无线基础设施（2024年第4季、2024年度、2025年2月）

本报告深入了解了2024年第四季的全球无线基础设施市场，提供了2016年至2024年的历史资料、2G/3G/4G/5G RAN（包括开放式 vRAN）和核心网路（EPC、vEPC、5GC）各地区的季市场规模和供应商市场占有率，以及到2030年的详细市场预测。

目录

摘要

关键要点：2024年第四季表现强劲，但全年下滑；最糟糕的时期已经过去

2024年第四季的强劲表现不足以让公司重回全年成长区间，但最糟糕的时期已经过去

• 北美在本季处于领先地位，就像2024年第三季一样
• Open RAN、5G 和 EPC 是所有类别中表现最亮眼的
• 4G 支出的急剧下降将导致市场规模比在2024年的预测低15亿美元，而 5G 的强劲动力不足以抵消这一影响
• 儘管推出速度缓慢，但 5G 仍然是一个亮点
• Nokia将在2024年第四季抢占市场占有率，而排名第一的华为和第二位的Ericsson则会遭遇损失
• 在核心网路领域，华为和中兴通讯合计占据 60%的市场占有率，而Ericsson则保持第二位
• 2024年，华为将继续领先整个市场占有率，其次是Ericsson，两家公司的市场占有率都在扩大。

正如正确预测的那样，2024年是撤资週期的第三年，2025年将是撤资週期的第三年

• 与 4G 一样，5G 也有很长的后劲
• 但与以往的週期不同的是，没有新的G来产生新的投资週期。
• 2025年前景看好

对长期无线基础设施市场的预测显示，市场略有下滑

• 目前的情况表明，未来 10年将逐渐下降。
• 随着中国供应商从某些国家撤退，二手 4G/5G 设备市场将会蓬勃发展并压倒其他市场。
• 经过一段时间的停顿，Open RAN 将于今年全面推出
• 亚太地区拥有世界上最大的无线网路，并将继续成为最大的市场
• 北美仍为全球第二大市场
• 预计欧洲、中东和非洲今年将实现成长，然后在2030年缓慢下降
• 加勒比海地区和拉丁美洲復苏，预计将进一步成长

This report analyzes the 4Q24 wireless infrastructure market worldwide and covers 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G radio access network (RAN) and core network nodes. It presents historical data from 2016 to 2024, quarterly market size and vendor market shares, and a detailed market forecast through 2030 for 2G/3G/4G/5G RAN, including Open vRAN, and core networks (EPC, vEPC, and 5GC), for each region (North America, Europe Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, Caribbean Latin America). The historical data accounts for the sales of more than 30 wireless infrastructure vendors, including a few vendors that shared confidential sales data with TERAL RESEARCH. The market forecast is based on a model correlating wireless infrastructure vendor sales with 20 years of service provider network rollout pattern analysis, and upgrade and expansion plans.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS: SOLID 4Q24 BUT FULL YEAR DOWN, THE WORST IS BEHIND

THE ROBUST 4Q24 WAS NOT ENOUGH TO BRING BACK THE FULL YEAR TO GROWTH TERRITORY BUT

THE WORST IS BEHIND

• LIKE IN 3Q24, NORTH AMERICA MADE THE QUARTER
• OPEN RAN, 5G AND EPC WERE THE BRIGHTEST SPOTS OF ALL CATEGORIES
• A SHARP 4G SPENDING DROP SUNK THE 2024 MARKET $1.5B BELOW OUR FORECAST; 5G WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET IT
• EVEN WITH A SLOWER PACE OF ROLLOUTS, 5G REMAINS THE BRIGHT SPOT
  • A faster migration to 5G SA is greatly desired
  • The potential for LTE-A and VoLTE upgrades remains phenomenal
• IN 4Q24, NOKIA INCREASES ITS SHARE AT THE EXPENSE OF #1 HUAWEI AND #2 ERICSSON
  • For 4Q24 RAN market share, both huawei and Ericsson lost share
• IN CORE NETWORKS, HUAWEI AND ZTE COMBINED COMMAND A 60% MARKET SHARE, ERICSSON STAYED #2
  • The prolonged slow migration to 5G SA is over, a PICKUP started in 3Q24 and new contracts were awarded in 4Q24
  • We did such a good work in designing the EPC that the move to 5G core is hard to justify!
• FOR 2024 TOTAL MARKET SHARE, HUAWEI STAYED #1 FOLLOWED BY ERICSSON, BOTH INCREASED THEIR SHARE

AS RIGHTLY PREDICTED, 2024 WAS THE THIRD YEAR OF THE DISINVESTMENT CYCLE, 2025 WILL BE UP

• LIKE 4G, 5G WILL HAVE A LONG TAIL...
• ...BUT UNLIKE PREVIOUS CYCLES, THERE IS NO NEW G TO CREATE A NEW INVESTMENT CYCLE
  • Although 5G remains the bright spot, it won't be big enough to offset the 4G decline
  • Factoring in the 4G decline, our model produced a lower base forecast
• 2025 IS LOOKING UP!
  • North America will experience the strongest growth this year
  • Post-5G peak, all other regions will see moderate growth or flatness

OUR LONG-TERM WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET FORECAST POINTS TO A SLIGHT DECLINING TREND

• Current conditions point to a slowly declining pattern through the end of the decade
• FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE VIBRANT SECONDHAND MARKET FOR 4G AND 5G EQUIPMENT COMING FROM THE REMOVAL OF THE CHINESE VENDORS IN SPECIFIC COUNTRIES THAT SWAMPS OTHER MARKETS
  • With Germany gearing up to remove Huawei's 5G equipment, we expect another cycle of used kits to flood the secondhand market in 2025-2026
• AFTER THE PAUSE, OPEN RAN WILL START TO RAMP UP THIS YEAR
  • Geopolitics fueled both the open RAN ecosystem and traditional 5G RAN rollouts led by Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung
• HOME TO THE WORLD'S LARGEST WIRELESS NETWORK FOOTPRINTS, ASIA PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE LARGEST MARKET
• NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET
• AFTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, EMEA WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH 2030
• CALA IS BOUNCING BACK WITH POTENTIAL GROWTH AHEAD