DRAM/NAND快闪记忆体资本支出（2026）：人工智慧驱动的重新评估与产能限制

人工智慧正在推动记忆体需求激增，促使人们重新评估资本支出。然而，洁净室空间的限制以及从单纯的产能扩张转向先进技术，预计将限制未来比特产量的成长。儘管设备供应商表示乐观，但记忆体技术面临的挑战日益严峻。

主要亮点：

• 儘管最初的预测较为谨慎，但不断增长的人工智慧需求正在推动记忆体资本支出的上调。
• DRAM投资优先考虑先进製程和HBM产能扩张，而无尘室空间的限制将限制比特产量的成长。
• NAND快闪记忆体的资本支出正转向混合键结和增加堆迭层数，但不同供应商的策略各不相同。
• 受人工智慧储存和云端服务供应商迁移的推动，NAND快闪记忆体的需求出现了结构性缺口，但製造商对近期扩张仍持谨慎态度。
• 储存设备供应商对人工智慧驱动的需求持乐观态度，同时强调先进记忆体日益增长的复杂性和高技术门槛。
• 整个产业的投资正从传统的位元密度扩展转向製程升级和高附加价值产品，预计未来位元密度的成长将受到限制。

目录

第一章：儘管人工智慧需求激增，但储存产业对2026年的资本支出展望仍保持保守。

• 主要DRAM和NAND快闪供应商的资本支出

第二章：DRAM资本支出概述：重点在于1C与1-Gamma製程过渡以及HBM相关产能扩充

• DRAM产业年度资本支出与位元供应成长
• DRAM供应商晶圆厂扩张计画

  第三章：NAND快闪资本支出－优先考虑高阶产品和QLC，整体水准较保守

  • NAND快闪记忆体产业资本支出与位元供应成长

  第四章：设备供应商对AI驱动的需求持乐观态度。

  记忆体技术极限将持续提升

  第五章：2026年DRAM和NAND快闪记忆体位成长将受到限制，因为投资将主要转向先进技术

AI drives surging memory demand, prompting capex revisions. However, limited cleanroom space and a shift to advanced tech over raw capacity will constrain future bit output growth. Equipment vendors are optimistic, yet memory tech hurdles rise.

Key Highlights:

• Strong AI demand is leading to upward revisions in memory capital expenditure, despite initial conservative outlooks.
• DRAM investments prioritize advanced processes and HBM capacity expansion, though cleanroom space limitations constrain bit output growth.
• NAND Flash capex shifts towards hybrid bonding and higher layer counts, with varying strategies among suppliers.
• NAND Flash demand, fueled by AI storage and cloud provider shifts, represents a structural shortage; however, manufacturers remain cautious about immediate expansion.
• Memory equipment suppliers are optimistic about AI-driven demand, highlighting the increasing complexity and high technical hurdles in advanced memory.
• Overall industry investment is transitioning from traditional bit capacity expansion to process upgrades and high-value products, resulting in limited future bit growth.

Table of Contents

1. Memory Industry Still Maintains Conservative Capex Outlook for 2026 as AI Drives Demand Surge; There Is Potential for Upward Revisions

• Major DRAM and NAND Flash Suppliers' Respective Capex Figures

2. Overview of DRAM Capex: Focus Will Be on Migrations to 1C and 1-Gamma Processes and HBM-Related Capacity Expansions

• DRAM Industry's Annual Capex and Supply Bit Growth
• DRAM Suppliers' Fab Expansion Plans

3. Capex on NAND Flash - Overall Level Remains Conservative with Priority Set for Higher Layers and QLC

• NAND Flash Industry Capex and Supply Bit Growth

4. Equipment Providers Optimistic on AI-Driven Demand; Technical Threshold of Memory to Elevate Continuously in the Future

5. DRAM and NAND Flash Restricted in Bit Growth for 2026 as Investment Shifts to Mostly Advanced Technologies