重塑氢能经济：材料与硬体市场与技术 2025-2045

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当氢气被重新定位以增强电气化而不是徒劳地破坏电气化时，它将拥有一个巨大的新市场。例如，核融合可以成为为电网发电的一种成功方式。事实上，根据设计，它甚至可以直接产生电能。它可以为大型船舶的电力驱动提供动力。核融合能源的投资正在迅速成长，预计2035年后每年将有超过100亿美元的投资用于商业化。虽然太阳能发电具有发电成本低的优势，但盐洞中的传统储氢技术在季节性储氢需求方面处于领先地位。事实上，相当于现代战略石油储备的可能是储存地下洞穴中更长的绿色氢气。扩大绿色氢气作为化学原料的使用也具有相当大的潜力，这两种选择都比以前将氢气输送到家庭和汽车的灾难性尝试更加现实。

本报告探讨了重建氢能经济的趋势，总结了其历史与课题、氢气生产与储存技术、材料发展趋势，分析了LDES（长期储能）与氢气、氢核聚变、氢气作为化工原料等氢能经济的新机遇，并展望了未来的发展前景。

目录

第 1 章执行摘要与概述

• 本报告的目标
• 研究方法
• 工业氢的总体概述和 SWOT 评估
• 概述：电网氢气：SWOT 评估和聚变发电
• 概述：电网氢能：长期储能 (LDES) 和 SWOT 评估
• 概述：绿氢能作为化学原料
• 概述：陆地、水上和空中氢动力交通工具
• 氢能经济转型路线图，包括电网支援（聚变、低密度聚乙烯 (LDES)）、化学原料和利基燃料
• 2025 年至 2045 年的市场预测：27 个项目
  • 氢能市场
  • 氢能硬体市场
  • 以技术类别划分的 LDES 市场
  • LDES 市场
  • LDES 市场 2025-2045

第2章 氢概要:事业机会及相关的材料

• 概要
• 本章的内容
• 改变氢经济的目标和优先事项
• 支持重建氢经济的努力范例
• 氢气作为商业机会的基础知识
• 为什么氢能经济的最初构想会失败
• 膜材料的复杂程度

第3章 氢製造·贮存技术和材料的创新

• 概要
• 氢製造
• 氢的运输和贮存的方法与材料

第4章 电力网:氢长期能源储存 (LDES)

• 概要
• 化学中间体LDES的最佳点
• LDES中氢气、甲烷和氨的比较
• 氢能 LDES 领导者：美国卡利斯託加弹性中心
• 计算表明，氢气在运行时间最长的 LDES 中胜出
• 矿业巨头正在谨慎行事，有很多选择
• 建筑物及其他小型场所
• LDES储氢技术
• LDES储氢参数评估
• LDES 中氢气、甲烷和氨的 SWOT 评估

第五章：电网：氢能聚变发电

• 核融合基础：候选反应与特殊材料的潜力
• 对聚变电网潜力的 SWOT 评估
• 实际裂变发电系统与拟议的聚变发电系统的比较
• 核融合反应器的运作原理和辐射对材料的损伤
• 惯性约束聚变
• 用于聚变发电的磁约束选项
• 兴趣和投资激增：人们选择哪些技术以及为什么？
• 私人核融合公司竞相兴建氢聚变电站的分析
• 主要聚变能公司：依国家、不同的绩效标准和资金
• 核融合发电的最早交付日期

第6章 化学，钢铁，食品製造的氢原料反应物及中间体

• 概述：氢气用于化学物质：肥料、水泥、燃料、食品、碳奈米管
• 水泥和混凝土脱碳
• 石油精炼和化学工程中的氢气
• 氢气在肥料生产上的应用：氨路线与前景
• 氢气炼钢脱碳及2025年调查与展望
• 二氧化碳加氢用于永续燃料和化学品生产

第7章 完全的电气化不足或实行不可能的利基燃料:部分航太，船舶，列车，公路式，越野车，微电网

• 概要
• 与氢巴士路面电车:小的占有率与展望
• 氢卡车
• 含堆高机的物料输送及工程车
• 开采车辆
• 农业用车辆
• 军用车辆
• 列车
• 船艇·船舶
• 航空氢气：SAF 和纯氢气计划、调查和评估（截至 2025 年）
• 氢能微电网及 2025 年调查
• 氢气热电联产的新发明

Summary

The hydrogen economy reinvented will call for many new high-added-value materials and devices. A report is now available on just this. It is Zhar Research, "The Hydrogen Economy Reinvented: Materials and Hardware Markets, Technology 2025-2045".

If you cannot beat them then join them

It is now realised that hydrogen will have large new markets when it is redirected to enhance electrification, not pitched as a futile attempt to destroy electrification. For instance, it can succeed as fusion power for electricity grids. Indeed, it some designs, it will directly produce electricity. That may power the electric drives of large ships. Investment in fusion power is rocketing, with over $10 billion yearly in prospect for commercialisation, mostly 2035 and beyond, and much of this spent on specialist materials. Meanwhile, as solar wins for lowest cost electricity generation, regular hydrogen in salt caverns is front-runner for seasonal storage needs arising. Indeed, the modern equivalent of strategic oil reserves may be green hydrogen stored in underground caverns for much longer. In addition, there is considerable potential to grow the use of green hydrogen as a chemical feedstock, all of these options being far more realistic than the earlier doomed attempts to pipe hydrogen into our homes and cars.

Big reversals: different opportunities

Learn how there are big reversals here. Fusion power will need tiny amounts of hydrogen but at massively high prices for the deuterium and tritium isotopes. It will need highly sophisticated, high-priced materials, mostly inorganic. The volume demand for regular hydrogen will heavily involve chemical intermediary and fuel blends rather than the original idea of pure hydrogen everywhere. Because of its fundamental properties, we shall minimise the distribution of hydrogen, not maximise it.

Your new addressable markets

The commercially-oriented, 340-page report starts with a 50-page Executive Summary and Conclusions sufficient in itself for those in a hurry. Here are 51 key conclusions, 27 forecast lines, roadmap in three lines by year 2025-2045, three SWOT appraisals and many lucid new infographics making it easy to grasp your new opportunities. Among the new needs, learn why nickel, iron, copper and lithium-based materials are so prominent alongside biological materials. What are the many types of sophisticated membranes now needed?

Which chemistries?

Why are chemistries of B, Ba, Be, Co, Nb, Pt, V, Zn and, to a lesser extent, Ir, La, Mn, Zr important? Which organics and why, including many membrane composites emerging? Many 2025 research papers and latest industrial advances are analysed throughout the report.

Chapter 2. "Introduction to hydrogen: business opportunities and materials involved" takes 44 pages to cover actual and potential uses of green hydrogen, hydrogen isotopes and their primary uses, actual and targetted, and evidence that the industry is starting to pivot towards different objectives. Many of the resulting, different, hardware needs are introduced here.

Production is changing

The 46 pages of Chapter 3. "Hydrogen production and storage technologies and materials reinvented" concern regular hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen, reasons for current strong investment in hydrogen production and hydrogen hubs, ten hydrogen production methods and their materials then specifically electrolyser technologies compared, materials opportunities emerging. See new focus on geologic "natural" hydrogen, solar hydrogen panels, bio-fermentation and hydrogen made where it is needed. Will there be over-production of green hydrogen due to cost and other factors? Understand hydrogen storage materials: addressing life, size, weight, leakage and safety issues. What hydrogen transport and storage methods, materials, challenges are your opportunities? One particularly important aspect then gets its own chapter.

Electricity grids come center stage

Chapter 4. "Electricity grids: Hydrogen Long Duration Energy Storage LDES" (54 pages). Mostly underground in salt caverns, this will mainly involve massive surplus wind and solar power making green hydrogen with storage then subsequent discharge (GWh divided by GW) of three months or more. Again the coverage is both up-to-date and critical with 2025 research and honest, numerate presentation of the serious conversion efficiency, leakage and other issues for you to solve.

Hydrogen fusion power

It is deeply significant that proof of principle has recently been repeatedly demonstrated with generation of electricity by hydrogen fusion and many amply-funded private companies are promising to demonstrate it providing grid electricity well within the 2025-2045 timeframe. Chapter 5. "Electricity grids: Nuclear fusion power from hydrogen" (57 pages) critically inspects a profusion of 2025 research and industrial advances in this, particularly surfacing your exciting equipment and materials opportunities. Specialist steels, lithium breeder blankets, diamond hydrogen targets, high temperature superconductors pinching hydrogen plasma, deuterium, tritium and helium3 and are examples that are potentially highly profitable.

Growth in use as chemical reactant

Chapter 6. "Hydrogen feedstock reactant and intermediary in chemical, steel, food manufacture" (28 pages) sees growth in this substantial existing use of hydrogen as a chemical feedstock but this situation is complex. For example, there will be more green hydrogen use to make ammonia notably to make fertilizer. However, on a 20-year timeframe, farming is increasingly going indoors with aquaponics, hydroponics and cell culture needing little fertilizer -sometimes 95% less. Use in steelmaking is likely to be a largely new market and more hydrogen will be used in oil refineries until they are hit by a decline in number due to electrification of homes and vehicles. Over-arching all this is adoption of green hydrogen in place of dirtier forms and to make higher value materials such as carbon nanotubes. All is explained and predicted in this chapter, including relevance of hydrogen to cement decarbonisation.

Hydrogen as a niche fuel

Chapter 7. "Niche fuel where full electrification is inadequate or impracticable:

some aerospace, ships, trains, on-road, off-road vehicles, microgrids" in 40 pages addresses what remains after the original dream is abandoned - battery-electric vehicles and electricity equipment in our homes being much simpler, safer, more affordable and longer-lived. We find that industrial heating, off-road vehicles, trains and ships are among the niches that may adopt some hydrogen solutions but affordable MW-level mining vehicle and ship batteries and faster improvement of battery-electric powertrains are a threat, including very fast charging. Hydrogen adoption niches will sometimes be aided by being a marginally costed part of a hydrogen ecosystem because total cost of ownership is a major impediment in stand-alone transport and microgrid systems.

CAPTION: Primary mentions of valuable materials in the Zhar Research report, "The Hydrogen Economy Reinvented: Materials and Hardware Markets, Technology 2025-2045". Elements named refer to use as metal, alloy or compound.

CAPTION: Membrane materials for hydrogen-related devices by level of sophistication
Source: Zhar Research report, "The Hydrogen Economy Reinvented: Materials and Hardware Markets, Technology 2025-2045" .

Table of Contents

1. Executive summary and conclusions

• 1.1. Purpose of this report
• 1.2. Methodology of this analysis
• 1.3 25 General conclusions and SWOT appraisal of industrial hydrogen
• 1.4. Conclusions: hydrogen for electricity grids: fusion power with SWOT appraisal
• 1.5. Conclusions: hydrogen for electricity grids: Long Duration Energy Storage LDES with SWOT appraisal
• 1.6. Conclusions: green hydrogen as a chemical feedstock
• 1.7. Conclusions: hydrogen vehicles by land, water and air
• 1.8. Roadmap for reinvented hydrogen economy 2025-2045 with lines for electricity grid support (fusion, LDES), chemical feedstock and niche fuel
• 1.9. Market forecasts 2025-2045 in 27 lines
  • 1.9.1. Hydrogen market million tonnes 2025-2045 in seven lines, table, graphs
  • 1.9.2. Hydrogen hardware market $ billion 2025-2045 in 8 lines, table, graphs
  • 1.9.3. LDES market in 9 technology categories $ billion 2025-2045, 9 lines table, graphs
  • 1.9.4. LDES total value market showing beyond-grid gaining share 2025-2045
  • 1.9.5. Total LDES value market percent in three size categories 2025-2045 table, graphs

2. Introduction to hydrogen: business opportunities and materials involved

• 2.1. Overview
• 2.2. Coverage in this chapter
• 2.3. The hydrogen economy objectives and how priorities are changing
  • 2.3.1. Many actual and potential uses of green hydrogen
  • 2.3.2. Lessons of history and new objectives for 2025-2045
  • 2.3.3. How the hydrogen economy idea is being reinvented to reflect new realities
  • 2.3.4. Reinvention to leverage strengths leads to different beneficiaries
  • 2.3.5. New realities: how the hydrogen economy objective is being reinvented
  • 2.3.6. The most promising uses of green hydrogen 2025-2045
  • 2.3.7 2024-5 research advances
• 2.4. Examples of initiatives supporting the reinvented hydrogen economy
  • 2.4.1. Steel, ammonia, hydrogen hubs not based on everyday fuel making, fusion power
  • 2.4.2. Private fusion companies and governments race into hydrogen fusion power
• 2.5. Basics of hydrogen as your business opportunity
  • 2.5.1. SWOT appraisal of hydrogen
  • 2.5.2. Hydrogen isotopes and their primary uses actual and targetted
  • 2.5.3. Comparison of regular hydrogen (protium) with other fuels and with deuterium and tritium forms of hydrogen
  • 2.5.4. Parameters for on-board hydrogen storage vs gasoline
• 2.6. Why the first concept of a hydrogen economy is failing
  • 2.6.1. Some emerging realities driving reinvention of the hydrogen economy idea
  • 2.6.2. How hydrogen is not the leading prospect for decarbonisation
  • 2.6.3. How a battery competes with hydrogen tank + fuel cell
  • 2.6.4. Why hydrogen for mainstream heating is fundamentally more complex and expensive than electrification
  • 2.6.5. Why hydrogen is not "the new mainstream oil or gas fuel" 2025-2045 but niches remain
• 2.7. Membrane materials by level of sophistication

3. Hydrogen production and storage technologies and materials reinvented

• 3.1. Overview
• 3.2 Hydrogen production
  • 3.2.1. Strong investment in hydrogen production and hydrogen hubs
  • 3.2.2. Hydrogen production choices using color coding
  • 3.2.3. Eleven hydrogen production methods and their materials compared
  • 3.2.4. Electrolyser technologies compared
  • 3.2.5. Materials opportunities emerging
  • 3.2.6. New focus on - geologic "natural" hydrogen, solar hydrogen panels, bio-fermentation
  • 3.2.7. Examples of hydrogen made where it is needed - a new emphasis
  • 3.2.8. Will there be over-production of green hydrogen due to cost and other factors?
• 3.3. Hydrogen transport and storage methods and materials
  • 3.3.1. The challenges
  • 3.3.2. Five types of hydrogen and intermediary for storage compared
  • 3.3.3. Hydrogen storage materials: addressing life, size, weight, leakage and safety issues

4. Electricity grids: Hydrogen Long Duration Energy Storage LDES

• 4.1. Overview
  • 4.1.1. Approach
  • 4.1.2. Optimisation and priorities
  • 4.1.3. Hydrogen grid storage: the UK as an example of contention
  • 4.1.4. Wide spread of parameters means interpretation should be cautious
• 4.2. Sweet spot for chemical intermediary LDES
  • 4.2.1. Best applications
  • 4.3.2. New research on salt caverns, subsea and other options for large scale hydrogen storage
  • 4.3.3. New research on complex mechanisms for hydrogen loss
  • 4.3.4. N4w research on hydrogen leakage causing global warming
  • 4.3.5. New research combining grid hydrogen storage with other storage: hybrid systems
• 4.4. Hydrogen compared to methane and ammonia for LDES
• 4.5. Hydrogen LDES leader: Calistoga Resiliency Centre USA 48-hour hydrogen LDES
• 4.6. Calculations finding that hydrogen will win for longest term LDES
• 4.7. Mining giants prudently progress many options
• 4.8. Buildings and other small locations
  • 4.8.1. Rationale
  • 4.8.2. Hydrogen storage offered for houses in Italy and Germany
• 4.9. Technologies for LDES hydrogen storage
  • 4.9.1. Overview
  • 4.9.2. Choices of underground storage for LDES hydrogen
  • 4.9.3. Hydrogen interconnectors for electrical energy transmission and storage
  • 4.9.4. Review of 15 projects that use hydrogen as energy storage in a power system
• 4.10. Parameter appraisal of hydrogen storage for LDES
• 4.11. SWOT appraisal of hydrogen, methane, ammonia for LDES

5. Electricity grids: Nuclear fusion power from hydrogen

• 5.1. Fusion basics: candidate reactions and specialist materials opportunities
  • 5.1.1. Candidate hydrogen fusion reactions
  • 5.1.2. Development objectives are fusion ignition then net power gain
  • 5.1.3. Materials opportunities: liquids, solids, gases and plasma
• 5.3. SWOT appraisal of the potential of fusion grid power
• 5.4. Comparison of actual fission and planned fusion power systems
• 5.5. Operating principles of fusion reactors and radiation damage of the materials
  • 5.5.1. Candidate designs
  • 5.5.2. Radiation and plasma damage of the materials: research in 2025 and future needs
• 5.6. Inertial Confinement Fusion
  • 5.6.1. Laser-based inertial confinement fusion (LICF) laser designs
  • 5.6.2. Fusion target opportunities
  • 5.6.3. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories LLNL National Ignition Facility NIF
  • 5.6.4. Other inertial confinement developers and the special case of Helion
• 5.7. Magnetic confinement options for fusion power
  • 5.7.1. General
  • 5.7.2. Heating
  • 5.7.3. Electricity production
  • 5.7.4. Tokamak and Z-Pinch: JET, ITER and others
  • 5.7.5. Toroidal magnetic confinement machine material opportunities
  • 5.7.6. Research in 2025 on toroidal and allied fusion power hardware
  • 5.7.7. Stellarators and their research in 2025
  • 5.7.8. Inside-out magnetic confinement: OpenStar levitated dipole fusion reactor
• 5.8. Sudden surge in interest and investment: which technology and why
• 5.9. Analysis of private fusion companies racing to make hydrogen fusion electricity generators
• 5.10. Winning fusion power companies by country, various performance criteria, funding
  • 5.10.1. Analysis by location, operating principles, funding of private companies
  • 5.10.2. Winning technologies in approaching or achieving fusion ignition
• 5.11. Earliest dates for fusion electricity being delivered

6. Hydrogen feedstock reactant and intermediary in chemical, steel, food manufacture

• 6.1. Overview: hydrogen for chemicals from fertiliser and cement, fuels, foods, carbon nanotubes
  • 6.1.1. Current situation
  • 6.1.2. Growth ahead making higher value materials such as carbon nanotubes
  • 6.1.3. Europe takes the lead in decarbonising industrial hydrogen: 2025 initiatives
• 6.2. Cement and concrete decarbonisation
  • 6.2.1. The challenge and the place of hydrogen
  • 6.2.2. First net zero concrete placement using synthetic limestone aggregate
  • 6.2.3. Use of hydrogen for cement and concrete decarbonisation
  • 6.2.4. Appraisal of examples, latest research and intentions for hydrogen in cement manufacture
  • 6.2.5 24 of the companies and primary countries involved
• 6.3. Hydrogen in oil refineries and chemical engineering
  • 6.3.1. Rationale
  • 6.3.2. Current examples of hydrogen in the oil and gas industry
  • 6.3.3. Key applications and prospects
• 6.4. Hydrogen use in fertiliser production 2025-2045, the ammonia route and prospects
• 6.5. Decarbonising steel making with hydrogen and its 2025 research and prospects
• 6.6. Hydrogenation of carbon dioxide for sustainable fuel and chemical production: 2025 research

7. Niche fuel where full electrification is inadequate or impracticable: some aerospace, ships, trains, on-road, off-road vehicles, microgrids

• 7.1. Overview:
  • 7.1.1. General situation through 2025 and coverage in this chapter
  • 7.1.2. Why hydrogen prospects are greater for very large vehicles
  • 7.1.3. Hydrogen as a hybrid solution for vehicles land, water and air
• 7.2. Hydrogen bus and tram minority share and prospects
• 7.3. Hydrogen trucks
• 7.4. Material handling and construction vehicles including forklift trucks
• 7.5. Mining vehicles
• 7.6. Agricultural vehicles
• 7.7. Military vehicles
• 7.8. Trains
• 7.9. Boats and ships
  • 7.9.1. Overview
  • 7.9.2. Progress towards energy independent ships without hydrogen
  • 7.9.3. Hydrogen options as ship fuel loaded or made on-board including planned Energy Observer 2 ship
  • 7.9.4. International Maritime Organisation forecasts, actions, view of hydrogen as ship fuel
  • 7.9.5. Hydrogen ships and boats: practical experience through 2025
  • 7.9.6. Research progress in 2025
• 7.10. Hydrogen for aircraft: SAF and pure hydrogen initiative, research, appraisal through 2025
  • 7.10.1. Current situation
  • 7.10.2. Sustainable Aviation Fuel SAF involving hydrogen
  • 7.10.3. Pure hydrogen aviation
  • 7.10.4. Research in 2025 on hydrogen aviation materials and issues
  • 7.10.5. Enthusiasm meets decline in interest
• 7.11. Hydrogen microgrids and their 2025 research
• 7.12. Hydrogen combined heat and power reinvented