如预测的那样，北美电动车市场在第四季度出现下滑。

去年第四季度，美国电动车（纯电动车+插电式混合动力车）註册量约25.2万辆，与去年同期约44万辆相比下降了43.2%。

主要原因是川普政府提前终止了电动车税额扣抵政策。根据一项名为「一项宏伟法案」（One Big Beautiful Bill）的法案，美国在2025年第四季终止了原计划持续到2030年代初期的电动车税额扣抵激励措施。结果，原本预计2025年全球电动车市场以季度为基础增超过24%，但在第四季仅成长了8.4%。

包括美国在内的主要汽车市场的政策变化，使得预测电动车市场变得越来越困难。

本报告深入分析了全球电动车 (xEV) 市场，量化了电动车市场在持续的不确定性中不断增长的演变趋势，并提出了反映各种情景的数据驱动预测，包括川普政府结束时美国市场的新增长潜力。

目录

第一章 汽车总数

第二章：电动车与电池：按类型划分

• NCM 对 LFP
• 低压电气化展望
• 低压数据：由原始设备製造商提供
• OEM LV 预测：按地区划分
• OEM LV 预测：以阴极划分

第三章：电动车和电池

第四章：电动车比率：依地区划分

• 电动车普及率：按地区划分
• 电动车在低排放车辆的占比：按地区划分
  • 美国电动车在低排放车辆的占比
  • 北美地区电动车在低排放车辆的占比
  • 欧洲低排放车辆的电动车比例
  • 中国轻型车辆中电动车的比例
  • 日本电动车在低排放车辆的占比
  • 韩国轻型车辆的电动车占比
  • 亚洲轻型车辆中电动车的比例
  • 电动车在低排放车辆的占比 - 其他

第五章 公车概览：依地区划分

• 公车路线概览：按地区

第六章：赛道概览：依地区划分

• 追踪摘要：按地区

第七章：电池市场预测

• 电动车的平均电池容量
• 电池价格预测
• 电池市场预测

第八章：电池的供需

• 电池供电
• 电池产量：按地区划分
• 储能係统市场预测
• 供需
  • 供需关係（中国）
  • （中国以外地区的）供需关係
  • 供需关係（欧洲）
  • 供需关係（北美）

附录

The North American EV market recorded a decline in the fourth quarter, as previously anticipated.

In the fourth quarter of last year, EV (BEV + PHEV) registrations in the United States reached approximately 252 thousand units, marking a 43.2% decline compared to about 440 thousand units registered in the same period of the previous year.

The main cause was the early termination of EV tax credit policies under the second Trump administration. Through legislation named the "One Big Beautiful Bill," the United States discontinued EV tax credit benefits starting in 4Q '25, which had originally been scheduled to continue until the early 2030s. As a result, the global EV market, which had been growing by more than 24% YoY in quarterly figures during '25, recorded only 8.4% growth in the fourth quarter.

Due to policy changes in major automotive markets such as the United States, the EV market has become increasingly difficult to predict. In this report, SNE Research analyzes and quantifies the evolving dynamics of the EV market, which continues to grow despite ongoing uncertainties. The report presents data-driven projections reflecting various scenarios, including the possibility of renewed growth in the U.S. market toward the end of the Trump administration.

We hope that this report, reflecting key developments in the EV market, will be helpful to industry stakeholders.

Table of Contents

1. Car Total

2. EV & Battery by Type

• 2.1 NCMvsLFP
• 2.2 LV Electrification Outlook
• 2.3 LV data by OEM
• 2.4 OEM LV forecast by Region
• 2.5 OEM LV forecast by Cathode

3. EV & Battery by

4. EV Portion by Region

• 4.1 EV Portion by Region
• 4.2 LV Car EV Portion by Region
  • 4.3.1 LV Car EV Portion_USA
  • 4.3.2 LV Car EV Portion_NA
  • 4.3.3 LV Car EV Portion_EU
  • 4.3.4 LV Car EV Portion_CN
  • 4.3.5 LV Car EV Portion_JP
  • 4.3.6 LV Car EV Portion_KR
  • 4.3.7 LV Car EV Portion_Asia
  • 4.3.8 LV Car EV Portion_Others

5. Bus by Region Summary

• 5.1 Bus by Region Summary

6. Truck by Region Summary

• 6.1 Truck by Region Summary

7. Battery Market forecast

• 7.1 EV average Battery Capa
• 7.2 Battery Price forecast
• 7.3 Battery Market forecast

8 Battery Demand & Supply

• 8.1 Battery Supply
• 8.2 Battery Prod by Region
• 8.3 ESS Market forecast
• 8.4 Demand & Supply
  • 8.4.1 Demand & Supply(China)
  • 8.4.2 Demand & Supply(Non China)
  • 8.4.3 Demand & Supply(Europe)
  • 8.4.4 Demand & Supply(NAme)

Appendix

• PV by Region
• Truck by Region
• Bus by Region
• Battery Design Capa
• Battery Real Capa