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供应商对 4 级自动驾驶的准备：感测器、系统、策略和市场占有率
市场调查报告书
商品编码
1548966

供应商对 4 级自动驾驶的准备：感测器、系统、策略和市场占有率

Supplier Readiness for Level 4 Autonomy: Sensors, Systems, Strategy, Market Shares
出版日期: | 出版商: Auto2x | 英文 100 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内

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简介目录

本报告的排名涵盖了 ADAS 一级公司前 20 名，包括 APTIV、博世、大陆集团、电装、Mobileye、法雷奥、采埃孚、百度、阿里巴巴、亚马逊、华为和富士康。

  • 了解每个供应商在感测器、功能、运算和软体方面的技术能力，以实现 1 至 4 级驾驶和停车。
  • 了解合作伙伴关係、投资、併购、新产品发布、供应链和商业模式等策略。
  • 市场分析：市场优势、各公司在 ADAS 上的收入、新进入所促使的竞争格局变化。

哪些 ADAS 供应商支援 4 级自动驾驶？

主要分析结果

  • 现有一级供应商引领 ADAS 市场，但面临转型和竞争挑战
  • 中国新兴供应商和新技术进入者威胁 ADAS 和电气化领域的主要一级领导地位
  • 感知、运算、人工智慧、SDV 和新市场的新机会
  • 供应商应继续投资技术、加强合作伙伴关係并建立以客户为中心的业务模式

Auto2x发布了《4级自动驾驶供应商准备排名》报告。它分析了 ADAS（高级驾驶辅助系统）竞争格局的演变以及技术提供者的 4 级自动驾驶路线图。

本次排名涵盖了 ADAS 一级公司前 20 名，包括 APTIV、博世、大陆集团、电装、Mobileye、法雷奥、采埃孚，以及百度、阿里巴巴、亚马逊、华为、富士康。

为了评估供应商的准备情况，本报告量化了以下项目：

  • 供应商在感测器、功能、计算和软体方面的技术能力，以实现 1-4 级驾驶和停车。 各供应商的
  • 策略：合作伙伴关係、投资、併购、新产品发布、供应链、商业模式等。
  • 供应商的市场地位和 ADAS 收入

目标受众

  • 汽车原始设备製造商和 1/2 级供应商的工程、策略、行销、研发和创新人员
  • 一家考虑进入汽车市场的科技公司的创新经理
  • 专门研究汽车产业的投资者/财务分析师
  • 汽车产业顾问/策略师

对读者的好处

  • 全面了解 ADAS 供应商格局。
  • 确定自动驾驶技术合作伙伴及收购目标。
  • 现有参与者和新进入者的竞争力评估
  • 可以指导研发投资和市场定位的策略决策。
  • 了解将塑造自动驾驶未来的新兴趋势和技术。

为什么回应等级很重要？

为了在自动驾驶竞赛中取得成功，供应商需要在三个参数上具有竞争力：

  • 技术竞争力
  • 执行策略的能力（强大的合作伙伴关係和投资网络），以及
  • 强大的市场定位，以获得市场占有率

策略

  • 透过在正确的时间投资正确的技术和市场，可以在波动中预见不断变化的市场需求。
  • 确定因市场重组而产生的新收入池（新创新、亚洲收入池的变化等）。

面向未来的科技

  • 3/4级自动驾驶所需的下一代软体/硬体（DC、运算、4D成像雷达等）：谁拥有优势？
  • 新的驾驶和停车功能在这里：谁在创新以提供有竞争力的解决方案？

市场领导地位

  • 适应不断变化的需求和新兴市场：建立或维持新的收入
  • 新进业者威胁领导者：拥有人工智慧/云端和内部开发部门的大型科技公司的存在

策略执行包括强大的愿景、合作关係、投资和併购

使用互动式图表来了解主要供应商和汽车製造商的策略。

技术竞争力内容：

  • 强大的 1 至 4 级功能组合，适用于私家车、自动驾驶卡车和共享出行等用例（高速公路司机和城市代客泊车等 4 级功能正在开发中）；
  • 全面且强大的感测器组（成像雷达、固态光达等）。
  • 集中式 E/E 架构、软体堆迭、验证/认证功能等。

博世案例研究 - 全球最大的汽车零件供应商

  • ADAS 功能：Bosch正在开发 L4 高速公路功能，但目前正在评估其他 Tier 1（例如 APTIV）在该功能方面拥有更强的功能。
  • 感测器：博世在 ADAS 领域拥有强大的地位，但 3/4 级需要更多创新。将LiDAR 和超级电脑添加到其产品组合中是朝着正确方向迈出的一步，但该公司正在与LiDAR 领域的其他一级公司（法雷奥用于梅赛德斯-奔驰的L3 ） 进行竞争。
  • 验证：博世领导了一个名为 "VVM" 的研究计画。 VVM代表4级和5级自动驾驶车辆验证和认证方法，于2019年7月11日推出，有效期四年。在博世和宝马这两个财团的领导下，并在联邦经济事务和研究与发展部的资助下，23家着名的行业和研究合作伙伴共同开发了一种合法可行、省时且具有成本效益的产品。以复杂的城市交叉路口应用为例，VVM 开发了将虚拟和真实测试结合的重要创新。
  • 机器人计程车：戴姆勒和博世是城市环境中 L4 机器人计程车联盟的成员，该联盟于 2021 年 8 月结束。博世是一家感测器供应商，开发感测器，并正在开发一个运算平台，作为与戴姆勒合作的一部分。博世为 L3+ 开发了自己的软体（目前不支援其他 L4）。

市场定位

此参数反映：

  • ADAS 感测器和功能的客户数量：包括汽车製造商、卡车製造商和 AMOD
  • 四大主要市场的客户数量：中国、美国、欧盟、日本
  • ADAS 收入
  • 市场占有率：按感测器、功能和区域划分
  • ADAS 与销售额的比率：反映了对 ADAS 的关注

ADAS 供应商的市场领导趋势

  • 2023 年排名前 15 名的公司汽车销售额达 3,600 亿欧元。
  • 2023 年排名前 10 名的公司研发支出为 257 亿欧元。博世的研发支出最高，其次是采埃孚和电装。
  • Mobileye 在第一级研发强度最高，其次是博世和法雷奥。

哪些供应商已准备好迎接自主移动的新时代？

"Auto2x 根据主要一级供应商和新公司的技术竞争力、策略执行和市场定位评估了他们的准备程度。"

第一个参数技术竞争力反映了产品组合，包括感测器、功能、架构、软体堆迭和创新（专利）。

Auto2x 认为 APTIV 和大陆集团在 LiDAR、软体堆迭和运算平台方面拥有成熟的产品/服务，因此对 4 级自动驾驶技术做好了高度准备。

百度凭藉Apollo的优势提供有竞争力的技术。

  • 第二个参数策略执行能力涵盖供应商伙伴关係、投资、ADAS 人才和自动驾驶活动等内容。

博世和 Mobileye 凭藉强大的内部能力、高成长领域的合作伙伴生态系统以及对关键市场的投资，在这一参数上处于领先地位。

大陆集团是 100% 系统供应商，从设计和製造到验证、系统整合以及新功能服务的扩展。因此大陆集团处于有利地位。

  • 第三个参数市场定位反映了按感测器和功能、感测器市场占有率、客户群和地理位置划分的 ADAS 收入。

博世、采埃孚、法雷奥、电装和大陆集团等主要汽车一级供应商仍然在汽车收入中占有很大占有率。

此外，来自 ADAS、电气化和新行动业务模式的收入也在增加。 2021年排名前12位供应商的ADAS销售额年增12.5%，达到160亿欧元。 Auto2x 预计到 2025 年这数字将翻一番，达到 350 亿欧元。

大陆集团2015年至2018年在ADAS市场的销售领先，主要利用其在摄影机市场的主导地位。

不过，它在 2019 年被博世超越，此后一直在 ADAS 收入方面领先市场。该公司的优势在于能够支援 ADAS 以及驾驶和停车功能的 OEM 合同，以实现更高水准的自动化。

  • 整体准备：4 级自动驾驶的供应商准备排名是基于策略（30% 权重）、技术（40%）和市场地位（30%）的。

根据 Auto2x 的数据，博世在具有 1-2 级功能的感测器收入方面领先 ADAS 市场，但在 4 级自动驾驶技术准备方面落后。

另一个成功案例是Mobileye，它引领英特尔的自动驾驶策略，并在ADAS领域获得了很大占有率。 Mobileye 在 4 级自动驾驶准备度方面跻身前三名供应商。

欧洲供应商领先，但中国供应商正在迎头赶上

采埃孚和大陆集团 ADAS 销售额超过 20 亿欧元，但挑战依然存在

根据ADAS全球销售排名，ADAS汽车零件供应商前四名都是欧洲企业：博世、法雷奥、采埃孚、大陆集团。 2022 年汽车产量成长 4%，以及 2-3 级系统感测器安装率提高，为 ADAS 的销售和订单做出了贡献。

  • 采埃孚 2022 年 ADAS 销售额达 24 亿欧元，较 2021 年的 18 亿欧元成长 33%。在 Auto2x 发布的 2021 年 ADAS 销量全球排名中，采埃孚以 11% 的市占率排名第三。
  • 大陆集团的 ADAS 收入成长了 23%，从 2021 年的 17 亿欧元增至 2022 年的 21 亿欧元。 ADAS 占大陆集团汽车销量的 11%。

然而，随着人工智慧和软体能力的发展、软体商业模式的拓展以及面临新的竞争，各大汽车零件製造商正面临进一步转型。

汽车公司在实现 4 级自动驾驶方面面临哪些挑战？

汽车製造商在实现 4 级自动驾驶方面面临多项挑战，包括需要先进的感测器技术和高效能运算平台来即时处理大量资料。

必须克服监管障碍和安全标准，以确保自动驾驶汽车的合规性和社会接受度。

需要大量投资、研究和开发以及合作伙伴关係来建立成功部署所需的基础设施和技术生态系统。

主要汽车 ADAS 供应商面临哪些风险？

供应商面临着竞争加剧带来的风险，特别是来自大型科技公司和利用人工智慧和云端技术的新公司的竞争，这可能会扰乱传统的供应链。

汽车製造商向行动服务供应商的转型迫使供应商快速适应软体驱动的模式，这可能需要大量投资和重组。

此外，货币化从硬体到软体的转变给依赖传统收入来源的供应商带来了挑战，并且需要有选择性的业务策略来保持竞争力。

自动驾驶的新机会

车轮软体革命将定义移动出行的未来

电气化、自动驾驶、共享行动和互联将推动更专业的软体开发。大多数面向硬体的系统变得标准化和商品化。

配备先进软体的 ECU 数量不断增加，导致成本显着增加、车辆软体的复杂性增加以及优化车辆功能的限制。

下一代数位汽车将需要整合新的多样化技术和复杂的逻辑运算，硬体架构将需要支援先进的软体功能和可更新性。

新的合作关係和新的商业模式不断涌现。

哪些新的软体驱动功能具有巨大潜力？

软体是汽车产业数位化的答案，但其实施存在挑战。

SDV主要技术组成部分的主要创新集群如下。

  • EE架构：评估主要汽车製造商和供应商的路线图及其在集中式架构开发中的合作伙伴关係
    • BMW整合的Aptiv主动安全网域控制器
    • 伟世通的网域控制器SmartCore - 由宾士推出；
    • 面向区域的控制单元（ZCU）：将车辆划分为多个区域，并将每个区域集成为一个区域ECU（子ECU不执行任何处理来实现车辆功能），博世面向区域的E/E架构；
    • 跨域集中式单元 (CDCU)：将多个域的功能整合到一个 ECU 中（类似于 DCU 架构），例如博世的以车辆为中心的 ECU。
  • CarOS：了解 Google Android 汽车作业系统的日益普及以及 MBUX 和其他厂商的竞争性产品；
  • 开源软体开发
  • 云端：实现基于云端的ADAS开发的车载云的出现、汽车製造商的产品开发以及微软、亚马逊等的作用；
  • OTA（无线）更新和按需功能的机会；
  • 数位孪生

人工智慧和云端运算的创新将如何影响自动驾驶？

人工智慧和云端运算等新技术对于自动驾驶的未来至关重要，因为它们支援先进的数据处理、即时决策和可扩展的软体更新。

人工智慧透过机器学习和车载助理增强车辆感知和自主性，云端运算支援高效的功能开发和系统整合。

云端运算支援高效的功能开发和系统整合。两者将共同加速向更高水平自动化的过渡，并提高车辆的整体性能和安全性。

人工智慧与云端运算的融合将改变自动驾驶汽车的消费者体验。

人工智慧与云端运算的整合将实现个人化的内部服务（例如客製化娱乐和即时导航辅助），从而显着改善自动驾驶汽车的消费者体验。

云端运算可实现持续更新和增强，确保您的车辆保持最新的技术和安全功能。

此外，人工智慧驱动的虚拟助理可以在旅途中提供无缝互动并提高便利性和整体满意度。

新供应商和大型科技公司如何颠覆大型一级供应商？

传统 ADAS 供应商仍占汽车供应商收入的大部分。但它面临来自美国、中国和其他地方的大型科技公司的竞争，这些公司正在利用人工智慧、云端和软体方面的专业知识来改造汽车。

在2020 年代，汽车製造商将转向更通用的平台以实现成本节约，现有企业将放弃垂直整合的重资产业务模式，以与新进入者竞争，因此，汽车软体的价值将会提高。

软体对于产品差异化至关重要，包括新功能、内容和新的个人化体验。

本报告指出了高科技公司进入或破坏现有供应链的若干机会。

  • 用于自动驾驶的下一代认知硬体
  • 计算，例如用于自动驾驶的 Peta-Ops 晶片

所需的处理能力：

  • Lv.2：需要 10TOPS 的处理能力（每秒兆次运算）
  • Lv.4：100TOPS 或更多
  • Lv.5：需要 1,000TOPS 的处理能力
  • 人工智慧：无人驾驶人工智慧、HMI——车载人工智慧助理等。
  • 基于数据的商业模式（例如车载电子商务）
  • 5G-6G、互联基础设施、智慧城市
  • 自主共享旅游与无人配送

供应商如何保持竞争力并获得优势？

供应商应该如何做才能保持相关性并在自动驾驶领域获得竞争优势和市场占有率？

供应商必须投资先进感知硬体、人工智慧和云端运算等下一代技术，以满足自动驾驶不断变化的需求。

汽车製造商的另一个重要方面是建立开发更大自主性所需的自动驾驶软体和感测器功能。

您还应该调整您的策略，以确定新的收入来源，并与创新合作伙伴合作，抓住高成长机会。

我们与领先的汽车製造商建立了商业和产品开发合作伙伴关係，以支援他们的连网电动车和 ADAS 路线图。快速成长的中国市场中的人工智慧和连接领域对于新的AD供应商从全球一级供应商手中夺取市场占有率至关重要。

此外，供应商必须不断评估其竞争并增强其产品供应，以保持市场竞争力。

最后，鼓励对创新技术和商业模式的投资，例如机器人出租车和最后一英里交付。

对新市场进入者的建议

新供应商的市场进入策略的要点是什么？

新供应商的主要市场进入策略包括与现有公司建立策略伙伴关係、投资创新技术以及专注于自动驾驶领域的利基市场。

潜在技术包括下一代感知硬体、自动驾驶人工智慧以及先进运算解决方案。

  • 联想已与 NVIDIA 和法雷奥合作，作为一级供应商进入 AD-DC 市场。
  • 华为向北汽集团提供L2+光达及车联网服务。近日，华为在一场题为 "聚焦智慧汽车创新" 的产品发布会上，发布了自动驾驶领域的新产品，重点关注ADAS感测器（4D成像雷达）和HMI（AR-HUD）。
  • 三星电子将与特斯拉共同开发HW4.0晶片；

三星电子可以进入哪些科技和国家？

可能的新供应商国家包括中国、美国和欧洲，这些国家对自动驾驶解决方案的需求正在迅速增长。

目录

第一章供应商对4级自动驾驶的反应

  • 1. 供应商回应等级：调查方法
  • 2. 与 4 级自动驾驶 (AD) 的兼容性：整体排名结果
  • 3.策略执行排名：概述
  • 4.市场竞争力排名
  • 5. 市场领导排名：概述
  • 6. ADAS-AD 供应商的机会
  • 7. 机会雷达：依行动、反应和观察进行排名
  • 8. 给现有公司和新进者的建议
  • 9. 一级供应商组合中的差距
  • 10. 威胁领导力的风险

第 2 章策略与执行

  • 1. 供应商 ADAS-AD 策略的趋势
  • 2.供应商通往 4-AD 级的路线图
  • 3. 供应商研发 (R&D) 来推广 AD 软体（2023 年）
  • 4. 新产品发表（2024 年）
  • 5. 主要合作（2024）
  • 6. AMOD（按需自主移动）策略
  • 7. 3-4级自动驾驶平台供应商
  • 8. 同区自动驾驶投资（2024年）
  • 9. 新业务模式：SaaS、CaaS、DaaS、VaaS、Tier-X
  • 10. 大陆集团汽车部门分拆
  • 11. 联想作为新的 DC Tier 1 进入 AD 市场
  • 12.Mobileye 成像雷达
  • 13. 法雷奥的大脑部分
  • 14. 高通
  • 15. 人工智慧监管与道德的趋势

第三章技术竞争力

  • 1. 技术竞争力排名
  • 2. 主要一级供应商提供 ADAS L0-L4 功能
  • 3. 主要一级供应商的感测器产品组合
  • 4. ADAS 雷达与摄影机基准
  • 5.下一代雷达/相机/LiDAR
  • 6. 驾驶员与乘客/机组人​​员监控 (DMS-OMS-PMS)
  • 7. 车载计算的兴起
  • 8. 3-4级自动驾驶的资料记录
  • 9. E/E 架构向互联自动驾驶的演变
  • 10. 软体定义车辆 (SDV) 的创新
  • 11. ADAS 和自动驾驶中的低程式码/无程式码解决方案
  • 12. 专利、智慧财产权和科学文献领域的创新者
  • 13. Auto2x AD 雷达 ADAS 功能的未来
  • 14. 生成式人工智慧与自动驾驶的新应用
  • 15. 车对车通讯（V2V、V2I、V2X）

第 3 章市场领导与定位

  • 1. 以汽车收入划分的供应商排名（2023 年）
  • 2. 供应商收入：ADAS 软体分类
  • 3. 依 ADAS 收入划分的供应商排名（2015-2023 年）
  • 4. 77GHz 雷达供应商市场占有率
  • 5. 中国成为主要广告中心的优势
  • 6. 2 级 ADAS 在印度的兴起

第 5 章 ADAS 与自动驾驶领域的供应商机会

  • 1. 增加了 ADAS 感测器内容
  • 2. 感测器市场预测和 TAM
  • 3. L3/L4 的 LiDAR 收入预测
  • 4. 对 ADAS 软体的需求增加
  • 5. 软体定义车辆 (SDV)
  • 6. ADAS 订阅
  • 7. AMOD（按需自主移动）
  • 8. 3-4 级法规
  • 9. 汽车元宇宙
  • 10.自动交付
  • 11. 3/4 等级自动驾驶保险
  • 12.自动挖矿
简介目录

The rankings cover the Top-20 ADAS Tier-1s, including APTIV, Bosch, Continental, Denso, Mobileye, Valeo, and ZF, Baidu, Alibaba, Amazon, Huawei, Foxconn and others.

  • Learn about the technological capabilities of suppliers in sensors, features, computing and software to deliver Level 1-4 cruising and parking.
  • Understand the strategies, including partnerships, investments, M&A, new product launches, supply chain and business models.
  • Get insights on who is better positioned in the marketplace, their revenues from ADAS and how new entrants will shape competition.

Which ADAS Suppliers are Ready for Level 4 Autonomous Driving?

Key findings

  • Incumbent Tier-1 suppliers lead the ADAS market, but they face challenges to transform and fight the competition
  • Emerging Chinese Suppliers and tech entrants threaten the leadership of major Tier-1s in ADAS & Electrification
  • New opportunities in perception, computing, AI, SDVs and new markets
  • Suppliers should continue investing in tech, strengthen partnerships and build customer-centric business models

Auto2x has released its "Supplier Readiness in Level 4 Autonomous Driving Rankings" report, offering insights into the evolution of the competitive landscape of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and the roadmaps to Level 4 autonomous driving from technology providers.

The rankings cover the Top-20 ADAS Tier-1s, including APTIV, Bosch, Continental, Denso, Mobileye, Valeo, and ZF, in addition to Baidu, Alibaba, Amazon, Huawei, Foxconn and others.

To assess the Supplier Readiness we quantify

  • their technological capabilities of suppliers in sensors, features, computing and software to deliver Level 1-4 cruising and parking.
  • their strategies, including partnerships, investments, M&A, new product launches, supply chain and business models.
  • how they are positioned in the marketplace, their revenues from ADAS

Who Should Read This Report:

  • Engineering, Strategy, Marketing, R&D and Innovation functions in Automotive OEMs and Tier 1-2 Suppliers
  • Innovation Managers in Technology companies exploring automotive market entry
  • Investors and financial analysts focused on the automotive sector
  • Automotive industry consultants and strategists

How Readers Will Benefit:

  • Gain a comprehensive understanding of the ADAS supplier landscape
  • Identify partners or acquisition targets for autonomous driving technology
  • Assess competition from both established players and new entrants
  • Guide strategic decisions around R&D investments and market positioning
  • Understand emerging trends and technologies shaping the future of autonomous driving

Why does a Readiness Level matter?

To succeed in the Autonomous Driving race suppliers must be competitive across 3 parameters:

  • technological competitiveness,
  • strategy execution (strong network of partnerships and investments), and
  • strong market positioning to capture market share.

Strategy

  • Foresee changing market needs amid volatility by investing in the right tech, market at the right time.
  • Identify new revenue pools from new innovation, market consolidation, such as shift of revenue pools in Asia.

Future-proof Technology

  • Next-gen SW-HW needed for Level 3/4 autonomy e.g., DC, compute, 4D imaging radar. Who has an edge?
  • New cruising and parking features emerge: Who is innovating to offer competitive solutions?

Market Leadership

  • Adapt to changing needs and emerging markets to build new revenues or maintain.
  • Leaders are threatened by new entrants such as Tech Giants with AI, Cloud or in-house

Strategy execution includes a powerful vision, partnerships, investments and M&A

Use the interactive graph to learn about the strategies of major suppliers and carmakers.

Technological competitiveness includes

  • a strong portfolio of Level 1-4 features for private cars, autonomous trucks, shared mobility and other use cases (Level 4 features, such as Highway Chauffeur, City and Valet Parking are in development);
  • a comprehensive and robust set of sensors (e.g. imaging radar, solid-state lidar).
  • capabilities in centralised E/E Architecture, SW Stack, Validation-Verification and others.

Let's have a look at some of them taking the example of Bosch, the world's biggest automotive supplier by revenue.

  • ADAS Features: Bosch is developing L4-Highway features but we assess that other Tier-1s, such as APTIV, have stronger capabilities at the moment in this feature.
  • Sensors: Bosch has a strong position in ADAS but needs further innovation for L3-4. The addition of Lidar and supercomputers to its portfolio is in the right direction but the company faces competition for Lidar from other Tier 1s, such as Valeo for Mercedes-Benz's L3.
  • Validation: Bosch led a research project called 'VVM' , short for verification and validation methods of Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous vehicles, launched on 11 July 2019 with a duration of 4 years. Under the leadership of two consortium leaders Bosch and BMW, with funding from the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, 23 well-known industry & research partners will jointly develop legally viable, time-efficient and cost-effective verification and validation methods. Using the example of a complex urban crossroads application, VVM will develop essential innovations combining virtual and real-life tests.
  • Robotaxis: Daimler - Bosch had a consortium for L4 robotaxis in urban environments that ended in Aug'21. Bosch is the sensor supplier, i.e. developing the sensors, and computing platforms as part of its partnership with Daimler who is the lead partner and developer of the SW. Bosch is developing SW on their own for L3+ (not any other L4 as of today).

Market Positioning

This parameter captures:

  • Number of clients in ADAS sensors and features, incl. Carmakers, Trucks, AMOD
  • Clients in Top-4 major markets: China, USA, EU, Japan
  • ADAS revenues
  • Market shares in sensors, features and regional
  • ADAS-to-Sales ratio to show their focus on AD

Trends in Market Leadership of ADAS Suppliers

  • The Top-15 Suppliers recorded Euro-360 Billion in Automotive revenue in 2023.
  • The Top-10 Suppliers recorded Euro-25.7 Billion in R&D spending in 2023. Bosch led R&D expenditure followed by ZF and Denso.
  • Mobileye has the highest R&D intensity across Tier-1s, followed by Bosch and Valeo

Which suppliers are better prepared for the new era of Autonomous Mobility?

"Auto2x assessed the readiness levels of major Tier-1 suppliers and emerging players based on their technological competitiveness, their strategy execution and their market positioning."

The first parameter, Technology Competitiveness, captures the product portfolio of sensors, features, architecture, software stack and innovation (patents).

Auto2x assesses that APTIV and Continental have high readiness levels in Level 4 Autonomous Driving Technology due to their mature offering in Lidar, Software stack and Computing Platforms.

Baidu offers competitive technology due to Apollo's strengths.

  • Strategy Execution, the 2nd parameter, covers a supplier's partnerships, investments, ADAS manpower, activities in autonomous mobility and more.

Bosch and Mobileye lead the pack in this parameter, with strong in-house capabilities, a partner ecosystem in high-growth areas and investments in key markets.

Continental is a 100% system supplier from design and manufacturing to validation and expansion to new services in system integration and functions. This makes them well-positioned.

  • Market Positioning, the 3rd parameter, captures the volume of ADAS revenues from sensors and features, sensor market share, client base and geographical presence.

Major Automotive Tier-1 Suppliers like Bosch, ZF, Valeo, Denso and Continental still maintain the lion's share in terms of automotive revenues.

Furthermore, their revenues from ADAS, electrification and new mobility business models are increasing. ADAS revenues from the Top-12 Suppliers rose 12.5% in 2021 y-y to Euro-16 Billion. Auto2x expects it will double by 2025 to Euro-35 Billion.

Continental led the ADAS market by revenues between 2015 and 2018, mainly by capitalising on its dominance in the camera market.

But they were overtaken by Bosch in 2019, who leads the market by ADAS revenues since then. The contracts with OEMs for ADAS and the ability to support driving and parking features for higher levels of automation are strengths.

  • Overall Readiness Level: The Ranking of Suppliers Readiness in Level 4 Autonomous Driving is based on their competence in three parameters, Strategy (30% weight), Technology (40%) and Market Position (30%).

Auto2x found that Bosch leads the ADAS market by revenues from sensors for Level 1-2 features, but they lag in Technology Readiness for Level 4 Autonomous Driving.

Another success story is Mobileye which spearheads INTEL's Autonomous Driving strategy and has captured a large share in ADAS. Mobileye ranks at the Top-3 of Auto2x's Ranking of Suppliers by Readiness in level-4 Automated Driving.

European suppliers lead the race but Chinese Suppliers are catching up

ZF and Continental broke the Euro-2 Billion mark in ADAS revenues, but challenges remain

The Top-4 Automotive Suppliers of ADAS are all European, Bosch, Valeo, ZF and Continental, according to Global ADAS Ranking by Revenues. The 4% growth in automotive production in 2022 and the higher sensor fitment for Level 2-3 systems benefited their ADAS sales and Order Books.

  • ZF achieved 33% growth in ADAS revenues in 2022 to Euro-2.4 Billion, from Euro-1.8B in 2021. ZF ranked 3rd in the Global ADAS Ranking by Revenues in 2021 from Auto2x with an 11% market share.
  • Continental saw 23% growth in ADAS sales to Euro-2.1 Billion in 2022, from Euro-1.7B in 2021. ADAS accounted for 11% of Continental's Automotive revenues.

But major automotive suppliers face further transformation to develop capabilities in AI and software, expand into software business models and face new competition.

What challenges do automotive companies face in achieving Level 4 autonomy?

Automotive companies face several challenges in achieving Level 4 autonomy, including the need for advanced sensor technology and high-performance computing platforms to process vast amounts of data in real time.

Regulatory hurdles and safety standards must be navigated to ensure compliance and public acceptance of autonomous vehicles.

Significant investments, research and development, and partnerships are required to build the necessary infrastructure and technology ecosystem for successful deployment.

What risks do leading Automotive ADAS Suppliers face?

Suppliers face risks from increased competition, particularly from tech giants and emerging players that leverage AI and cloud technologies, potentially disrupting traditional supply chains.

The transformation of carmakers into mobility service providers pressures suppliers to adapt quickly to software-driven models, which may require significant investment and restructuring.

Additionally, the shift from hardware to software monetization poses challenges for suppliers reliant on traditional revenue streams, necessitating the refinement of their business strategies to remain competitive.

New opportunities in Autonomous Driving

Software-on-Wheels revolution will determine Mobility's future

Electrification, automated driving, shared mobility and connectivity push for more dedicated software development. A large part of hardware-oriented systems becomes more standardized and commoditized.

The growing number of ECUs with sophisticated software leads to significant cost increases, higher in-vehicle software complexity and constraints in optimising vehicular functions.

Next-generation Digital vehicles must integrate new, diverse technologies and complex logical operations; the hardware architecture has to support advanced software functionality and upgradability.

New partnerships and new business models are emerging.

What are some key new Software-driven features with high potential?

Software is the answer to the Digitization of the Automotive Industry but delivery is challenging.

Learn about top innovation clusters across major technological building blocks of SDVs.

  • EE Architectures: Assess the roadmaps of leading carmakers and suppliers in the development of centralized architectures and their partnerships;
    • Aptiv's Active Safety Domain Controller integrated by BMW,
    • Visteon's Domain Controller SmartCore, launched by Mercedes Benz;
    • zone-oriented control units (ZCUs), where the vehicle is divided into zones and each zone integrates into a zone-ECU (the sub-ECUs do not perform any processing to realize a vehicle function) e.g. Bosch's zone-oriented E/E architecture;
    • cross-domain centralized units (CDCUs), where the functions of more than one domain are consolidated onto a single ECU (similar to the DCU's architecture) e.g. Bosch's vehicle-centralized ECU.
  • CarOS: Learn about the rising adoption of Google's Android Automotive OS and the competitive offerings from MBUX and other players;
  • Open-source software development
  • Cloud: the emergence of automotive cloud as an enabler for cloud-based ADAS development, development of offerings from carmakers and the role of Microsoft, Amazon among others;
  • Over-the-Air-updates and the opportunities for features-on-demand;
  • Digital Twin

How could innovation in AI and cloud computing impact autonomous driving?

New technologies like AI and cloud computing are crucial for the future of autonomous driving as they enable advanced data processing, real-time decision-making, and scalable software updates.

AI enhances vehicle perception and autonomy through machine learning and in-car assistants, while cloud computing supports efficient feature development and system integration.

Together, they facilitate the transition to higher levels of automation and improve overall vehicle performance and safety.

The integration of AI and cloud computing will change the consumer experience in autonomous vehicles

Integrating AI and cloud computing will significantly enhance the consumer experience in autonomous vehicles by enabling personalized in-car services, such as tailored entertainment and real-time navigation assistance.

Cloud computing allows for continuous updates and feature enhancements, ensuring vehicles remain up-to-date with the latest technology and safety features.

Additionally, AI-powered virtual assistants can provide seamless interaction, improving convenience and overall satisfaction during travel.

How could new suppliers and Tech Giants disrupt major Tier-1s?

Traditional ADAS suppliers still maintain the lion's share in automotive supplier revenues. But they face competition from US, Chinese and other Tech giants who capitalize on their expertise in AI, Cloud and Software transforming automotive.

In the 2020s the vehicle's software value will exceed that of hardware as carmakers shift to more common platforms to achieve cost savings and existing players are forced to move away from vertically integrated, asset-heavy business models to compete with new entrants.

Software will be crucial for product differentiation such as new features, content, and new personalized experiences.

We have identified several opportunities for Tech Companies to enter or disrupt the existing supply chain.

  • Next-gen Perception Hardware for Autonomous Driving
  • Computing, e.g. Peta-ops chips for Autonomous Driving

"The computing power required for a

  • Lv.2 vehicle is 10 TOPS (tera operations per second),
  • Lv.4 exceeds 100 TOPS,
  • Lv.5 vehicle will require a 1,000 TOPS computing processing power."
  • AI: AI for Autonomy and HMI such as in-car AI assistants
  • Data-based Business models such as in-car e-commerce
  • 5G-6G, Connected Infrastructure and Smart Cities
  • Autonomous Shared Mobility and autonomous deliveries

How can Suppliers stay competitive and gain competitive advantage?

What should suppliers do to stay relevant in autonomous driving, gain competitive advantage and market share?

Suppliers should invest in next-generation technologies, such as advanced perception hardware, AI, cloud computing to meet the evolving demands of autonomous driving.

Another important aspect is building competence in Autonomous Driving software and sensors needed by carmakers to develop higher autonomy.

They should also adapt their strategies to identify new revenue pools and collaborate with innovative partners to tap into high-growth opportunities.

By forming commercial and product development partnerships with volume carmakers to support their connected, electric and ADAS roadmaps. The AI and connectivity domains in the booming Chinese market are crucial for new AD Suppliers to claim market share from global Tier-1s.

Additionally, suppliers must continuously assess competition and enhance their product offerings to maintain a competitive edge in the market.

Finally, fuel investments in innovative technologies and business models incl. robotaxis, and last-mile delivery.

Recommendations for new market entrants

What are some key market entry strategies for new suppliers?

Key market entry strategies for new suppliers include forming strategic partnerships with established players, investing in innovative technologies, and focusing on niche markets within the autonomous driving sector.

Technologies with potential for entry include next-gen perception hardware, AI for autonomy, and advanced computing solutions.

  • Lenovo has entered the AD-DC market as a Tier-1 Supplier with partnerships with NVIDIA and Valeo.
  • Huawei supplies LIDAR and car networking to BAIC for L2+. Huawei has recently launched new products in Autonomous Driving focusing on ADAS sensors (4D imaging radar), HMI (AR-HUD) during their product launch titled 'Focused Innovation for Intelligent Vehicles'.
  • Samsung Electronics will work together with Tesla to develop chips for their HW 4.0;

Which technologies show potential for them to enter and which countries?

Countries with promising opportunities for new suppliers include China, the USA, and in Europe, where demand for autonomous driving solutions is rapidly growing.

Table of Contents

1. Supplier Readiness in Level 4 Autonomous Driving

  • 1. Methodology for the Supplier Readiness Level
  • 2. Findings from the overall ranking of Readiness in Level 4-AD
  • 3. Strategy Execution ranking summary
  • 4. Technology Competitiveness ranking
  • 5. Market Leadership ranking summary
  • 6. Opportunities for ADAS-AD Suppliers
  • 7. Opportunity Radar: rankings by Act, Prepare, Watch
  • 8. Recommendations for incumbents and new market entrants
  • 9. Gaps in the portfolios of Tier-1 Suppliers
  • 10. Risks that threaten their leadership

2. Strategies and execution

  • 1. Trends in Supplier ADAS-AD Strategy
  • 2. Supplier roadmaps to Level 4-AD
  • 3. R&D of Suppliers in 2023 to drive AD-SW
  • 4. New Product Launches in 2024
  • 5. Key collaborations in 2024
  • 6. Strategies in AMOD (Automated-Mobility-on-Demand)
  • 7. Suppliers of Level 3-4 Autonomous Driving Platforms
  • 8. Investments in Autonomous Driving in 2024
  • 9. New Business Models: SaaS, CaaS, DaaS, VaaS, Tier-X
  • 10. Continental's Spin-off of the Automotive Segment
  • 11. Lenovo's entry in the AD markets as a new DC Tier-1
  • 12. Mobileye's Imaging Radar
  • 13. Valeo's Brain segment
  • 14. Qualcomm
  • 15. AI Regulation and developments of Ethics

3. Technology Competitiveness

  • 1. Ranking by Technology Competitiveness r
  • 2. ADAS L0-L4 Feature Availability across major Tier-1 Suppliers
  • 3. Sensor portfolio of leading Tier-1 Suppliers
  • 4. ADAS Radar and Camera benchmarking
  • 5. Next-generation radars, camera, lidar
  • 6. Driver and passenger / occupant monitoring (DMS-OMS-PMS)
  • 7. Rise of on-board vehicle Computing
  • 8. Data recording for Level 3-4 Autonomous Driving
  • 9. The evolution of E/E Architecture for connected and automated driving
  • 10. Innovation in Software-Defined Vehicles (SDV)
  • 11. Low-No Code solutions in ADAS and autonomy
  • 12. Innovators in Patents, Intellectual Property and Scientific Literature
  • 13. Future of ADAS features from Auto2x AD Radar
  • 14. Generative AI and new applications in Autonomous Driving
  • 15. Vehicle-to-Everything Communications (V2V, V2I, V2X)

3. Market Leadership and Positioning

  • 1. Supplier Rankings by Automotive Revenue in 2023
  • 2. Supplier Revenues by ADAS-Software divisions
  • 3. Ranking of Suppliers by ADAS Revenues 2015-2023
  • 4. Supplier market shares in 77GHz radar
  • 5. China's strengths to become Top AD Hub
  • 6. Rise of Level 2-ADAS in India

5. Opportunities in ADAS and Autonomous Driving for Suppliers

  • 1. Rising ADAS sensor content
  • 2. Sensor Forecast and TAM
  • 3. Forecast of revenues from Lidar for L3/L4
  • 4. Rising demand for SW for ADAS
  • 5. (SDV) Software-Defined Vehicles
  • 6. Subscriptions for ADAS
  • 7. AMOD (Automated-Mobility-on-Demand)
  • 8. Regulation for Level 3-4
  • 9. CarMetaverse
  • 10. Autonomous Deliveries
  • 11. Insurance for Level 3-4 Automated Driving
  • 12. Autonomous mining