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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1934272
葡萄干市场-全球产业规模、份额、趋势、机会和预测:按类型、干燥方法、最终用户、分销管道、地区和竞争格局划分,2021-2031年Raisins Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Type, By Drying Method, By End User, By Distribution Channel, By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F |
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全球葡萄干市场预计将从 2025 年的 30.2 亿美元成长到 2031 年的 46.7 亿美元,复合年增长率达到 7.54%。
葡萄干是一种营养丰富且保质期长的食品,主要由欧洲葡萄製成,采用日晒或机械脱水工艺生产。市场成长的根本动力在于全球对功能性植物来源零食的需求不断增长,消费者越来越倾向于选择高纤维、天然甜味的食品,而非加工食品。此外,烘焙和糖果甜点行业对葡萄干的持续工业需求也推动了市场发展,葡萄干在这些行业中是一种重要的洁净标示原料。根据国际坚果和干果理事会(INDFC)预测,2024/2025年度全球干果产量预计将达324万吨,其中葡萄干占比最大,占消费量的39%。
| 市场概览 | |
|---|---|
| 预测期 | 2027-2031 |
| 市场规模:2025年 | 30.2亿美元 |
| 市场规模:2031年 | 46.7亿美元 |
| 复合年增长率:2026-2031年 | 7.54% |
| 成长最快的细分市场 | 在线的 |
| 最大的市场 | 欧洲 |
儘管存在这些有利因素,但市场本身对气候变迁的脆弱性构成了重大障碍。诸如关键旱季的异常降雨或长期干旱等不可预测的天气事件,会显着降低作物产量并损害产品品质。这种对有利环境条件的依赖导致供应链的不确定性和价格波动,从而对市场的持续扩张构成重大阻碍,尤其是在对价格敏感的发展中地区。
烘焙和糖果甜点产业的成长是市场扩张的主要驱动力,带动了对葡萄干这种功能性原料的稳定供应的需求。製造商利用葡萄干的天然保湿特性来延长烘焙点心的保质期,同时将其作为洁净标示的糖替代品,广泛应用于饼干、麵包和传统酥皮点心。这种产业依赖性也体现在全球贸易格局中,麵包消费量高的地区积极采购原料以维持生产。例如,根据美国农业部海外农业局2024年12月发布的《葡萄干年度报告》,预计2023/24财年中国对欧盟的葡萄干出口将增加436%。这一增长主要是由于欧洲烘焙加工业需要填补供应缺口。
同时,全球消费者对更健康、机能性食品的需求趋势正在转变,偏好从加工糖转向更营养的天然替代品。葡萄干作为一种方便、富含膳食纤维的零食,正日益受到欢迎,它符合植物来源食品的潮流,并在註重健康的市场中占据了较高的价格。根据国际坚果和干果理事会2025年3月发布的《世界统计评论》,土耳其无籽葡萄干对英国的出口额增长了60%,达到7760万美元,这表明消费者对优质水果的需求强劲。满足这项需求需要在主要产区进行大规模生产。根据美国农业部国家农业统计局2025年11月发布的《核桃、葡萄干和西梅生产州概况》,2024年从加州种植者采购的葡萄干数量为210368吨。
全球葡萄干市场面临的一大障碍是其对气候变迁的敏感性,气候变迁削弱了供应链的可靠性,并导致价格剧烈波动。由于优质葡萄干的生产高度依赖自然日晒干燥过程,因此,诸如收穫期间的异常降雨或长期干旱等突发性环境变化,会迅速降低作物品质并大幅减少产量。这种对有利天气的依赖意味着,主要产区的恶劣天气会迅速导致供不应求,难以保证向关键产业伙伴的稳定供应。
这种不确定性造成了动盪的商业环境,抑制了长期投资和扩张,尤其是在对价格敏感的发展中市场。随着供应趋紧和价格上涨,烘焙和糖果甜点行业的製造商往往被迫转向更稳定的合成甜味剂或其他水果原料。近期库存数据显示,这种波动性十分严重。根据国际坚果和干果理事会(INDFC)的数据,由于过去几季受天气影响导致产量下降,2024年无籽葡萄干的期初库存下降了49%。缓衝库存的快速下降削弱了市场应对未来供应中断的能力,直接阻碍了市场的稳定成长。
机械化采摘技术(例如「藤上晾晒」(DOV))的采用,从根本上改变了葡萄干的生产经济模式,缓解了劳动力短缺问题,提高了产量稳定性。种植者正越来越多地从传统的手工采摘转向棚架式种植系统,使葡萄在机械采摘前能够自然风干。这种转变显着降低了管理成本,并减少了人为污染的风险。这种现代化措施使得葡萄干的生产能够持续成长并扩充性,即使在气候变迁的影响下,也能确保供应满足产业需求,同时避免了手工采摘带来的产量波动。根据红日葡萄干公司2024年12月发布的第七份报告,预计2025年南非葡萄干产量将年增8%,为市场增加约7,500公吨。这种成长动能主要归功于这些高效农业实践的成功应用。
同时,随着製造商寻求精製糖的替代品,葡萄干作为天然甜味剂在洁净标示产品中的应用正在加速。谷物和烘焙业正在使用葡萄干酱和浓缩液来保持最终产品的水分和口感,同时仍能宣称「不添加糖」。在有着严格减糖目标的市场,这一趋势尤其明显,因为供应商正在调整其出口策略,以瞄准高价值市场并获得更高的利润。根据Fruitnet网站2025年3月发表的一篇报导《儘管天气不利,南非葡萄干产业依然增长》,预计2024年南非对英国的葡萄干出口量将达到9326吨,远高于四年平均。这主要归功于英国加工商越来越倾向于使用功能性糖替代品。
The Global Raisins Market is projected to expand from USD 3.02 Billion in 2025 to USD 4.67 Billion by 2031, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 7.54%. Raisins, which are dried grapes primarily of the Vitis vinifera variety, are produced using sun-drying or mechanical dehydration methods to create a nutrient-rich, shelf-stable food item. This market growth is fundamentally underpinned by the increasing global demand for functional, plant-based snacks, as consumers increasingly choose high-fiber, naturally sweet options over processed alternatives. Additionally, the market is strengthened by sustained industrial demand from the bakery and confectionery sectors, where raisins are utilized as essential clean-label ingredients. According to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, global dried fruit production reached 3.24 million metric tons during the 2024/2025 season, with dried grapes accounting for the largest share of consumption at 39 percent.
| Market Overview | |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2027-2031 |
| Market Size 2025 | USD 3.02 Billion |
| Market Size 2031 | USD 4.67 Billion |
| CAGR 2026-2031 | 7.54% |
| Fastest Growing Segment | Online |
| Largest Market | Europe |
Despite these positive drivers, the market faces a significant obstacle due to its inherent sensitivity to climatic volatility. Unpredictable weather events, such as unseasonal rain during the critical drying period or extended droughts, can severely reduce crop yields and degrade product quality. This reliance on favorable environmental conditions leads to supply chain unpredictability and price instability, presenting a substantial barrier to consistent market expansion, especially in price-sensitive developing regions.
Market Driver
The growth of the bakery and confectionery sectors serves as a primary engine for market expansion, driving the need for consistent supplies of raisins as functional ingredients. Manufacturers are increasingly leveraging the natural humectant qualities of raisins to extend the shelf life of baked goods, while also using them as clean-label sugar substitutes in cookies, breads, and traditional pastries. This industrial reliance is reflected in global trade patterns, where regions with high bakery consumption aggressively source raw materials to sustain production. For instance, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service's 'Raisin Annual' report from December 2024 notes that China's raisin exports to the European Union increased by 436 percent in the 2023/24 marketing year, a surge largely driven by the need to fill supply gaps in the European bakery processing industry.
Concurrently, shifting global consumption patterns toward healthy and functional snacks are moving preferences away from processed sugars in favor of naturally nutritious alternatives. Raisins are gaining popularity as a convenient, high-fiber snack that fits well with plant-based trends, allowing them to command higher prices in health-conscious markets. According to the 'Global Statistical Review' published by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council in March 2025, the export value of Turkish seedless raisins to the United Kingdom rose by 60 percent to US$77.6 million, demonstrating robust consumer demand for high-quality fruit. Meeting this demand requires substantial production from key regions; the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service reported in its November 2025 'Walnut/Raisin/Prune Report State Summary' that 210,368 tons of raisins were purchased from California producers for the 2024 crop year.
Market Challenge
The primary hurdle impeding the Global Raisins Market is its acute vulnerability to climatic volatility, which disrupts supply chain reliability and causes significant price instability. Because the production of high-quality raisins relies heavily on natural sun-drying processes, sudden environmental changes-such as unseasonal rainfall during harvest or prolonged droughts-can rapidly deteriorate crop quality and severely reduce yields. This inherent dependence on favorable weather means that adverse conditions in major producing regions often result in immediate supply deficits, making it difficult for suppliers to guarantee consistent delivery volumes to key industrial partners.
This unpredictability fosters a volatile commercial environment that discourages long-term investment and expansion, particularly within price-sensitive developing markets. When supplies tighten and prices rise, manufacturers in the bakery and confectionery sectors are often prompted to switch to more stable synthetic sweeteners or alternative fruit ingredients. The severity of this instability is highlighted by recent inventory data; according to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, beginning stocks of seedless dried grapes fell by 49 percent in 2024 due to weather-induced production shortfalls in previous seasons. Such a sharp reduction in buffer stocks leaves the market with minimal resilience against future disruptions, directly stalling steady market growth.
Market Trends
The adoption of Dried-on-Vine (DOV) mechanized harvesting methods is fundamentally transforming production economics by alleviating labor shortages and improving yield reliability. Producers are increasingly shifting from traditional hand-picking to trellis-based systems that allow grapes to dry naturally before mechanical collection, a transition that significantly lowers overhead costs and reduces physical contamination risks. This modernization enables sustained output growth and scalability despite climatic variations, ensuring supply meets industrial requirements without the volatility associated with manual labor. As reported by Redsun Raisins in 'Report 7' from December 2024, the 2025 South African raisin crop is projected to increase by 8 percent over the prior year, adding approximately 7,500 metric tons to the market, a resilience largely credited to the successful implementation of these efficient agricultural practices.
Simultaneously, the integration of raisins as natural sweeteners in clean-label formulations is gaining momentum as manufacturers seek alternatives to refined sugars. The cereal and bakery industries are utilizing raisin paste and concentrates to achieve "no added sugar" claims while maintaining moisture and texture in end products. This trend is particularly strong in markets with strict sugar-reduction targets, compelling suppliers to tailor their export strategies toward these high-value destinations to capture premium margins. According to a March 2025 article in Fruitnet titled 'South African raisin sector grows despite weather hit,' export volumes to the United Kingdom reached 9,326 tons in 2024, significantly outperforming the four-year average as British processors increasingly prioritize functional, sugar-alternative ingredients.
Report Scope
In this report, the Global Raisins Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:
Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Raisins Market.
Global Raisins Market report with the given market data, TechSci Research offers customizations according to a company's specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report: