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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1955538
智慧型手机产量或将下降超过15%：2026年记忆体价格飙升将引发成本上涨风暴Smartphone Production May Drop Over 15%: 2026 Memory Surge Ignites Cost Storm |
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受人工智慧伺服器和高效能运算强劲需求的推动，记忆体市场在2025年下半年进入了价格超级週期。记忆体成本上涨迫使各大厂商提高终端产品价格，并缩减低端机型以应对成本压力。在此背景下，预计2026年全球智慧型手机产量将年减约15%，在悲观情境下甚至可能进一步下降。然而，鑑于持续的供应短缺和价格上涨的迹象，大多数厂商选择维持现有供应商的采购量以确保资源供应。值得注意的是，这波记忆体价格上涨正在推高各种电子设备的零售价格，进一步加剧了消费性电子产品的通膨风险。
主要亮点
- 2026年第一季记忆体价格上涨速度超过2025年第四季，全年上涨趋势未见放缓迹象。自2025年第三季以来，累计价格涨幅远超预期，成本飙升可能进一步加剧智慧型手机产能的下滑。
- 智慧型手机产业的毛利率本来就较低，品牌难以消化这些成本上涨，也难以透过削减行销预算来因应。因此，他们被迫透过提高零售价格、减少低端机型比例以及调整高端、中端和低端产品组合来维持营运。
- 儘管整个智慧型手机产业面临下行压力，但大多数品牌仍选择维持现有的长期协议（LTA）。此举旨在确保在价格持续上涨和供应紧张的情况下，未来的配额和可用资源。
- 此次记忆体价格超级週期主要影响中低阶产品和高度依赖单一市场的品牌。在悲观情境下，2026年全球智慧型手机总产量可能面临约15%或更多的下调。
- 此记忆体价格超级週期透过各种电子设备的价格调整向下游扩散，进而对整个消费性电子产业造成更广泛的通膨压力。
目录
第一章：随着记忆体价格持续上涨，智慧型手机产量或将在2026年继续下降
- 智慧型手机记忆体价格预测
第二章：内存供需仍受限，但智慧型手机长期授权协定（LTA）尚未调整
第三章：记忆体价格上涨对中低阶机型衝击最大，成本压力也最大
- 智慧型手机产量预测
第四章：记忆体价格超级週期上涨或将为消费性电子产品带来通膨风险
Driven by robust demand for AI servers and high-performance computing, the memory market has entered a super-cycle of price hikes starting from 2H25. Escalating memory costs are forcing brands to raise end-device prices and scale back low-end models to cope with cost pressures. Against this backdrop, the year-on-year decline in global smartphone production for 2026 could widen to approximately 15%, or potentially even higher, under a pessimistic scenario. However, given the absence of signals indicating a halt in price increases and persistent supply tightness, most brands are choosing to maintain their established procurement volumes with suppliers to secure resource allocations. It is noteworthy that this wave of memory price increases is driving up the retail prices of various electronic devices, further evolving into a broader risk of consumer electronics inflation.
Key Highlights
- Memory price hikes in 1Q26 are expected to surpass those of 4Q25, with no signs of the rally stalling for the remainder of the year. The cumulative price increase since 3Q25 has far exceeded expectations, leading to surging costs that threaten to further exacerbate the deterioration of smartphone production performance.
- Given that smartphone gross margins are already thin, brands can no longer absorb these costs or compress marketing budgets to cope. Consequently, they are forced to maintain operations by raising retail prices, reducing the proportion of low-end models, and restructuring their high, mid, and low-end product mixes.
- Despite the downward pressure facing the overall smartphone industry, most brands are opting to uphold their existing Long-Term Agreements (LTAs). Amidst unceasing price hikes and continued supply tightness, this strategy aims to secure future quotas and available resources.
- This memory super-cycle is primarily impacting mid-to-low-end products and brands highly dependent on single markets. Under a pessimistic scenario, total global smartphone production volume in 2026 faces a potential downward revision of approximately 15%, or even steeper.
- The super-cycle of memory price increases is cascading downstream through price adjustments across various electronic devices, diffusing into more comprehensive inflationary pressure within the consumer electronics sector.
Table of Contents
1. Smartphone Production Could Continue to Deteriorate in 2026 amidst Incessant Price Hikes on Memory
- Smartphone Memory Price Forecast
2. No Adjustments to LTAs among Smartphone Yet under Unchanged Constraints in Memory Supply and Demand
3. Soaring Memory Prices Hit Mid-to-Low-End Models Hardest, Placing Them Under Greatest Cost Pressure
- Smartphone Production Forecast
4. Memory Super-Cycle Price Hikes May Trigger Inflation Risks in Consumer Electronics
