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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1941131
商用飞机市场-全球产业规模、份额、趋势、机会及预测(按飞机类型、发动机类型、应用、最终用途、地区和竞争格局划分,2021-2031年)Commercial Aircraft Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Aircraft Type, By Engine Type, By Application, By End Use, By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F |
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全球民航机市场预计将从 2025 年的 1,720.5 亿美元成长到 2031 年的 2,366.9 亿美元,年复合成长率为 5.46%。
民航机市场(指航空公司营运的用于运送乘客和货物的固定翼飞机)预计将主要受益于全球航空旅行需求的復苏而成长。此外,航空公司面临着用更节能的飞机替换老旧飞机并降低营运成本的营运压力。同时,新兴地区的经济成长提高了可支配收入,刺激了客运需求,并促使网路型航空公司扩大机队规模。
| 市场概览 | |
|---|---|
| 预测期 | 2027-2031 |
| 市场规模:2025年 | 1720.5亿美元 |
| 市场规模:2031年 | 2366.9亿美元 |
| 复合年增长率:2026-2031年 | 5.46% |
| 成长最快的细分市场 | 窄体飞机 |
| 最大的市场 | 亚太地区 |
然而,持续的供应链中断造成了许多挑战,包括生产计画延误和新飞机交付延迟。这些物流瓶颈阻碍了製造商充分利用航空旅行的强劲復苏。根据国际航空运输协会(IATA)的数据,2024年10月,旅客周转量营收年增7.1%。儘管如此,不断增长的服务需求与受限的製造能力之间持续存在的差距仍然是限制整个产业扩张的一大障碍。
全球航空客运量和旅行需求的激增正成为全球商用飞机市场的主要驱动力,促使网路型航空公司扩大机队运力以应对日益增长的航线密度。随着国际边境全面开放和消费者信心的恢復,航空公司正优先购买新飞机,以满足休閒和商务旅客数量的显着增长。这种旅行需求给製造商带来了巨大压力,迫使其加快休閒和宽体飞机的生产速度,以避免高需求航线出现飞机短缺。根据国际航空运输协会(IATA)于2024年6月发布的《世界航空运输展望》,预计2024年全球客运量将达到49.6亿人次,超过疫情前的水准。这促使航空公司积极增加订单,以确保交付时刻。
同时,随着营运商寻求降低可变成本并实现永续性目标,以更节能的飞机加速替换老旧机队正在刺激市场持续活跃。机队现代化使航空公司能够淘汰高耗油飞机,从而提高营运利润率并符合更严格的噪音和排放标准。波音公司于2024年7月发布的《2024-2043年商用飞机市场展望》预测,未来20年所需的44,000架新飞机中,约44%将用于替换老旧喷射机。这种替换週期确保了订单的稳定,不受经济波动的影响。国际航空运输协会(IATA)的预测也支持了这一观点,即2024年航空公司总收入将达到创纪录的9,960亿美元。
持续的供应链中断对全球民航机市场的成长构成重大阻碍。这些物流瓶颈的特点是原料和关键零件(例如引擎和半导体)短缺,严重限制了原始设备製造商 (OEM) 的生产能力。因此,生产线无法扩大规模以满足航空公司对新飞机的激增需求。新飞机交付困难迫使航空公司延长老旧、低效飞机的使用寿命。这增加了维护和燃油成本,同时限制了可利用的座位总数,从而错失了在全球旅行復苏之际抓住商机。
航空公司对飞机的需求与实际产量之间有显着的统计脱节。根据国际航空运输协会(IATA)的数据,2024年航空业预计仅交付1,254架民航机,比疫情前的尖峰时段下降约30%。这种供不应求导致未交付交货的积压日益严重,而已交付的飞机数量却没有相应增加,阻碍了市场充分发挥其收入潜力。
随着航空公司越来越倾向于使用远程窄体飞机来优化航线网路柔软性和经济效益,市场正在经历根本性的重组。航空公司正在将这些用途广泛的单通道飞机部署在传统上由宽体飞机主导的远程航线上,从而实现直飞,降低旅行成本。这种营运模式的转变迫使製造商将产业资源集中在提高热门窄体飞机项目的产量,这些项目具备远程飞行能力,从而有效地改变了传统的飞机细分市场格局。根据波音公司于2024年7月发布的《2024-2043年商用飞机市场展望》,预计未来20年单通道飞机将占新商用飞机交付的76%,凸显了该细分市场日益增长的主导地位。
同时,航空业正积极扩大永续航空燃料(SAF)的生产和使用,以实现成长与碳排放的脱钩。这一趋势无需即时改变推进技术,而是旨在转型能源供应链,使现有和未来的飞机都能满足严格的环保法规。航空公司正在加强与能源供应商的长期采购协议,以促进基础设施投资并确保减少排放所需的供应。根据国际航空运输协会(IATA)于2024年6月发布的「净零碳排放」蓝图新闻稿,预计到2024年,永续航空燃料的产量将成长两倍,达到19亿公升,显示业界正在迅速行动,支持这项转型。
The Global Commercial Aircraft Market is projected to expand from USD 172.05 Billion in 2025 to USD 236.69 Billion by 2031, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.46%. Commercial aircraft, defined as fixed-wing vehicles operated by airlines to transport paying passengers and cargo, are seeing market growth driven primarily by a resurgence in global air travel demand. Furthermore, airlines face an operational necessity to replace aging fleets with fuel-efficient alternatives to lower operating costs, while economic expansion in emerging regions increases disposable incomes and stimulates passenger traffic, necessitating fleet expansion for network carriers.
| Market Overview | |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2027-2031 |
| Market Size 2025 | USD 172.05 Billion |
| Market Size 2031 | USD 236.69 Billion |
| CAGR 2026-2031 | 5.46% |
| Fastest Growing Segment | Narrow-Body Aircraft |
| Largest Market | Asia Pacific |
However, the market encounters significant obstacles due to persistent supply chain disruptions that delay production schedules and impede the timely delivery of new units. These logistical bottlenecks prevent manufacturers from fully capitalizing on the robust recovery in air travel. According to the International Air Transport Association, total revenue passenger kilometers rose by 7.1 percent in October 2024 compared to the previous year. Despite this growth, the continuing disparity between rising service demand and constrained manufacturing output remains a critical barrier to broader industry expansion.
Market Driver
The surge in global air passenger traffic and travel demand acts as a primary catalyst for the Global Commercial Aircraft Market, pushing network carriers to increase fleet capacity to handle growing route density. As international borders fully reopen and consumer confidence is restored, airlines are prioritizing the acquisition of new assets to manage the substantial volume of leisure and business travelers. This mobility demand creates immense pressure on manufacturers to accelerate production rates for both single-aisle and wide-body airframes to avoid capacity shortages on high-traffic corridors. According to the International Air Transport Association's 'Global Outlook for Air Transport' from June 2024, passenger numbers are projected to reach 4.96 billion in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, prompting carriers to aggressively expand order books to secure delivery slots.
Simultaneously, the accelerated replacement of aging fleets with fuel-efficient aircraft stimulates continuous market activity as operators strive to lower variable costs and achieve sustainability benchmarks. Modernizing fleets allows airlines to retire fuel-intensive models, improving operating margins and ensuring compliance with stricter noise and emissions standards. Boeing's 'Commercial Market Outlook 2024-2043', released in July 2024, forecasts that nearly 44 percent of the 44,000 new airplanes required over the next two decades will be dedicated to replacing older jets. This renewal cycle ensures a steady stream of orders regardless of economic fluctuations, reflected by the International Air Transport Association's expectation that total airline industry revenues will reach a record USD 996 billion in 2024.
Market Challenge
Persistent supply chain disruptions constitute a major impediment to the growth of the Global Commercial Aircraft Market. These logistical bottlenecks, characterized by shortages in raw materials and critical components such as engines and semiconductors, severely restrict the manufacturing capabilities of original equipment manufacturers. Consequently, production lines are unable to scale up to meet the surging airline demand for new fleet additions. This inability to deliver new units compels airlines to extend the service life of aging, less efficient aircraft, which increases maintenance and fuel costs while simultaneously limiting the total seat capacity available to capture revenue from the global travel recovery.
The disparity between airline fleet requirements and actual manufacturing output is statistically significant. According to the International Air Transport Association, the aviation industry received delivery of only 1,254 commercial aircraft in 2024, a figure approximately 30 percent below the delivery volumes observed during pre-pandemic peaks. This shortfall prevents the market from realizing its full revenue potential, as the backlog of unfilled orders continues to accumulate without a corresponding increase in the transactional turnover of completed assets.
Market Trends
The market is undergoing a fundamental restructuring as airlines increasingly favor long-range narrow-body aircraft to optimize route networks for flexibility and economic efficiency. Carriers are deploying these versatile single-aisle airframes on long-haul routes previously dominated by wide-body jets, enabling direct point-to-point connections with reduced trip costs. This operational shift forces manufacturers to focus industrial resources on increasing throughput for popular narrow-body programs that offer extended range capabilities, effectively altering traditional fleet segmentation. According to Boeing's 'Commercial Market Outlook 2024-2043' from July 2024, single-aisle models are projected to comprise 76 percent of all new commercial airplane deliveries over the next two decades, underscoring the segment's growing dominance.
Concurrently, the aviation sector is aggressively scaling the production and utilization of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) to decouple growth from carbon emissions. This trend aims to transform the energy supply chain to ensure existing and future aircraft meet rigorous environmental mandates without requiring immediate changes to propulsion technology. Airlines are solidifying long-term offtake agreements with energy providers to stimulate infrastructure investment and secure necessary volumes for emissions reduction. According to a June 2024 press release by the International Air Transport Association regarding the 'Net Zero Carbon Emissions' roadmap, production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel is expected to triple in 2024 to reach 1.9 billion liters, demonstrating rapid industrial mobilization to support this transition.
Report Scope
In this report, the Global Commercial Aircraft Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:
Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Commercial Aircraft Market.
Global Commercial Aircraft Market report with the given market data, TechSci Research offers customizations according to a company's specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report: